Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Well, no, party nominees have gotten blown out before, obviously.
Post Debate Poll Shows Clinton Recovering in New Hampshire
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Well, no, party nominees have gotten blown out before, obviously.
User 463088
Banned
If only we Dems had gone with the candidate who won the primary instead of Walter Mondale. /s
It would take a near-miracle for Bernie to beat Hillary in the primary. If that happens, we've passed the point where any predictions are worth a damn. Besides, the Republican party is an embarrassment. The electoral college has the deck stacked against them. Their leading candidates aren't more electable than Bernie Sanders on any planet that I've been to.
Stop worrying and fear-mongering with that "important election" shit. I expect that sort of rhetoric out of Ted Cruz.
EDIT: Mondale v Reagan? Lol.
Elfforkusu
Member
I know what the polls say about "socialists", but that's a word that's been repurposed to represent some vague idea of Soviet Nazis from space. It would be baggage in the general, but given that Bernie is not a Soviet Nazi from space, I'm not sure it's as big of a handicap as the vague idea of "socialism" might suggest. As a specific bit of conjecture, if you asked the people of Vermont, "would you elect a socialist to Congress", vs "would you re-elect Bernie", I suspect you'd have quite a swing in %.
All that said: I think he is only electable if the Democratic establishment (i.e. Obama) got behind him. If they were to, he's electable. Now... is that possible?
Certainly doesn't seem like it.
User 463088
Banned
The fact that you think that our concern over the importance of preserving what we've fought for over the last 8 years is nothing more than "important election shit" is very telling.
I know it may be hard to believe, but 45-47% of the country will vote for a tree if it has (R) behind their name. These people are not going to jump ship to the Vermont Socialist because they've had some type of epiphany that the GOP really doesn't care about them.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
I'm in the same boat (as in I don't know who I'm voting for). I am registered independent and the state I'm registered in does not have an open primary, so I can't vote until the general election. At that time, I will decide if I'm gonna vote R, D, or not vote at all. I agree that you shouldn't feel forced to vote for someone or for a party, but people will still give you shit if you think differently than them.
ZeezbruhTV
Member
well damn, oh well clinton future.
Butts-a-plenty
Banned
It's a dirty word. They called Obama a socialist and he was able to deflect it, because you know, he isn't. Good luck with that once the ads with Sander's saying he is a socialist start running...
Elfforkusu
Member
I do understand where you're coming from on this, and it wouldn't be fair to argue against it too strongly.
(it's basically why I'll swallow by pride and vote for Hillary when the time comes)
I'm not sure that Obama was really able to deflect it among people who care about such things. (republicans)
There's still this remarkable narrative that Obama's super liberal, after all. Most of that goes back to the GOP's talking points, but I feel like he won in spite of it, not because he deflected it.
No it wouldn't, primaries and the general election are very different.
Yes the electoral college makes it difficult for a republican to win not impossible. I guess you've never been to the USA because someone like Rubio is probably more electable.
Yeah who cares about what actually will happen if the republicans win, totally fear mongering and not a very real possibility with Sanders as the nominee.
#KeepAmericaGreatAgain
Why are you talking about those people? You think they're voting for Hillary? Your complacency might be getting out of control.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Barry Goldwater, George McGovern.
User 463088
Banned
Well, Vermont is not a microcosm of America, but I get your point. The socialism thing is a problem. It really, really is. We don't get to throw away decades worth of fear about it simply because Bernie thinks we should. As Cooper told him, the ads write themselves. They will come after him hard and fast on that issue should he get the nomination. He's said he's not a capitalist. He wants to be like Denmark. Hillary, at a Democratic debate no less, got to hit him over the head with "We're not Denmark." It got a round of applause. The GOP will destroy him over that and his vacation to the USSR. Is it stupid? Yes. Will it work? Yes. So far, Sanders defense has been "I'll explain it to them." He had a chance to do that at the debate and he, once again, punted on the issue.
Bernie's type of politicking works well in a small state. He's running a national campaign now. Not everyone is going to meet and fall in love with him. He needs to be far more targeting in how he deals with things and vulnerabilities. Of course, he doesn't run polls, so he doesn't really know where he has issues until they, quite literally, get into his face.
