I think it's premature to write off Starfield, it'll take a little while to see if it's got legs and for some reviews it was a 10/10. I think it's quite possible that it'll be embraced by players and could well end up being regarded higher than the metacritic average suggests.
Whatever happens, I would personally say the sensible money is on TOTK, BG3 will get a boost via console players and again it'll be interesting to see how much buzz there is after a month or so.
Imo it has to be one of those 3, Final Fantasy and Resi have no chance.