Goblet of Fire beat it by about 50 million
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Place your bets: Age of Ultron vs The Force Awakens
- Thread starter Malyse
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Goblet of Fire beat it by about 50 million
Domestic box office is going to be fairly irrelevant in this battle. Is there evidence that the Star Wars prequels really hurt the brand overseas? Shitty Pirates and Transformers movies didn't stop the fourth films from getting higher grosses than ever overseas. Same goes for the X-Men Franchise.
I agree, neither film is going to out gross the other by hundreds of millions on the domestic front. OS gross will have a larger impact.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I don't think Star Wars will make 200 mil in its opening weekend.
I do think it might be the first movie to make over 100 mil for two consecutive weekends, though.
(that hasn't happened, right? I'm pretty sure it hasn't)
edit: The Avengers did it, actually.
I do think it might be the first movie to make over 100 mil for two consecutive weekends, though.
(that hasn't happened, right? I'm pretty sure it hasn't)
edit: The Avengers did it, actually.
Frank Serpico
Banned
I'll say Star Wars, I have no interest in the avengers but I'm curious to see a non George Lucas Star Wars film
I don't think Star Wars will make 200 mil in its opening weekend.
I do think it might be the first movie to make over 100 mil for two consecutive weekends, though.
(that hasn't happened, right? I'm pretty sure it hasn't)
edit: The Avengers did it, actually.
Avengers 1.
Avatar released in Xmas and barely had week to week drops.I don't think Star Wars will make 200 mil in its opening weekend.
I do think it might be the first movie to make over 100 mil for two consecutive weekends, though.
(that hasn't happened, right? I'm pretty sure it hasn't)
edit: The Avengers did it, actually.
Maybe Star wars will follow that trend
Just curious, why do people have so much faith in J.J. Abrams?
I'm fairly certain Whedon has a better track record than him, and he's more experienced when it comes to their respective franchise.
For which film I think will be better (for me); I don't have particularly high amount of faith in Star Wars, but if Age of Ultron is as mediocre as The Avengers (first one), then it's a low standard to beat for Star Wars in my humble opinion.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Avatar released in Xmas and barely had week to week drops.
Maybe Star wars will follow that trend
I'm thinking it might, honestly. It's possible 2nd weekend (Christmas weekend) might make more than opening weekend, and I think once we get into January it's possible the weekends might actually INCREASE occasionally.
I think both Titanic and Avatar saw weekend-to-weekend increases a few times during their run, right?
edit: Avatar had three weekend-to-weekend increases before it dropped out of the top 10. Titanic did that seven times.
Of course, this is very dependent on the movie being really good, with the word-of-mouth that comes along with that. It's still VERY much up in the air whether that's even on the table.
TheKaeptain
Banned
"No way Avengers beats Dark Knight Rises! It's the end of Nolan's Batman trilogy!"
"No way Iron Man 3 beats Man of Steel! You see that trailer?!"
"Guardians? Pfft, Marvels first flop!"
Star Wars....
Here's the thing you and your Marvel friends are ignoring: Star Wars is a different monster when compared to those other films. It shaped the modern pop culture scene.
Prequels did too much damage, and abrams dissapointed me with star trek so I'm going with avengers. Avengers will be the better movie and have the better box office.
The last SW movie made more than GOTG or Cap 2. That was 10 years ago in a world where WW gross was much smaller.
Avatar released in Xmas and barely had week to week drops.
Maybe Star wars will follow that trend
Probably not. Avatar had building word of mouth which lead to those drops. Everyone knows what Star Wars is, and in 5 months, everyone will know it releases on Dec 18th thanks to a $100M ad campaign.
EDIT: I misread your post. Thought you were saying weekend to weekend drops. I think those will be sizable (but better than typical for blockbusters). However, the holiday weekdays will make up for it in weeks 2 and 3.
I'm thinking it might, honestly. It's possible 2nd weekend (Christmas weekend) might make more than opening weekend, and I think once we get into January it's possible the weekends might actually INCREASE occasionally.
