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[sonycowboy]

Our thanks to Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter.

Top Selling Games By Platform For August 2007 (By Retail Sales $)

360 Title Publisher
1 MADDEN NFL 08 Electronic Arts
2 BIOSHOCK Take-Two Interactive
3 GUITAR HERO 2 W/ GUITAR Activision

PS2 Title Publisher
1 MADDEN NFL 08 Electronic Arts
2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR Activision
3 GUITAR HERO ENCORE: ROCKS THE 8Activision

PS3 Title Publisher
1 MADDEN NFL 08 Electronic Arts
2 WARHAWK W/ HEADSET BUNDLE Sony
3 LAIR Sony

Wii Title Publisher
1 PLAY W/ REMOTE Nintendo
2 METROID PRIME 3: CORRUPTION Nintendo
3 MARIO STRIKERS: CHARGED Nintendo

Handhelds Title Publisher
NDS POKEMON DIAMOND VERSION Nintendo
PSP MADDEN NFL 08 Electronic Arts
NDS HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: MAKIN THE C Disney Interactive Studios

Source: The NPD Group/Retail Track.



Total U.S. console software sales for August were $488 million, up 22% compared to last year’s $399 million, and much higher than our +12% estimate.

Next generation software sales were $352 million, $42 million above our estimate, while current generation software sales were $136 million, $1 million above our estimate. Current generation software sales were -46% (down $114 million), with a 33% decrease in PS2 software sales (in line with our expected -31%). Overall unit sales were up 5%, while overall ASPs increased by 16%. U.S. PC software sales for August were $58 million, down 4% compared to last year.

Year to date, industry sales are up 18.6%, tracking in line with our +18% estimate. Should console prices decline further this year, there may be some upside to our growth estimates.

There were 404,000 Wiis sold, compared to our 420,000 estimate; 277,000 Xbox 360s sold, compared to our 240,000 estimate; and 131,000 PS3s sold, compared to our 150,000 estimate.

Electronic Arts exceeded our expectations by 25%, Atari, Majesco, and Midway met our expectations,while Activision, Take-Two, THQ, and Ubisoft each came in below our expectations.

We expect mixed market reaction to the sales data. Overall growth this month was much higher than expected, however individual company sales results were mixed. However, overall software sales remain strong and we think that an upcoming price cut for hardware could help to alleviate concerns about slowing industry sales.

We would opportunistically add to positions in Activision, Electronic Arts, GameStop, THQ, and Ubisoft.

OVERVIEW

On Thursday afternoon, NPD released the August 2007 (four-week period ending September 1, 2007) U.S. console video game software retail sales figures. Total sales were $488 million, up 16% sequentially from July, and up 22% compared to August 2006.

Overall sales were much higher than our $445 million forecast (+12%) as next generation software sales came in much higher than our estimate. Year-to-date console software sales (excluding PC) are $3.80 billion compared to 2006 year-to-date sales of $3.11 billion (a year-over-year increase of 22%). Including PC sales, YTD software sales are up 19%. We expect 2007 growth (including PC) of +18%.

The average selling price of all games (console and handheld, current and next generation) in August was $38.49, up 16% over last August’s $33.15 ASP, with lower pricing on current generation and catalog software more than offset by higher pricing on next generation software. Unit sales were up 5%. Year-to-date ASPs are $34.42, up 10% compared with the prior year’s $31.18. There were 15 games selling more than 100,000 units apiece in August vs. nine last year.

The top 10 games captured 39% of dollar sales and 27% in unit sales in August versus 27% and 17% last month, reflecting higher demand for new releases (particularly Madden) this month. Next generation (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP, DS) software sales of $352 million were well above our $310 million forecast. Current generation (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA) software sales of $136 million were in line with our $135 million estimate. PS2 software sales were down 33% year-over-year, in line with our expectations, and still suggesting that relative strength on this platform may be sustainable through 2007. Our full-year forecast calls for PS2 software sales to decline by 30%, implying that declines over the rest of the year will approach 38%. Should sales of PS2 software continue at a slower rate of decline, there will likely be upside to our overall growth estimates for the year.