If he wins the nomination, yes, I assume that Obama would endorse him. The DNC would give him support, but, at a certain point, they'll have to do what's best to try and preserve the party. If it looks like he's going to get blown out, they'd probably want to target resources to down ballot races.
However, a party's candidate is supposed to be the leader of the party. Until 2015, Bernie Sanders was not a Democrat. He has no loyalty to the individuals who make up the party, and they have no loyalty to him. That's a problem. How can he lead the party when he's not been there taking the lumps with us? It's an image problem, and he's never really addressed it.
Nope. That will and is not the case.
Elfforkusu
Member
I'm not sure that the GOP would be able to hit him much harder than they will with Hillary. "can she be trusted to negotiate when she can't keep track of her own emails", "benghazi something something benghazi", etc. The thing with the modern GOP is that it doesn't matter if you actually did something or not. Facts are strictly optional.
re: the bolded, I think Bernie's status as fringe Democrat is fascinating, potentially extremely helpful for courting independents in a general election, and his biggest hurdle in winning the nomination. Your last question is the one that will deliver Hillary the nomination, IMO.
Blown out by an incumbent, blown out by an incumbent.
Are you banking on Rubio taking the nomination or are you saying Trump and Carson are more electable than Sanders? One of those things, while not what I was talking about, is very possible. The other is borderline offensive.
Butts-a-plenty
Banned
No, he's saying they've vote for whoever the Republican candidate is regardless, unlike some Bernie supporters who say they'll sit out if he doesn't get the nom.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Some of my co-workers, very smart people even, are sort of on the Trump wagon. Not to the point that they actively support him, but they "sort of like what he has to say". If it comes down to Bernie vs Trump, I can absolutely see the country going to Trump, quite frankly
User 463088
Banned
Oh, they'll definitely hit whomever we put up. In 2008 (and 12), they hinted that Obama was a socialist. It wasn't true, though. So, at a certain point, it's up to the people to decide. With Sanders, though, they have him on record saying he's a socialist and saying that he's not a capitalist. They don't have to hint at anything. There's no wink-wink-nudge-nudge. It's in his own words. You flash images of the USSRs bread lines, and Sander's saying "I'm a socialist" and you've got an ad that would be incredibly damning.
One of Hillary's strengths is her ability to deal with scandals. There's a bit of a fatigue around them. They've been trying to tear her down for 25 years. Why haven't the email thing really cought on? Because we've seen this game plan from the GOP before. Hillary killed Vince Foster. She ran Whitewater. She slipped Bill's no-no parts into Monica. People just tune it out after a while. Plus, the House GOP really, really screwed up the 9,494th Benghazi Committee.
As to his status as an Independent, I don't think it hurts him from a supporter perspective. It hurts him from a party perspective. The bundlers, the people who move the money into the party, have no reason to support him. (And these are not the bad guys created by Citizens United). The people that do the grunt work for getting people elected tend to be rather loyal partisans. They have no reason to throw support behind Bernie until he would become the nominee. At that point, I fear it would be far too late.
I also read a poll or study that really talked about what it means to be an independent. Independents tend to break GOP because they're often displaced Republicans. Dems have an overall party advantage, especially in the more swing states. True swing independents are rather rare. I'm not sure Sander's independent status helps him that much with them. I could be wrong, though. I'd need to research more into it.
Butts-a-plenty
Banned
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
You asked why anyone is worried about the primaries because if Sanders wins the nomination then he is ipso facto electable and we gave you three examples where that isn't the case. If you're adding qualifiers like "in a non-incumbent year where the other party is full of clowns" that's really just arguing that the other party is completely unelectable. Which, ok, but even I'm not THAT confident.
Butts-a-plenty
Banned
There will be far more adults that didn't vote because "oh shit, the election was YESTERDAY?!" than Bernie supporters who stayed home because they didn't get their way. Stop being silly.
Maybe. I dunno. Shit would be crazy.
Well, I was mostly asking "why worry about the primaries because Sanders WONT win".
I'm not THAT confident, I just feel like the Republicans are spotting us some serious fucking points right now. The demographics are stacked against them/their policies and their lineup of candidates is about as bad as it could be. I'm not entirely convinced moderates are going to be eager to go right.
