• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

Pre-Release PSP (NPD) Sales Prediction

S

sonycowboy

Member
OK. Sony claims to be shipping a million for North America and say they've got more for us if need be, although whether that could be here for March or not is unclear.

However, we've certainly got ALOT of people with something to say on the subject. Essentially, many believe the PSP won't sniff this side of 600k, while others think it'll be over 1M, so we've just gotta get this as our contest. Now, Sony (and probably some retailers) will probably give us some indication before NPD hits, so let's look at what people think will happen BEFORE launch.

So, here's the job:

1) Predict within 10k how much will sell in the US (we'll get this from NPD)
2) Predict within 10k what Sony might say they sold in North America at launch
3) Predict the top 5 games as measured by units sold within 5k (again, we'll get this from March's NPD)
4) Make one of the three statements:
a) There is NO WAY IN HELL the PSP will sell over 600k in March's NPD in such a short time at that price
b) The PSP will probably sell between 650k and 900k in March's NPD (you can make comments about higher or lower if you'd like)
c) The PSP will DEFINTELY, WITHOUT A DOUBT sell over 900k in March's NPD.

The contest ends March 24th @ 12:01 am (the morning of the launch)

NOTE: NPD won't be out until Thurs, April 14th or so ;)
 
I'm not going to predict the games, but I say that the PSP will sell 450,000 units by the end of the month.

There is absolutely no way in Hell they will meet their 1 million claim within just a few days. Sony is way overestimating the Playstation brandname, IMO.
 
NPD only counts the US right? Sony is shipping 1 million to NA~but how many to the US specifically? We don't know so that's why I say they can't and won't do 1 million. 600~800k for me.
 
1) 660,000 sold
2) 700,000 PR spin by Sony
3) 1. Ridge Racer, 2. Need for Speed Underground, 3. Tony Hawk Underground 2, 4. Wipeout Pure, 5. Lumines.
4) b) The PSP will probably sell between 650k and 900k in March's NPD (you can make comments about higher or lower if you'd like)
 
1) 634,414 Units
2) 720,000 Units
3) Ridge Racer 120k
Lumines 80k
Wipeout Pure 70k
Tony Hawk 50k
Twisted Metal 35k
4)b) The PSP will probably sell between 650k and 900k in March's NPD (you can make comments about higher or lower if you'd like)
 
I'm tweaking mine down a bit...

1) 680k

2) no PR number given

3) I'm not including 989 stuff as I've no idea how that tends to do.... something like NBA could definitely end up in the top 5.

01: Tony Hawk's Underground 2 Remix~ 125k
02: Need for Speed Underground Rivals~ 110k
03: Spider-Man 2~ 95k
04: Twisted Metal: Head On~ 75k
05: Ridge Racer~ 60k

4) b) The PSP will probably sell between 650k and 900k in March's NPD
 
You guys are not considering the fact that your average guy isn't going to give a crap about Lumines.


I say the top 5 games are (in no particular order):

MGS:Acid
Wipeout
Ridge Racer
THUG 2
NFSU
 
1) 455,000 PSP sold
2) Sony will say they SHIPPED 1 Million! :) If pressed, they'll be accurate on the number sold.
3) Games Sold: Ridge Racers (125k), Need For Speed Underground (125k), Tony Hawk (100k), WiipeOut Pure (100k), and Twisted Metal (100k)
4) I'm going with A. While I think that the PSP is a great system, and has huge potential, I just don't think the mainstream is ready for it yet. It'll take Sony a bit of time to get the mainstream player behind. Like say, until August when Madden comes out! ;)

Edit: Added THUG2 to games list
 
Shadax said:
1) Predict within 10k how much will sell in the US (we'll get this from NPD)

at least 1 mil

2) Predict within 10k what Sony might say they sold in North America at launch

at least 1 mil

3) Predict the top 5 games as measured by units sold within 5k (again, we'll get this from March's NPD)

no idea here

4) Make one of the three statements:

c) The PSP will DEFINTELY, WITHOUT A DOUBT sell over 900k in March's NPD.
Click to expand...

