Support NeoGAF

[sonycowboy]

Guaranteed, I'll have different numbers for the full NPD thread, but with the miniscule info I have now

1) 790,000 on March NPD (I think only 850k will be available through US retailers)

2) Sony will claim 1 million units (with more shipping immediately afterwards)

3.1) Need For Speed: Underground Rivals 200k
3.2) THUG 2 180k
3.3) Ridge Racer 130k
3.4) Twisted Metal: Head On 110k
3.5) Spider-Man 2 90k

4) b) The PSP will probably sell between 650k and 900k in March's NPD.

IMO, it has no chance at being below 650k (we'll see )

 

[Prine]

First 10 days: >900k, nearing 1 million (basically sold out- there's a LOT of PS fans out there)
Sony PR/shipment numbers: 1 million (well, they will have shipped as many)
Tie ratio: 2-3 games per system

I'm really optimistic that this system is going to do very well at launch. Then again, I can only talk from what I've seen.

He does it again. totally agree

 

[Amir0x]

The Sony quote was a week or two earlier though iirc. I remember the total being 900k-ish when it came out (Sony saying 1.3M)... maybe I'm wrong though. :/

Yes, but if we can assume at least 100,000 sales came from places not tracked - perhaps Sony's website and elsewhere - then we can assume that generally speaking 25% over is a good accurate description of what they claimed.

 

[jarrod]

Yes, but if we can assume at least 100,000 sales came from places not tracked - perhaps Sony's website and elsewhere - then we can assume that generally speaking 25% over is a good accurate description of what they claimed.

The figures are extrapolated to estimate what isn't covered. Similar to NPD.

It's possible that Sony's 1.3M Japanese PSP figure is 100% on target sure... but then it's also possible that Nintendo's claim of 2.5M American DS figure on target too (which NPD doesn't at all support).

Speaking of which, did we ever get NPD GBA/DS figures for Feb?

 

[AniHawk]

I'm gonna raise my March NPD sales estimate to something over 1 million, and shipment estimate to 1.5 million.

 

[wipeout364]

I'm gonna raise my March NPD sales estimate to something over 1 million, and shipment estimate to 1.5 million.

I agree with Mr Anihawk. I think they will sell whatever they can get over here. The limiting factor will be their manufacturing. I fthey sell less than 600,000 as some people have said I will be shocked. If nintendo DS can rack up the numbers it did with such a poor launch how could the PSP do worse.

 

[sonycowboy]

Any changes in anybody's predictions based on today's events?

For those who thought we'd see a complete sell-out day 1, that clearly didn't happen. While there are some areas that sold out (not many, mostly game stores), many stores such as Wal-Mart, and Target looked like they might have barely been touched.

I predict tomorrow we'll probably see a couple of stories here or there regarding the launch, some calling it successful, some saying that maybe Sony should be concerned, and maybe even saying it's bad, bad news. I'm sure Sony has made the calls to the big retailers to get sale through information and is keenly aware of what's happened. Certainly, both they and some retailers, were making boasts that the system might sell out in one day.

I think I'll stay with my prediction for now, but for those who consider todays events to be trouble for Sony, I'd be interested to see how you think the NPD will turn out for Sony. What number would be an embarresment for Sony? < 500k, < 600k, < 700k???

 

[Catchpenny]

I think the holiday makes it somewhat hard to say...don't know whether Easter will help or hurt sales, and that's the only weekend period that will be included in the NPD.

My gut agrees with wipeout364, though. Anything under 600k is disappointing.

 

[sly]

Any changes in anybody's predictions based on today's events?

I might lower my estimates; I was expecting it to sell out quite quickly but it seems the price is a little too high for some. Sony should have released a PSP-only pack for less than $200 IMO

 

[Kon Tiki]

1) Predict within 10k how much will sell in the US (we'll get this from NPD)

Contestant: What did the previous guy bid?
Bob Barker: 937,563
Contestant: 1 dollar
[/price is right]

j/k

 

[gamergirly]

Any changes in anybody's predictions based on today's events???

Nope, I'm gonna stick with the 700,000 that I predicted. Today, just reinforces what I was thinking about PSPs selling depending on retailer and area. However, Sony probably will have shipped about 1.3 to 1.5 million and not the 1 million that was originally claimed. I do have to admit, I was kinda believing the hype and was going to up my prediction by 100,000 to 150,000 but not after what I witnessed today at local retailers.