Doesn't really matter because Sanders won't get through. I'd still like to see him out there getting his words out in front of cameras for a while. I'd like to see him get some, otherwise disinterested, voters excited about the election. I'd also like the press to have something aside from TRUMPGHAZE-MAILS to talk about.
User 463088
Banned
Why? Because he has a D behind his name (only until the day after the election, though.) The fact that he has no support among the minorities that make up the Dem primary is a perfect example of why he won't win the primary. As a Democrat, I find it deplorable that we take the minority vote for granted. We need to stop treating them as a box we can check off. But that's not the point.
Yes, minorities, the young and women would vote in higher proportions for the Dem nominee than the GOP's. However, we can still lose. This view that we're unbeatable in Presidential years freaks me the hell out.
Doesn't the insinuation that minority support couldn't possibly shift away from Hillary pretty much define "taking the minority vote for granted"?
User 463088
Banned
That's not at all what I'm saying.
Bernie has been in the race for months now. His numbers have improved from where he began, no question. His numbers among minority voters, though, haven't kept pace. It is not enough for him to be viewed favorably by certain demographics. He has to show them how he'll better represent their interests than Clinton will. He's not doing that, for whatever reason, among African American voters. Add to that Bernie is out of step with many members of the African American community on guns, which is more of an issue among minority voters for obvious reasons.
Yes, things definitely could change. However, there's no evidence to suggest that minorities are suddenly going to "feel the Bern" when current (although new) trends show things settling back to where they were pre Hillary's summer of hell.
King Tubby
Member
I agree but it does honestly feel like it boils down into this game theory situation where you either grit your teeth and vote for the most pragmatic option that doesn't make you want to shit or you vote with your heart and risk someone being elected who you think is going to run the country off a cliff.
You seem way too focused on gotchas instead of the important things. Why would any democrat not want more debates? Whoever won the first debate doesn't matter as much as seeing almost all the candidates looking much better than the republicans.
OuterLimits
Member
I'm shocked. Her only competition is from a socialist in his middle 70s. Chafee and Webb were so bad in the debate that I felt bad for them. O'Malley was so popular in Maryland that his Lt. Gov lost to a Republican after his 8 years.
Granted, I don't think Bernie really thinks he has a chance. He is there to promote the issues he cares about. Hillary is great at politics no doubt. She is excellent when it comes to walking the line between progressive and centrist. She even further explained her comments about calling Republicans the "enemy". She said it was a little tongue in cheek and that she works very well with Republicans in an interview with the Boston Globe.
Most Republican and Democrat politicians are friends with each other despite slamming each other in front of a camera. Hell, they probably joke about it when hanging out together for drinks after spending all day saying how evil the other party is.
Granted, I don't think Bernie really thinks he has a chance. He is there to promote the issues he cares about. Hillary is great at politics no doubt. She is excellent when it comes to walking the line between progressive and centrist. She even further explained her comments about calling Republicans the "enemy". She said it was a little tongue in cheek and that she works very well with Republicans in an interview with the Boston Globe.
Most Republican and Democrat politicians are friends with each other despite slamming each other in front of a camera. Hell, they probably joke about it when hanging out together for drinks after spending all day saying how evil the other party is.
I'd just like to add that the incredible amount of hyperbole and negative campaigning against Obama has been advantageous to Bernie.
A sizeable portion of the population probably thinks Obama is influenced by the devil, or something. They kept pushing the socialist, dictator and tyrant tropes on Obama, despite evidence to the contrary.
They have effectively diluted their own insults (in the eyes of the more reasonable, anyway), which actually makes Bernie's ticket in easier. It'll still be an incredibly steep, uphill battle for him, though.
A sizeable portion of the population probably thinks Obama is influenced by the devil, or something. They kept pushing the socialist, dictator and tyrant tropes on Obama, despite evidence to the contrary.
They have effectively diluted their own insults (in the eyes of the more reasonable, anyway), which actually makes Bernie's ticket in easier. It'll still be an incredibly steep, uphill battle for him, though.
Hillary has a campaign finance reform plan. Here you can read it
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/campaign-finance-reform/
She hasn't embraced full public campaign financing. But some of her steps, especially matching small donor donations, would go a long way.
Well it appears she's clearly on the uptick again after a summer of terrible headlines and news stories.
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