I think both Titanic and Avatar saw weekend-to-weekend increases a few times during their run, right?
Makes much more sense to compare this to Return of the King (if reviews/WOM is good) than either of those films.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Makes much more sense to compare this to Return of the King (if reviews/WOM is good) than either of those films.
Return of the King is probably a closer comparison, yeah. And that had two weekend-to-weekend increases before it fell out of the top 10.
Here's the thing you and your Marvel friends are ignoring: Star Wars is a different monster when compared to those other films. It shaped the modern pop culture scene.
I'm well aware of Star Wars "cultural importance", which is why it has a shot at 1.4 billion.
I'm also aware that Episode 1 had much, MUCH more "cultural importance" hype behind it, that fans were eagerly awaiting it far more than VII. Only made a billion...
TheKaeptain
Banned
I'm well aware of Star Wars "cultural importance", which is why it has a shot at 1.4 billion.
I'm also aware that Episode 1 had much, MUCH more "cultural importance" hype behind it, that fans were eagerly awaiting it far more than VII. Only made a billion...
in 1999.
in 1999.
It was $920M or so originally, but ya, that was good enough for second or third of all time at that point depending on what total you used for Jurassic Park which basically made the same amount.
1999. You know how much that is in today's market??I'm well aware of Star Wars "cultural importance", which is why it has a shot at 1.4 billion.
I'm also aware that Episode 1 had much, MUCH more "cultural importance" hype behind it, that fans were eagerly awaiting it far more than VII. Only made a billion...
in 1999.
90s didn't stop Titanic(1997). Or Jurassic Park(1993)
1999. You know how much that is in today's market??
You have tried to argue this before.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
90s didn't stop Titanic.
The 30s didn't stop Gone With the Wind, I guess?
You have tried to argue this before.
Pretty sure both of you have done this do-si-do in this specific thread at least once already, too.
So far as the Return of the King comparison goes, I do wonder if it'll make a difference that Return of the King was a trilogy-closer (and had a few screenings removed due to the length of the film) versus Force Awakens being a trilogy starter.
"No way Avengers beats Dark Knight Rises! It's the end of Nolan's Batman trilogy!"
"No way Iron Man 3 beats Man of Steel! You see that trailer?!"
"Guardians? Pfft, Marvels first flop!"
Star Wars....
I'm sticking with Age of Ultron outgrossing EPVII for now but these comparisons make little sense in this discussion.
giancarlo123x
Banned
Star Wars. It´s had a nice break from the big screen, Its going to make ridiculous bank.
Avengers will make the most money.
Marvel has officially converted me. I didn't think Avengers would do better than TDKR so easily, I didn't think Guardians would be such a massive success, I didn't think Iron Man 3 would have such a monster opening weekend, I didn't think Winter Soldier would have such critical acclaim.
Fuck it.
I'm through underestimating Marvel.
Age of Ultron will open to $220 million, will gross at least $700 million domestically, at least 1.3 billion overseas, will do at least 2 billion worldwide
Marvel has officially converted me. I didn't think Avengers would do better than TDKR so easily, I didn't think Guardians would be such a massive success, I didn't think Iron Man 3 would have such a monster opening weekend, I didn't think Winter Soldier would have such critical acclaim.
Fuck it.
I'm through underestimating Marvel.
Age of Ultron will open to $220 million, will gross at least $700 million domestically, at least 1.3 billion overseas, will do at least 2 billion worldwide
True Savior
Member
Will Star Wars be released in 3d too ?
"No way Avengers beats Dark Knight Rises! It's the end of Nolan's Batman trilogy!"
"No way Iron Man 3 beats Man of Steel! You see that trailer?!"
"Guardians? Pfft, Marvels first flop!"
Star Wars....
Who seriously thought MoS would top IM3?
90s didn't stop Titanic(1997). Or Jurassic Park(1993)
Actually it did. It took the 3D release in order for it to top 1B (Jurassic Park).