If Walmart/Gamestop/Target, three of the biggest electronic retailers, are not even close to selling out(as several of us have admitted), that pretty much confirms that only the retailers with a high number of preorders or retailers in heavily populated popular areas(like NYC or SF) are selling at high rates.

My reasoning for this is that most preorders will be eventually sold as the customers are already aware of the price but after the preorder numbers, wont be too many others picking it up anytime soon. If it were so, you would be seeing MUCH higher numbers at places without preorders like Target and Walmart.....

Still not getting a feel for the entire situation, it is possible that many of us were just overestimating PSP's potentials too early bc of all the hype(even while that in NO way makes up for full house or poor sales of the PSP on its launch day given all the supposedly "attention").

I'm gonna take another ride through town Sat/Sun and see how it's been selling since today. If it's the same situation in a big springtime holiday period, then Im confident I hit the hammer into the nail, and it will be reflected into the next NPD

 

[sonycowboy]

Any changes??? NPD's March period ended Saturday, April 2nd. Make a new post as opposed to editing your previous one, so that we can see the difference

PJ McNealy forecast as much as 575k, but that didn't include Friday & Saturday, which are traditionally pretty good sales days. Of course, you could imagine that the lions share was sold on days 1 & 2, thus making days 9 & 10 less important. (Yes, March NPD will include 10 days of sales)

Since NPD should be out Thursday of next week (April 14th), I'll be putting up my monthly NPD prediction thread late this week for ALL of the NPD hardware and software (including God of War, GT4, Brothers-in-Arms, etc) , but I thought it would be fun to see what people are thinking numbers-wise about the PSP almost two weeks later.

 

[heidern]

Well, I don't live in the US so I can't personally see how things seem to be going. I predict first 2 days was about 525K. I then predict a sales target of 150-200K a month similar to the DS, which is 35-50K a week. However first month should be higher so I'd say 75-100K a week initially. In other words 625K for the first 10 days.

Sony PR will say that it was the biggest handheld launch in history and base the pr on US$ not units. In other words 500K*$250 = $125M in hardware. They will also say it is continuing to outsell competition on a weekly units basis.

Top 5 games:
NFSU:Rivals: 122K
Tony Hawk: 106K
Spiderman 2: 94
NFL Street: 77
Ridge Racer: 57K(but I bet there's shortages in places)

Total attach rate: 1:2 so around 700K games total(average 38K each). However with so much already in the psp packae(movies, music, Spiderman UMD) I can see software sales a lot lower and even not having a single game break 100K, and only a couple break 50K.

Finally, the PSP will probably sell between 600k and 700k in March's NPD.

 

[Slayven]

I think untold legends will surprise people in sales

 

[sonycowboy]

I think untold legends will surprise people in sales

Not really, now that EB & Gamestop have said it's their #1 seller.

Also, there's a new analysts prediction for the first weeks sales

Sony sold 600,000 to 700,000 units of the PSP, as the game player is known, in the first week of U.S. sales, Credit Suisse First Boston said April 1, citing its own survey of retailers. Sony said it prepared 1 million units for the release.

And that might need to add 1-2 days worth of sales, Friday and Saturday, again for whatever you consider that to be worth

 

[jarrod]

Hey SC, have the November 2004 DS software sales for some comparison?

 

[sonycowboy]

Hey SC, have the November 2004 DS software sales for some comparison?

From the 22nd post in this thread

Some historical numbers for you folks from the past 5 launches. Launch totals for the hardware in their first month and the unit sales of the top 5 launch games (also in that launch month)

[b]PLAYSTATION 2 SYSTEM        391,245     GAMECUBE SYSTEM        647,466       XBOX SYSTEM           711,619[/b]
MADDEN NFL 2001             148,680     LUIGI'S MANSION        361,722       HALO                  356,984
TEKKEN TAG TOURNAMENT        91,223     SW: ROGUE SQUADRON II  270,456       PROJECT GOTHAM RACI   212,720
SSX                          53,004     WAVE RACE: BLUE STORM  126,767       DEAD OR ALIVE 3       197,783
RIDGE RACER TYPE V           28,451     T. HAWKS PRO SKATER 3  108,039       NFL FEVER 2002        165,947
NHL 2001                     24,544     MADDEN NFL 2002        105,887       MADDEN NFL 2002       136,520
[b]Overall Tie Ratio              1.64     Overall Tie Ratio         1.86       Overall Tie Ratio        1.94[/b]

