Predict Publisher/Developer M&A for 2026

Go_Ly_Dow

Member
The Square-Enix thread made a pretty convincing argument for them being snapped up in 2026.

So for 2026 I'll predict something like:

S-E being snapped up for around $5-$7.5billion. Probably by a Japanese entity.

Ubisoft being snapped for around $2-$5billion. Probably Tencent or Middle Eastern $$$.

Cd Projekt, also looks cheap to me sub $10billion value with so many huge games in the works. :pie_thinking:


What say GAF, most of us hate consolidation but it is looking pretty invevitable for most big pubs or developers after the past few years.
 
CD Projekt would be a great target for Sony.

Aligned well to their brand and helps them scale 1st party catalog in IP that scales well across Europe and the US, across PS and PC as well as cross-media.
 
1) Saudi Investment Fund will creep into a lot of acquisitions

2) CD Projekt Red would benefit from a PlayStation partnership. Xbox is dead, so a single-player focused entity like CDPR needs as much funding as possible to make their non-microtransactiony games make sense. Even though PlayStation is currently hard for GaaS, CDPR makes a lot of sense for their overall business and off-platform desires (e.g., TV shows, movies)
 
Consolidation hasn't really created the results some companies hoped it would, actually it has highlighted the considerable risks involved in the strategy.
See Microsoft spending 70 billions for an IP that is having a big decline this year and to be forced to become a third party publisher, Sony with a Bungie that needs to be completely restructured/managed, the chinese companies with Eidos/Crystal Dynamics and many other examples.
When these companies realize the investements were not worth it, it's layoffs/downsize or closure time.

When you work with creativity and art you're basically as good as your last game and you can easily go both up or terribly down.
The risks involved are significant so I expect companies being much more cautious or moving only when the benefits are super clear and the prices are low.
 
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While I do think many, if not most are misunderstanding how dire the world economic situation may be going forward. I don't think Square does and M&A in 2026. Let's see how FFVII pt 3 turns out first.

I'll give you my thoughts how this play out in the next 5 years. If the gaming situation turns dire, with the shift to AI.

1.) I think MS acquires the WHALE. They acquire Valve & Steam. IMO, this is my opinion on how MS attacks gaming in the future. With cloud and PC. Obviously, this would need regulatory approval.

Obviously, looking at the Nintendo situation, I think they need more studios. A LOT MORE. How that manifest itself is unknown. Are they created or acquired? IMO, Nintendo needs at least two more port studios, probably three. So studios can put out one to two 3rd party ports annually.

IMO, Nintendo's future is having these smaller studios each have one to two games per generation. Unless they could also fit into Nintendo's PC/mobile strategy as well.

I think Nintendo will not spend much money on acquisitions except for one!

Panic Button is an obvious choice. Good port studios that is familiar with Nintendo.

I think studios like Yacht Club Games, Inti Creates, Playtonic could naturally be absorbed for Nintendo. Could make very good 2d games for Nintendo. RETRO REVIVAL and new IP's for Nintendo.

Finally, the more costly acquisitions. First EA. IF EA IS FORCED to sell off studios due to being acquired. (This is currently rumored).
Consider MetalHead Software creators of Super Mega Baseball. This would be a low cost studio that could easily create a Mario Sluggers or a new "Griffey Baseball" with Ohtani and friends.

IF…big IF…POPCAP games. POPCAP could be a natural fit for Nintendo or Sega, imo. POPCAP would be expensive!

1.) Give Nintendo another shooter opposite of Splatoon. This would allow each studio to have one shooter per generation and support the game. Thus creating more opportunity for each studio to work on other projects.
2.) Give Nintendo foothold in the mobile space. A studio that could create true mobile titles that are evergreen.
3.) IP that could translate well into the Nintendo family of IP, and also into more than games. Movies, theme parks, and merchandise.

Finally, though I don't see this happening. IF SEGA ever needed to be acquired. OPTION #1, #2, #3 before you even consider anyone else is Nintendo. Having Sega and Atlus in with Nintendo would create an amazing catalog of titles. It would forever alter Nintendo's strategy on releases. Creating opportunities for never ending amazing lineups.

RPG's for example: Persona, fire emblem, then sprinkle in new ip, advance wars, phantasy star, Metaphor, SMT, Paper Mario, Xeno.
Sim: Total War, Fire Emblem, Advance Wars, Tomadachi Life,
Racing: Sega Rally, Mario Kart, Sonic Racing, , Fzero, Kirby Air riders,
Fighting: Arms, Smash, Virtua Fighter, and probably another 2d fighter. You could even do a Sega vs Nintendo title.
3d platformers: sonic, Mario, DK, nights
2d platformers: Mario, sonic, DK, Shadow, DeCap Attack,
Adventure/action titles: Shinobi, Zelda, Streets of Rage, Golden Axe

Sports: Revive Daytona and Sega Bass Fishing!

The list goes on and on, and on…

It is honestly never ending with the back catalog of Sega and Nintendo. That could be a juggernaut.

Finally, Sony. I think I currently see only two natural fits for Sony.

#1) Port studios that can handle pc/mobile strategy for PlayStation ports. Several Sony PC ports have not been the best quality at launch. This needs rectified.

#2) Capcom. This would solve Sony's Japanese problem.

Edit: let Nintendo acquire the Goldeneye IP and Banjo Kazooie IP. Let Sega reacquire Toejam and Earl IP.
 
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None of the three console producers have the capacity to absorb and succesfully develop any of the big studios/publishers mentioned in this thread.

If need be, the lesser evil option would be a capitalistic partner without strategic core business decisions. I hope no M/A happens in 2026.
 
CD Projekt would be a great target for Sony.

Aligned well to their brand and helps them scale 1st party catalog in IP that scales well across Europe and the US, across PS and PC as well as cross-media.
If you like CDPR, you wouldn't want Sony as their parent company. Sony will mismanage them into a shadow of their former selves.
 
If you like CDPR, you wouldn't want Sony as their parent company. Sony will mismanage them into a shadow of their former selves.
Nah.

Sony are an excellent studio manager and very good at respecting and preserving studio autonomy.

They would likely not interfere unless necessary to avoid shit going sideways (like say the initial CP2077 release).

This is probably true and has been for years.
 
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1) Saudi Investment Fund will creep into a lot of acquisitions

2) CD Projekt Red would benefit from a PlayStation partnership. Xbox is dead, so a single-player focused entity like CDPR needs as much funding as possible to make their non-microtransactiony games make sense. Even though PlayStation is currently hard for GaaS, CDPR makes a lot of sense for their overall business and off-platform desires (e.g., TV shows, movies)
Do you think 30 mil units sold min for each of their franchise is not enough to funding their games?
 
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