Demand for the PS3 year-to-date is tracking below our expectations, but hardware sales have been at higher levels the past two months due to the price cut in July, suggesting that demand may be sustainable at these higher levels. Xbox 360 sales got a boost this month from its August price cuts with sales up 63% from last month and well above those for the PS3.

Wii and DS sales remain strong as the #1 and #2 console sellers respectively. PS2 sales remained strong, though we note that it fell behind the Xbox 360 in sales this month for the first time since April 2006). We had expected to see a greater decline in PS2 hardware sales as sell-through for the next generation consoles picked up, but the legacy console keeps chugging along. Should Sony “surprise” us with a price cut for the PS2 next week (at the Tokyo Game Show) to $99, we think that sales could again rebound to the 250,000 monthly level.

August sales were driven by new releases Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 08 (PS2, PS3, Xbox, 360, GC, DS, PSP, PC, Wii) selling 2.25 million units, Take-Two’s Bioshock (360, PC) selling a combined 582,000 units, and Nintendo’s Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (Wii). Recent releases Activision’s Guitar Hero 2 and Nintendo’s Wii Play were also strong.

August 2007 console hardware sales as compared with our estimate are as follows: Wii sales of 404,000 units were slightly below our 420,000 unit forecast; PS3 sales of 131,000 were below our 150,000 unit forecast; Xbox 360 sales of 277,000 were higher than our 240,000 unit forecast; PS2 sales were slightly below our 225,000 unit forecast; PSP sales were well below our 210,000 unit forecast; DS sales were slightly below our 400,000 unit forecast; and GBA sales were slightly below with our 75,000 unit forecast.



Publisher Totals

Covered Companies Console Software Sales Y-o-Y Comparison (QTD Aug-07)

QTD % Change

Activision 157%
Atari -49%
Electronic Arts -2%
Majesco Entertainment 5%
Midway Games -36%
Take Two Interactive 47%
THQ -37%
Ubisoft Entertainment 36%



Activision

Releases during August: 8/29 I SPY: Fun House (DS).

Activision’s retail sales were up 37% sequentially from last month and were +147% over last August, compared to our estimate of +254% year-over-year. Guitar Hero Encore sold only 127,000 units, about half of our estimate of 300,000 units (-63% versus last month). Guitar Hero II, Shrek, Transformers, and Call of Duty led catalog sales. Activision’s ASP for all units sold was $46.79, +54% from last year’s $30.44 due to the high price of Guitar Hero II.

Atari

Releases during August: 8/14 DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: Tactics (PSP).

Atari’s retail sales were up 15% sequentially from last month and were -41% over last August, compared to our estimate of -55% year-over-year. New release DUNGEONS & DRAGONS sold better compared with our estimate for 10,000 units. Catalog sales were led by Test Drive Unlimited, Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2 and other Dragon Ball Z titles, and other various games. Atari’s ASP for all units sold was $25.39, +7% with last year’s $23.82.

Electronic Arts

Releases during August: 8/7 Boogie (Wii), 8/14 Madden NFL 08 (PS2, PS3, Xbox, 360, GC, DS, PSP, PC, Wii), 8/28

Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 08 (PS2, PS3, 360, DS, PSP, PC, Wii).

Electronic Arts’ retail sales were up 91% sequentially from last month and were +11% from last August, compared to our estimate of -11% year-over-year. New release Madden NFL 08 sold 2.25 million units, higher than our estimate of 1.9 million units. This figure was about 10% higher than last year, but the measurement period was an extra two weeks of sales compared with last year. We believe that Madden sales are tracking about 10% behind last year’s level in units, and about 10% ahead in dollar sales. NCAA Football 08 sold 157,000 units compared with our estimate of 300,000 units in its second month. Boogie sold less than half of our estimate of 150,000 units. The company’s ASP for all units sold was $47.56, +9% compared with last year’s $43.61 reflecting a higher mix of next generation sales (at higher price points) than last year.

Majesco Entertainment

Releases during August: 8/13 Operation: Vietnam (DS), 8/21 Turn It Around (DS), 8/28 The Wild West (DS).