Here's my $0.02.
 
1) 850,000 PSP units
2) 1,000,000 PSP units
3) Ridge Racer - 135,000
NFSU 2 - 115,000
THUG Remix - 65,000
Spider man 2 - 55,000
Twiste Metal: Head On - 45,000
4) b) The PSP will probably sell between 650k and 900k in March's NPD
 
1) 910k
2) 1M
3) THUG Remix - 360k
Twisted Metal - 220k
NFSU 2 - 110k
Spiderman2 - 60k
RR - 50k
4) c. - Yeah, sure. The PSP will sell over 900k units, b/c there are that many suckers out there. Damn you motherfuckers!

PEACE.
 
Units sold....

1. 690,000

2. 1,000,000

Now for software.... I think the new titles will have the strongest sales and I think software sales for all the games will be fairly strong. Afterall, you don't buy a sweet gadget like the PSP without buying a few games to show it off now do you? I doubt any of the ports will break the top 5 except for THUG 2 Remix because it offers a fairly substantial amount of new content and its popular among hardcore gamers and casuals alike. Games like NFSU and Spiderman traditionally sell well but they sell best to casuals. The casuals aren't the ones buying PSPs at launch.

3a. Ridge Racer - 205,000
3b. Twisted Metal Head On - 140,000
3c. THUG 2 Remix - 140,000
3d. Lumines - 110,000
3e. Wipeout Pure - 90,000

4. The PSP will probably sell between 650k and 900k in March's NPD.

GaimeGuy said:
You guys are not considering the fact that your average guy isn't going to give a crap about Lumines.
Click to expand...

Ahh but "Joe Casual" won't be the one buying a PSP at launch. Early adopters = the hardcore gamers. If anything, I think a lot of people are underestimating Lumines.
 
1) 480k
2) 600k
3)

Need for Speed Underground Rivals - 100k
Tony Hawk's Underground 2 - 70k
Twisted Metal Head On - 50k
Spiderman - 50k
Wipeout Pure - 40k

4) There is NO WAY IN HELL the PSP will sell over 600k in March's NPD in such a short time at that price
 
jarrod said:
-1 million (they're claiming 1.3M in Japan and that's almost 50% higher than what any polling service shows them at).
Click to expand...

That's not exactly true. With last weeks Media Create numbers it officially put Sony over 1,000,000 in Japan. 300,000 more is not "almost 50% more", more like 30%.
 
Some historical numbers for you folks from the past 5 launches. Launch totals for the hardware in their first month and the unit sales of the top 5 launch games (also in that launch month) :D

Code: 
[b]PLAYSTATION 2 SYSTEM        391,245     GAMECUBE SYSTEM        647,466       XBOX SYSTEM           711,619[/b]
MADDEN NFL 2001             148,680     LUIGI'S MANSION        361,722       HALO                  356,984
TEKKEN TAG TOURNAMENT        91,223     SW: ROGUE SQUADRON II  270,456       PROJECT GOTHAM RACI   212,720
SSX                          53,004     WAVE RACE: BLUE STORM  126,767       DEAD OR ALIVE 3       197,783
RIDGE RACER TYPE V           28,451     T. HAWKS PRO SKATER 3  108,039       NFL FEVER 2002        165,947
NHL 2001                     24,544     MADDEN NFL 2002        105,887       MADDEN NFL 2002       136,520
[b]Overall Tie Ratio              1.64     Overall Tie Ratio         1.86       Overall Tie Ratio        1.94[/b]