Dreams-Visions
Member
IMO: there is a lot of crossover in the fanbases. I think most of the same people who want to see Ultron want to see Star Wars. Further, I think the potential audience for Star Wars extends further than Ultron, as it will likely be the slightly more mature film and will appeal to an older demographic just as much as the younger one.
Star Wars is one of the all-time great movie franchises, and its brand continues to make huge amounts of money despite not having a critically-acclaimed film since the mid 1980s. There is a huge fanbase that wants nothing more than a Star Wars film worthy of the brand and it seems like its new caretakers have a feel for what Star Wars is to its audience and should become going forward.
If Star Wars delivers with critical acclaim and has a 3D and an IMAX version, it will be the biggest box office opening in history. 3D and IMAX because that's where the biggest bucks are. Ultron will most certainly have both. If Star Wars doesn't have 3D, a lot of money will have been left on the table.
Lots will ride on the quality of the SW film. If it's the film people are hoping for, a new standard will be set.
Star Wars is one of the all-time great movie franchises, and its brand continues to make huge amounts of money despite not having a critically-acclaimed film since the mid 1980s. There is a huge fanbase that wants nothing more than a Star Wars film worthy of the brand and it seems like its new caretakers have a feel for what Star Wars is to its audience and should become going forward.
If Star Wars delivers with critical acclaim and has a 3D and an IMAX version, it will be the biggest box office opening in history. 3D and IMAX because that's where the biggest bucks are. Ultron will most certainly have both. If Star Wars doesn't have 3D, a lot of money will have been left on the table.
Lots will ride on the quality of the SW film. If it's the film people are hoping for, a new standard will be set.
1999. You know how much that is in today's market??
1999 Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace
Worldwide gross (Millions) $1,027.0
Worldwide Gross In Inflation Adjusted 2013 Dollars (Millions) $1,434.9
2012 Marvels The Avengers
Worldwide gross (Millions) $1,511.8
Worldwide Gross In Inflation Adjusted 2013 Dollars (Millions) $1,532.7
TheKaeptain
Banned
It's like BLACKLAC doesn't understand how markets change.
Also, I don't buy the SW will make less WW argument. They'll make about the same. 53% of ep1 final gross came from WW numbers and this was before WW blew up. Ep3's WW was 55%. GotG is at 57% and the first Avengers is at 59%.
Also, I don't buy the SW will make less WW argument. They'll make about the same. 53% of ep1 final gross came from WW numbers and this was before WW blew up. Ep3's WW was 55%. GotG is at 57% and the first Avengers is at 59%.
gutter_trash
Banned
He was nominated for an Academy Award for Best Actor in The Hurt Locker.
and Nicholas Cage won Best Actor for acting like an SNL drunk guy
TarpitCarnivore
Member
If you want to compare it further, you could argue JJ Abrams has the better mainstream success based on number of seasons per show.
True Savior
Member
1999 Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace
Worldwide gross (Millions) $1,027.0
Worldwide Gross In Inflation Adjusted 2013 Dollars (Millions) $1,434.9
2012 Marvel’s The Avengers
Worldwide gross (Millions) $1,511.8
Worldwide Gross In Inflation Adjusted 2013 Dollars (Millions) $1,532.7
3d dude.
3d.
Also worldwide gross inflation based on todays currency is probably the dumbest thing i read on box office reports.
There is only one real metric. Tickets sold. This dollars stuff is plain ridiculous.
It's like BLACKLAC doesn't understand how markets change.
And what evidence do you have that it changed?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Adjusting for inflation is mostly useless, especially if we're looking at today's markets/viewing habits. Plus, adjusting for inflation isn't even necessarily all that accurate.
C'mon man.
And what evidence do you have that it changed?
C'mon man.
You don't have to go to theatres anymore to watch moviesAnd what evidence do you have that it changed?