Majesco’s retail sales were down 18% sequentially from last month and up 6% from last August, compared to our estimate of +11% year-over-year. Its value and mass market GBA and DS titles (particularly Cooking Mama and Brain Boost) led sales. Majesco’s ASP for all units sold was $17.08, -19% from last year’s $21.05, and still much lower than the industry average due to its large mix of budget GBA titles.

Midway Games

Releases during August: None.

Midway’s retail sales were down 31% sequentially from last month and were -57% over last August, compared to our estimate of -49% year-over-year. Hour of Victory, Mortal Kombat: Armageddon, Happy Feet, and other Mortal Kombat titles led catalog sales. Midway’s ASP for all units sold was $23.90, +13% from last year’s $21.20, reflecting a higher mix of sales of new releases at higher prices.

Take-Two Interactive

Releases during August: 8/21 Bioshock (360, PC), 8/27 Carnival Games (Wii)

Take-Two’s retail sales were up 51% sequentially from last month, and +145% over last August, compared to our estimate of +221% year-over-year. New release Bioshock sold 582,000 units on PC and Xbox 360, in line with our estimate of 600,000 units. All-Pro Football 2K8 sold poorly in its second month of release, and we believe that the game will soon be discounted. The Darkness, The BIGS, and MLB led catalog sales, but none performed well. Take- Two’s ASP for all units sold was $45.60, +77% from last year’s $25.82 due to Bioshock, which comprised 65% of total sales for the month.

THQ

Releases during August: 8/27 Moto GP 07 (360), 8/28 Stuntman: Ignition (360, PS2, PS3).

THQ’s retail sales were down 24% sequentially from last month and were -40% from last August, compared to our estimate of -5% year-over-year. New release Moto GP 07 and Stuntman sold only 25,000 combined units, significantly below our estimate of 100,000 units combined. Catalog sales were led by Ratatouille, WWE SmackDown vs. RAW 2007, and other WWE games. THQ’s ASP for all units sold was $23.64, -11% from last year’s $26.45 due a lower mix of new releases.

Ubisoft Entertainment

Releases during August: 8/21 Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2 (PS3, PSP), 8/21 The Settlers (DS).

Ubisoft’s retail sales were down 9% sequentially from last month and were +61% over last August, compared to our estimate of +90% year-over-year. Catalog sales were led by Rainbow Six: Vegas and Splinter Cell Double Agent, along with its pets games and a slew of other titles. Ubisoft’s ASP for all units sold was $34.57, +22% from last year’s $28.30 due a higher mix of new releases and next generation titles.

 

[gregor7777]

New release Bioshock sold 582,000 units on PC and Xbox 360

Not including Steam I would assume?

So 92,000 retail PC sales.

impressive.

 

[BrokenSymmetry]

U.S. PC software sales for August were $58 million, down 4% compared to last year.

Further slide in PC gaming, or shift to online purchases?

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

So everything outside #1 for the PS3 sold under 60,000?

 

[Tyrannical]

I was hoping they would slip in a prediction for September in there

 

[Son of Godzilla]

So everything outside #1 for the PS3 sold under 60,000?

Exactly what I was just wondering. That's... absurd. Shame Lair wasn't properly on sale for the month so it could be seen if the userbase is simply starved for games or just not interested in gaming.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

No shame in losing to GAF, Mike.

Again.

Bwahaha.

 

[gregor7777]

Further slide in PC gaming, or shift to online purchases?

I'm not in a position to say that the loss can be attributed to online sales, but certainly Steam sales have to be much higher this year. They've added a massive list of good games in the last year, and have quite the positive buzz going right now.

The last game I bought in a retail store for the PC was NWN2, and it will probably be my last.

 

[titiklabingapat]

No shame in losing to GAF, Mike.

Again.

Bwahaha.

HE PMs PEOPLE, you know.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Exactly what I was just wondering. That's... absurd. Shame Lair wasn't properly on sale for the month so it could be seen if the userbase is simply starved for games or just not interested in gaming.