[b]GAMEBOY ADVANCE SYSTEM      870,179     NINTENDO DS SYSTEM     479,695[/b]
SUPER MARIO ADVANCE         379,117     SUPER MARIO 64 DS      214,417
TONY HAWKS PRO SKATR2       159,418     SPIDER-MAN:THE MOVIE2   40,706
CASTLEVANIA: CIRCLE         115,745     MADDEN NFL 2005         32,889
F-ZERO MAX VELOCITY         110,304     THE URBZ:SIMS IN CITY   26,908
RAYMAN ADVANCE               74,246     ASPHALT: URBAN GT       26,605
[b]Overall Tie Ratio              1.36     Overall Tie Ratio         0.74[/b]
 
1) 886,000
2) 930,000
3) TOP 5:
1-need for speed 147,673
2-tony hawk 124,416
3-nba 105,821
4-twisted metal 86,020
5-wipeout 74,281

4) b- The PSP will probably sell between 650k and 900k in March's NPD
 
1. 720K
2. 1 mil :P
3.
NFSU2 - 130K
THUG 2 - 110K
Ridge Racer - 100K
Spiderman 2 - 80K
Twisted Metal - 80K

4. choice b)
 
Link316 said:
PSP software sales should be pretty high with all these damn retailers bundling 2-4 games with it :P
Click to expand...

Which retailers?

Best Buy, EBGames, Gamestop, Target, Wal-Mart aren't bundling in store. Circuit City is the only one I know of. Now online, I'm sure there's bundling, but they get a VERY SMALL allocation of systems.
 
First 10 days: >900k, nearing 1 million (basically sold out- there's a LOT of PS fans out there)
Sony PR/shipment numbers: 1 million (well, they will have shipped as many)
Tie ratio: 2-3 games per system

I'm really optimistic that this system is going to do very well at launch. Then again, I can only talk from what I've seen.
 
1) PSP will sell 775,000 units the first week and the rest of their stock by mid-late the next week after.
2) Sony will say they "sold" a million, even though they meant they shipped that many units out.
3)

THUG 2 Remix - 345,000
Need For Speed: Underground Rivals - 250,000
NBA Street Showdown - 175,000
NFL Street 2 Unleashed - 100,000
Ridge Racers - 85,000

4) B
 
AniHawk said:
First 10 days: >900k, nearing 1 million (basically sold out- there's a LOT of PS fans out there)
Sony PR/shipment numbers: 1 million (well, they will have shipped as many)
Tie ratio: 2-3 games per system

I'm really optimistic that this system is going to do very well at launch. Then again, I can only talk from what I've seen.
Click to expand...

For once, I agree with you. *golfclap*
 
sonycowboy said:
OK. Sony claims to be shipping a million for North America and say they've got more for us if need be, although whether that could be here for March or not is unclear.

However, we've certainly got ALOT of people with something to say on the subject. Essentially, many believe the PSP won't sniff this side of 600k, while others think it'll be over 1M, so we've just gotta get this as our contest. Now, Sony (and probably some retailers) will probably give us some indication before NPD hits, so let's look at what people think will happen BEFORE launch.

So, here's the job:

1) Predict within 10k how much will sell in the US (we'll get this from NPD)
2) Predict within 10k what Sony might say they sold in North America at launch
3) Predict the top 5 games as measured by units sold within 5k (again, we'll get this from March's NPD)
4) Make one of the three statements:
a) There is NO WAY IN HELL the PSP will sell over 600k in March's NPD in such a short time at that price
b) The PSP will probably sell between 650k and 900k in March's NPD (you can make comments about higher or lower if you'd like)
c) The PSP will DEFINTELY, WITHOUT A DOUBT sell over 900k in March's NPD.

The contest ends March 24th @ 12:01 am (the morning of the launch)

NOTE: NPD won't be out until Thurs, April 14th or so ;)
Click to expand...