[b]GAMEBOY ADVANCE SYSTEM      870,179     NINTENDO DS SYSTEM     479,695[/b]
SUPER MARIO ADVANCE         379,117     SUPER MARIO 64 DS      214,417
TONY HAWKS PRO SKATR2       159,418     SPIDER-MAN:THE MOVIE2   40,706
CASTLEVANIA: CIRCLE         115,745     MADDEN NFL 2005         32,889
F-ZERO MAX VELOCITY         110,304     THE URBZ:SIMS IN CITY   26,908
RAYMAN ADVANCE               74,246     ASPHALT: URBAN GT       26,605
[b]Overall Tie Ratio              1.36     Overall Tie Ratio         0.74[/b]

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

From the 22nd post in this thread

How did the DS manage a tie ratio so far under 1?

 

[jarrod]

From the 22nd post in this thread

Gah! I should pay better attention.

How did the DS manage a tie ratio so far under 1?

Likely a combination of the lackluster launch lineup, GBA playback and bundled software (First Hunt demo & Picto-Chat). Fortunately for SCEA, PSP won't really have those sorts of disdvantages.

 

[sonycowboy]

How did the DS manage a tie ratio so far under 1?

1) It comes with Pictochat
2) It had the Metroid Demo
3) It plays GBA games
4) There were only 6 games @ launch

 

[heidern]

Likely a combination of the lackluster launch lineup, GBA playback and bundled software (First Hunt demo & Picto-Chat). Fortunately for SCEA, PSP won't really have those sorts of disdvantages.

Well, apart from the Spiderman UMD, and the movie/music playback. It probably won't be as bad as the DS, but a tie ratio of around 1:1 is very possible.

 

[Mrbob]

I'm going with 650K hardware prediction. My original prediction was going to be 550K but I noticed the PSP seemed to sell more in the local shops here in the first full week of release than the three day launch before.

Software sales is too much work to guesstimate right now.

Also, do you *really* think Pictochat kept DS owners away from buying DS games? Metroid Prime First Hunt I can buy, but Pictochat?!

 

[jarrod]

Well, apart from the Spiderman UMD, and the movie/music playback. It probably won't be as bad as the DS, but a tie ratio of around 1:1 is very possible.

Passive and active entertainment are pretty distinctly different though... I don't really think PSP's pack-ins/features actively discourage game buying the same way those in DS did.

 

[jarrod]

Also, do you *really* think Pictochat kept DS owners away from buying DS games? Metroid Prime First Hunt I can buy, but Pictochat?!

Likely a combination of

Unless you weren't talking to me.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I forgot about the (awesome looking, I might add) Metroid demo. THere was much buzz about that in particular, as I recall.

That makes sense.

Tbe *only* thing that kept me from impulse buying one (I had it in my hand, just before the last few sold out at my local Best Buy) was that I couldn't talk myself into any of the games that were available.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I could see a low tie ration for PSP as well. I'm not predicting one (same reason I never predicted system sales)-- but with PSP being "hot" and a lot of talk of its movie and music playing power, I can some people getting it just to try it out, and forgoing a game right away.


My *guess* is that we'll actuallt see a decently high tie ratio, but I won't be surprised if it's really low, either. Total wildcard.

 

[jarrod]

I think PSP will have a decent tie ratio, but I also think game sales will be more spread around. I doubt any game passes 200k honestly, there's no singular "gotta have it" game like Mario 64 was for DS, rather it's tons of solid games competing for a 500-700k base. Console level pricing might hurt too.

 

[CamHostage]

Low tie ratio, really? I'd guess against that. For one, there were so many forced bundles on pre-orders and early buys (those seem to have ended when stocks didn't finish moving). But also, it seemed like a lot of people were out getting games for the system, no? Some stores had a bunch of the games actually sold out, even (though how many they got in the first place, who knows.) Software sales seemed to be one of the bright spots in the launch in the stores I've seen. That and screen guard sales.

 

[heidern]

The problem is the $40-50 prices for games. Shelling out $250 is bad enough, but if it has enough to keep you occupied then why bother getting games? Sure getting one game is very likely, but then if you have a game, Spiderman UMD and music/mpg playback for $300, why bother spending any more? With 17 games I and only 6-700,000 sales say, I expect a fair bit of hurt for some publishers,