That could be the worst news for Sony out of this whole thing. That means every multiplatform title besides Madden sold 50,000 or less, including multiplat debuts like the actually advertised Stuntman: Ignition and GRAW 2 (yikes). I think UbiSoft especially would be paying attention to that last one.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

HE PMs PEOPLE, you know.

and I explode people with judo throws. We all have our super powers, it seems.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

BTW 15 titles selling over 100k means goddamn fucking Two Worlds broke the barrier.

What
The
Fuck

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

BTW 15 titles selling over 100k means goddamn fucking Two Worlds broke the barrier.

What
The
Fuck

Double the sales of Blue Dragon. Never forget.

 

[gregor7777]

BTW 15 titles selling over 100k means goddamn fucking Two Worlds broke the barrier.

What
The
Fuck

I don't get the surprise....a game marketed as western style RPG on an Xbox console...

...of course it will sell. Sure it's shitty, but certain kinds of titles sell on certain consoles.

 

[sonycowboy]

That could be the worst news for Sony out of this whole thing. That means every multiplatform title besides Madden sold 50,000 or less, including multiplat debuts like the actually advertised Stuntman: Ignition and GRAW 2 (yikes). I think UbiSoft especially would be paying attention to that last one.

Stuntman isn't released for the PS3 until next week. And delayed releases are inherently going to do much, much less. Which is affecting the PS3 SW sales.

GRAW 2
Stuntman
Skate
Stranglehold
Rainbow Six
Oblivion

and the beat seems be continuing

PS3 has regularly been getting delayed releases due to apparent developer difficulty, especially with the unreal engine titles.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Stuntman isn't released for the PS3 until next week. And delayed releases are inherently going to do much, much less. Which is affecting the PS3 SW sales.

GRAW 2
Stuntman
Skate
Stranglehold
Rainbow Six
Oblivion

and the beat seems be continuing

PS3 has regularly been getting delayed releases due to apparent developer difficulty, especially with the unreal engine titles.

Ah, I see. I was just going by IGN's banked reviews. But yeah, PS3 is giving up timed exclusives like bus passes.

 

[FrankT]

Demand for the PS3 year-to-date is tracking below our expectations, but hardware sales have been at higher levels the past two months due to the price cut in July, suggesting that demand may be sustainable at these higher levels. Xbox 360 sales got a boost this month from its August price cuts with sales up 63% from last month and well above those for the PS3.

Sales are tracking downward month over month yet demand maybe sustainable at these higher levels? What? Overshot on the PS3 the last two months Pachter and you don't think it's going to be downward once again in September?

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Sales are tracking downward month over month yet demand maybe sustainable at these higher levels? What? Overshot on the PS3 the last two months Pachter and you don't think it's going to be downward once again in September?

Well, he did say "may"...

 

[sonycowboy]

Sales are tracking downward month over month yet demand maybe sustainable at these higher levels? What? Overshot on the PS3 the last two months Pachter and you don't think it's going to be downward once again in September?

Guys, please try to keep up with sales-age. Sometimes you embarrass yourselves. While it's modest, I think you're a bit disengenous to consider a 66% increase from June's sales level's to be downward month over month. July had essentially 4 weeks of a price drop, of course it was going to decline.

Month Sales / Week % change
June 19700
July 39750 102% (price drop here)
August 32650 -18%

 

[Graphics Horse]

Sales are tracking downward month over month yet demand maybe sustainable at these higher levels? What? Overshot on the PS3 the last two months Pachter and you don't think it's going to be downward once again in September?

I think he's just saying that the sales aren't low because of supply shortages. Stating the obvious I know.

 

[FrankT]

Guys, please try to keep up with sales-age. Sometimes you embarrass yourselves. While it's modest, I think you're a bit disengenous to consider a 66% increase from June's sales level's to be downward month over month. July had essentially 4 weeks of a price drop, of course it was going to decline.