1) 875k
2) 1m
3)Twisted Metal 265k
NFSU Rivals 210k
THUG2 Remix 180k
Ridge Racer 140k
Metal Gear Acid 120k
4) B
 
AniHawk said:
First 10 days: >900k, nearing 1 million (basically sold out- there's a LOT of PS fans out there)
Sony PR/shipment numbers: 1 million (well, they will have shipped as many)
Tie ratio: 2-3 games per system

I'm really optimistic that this system is going to do very well at launch. Then again, I can only talk from what I've seen.
Click to expand...

So PSP is going to have the highest tie ratio at launch of any system ever? Tall order.


My guess at the NPD:
Hardware: 680,000
Software: 800,000

I don't really care about the rest. But I'm sure Lumines is going to be the #1 or #2 seller, because early adopters are almost all THAT hardcore.
 
I fully expect to eat crow one way or another, but what the hell...

1) Predict within 10k how much will sell in the US (we'll get this from NPD)

Hmm... DS sells 480k at $100 less at the height of holiday shopping season while riding the coattails of GBA popularity by offering BC and with a few of extra days in its launch month to sell... Even with the widely lauded "sexier" design, more purist approach to game input, multimedia features and the Playstation brand leverage I don't know if I see the PSP being able to overcome the higher price tag right away to sell significantly better than the DS did.

520k

2) Predict within 10k what Sony might say they sold in North America at launch

600k

3) Predict the top 5 games as measured by units sold within 5k (again, we'll get this from March's NPD)

PASS

4) Make one of the three statements:

a) There is NO WAY IN HELL the PSP will sell over 600k in March's NPD in such a short time at that price

Well, I wouldn't necessarily say there's no way in hell, but it's the only answer that most closely matches my answer to #1.
 
1)700,000

Reasoning: Based upon personal observations and GAF confessionals, PSP demand is hit and miss and I think several stores will have abundances of copies when it's all said and done. It's also possible that many people who preordered will show up, find out the price of the system and how much they are forced into a bundle and cancel immediately. Other stores in bigger populated cities with a higher average job pay will have higher demand and consistentcy in sell out rates. Plus, the high price is a big turn off for the common consumer and they will go pick up a DS instead or some other gaming item. So, that should give it a high sell out rate with plenty of extra units left over.

2)1 million to 900,000

Reasoning: PR always like to boost about how many shipped units they have out there. My guess is that they're gonna say that PSP sold over so and so units over a few days or over a week's time.

3)Ridge Racer, NFSU2, Spiderman 2, Dynasty Warriors, and Tony Hawk

Reasoning: Wipeout Pure isnt a huge mainstream title among PS2 hardcore racing fans(despite the amount of attention on this board), and Metal Gear Acid is getting bad press, not to mention that the MGS audience only makes up a portion of the entire PS2 userbase. Plus, Lumines is a relatively lesser known title and not going to make a large amount of people pay so much money for. My guess is that the majority of people that will pick up a PSP right now are sports fans(I wouldnt be surprised if MLB or NBA was in the Top 5 instead of some of the titles I mentioned).

4)b ---- As I said before, demand is hit & miss depending on where you live and how populated your city is. Lower income cities will not have a high demand, and also places where there is alot of electronic gaming options will have more people picking up DSs.

700,000 is my conceived guess and I would also like to mention that it's going to be interesting how DS sales are impacted in the next NPD. That's a more telling story than what PSP sells..... :)
 
kaching said:
I fully expect to eat crow one way or another, but what the hell...

1) Predict within 10k how much will sell in the US (we'll get this from NPD)

Hmm... DS sells 480k at $100 less at the height of holiday shopping season while riding the coattails of GBA popularity by offering BC and with a few of extra days in its launch month to sell... Even with the widely lauded "sexier" design, more purist approach to game input, multimedia features and the Playstation brand leverage I don't know if I see the PSP being able to overcome the higher price tag right away to sell significantly better than the DS did.