Now movies are guaranteed to release on bluray/netflix/redbox/cable like four months after release.
TheKaeptain
Banned
Avengers will make the most money.
Marvel has officially converted me. I didn't think Avengers would do better than TDKR so easily, I didn't think Guardians would be such a massive success, I didn't think Iron Man 3 would have such a monster opening weekend, I didn't think Winter Soldier would have such critical acclaim.
Fuck it.
I'm through underestimating Marvel.
Age of Ultron will open to $220 million, will gross at least $700 million domestically, at least 1.3 billion overseas, will do at least 2 billion worldwide
If GotG was a massive success at $774,176,600 then a movie that made $848,754,768, around 10 years ago must be something special right?
C'mon man.
4 superhero films broke 700 million ww last year, even that terrible ASM2...
I don't see the market shifting from superhero films for awhile.
Didn't stop Titanic from earning more than the top grossing 3D movie (and coincidentally the highest grossing film of all time) after being adjusted for inflation.3d dude.
3d.
1997 Titanic
Worldwide gross (Millions) $2,185.4
Worldwide Gross In Inflation Adjusted 2013 Dollars (Millions) $3,169.5
2009 Avatar
Worldwide gross (Millions) $2,782.3
Worldwide Gross In Inflation Adjusted 2013 Dollars (Millions) $3,018.8
Bobby Roberts
Banned
4 superhero films broke 700 million ww last year, even that terrible ASM2...
I don't see the market shifting from superhero films for awhile.
That's not the "market shift" anyone is talking about, though. Nobody's suggesting the increase in box-office reciepts worldwide has anything to do with more of a specific genre of film being made.
I mean, do you think movies make more money than they ever have before simply because there's more superheroes in them? Or do you think there's a lot more to it than that?
Actually it did. It took the 3D release in order for it to top 1B (Jurassic Park).
Same was true with Star Wars. $103M of that $1.027B came from the 3D re-release.
Your overconfidence is your weaknessIt's like BLACKLAC doesn't understand how markets change.
Also, I don't buy the SW will make less WW argument. They'll make about the same. 53% of ep1 final gross came from WW numbers and this was before WW blew up. Ep3's WW was 55%. GotG is at 57% and the first Avengers is at 59%.
That's not the "market shift" anyone is talking about, though. Nobody's suggesting the increase in box-office reciepts worldwide has anything to do with more of a specific genre of film being made.
Ah... :/
True Savior
Member
Adjusting for inflation is mostly useless, especially if we're looking at today's markets/viewing habits. Plus, adjusting for inflation isn't even necessarily all that accurate.
It's mathematically completely inaccurate. Not only the dollar inflation is completely different than other countries inflation , the currency value of each coin is extremely volatile throughout the time.
Even doing what studios do every week which is converting the gross for dollars depending on the currency of the value of that week , and than adding up is dumb. Too dumb to be acceptable that people end up discussing and comparing this stuff.
Give us tickets sold !!!! Every studio has this information. Every one.
Didn't stop Titanic from earning more than the top grossing 3D movie (and coincidentally the highest grossing film of all time) after being adjusted for inflation.
The ticket is more expensive. You are comparing apples and oranges.
Titanic sold way more than Avatar. Tickets.
Dr. Feel Good
Banned
Avengers BO > Star Wars BO
Star wars RT > Avengers RT
Star wars RT > Avengers RT
Same was true with Star Wars. $103M of that $1.027B came from the 3D re-release.
The only true billion dollar film from the 90s is Titanic.
TheKaeptain
Banned
Your overconfidence is your weakness
I think they will make the same with SW barely beating AoU out because of it's release date.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Give us tickets sold !!!! Every studio has this information. Every one.
No shit, right?
But this box-office horserace has become such a vital component to the marketing, that switching back to the more accurate tickets sold method not only wipes that whole avenue out, but it highlights just how many FEWER tickets are being sold to movies now than decades previous, and the industry doesn't want people to notice the steady decline in theater attendance.
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