Month Sales / Week % change
June 19700
July 39750 102% (price drop here)
August 32650 -18%

Heh, nothing to be embarrassed about whatsoever or "disengenous" for that matter. He overshot on the PS3 twice now and somehow he thinks it can maintain demand at higher levels once again. I don't think so. It's going to take more than just fools hope to increase sales from here on out this year. Most certainly tracking downward July-August, month over month.

 

[Shig]

Very impressive 360 sales.

PS3's situation in the US is getting dire. They really need a miracle ASAP, and I don't think MGS4 in early '08 is ASAP enough. If they don't have a huge hit for the holidays, they're looking at 3rd place for the long haul this gen.

Glad to be vindicated on Bioshock sales. I never had any doubt.

 

[sonycowboy]

Heh, nothing to be embarrassed about whatsoever. He overshot on the PS3 twice now and somehow he thinks it can maintain demand at higher levels once again. I don't think so. It's going to take more than just fools hope to increase sales from here on out this year.

Do you even understand his comment? He's simply stating that the level in August is "at higher levels" than back in May and June and that the PS3 may be able to maintain demand at these levels as opposed to falling down to the 20k / week again.

Basic principles here. We all know the PS3 is flailing and he's not saying it's not. Stop trying to put words in that aren't there because you can't read the copy correctly.

We all are supremely aware of the pecking order that's been established and that will reign over this holiday's sales.

 

[szaromir]

Heh, nothing to be embarrassed about whatsoever. He overshot on the PS3 twice now and somehow he thinks it can maintain demand at higher levels once again. I don't think so. It's going to take more than just fools hope to increase sales from here on out this year. Most certainly tracking downward July-August, month over month.

It will go a bit upward because of Holiday season. But if Nintendo has any units hidden in magazines and will push them to the market at the end of the year, then both 360 and Wii should skyrocket while PS3 will be lagging far behind.

 

[FrankT]

Do you even understand his comment? He's simply stating that the level in August is "at higher levels" than back in May and June and that the PS3 may be able to maintain demand at these levels as opposed to falling down to the 20k / week again.

Basic principles here. We all know the PS3 is flailing and he's not saying it's not. Stop trying to put words in that aren't there because you can't read the copy correctly.

We all are supremely aware of the pecking order that's been established and that will reign over this holiday's sales.

And what I'm saying is simple, that it is going to fall again, month over month, August to September. I very much understand what he is saying and for that matter disagree entirely.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

Heh, nothing to be embarrassed about whatsoever or "disengenous" for that matter. He overshot on the PS3 twice now and somehow he thinks it can maintain demand at higher levels once again. I don't think so. It's going to take more than just fools hope to increase sales from here on out this year. Most certainly tracking downward July-August, month over month.

It's stupid to think that the PS3 will fall back to sub 20k/week for the rest of the year. Hence, it will maintain higher levels of demand due to the price cut.

 

[sonycowboy]

And what I'm saying is simple, that it is going to fall again, month over month, August to September. I very much understand what he is saying and for that matter disagree entirely.

I'm mostly busting you balls :lol , but answer me this:

Do you expect the PS3 to fall below 30k/week in September? That is you'd predict sales below 150k? Certainly a possiblitity, but to out of hand dismiss that it's may well hit 150k for the month as confidently as you are, seems a bit over the top.

 

[FrankT]

It's stupid to think that the PS3 will fall back to sub 20k/week for the rest of the year. Hence, it will maintain higher levels of demand due to the price cut.

I think it's going to be quite close to 20-25K for September of course closer to Christmas yea it's gonna bump up, but I'm saying not so soon.

I'm mostly busting you balls :lol , but answer me this:

Do you expect the PS3 to fall below 30k/week in September? That is you'd predict sales below 150k? Certainly a possiblitity, but to out of hand dismiss that it's may well hit 150k for the month as confidently as you are, seems a bit over the top.

Yes, I see sells below 150K for September even with a 5 week tracking if that is correct.

Pretty easy to come that conclusion though;

130K for August, 4 weeks. At constant rate for 5 weeks in Septmeber that would be 162.5K times 18% loss month over month, 29k. 162.5K-29k= 133.5k. And that is to say there is not a bigger loss month over month. 26k a week.