520k

2) Predict within 10k what Sony might say they sold in North America at launch

600k

3) Predict the top 5 games as measured by units sold within 5k (again, we'll get this from March's NPD)

PASS

4) Make one of the three statements:

a) There is NO WAY IN HELL the PSP will sell over 600k in March's NPD in such a short time at that price

Well, I wouldn't necessarily say there's no way in hell, but it's the only answer that most closely matches my answer to #1.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't use DS sales as any indication. On top of all you mentioned, there were very limited supplies. There were only 500k that first month (week) and it damn near sold out.
 
AniHawk said:
I wouldn't use DS sales as any indication. On top of all you mentioned, there were very limited supplies. There were only 500k that first month (week) and it damn near sold out.
Click to expand...
Oh...so there was no restock before end of Nov.? 500K shipped for all of November?
 
gamergirly said:
...and they will go pick up a DS instead or some other gaming item.
Click to expand...

You lost me here with this truly delusional and depressing piece of from-the-left-field game punditry.
 
Drinky Crow said:
Lumines won't sell for shit. I bet it doesn't break 50K.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that's true. Especially seeing how little exposure the game is getting in all of the larger game publications, but all things considered, if it were to sell 50K, it would be a tidy profit anyway.
 
kaching said:
Oh...so there was no restock before end of Nov.? 500K shipped for all of November?
Click to expand...
Yep. Supply was constrained thanks to the close American and Japanese launches... Nintendo had about 2 million units to split between them iirc.

PSP's in a really unique situation as it's the only platform to have a million units ready on launch day. Every other platform likely could've sold better upfront if they had the supply at launch, what you see it's their absolute sales potential for time but their manufacturing potential.
 
Amir0x said:
That's not exactly true. With last weeks Media Create numbers it officially put Sony over 1,000,000 in Japan. 300,000 more is not "almost 50% more", more like 30%.
Click to expand...
The Sony quote was a week or two earlier though iirc. I remember the total being 900k-ish when it came out (Sony saying 1.3M)... maybe I'm wrong though. :/
 
1) 880k
2) 900k shipped - no sell through figures quoted by Sony
3)
- Need for speed rivals (140k)
- Ridge Racers (125k)
- Wipeout Pure (110k)
- Metal Gear Acid (90k)
- NBA thingy (Sony) (77k)



b) The PSP will probably sell between 650k and 900k in March's NPD (you can make comments about higher or lower if you'd like)
 
jarrod said:
Yep. Supply was constrained thanks to the close American and Japanese launches... Nintendo had about 2 million units to split between them iirc.

PSP's in a really unique situation as it's the only platform to have a million units ready on launch day. Every other platform likely could've sold better upfront if they had the supply at launch, what you see it's their absolute sales potential for time but their manufacturing potential.
Click to expand...
Thanks for confirming that. I'll stick with my original estimate, despite the oversight in my logic. Wouldn't be fair to accept help from the crowd. :)
 
1) 550k
2) 850k
3) RR 320k
Wipeout 150k
NFSU 100k
MGA 95k
Spiderman 2 - 70k

4) Make one of the three statements:
b) The PSP will probably sell between 650k and 900k in March's NPD (you can make comments about higher or lower if you'd like)
 
Why not?

1) 937,563
2) 999,999
3) Need For Speed Underground Rivals (232,700), Ridge Racer (167,505), NFL Street (134,060), Twisted Metal: Head On (111,480), NBA (87,654)
4) The PSP will DEFINTELY, WITHOUT A DOUBT sell over 900k in March's NPD.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

  • Poll
Steam Machine life time sales prediction
2 3
123
1K
darrylgorn replied
Nostrodrunkus prediction #2: PS6 Handheld will launch in 2027
2
75
92
Shogmaster replied
  • Poll
Prediction time - what will have higher lifetime sales, PS5 or Switch 2?
42
3K
Horseganador replied
  • Poll
The ARC Raiders Metascore Prediction Thread...
49
1K
clarky replied
Im not drunk yer drunk prediction: XB Magnus announcement in November
2
91
215
Shogmaster replied
Top Bottom