-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF Thread of PRESIDENT OBAMA Checkin' Off His List
- Thread starter PantherLotus
- Start date
- Status
Anticitizen One
Banned
im confused I thought the senate already did the final 60 vote for the healthcare bill and the only thing that remains is to vote on the merged bill that would only require 50 votes. Did I misunderstand?
Wow @ the sudden shift to toss-up in the R2K/Kos poll. They are pretty reliable.
This bill is growing very unpopular. Just the people I hear in public talking about it alone (not to mention co-workers). It's a tough, tough sell, and all of this wasted time did not bode well for the Democrats.
Loved one of my co-workers raising her voice on a break talking about how the bill is socialism
Of course, a mandate on private insurance with no alternative makes it easy to label as such if you are stupid. Then again, the public option was apparently socialism, too! :lol
And, yes, Biden is right on the mark. You shouldn't have to need a 60 vote supermajority to barely pass something. Once you hit 50 or so you should have some breathing room. It's so stressful.
Fuck the Senate.
This bill is growing very unpopular. Just the people I hear in public talking about it alone (not to mention co-workers). It's a tough, tough sell, and all of this wasted time did not bode well for the Democrats.
Loved one of my co-workers raising her voice on a break talking about how the bill is socialism
Of course, a mandate on private insurance with no alternative makes it easy to label as such if you are stupid. Then again, the public option was apparently socialism, too! :lol
And, yes, Biden is right on the mark. You shouldn't have to need a 60 vote supermajority to barely pass something. Once you hit 50 or so you should have some breathing room. It's so stressful.
Fuck the Senate.
GhaleonEB said:
There is no realistic way that happens and no article I've read citing dems thinks that strategy is viable. The house accepting the Senate bill looks like the only somewhat realistic option.
Every article I've read on the subject pointed to Brown taking the seat within days of the election, which it now looks like won't happen. That changes things. I expect they're working on multiple tracks right now.schuelma said:
We'll see.
Yes. The merged bill can be (and will be) filibustered.Anticitizen One said:
GhaleonEB said:
Every article I saw referenced the 10 day period, and the article you linked makes it seem like the extra 5 days is not required and only used if the race is close and provisional ballot scrutiny is needed.
O....kay? Most of what I read operated on a different schedule. Obviously there has been a range of reporting on the subject.schuelma said:
I've seen multiple scenarios mapped out, and it's likely several are being pursued in tandem. It does look from TPM's reporting that there is a longer window than previously thought from the special election to the date the certificate of election is issued. Which may well change the calculus, given the timetables involved.
So as I said: we'll see. Let's get through the election first.
At this point they either pass the Senate version or literally waste a year and start the lame duck party way too early.
Given their track record of stopping right at the finish line to stick their fingers up their ass over the past few months, I sadly have no confidence in Democratic leadership to actually pass this trainwreck of a bill. Zero. In fact, if Brown wins I can easily see the blue dogs completely jumping ship.
The GOP is gonna use this very possible victory as a blueprint for the entire Northeast.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Bluedogs will jump ship after Croakly loses. I just don't see them taking another tough vote for Obama on this, after a democrat loss in MA. Plus I don't know whether Pelosi would even be enthused about this.
And smh @ the White House remembering reconciliation after all this time.
And smh @ the White House remembering reconciliation after all this time.
Lazy vs Crazy
Member
Hope the dems pick a completely ineffectual candidate in the primaries, and pour every dollar of republican money into a single candidate? This is a singular situation, and even then Brown probably won't win.Diablos said:
Agreed 110%.PhoenixDark said:
Croakley, lol
The GOP will have one of the best talking points ever: "We killed health care reform by winning Ted Kennedy's seat." To us liberals, that's a nightmare. Something that could never happen.
It's a good thing Teddy kicked the bucket instead of retiring first; I don't know if he'd have been able to handle this.
they would have to get it done tonight. Appointed senators term ends when the election is over in Massachusetts.Y2Kev said:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/barnes-massachusetts-senatorial-race-and-obamacare
Tamanon said:
You serious? If so, its because it fits the narrative that the Democrats are ALL GOING TO DIE in 2010 so stay turned to the 24 hours news stations for up-to-the-minute updates on the massacres.
Media doesn't cover a story, or report news. They pick a theme, and then work to support it.
The Librarian
Banned
Diablos likes to panic.Tamanon said:
The Chosen One
Member
LOL @ Ed Shultz blatant shilling for Coakley.
Yep, polls are tightening, Dems are flipping out nationally, strategists are apparently internally admitting they are doomed, and the WH is scrambling to figure out a way to pass HCR if Brown wins all because I, Diablos, am concerned (although not as much as you think I am; the shock of Brown's gains in polling is old news, now I'm just pissed).Dax01 said:
I'm gonna end the wars next, just you watch!
cartoon_soldier
Member
So, has Coakley done anything to tell people why they should elect her other than "I will follow Kennedy?"
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
cartoon_soldier said:
She's hardly gone even that far. Coakley has to be the biggest fucking wallflower they could have put up.