 

[Evlar]

That's pretty impressive analysis, and his software predictions were uncanny. Interesting stuff.

It's interesting how dependent Take-Two was on Bioshock. Without the success of that title they would have been completely inert last month. That's quite a gamble, and I'm glad it paid off for them.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Double the sales of Blue Dragon. Never forget.

You just blew my feeble mind.

 

[Chû Totoro]

There's too many "%" and "000"
That's not really an analysis, those are factual numbers.

The only thing he's doing is basic math with those numbers :

Ok so this year's $488 million divided by last year’s $399 million = 1.223 wich means up 22% (much higher than our +12% estimate because 22% >12%)

Wow !

Some NeoGAF users have so much more talent than him to describe and explain those numbers (and that's why i'm in this thread : i like to see people exchanging their opinions on the industry).

At least we have a lot of information here and i won't have to take my calculator...

 

[AnimeTheme]

Yes, I see sells below 150K for September even with a 5 week tracking if that is correct.

Pretty easy to come that conclusion though;

130K for August, 4 weeks. At constant rate for 5 weeks in Septmeber that would be 162.5K times 18% loss month over month, 29k. 162.5K-29k= 133.5k. And that is to say there is not a bigger loss month over month. 26k a week.

Just 1 month after the price-cut month (July) and you can already see the "18% loss month over month" crap, and what, perhaps even bigger loss? :lol I like how you oversimplifying everything and ignore all other factors.

I am waiting to see if PS3 really stays at the 130k level next month (with an extra week tracked).

 

[FrankT]

Just 1 month after the price-cut month (July) and you can already see the "18% loss month over month" crap, and what, perhaps even bigger loss? :lol I like how you oversimplifying everything and ignore all other factors.

I am waiting to see if PS3 really stays at the 130k level next month (with an extra week tracked).

Oversimplifying nothing, 18% is the loss month over month July-August, simple extrapolation. I would love to know all these "other facts". The only curveball I see is like Pachter mentioned in his other note, the 40GB PS3@$399.

 

[The Faceless Master]

BTW 15 titles selling over 100k means goddamn fucking Two Worlds broke the barrier.

What
The
Fuck

it also means Madden 360 + Xbox > Madden PS3 + PS2

 

[Lord Error]

Shame Lair wasn't properly on sale for the month so it could be seen if the userbase is simply starved for games or just not interested in gaming.

Why would anyone, starved for games or not, spend money on Lair, of all things?

 

[huntingzibod]

IMHO Sony need to quit boasting about Blu-Ray, Cell, and Convergence - and just concentrate on getting good games onto the PS3.

So far, I think Blu-Ray and the Cell have actually harmed the Ps3 more than helped it.

The cost of the system is off putting, and CELL is just causing headaches in getting games to go gold.
Developers either have to end up with a good looking, but short or terrible game (Lair, Heavenly Sword), or , if multi-platform, delays - or worse looking versions. This harms game sales. Look at Lair - a hotly anticipated game that got terrible reviews - so it sold poorly.

Rumors of a 40gig model are a bit ridiculous. Why would Sony be able to cut $200 from the 80 gig model (which it would be based on), by having a smaller hard drive? If they could afford to cut the price that much now, they would have already done that - rather than 'value adding'.


I think Sony will be a distant 3rd this Christmas with the Ps3, - but next year they need to concentrate on making the PS3 compelling.

My action plan:
1. Stop this crap-talk, such as 'Can only be done on Blu-Ray/Cell'. It helps nobody, and when games come out looking better on the 360 without any high-capacity drives, it just makes you look silly.
2. Sign up more Playstation Network games developers - and make it the best experience ever - cheap, fun games is what people want. Put proper demos on there of your arcade games too!
3. Get your Rumble back. Now.
4. Improve the Playstation store interface. Right now it looks like a crappy web-page. Look at iTunes for inspiration.
5. Get the PS3 to $350 ASAP. Mid 2008 at latest. At least then you'll start getting some serious sales.
6. Make sure your 3rd parties don't accidentally slip about 360 versions of their games! If you want exclusives, you have to do more than offer marketing support!
7. Include an HDMI lead with every PS3!!!
8. Get TV shows and Movies onto the PS3 via PSN!
9. Make a PC version of Home - so you can show them how compelling it is, and get some cross platform movement!
10. Stop being so arrogant!

 

[Beer Monkey]

re: Blue Dragon and Two Worlds (sigh) sales, I think the successes of Bioware, Bethesda, and even WoW are changing expectations here as to how RPGs should play. Of course, hardcore JRPG fans will remain but you may see their numbers reduce. Look at the shift in racing fans away from the traditional Japanese arcade racers like Ridge Racer; changes in taste can happen in other genres as well.

Regarding Madden selling more for Xbox console family versus Playstation console family, maybe that will finally put to rest all this talk that the PS2 fans are all just waiting around to eventually get another Playstation system. You can't really keep pretending that nobody is switching brands.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Guys, please try to keep up with sales-age. Sometimes you embarrass yourselves. While it's modest, I think you're a bit disengenous to consider a 66% increase from June's sales level's to be downward month over month.

But... it is. I think the problem is the way Pachter has it written is that "these higher levels" reads like it include both July and August. The August numbers are believable as a possible post-boom sustainable level, but including the July boom isn't.

 

[Nolan.]

Next generation software sales were $352 million, $42 million above our estimate, while current generation software sales were $136 million, $1 million above our estimate. Current generation software sales were -46% (down $114 million), with a 33% decrease in PS2 software sales (in line with our expected -31%).

Interesting maybe they're finally dying down and next gen (current gen) is starting to pick up.?

Take-Two’s Bioshock (360, PC) selling a combined 582,000 units

Even more interesting.

 

[wonderkins]

Thanks Mr. Pachter! Good read about the various publishers. Moreso, others' commentary; it's interesting to read people's take. This holiday should be pretty big for the industry; fingers-crossed any industry folk get a big bonus this holiday.

So, I'm going to fly off-topic for a moment:

Down at the local Gamestop, pre-orders for Rock Band seem to mirror most games; slow and steady until, presumably, closer to release date. However, the drum peripheral is being reserved quickly, in comparison, for both systems. If you were thinking, like me, of getting the game and just the drum peripheral, I'd think about reserving your drum set now. Unfortunately, I wouldn't doubt that BB or CC, or whoever your major retailer is, will offer some tchotkes or bonus. Run the gauntlet, or don't.

I didn't ask about the $2,000,000 bundle with your own tour bus, hotel suite, and rider. And the obvious caveat that this is in podunk Oregon.

 

[artist]

IMHO Sony need to quit boasting about Blu-Ray, Cell, and Convergence - and just concentrate on getting good games onto the PS3.

So far, I think Blu-Ray and the Cell have actually harmed the Ps3 more than helped it.

The cost of the system is off putting, and CELL is just causing headaches in getting games to go gold.
Developers either have to end up with a good looking, but short or terrible game (Lair, Heavenly Sword), or , if multi-platform, delays - or worse looking versions. This harms game sales. Look at Lair - a hotly anticipated game that got terrible reviews - so it sold poorly.

Rumors of a 40gig model are a bit ridiculous. Why would Sony be able to cut $200 from the 80 gig model (which it would be based on), by having a smaller hard drive? If they could afford to cut the price that much now, they would have already done that - rather than 'value adding'.


I think Sony will be a distant 3rd this Christmas with the Ps3, - but next year they need to concentrate on making the PS3 compelling.

My action plan:
1. Stop this crap-talk, such as 'Can only be done on Blu-Ray/Cell'. It helps nobody, and when games come out looking better on the 360 without any high-capacity drives, it just makes you look silly.
2. Sign up more Playstation Network games developers - and make it the best experience ever - cheap, fun games is what people want. Put proper demos on there of your arcade games too!
3. Get your Rumble back. Now.
4. Improve the Playstation store interface. Right now it looks like a crappy web-page. Look at iTunes for inspiration.
5. Get the PS3 to $350 ASAP. Mid 2008 at latest. At least then you'll start getting some serious sales.
6. Make sure your 3rd parties don't accidentally slip about 360 versions of their games! If you want exclusives, you have to do more than offer marketing support!
7. Include an HDMI lead with every PS3!!!
8. Get TV shows and Movies onto the PS3 via PSN!
9. Make a PC version of Home - so you can show them how compelling it is, and get some cross platform movement!
10. Stop being so arrogant!