The Librarian
Banned
Seriously. If Coakley wins tomorrow, I'm putting Diablos on my ignore list. The dude gives unnecessary things to worry about in this thread.besada said:
cartoon_soldier
Member
DOO13ER said:
Democrats are fucking Idiots.
While do think Dems will lose seat in November, I don't think we can use this special election as a definitive "preview" of what's to come. For everything I've read about the race, Coakely's bad campaign is far more of a factor as to why she's in her current state than national mood. No campaigning for months after the primary, gaffs, bad tv ads and lackluster debate performance are far more of a factor, I'd argue.
Jason's Ultimatum
Member
Coakley isn't going to win, so don't get your hopes up.
Anyway, are there any polling information about what issues are important to voters in MA? Could it be health care reform? My guess is that MA isn't happy with their mandate, and do not like the idea of a federal mandate.
Also, if the failure of health care reform in the 90s prove anything, it's that DEMs will not be able to blame the right. It didn't work then, and the right was able to win congress due to the failure.
Anyway, are there any polling information about what issues are important to voters in MA? Could it be health care reform? My guess is that MA isn't happy with their mandate, and do not like the idea of a federal mandate.
Also, if the failure of health care reform in the 90s prove anything, it's that DEMs will not be able to blame the right. It didn't work then, and the right was able to win congress due to the failure.
If Coakley loses, I think it would be a pretty reasonable reaction to panic. And I say this as someone who hates chicken littles. But her loss would be a gigantic omelet on Obama's face, a signal to the blue dogs to bail out (even though their days are already numbered), and probably a significant neutering of Obama's domestic agenda. This is a big deal, and I think panicking if she loses is reasonable. And I don't usually do so!
He's a perpetual worry wort. And it is indeed tiresome.Dax01 said:
But in this particular case, he has reason to worry. The polling released today combined with the higher level of pessimism within the White House (as reported today by HuffPo) paint a pretty grim picture. Coakley fucked up her campaign about every possible way one could imagine, and then came up with a few new ones.
BTW, State of the Union address on the 27th. There was some speculation that Obama would push it to the week after so he could sign the health bill first, but they seem to have given up on that. Which is another bad sign.
Oh boy is tomorrow going to be interesting. And by interesting I mean terrifying. :lol
The Librarian
Banned
Quoting so I can (hopefully) call you out tomorrow night.Jason's Ultimatum said:
Jason's Ultimatum
Member
Eh. This is why the GOP are so good at fearmongering. Usually it's the uneducated and poor they target, but how are "self-identified" liberals falling for the same schtick?
Y2Kev said:
I've been reading some of the internals in these polls and indeed I scratch my head at some of them. One poll had Brown winning 25% of the Black vote and about 75% of Hispanic voters. :lol The PPP poll had Obama at only 44% approval in the state which I can't believe. Maybe GhaleonEB can explain this, because I sure as hell can't.
The Librarian
Banned
Because these polls are... Wait for it... Bullshit!Jason's Ultimatum said:
Nate had a take on the Obama approval ratings - which I think would apply to the other metrics that looks odd - here. The short version is remember that all these polls are using likely voter models, not registered voters. Obama's approval in MA among all voters appears high, well over the national figure. But the composition of the electorate tomorrow is expected to tilt more Republican, and so that skews Obama's approval as well as every other question from the poll. How much so depends on all the different assumptions in the models, which is why this is a hard race to call.Averon said:
If Democrats turn out anywhere near the proportion of their regstration advantage over Republicans, Coakley wins. If not, she loses. That's pretty much what it comes down to.
cartoon_soldier
Member
And the only reason at this point they would turn out in those numbers is they get scared into doing so.
SlipperySlope
Banned
GhaleonEB said:
Well, they better get ready for a PR nightmare if they do that.
empty vessel
Member
cartoon_soldier said:
The Democrats might not have had this problem had they crafted a health care bill worth fighting for. And the Democrats didn't craft a health care bill worth fighting for because there was no pressure from an organized left movement forcing them too. It spirals downwards. Or rightwards, as the case may be.
Seriously. What's worse? Adhering to the letter of Massachusetts election law for two weeks, or failing to pass a healthcare bill after blowing an entire year (and probably a generation) working on it? This is not even a question.Tamanon said:
You premise is correct (polling shows that of the people who disapprove of the current bills, over half disapprove because they are not strong enough), but the diagnosis isn't quite right. Absolutely no amount of organization from the left would have moved the Blue Dogs in the House, or the Lincolns, Nelsons, Liebermans or Landrieus in the Senate.empty vessel said:
The most liberal bill we were going to get was going to come from the House; the institutional roadblocks in the Senate have more to do with the weakness of the impending bill as much as anything.
First post on this page.Jason's Ultimatum said:
Jason's Ultimatum
Member
So how will DEMs pass HCR if Brown wins tommorrow? Is reconciliation the only option left?
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...setts-to-act-before-seating-brown.php?ref=fpc
A more detailed and sourced article on how the bill will pass if Brown wins.
A more detailed and sourced article on how the bill will pass if Brown wins.
- Status