8. Its in the pipeline, or so we've heard ..
9. Dont see the point.

 

[Evlar]

Concerning the new baseline sales rate for PS3: From the historical data I'm seeing the PED of home consoles is around -2.0 with some variability between -1.7 and -2.3. Assuming PS3 follows this trend the new baseline should eventually stabilize at approx. 26.6k hardware units per week at the $499 price, up from 20k per week at $599. If this proves true in the month of September I would anticipate ~133k in PS3 sales. Pachter looks to be rather optimistic toward PS3, which could be justified by expecting that the post-price drop sales spike hasn't yet completely dampened out, or that Pachter believes products in PS3's price range will be more elastic regarding price than other, cheaper consoles have been in the past.

This is an idealization and other factors can naturally affect sales, like a shortage in supply of the $499 SKU or a spike in demand for the competition. Naturally if PS3 falls short of that 133k prediction I will blame Wii Fit Halo 3.

 

[FrankT]

Concerning the new baseline sales rate for PS3: From the historical data I'm seeing the PED of home consoles is around -2.0 with some variability between -1.7 and -2.3. Assuming PS3 follows this trend the new baseline should eventually stabilize at approx. 26.6k hardware units per week at the $499 price, up from 20k per week at $599. If this proves true in the month of September I would anticipate ~133k in PS3 sales. Pachter looks to be rather optimistic toward PS3, which could be justified by expecting that the post-price drop sales spike hasn't yet completely dampened out, or that Pachter believes products in PS3's price range will be more elastic regarding price than other, cheaper consoles have been in the past.

This is an idealization and other factors can naturally affect sales, like a shortage in supply of the $499 SKU or a spike in demand for the competition. Naturally if PS3 falls short of that 133k prediction I will blame Wii Fit Halo 3.

133K for September, check.
26K a week, check.

Not so crazy after all. I also agree with the Halo 3 theory as well. That should be taken in account because on the short term it only has the potential to drive 360 sells while dampening potential PS3 sells. Not necessarily going to happen, but for some it could be a deal breaker this month.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Concerning the new baseline sales rate for PS3: From the historical data I'm seeing the PED of home consoles is around -2.0 with some variability between -1.7 and -2.3. Assuming PS3 follows this trend the new baseline should eventually stabilize at approx. 26.6k hardware units per week at the $499 price, up from 20k per week at $599. If this proves true in the month of September I would anticipate ~133k in PS3 sales. Pachter looks to be rather optimistic toward PS3, which could be justified by expecting that the post-price drop sales spike hasn't yet completely dampened out, or that Pachter believes products in PS3's price range will be more elastic regarding price than other, cheaper consoles have been in the past.

This is an idealization and other factors can naturally affect sales, like a shortage in supply of the $499 SKU or a spike in demand for the competition. Naturally if PS3 falls short of that 133k prediction I will blame Wii Fit Halo 3.

What's a PED?

 

[sonycowboy]

What's a PED?

price elasticity of demand.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_elasticity_of_demand

I haven't found to be so well defined for VG games, but I'll check my historical data to see if it jives. Also, I'm seeing that the price drop of 16%, caused a jump of 100%, down to 66%.

So, a PED of 2.0 would mean a 32% sustained sales increase. Or 130k for a 5 week month as has been stated. But, we're going to see some variability as the holidays ramp up as well as the releases.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

i believe MS purposely set up the price drop bomb with madden to HELP sell halo 3. 360 madden outselling ps2 madden almost proves that EA and MS got some old ps2 users to jump in which inturn helps MS this month with halo 3. its like they were greasing eachother palms purposely. With that said the 360 and Halo 3 should see a higher than expected jump with its newfound fans.