Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Hopefully it's early in development and they can monitor the competition for the next few years.
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Riot Games (Valorant, League of Legends) believed to be working on an Extraction Shooter...
- Thread starter Men_in_Boxes
- Start date
Hopefully it's early in development and they can monitor the competition for the next few years.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Two main pillars...
1. Long form progression (gameplay based)
2. High stakes (gear fear)
Examples: Escape from Tarkov, Hunt Showdown, ARC Raiders.
It's basically the next big thing in gaming.
Werewolf Jones
Member
Where's the League of Legends BR?
Perrott
Member
Valorant is an objectives-based hero shooter -- basically Counter Strike with characters with different abilities, aka Rainbow Six Siege.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Why do you think that is? Honest question.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
but what porcentage of real player are going to play this? 
near
Gold Member
A lot.but what porcentage of real player are going to play this?
ChorizoPicozo
Member
100% are real players
Avid Reading Horse
Member
More bad news for Marathon.
Felessan
Member
Riot setup accelerator for for future games like 15 years ago so they probably have concepts for many ideas
Just another adoption of old mechanics from MMO times, one that more punishing and frustrating, so is less popular than others
Wouldn't call it "big"
Just another adoption of old mechanics from MMO times, one that more punishing and frustrating, so is less popular than others
Gameplay Gods Bless
Member
I mean they try to cash in on every new trend. They missed the battle Royale trend and after that they went crazy with "a riot game for every genre". It's worked out well so far, still waiting on their MMO tho.
MiguelItUp
Member
Lol, I guess the Valorant IP really is just a, "Hey, I want a slice of that pie" IP.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
I remember hearing this when Demons Souls came out on the PS3. "How could Sony let that one get away?"
"Well it's a niche title because it's too difficult for the masses."
Fast forward 20 years and Elden Ring sold 30 million copies.
This genre is about to grow immensely because it's two primary pillars (tension and progression) appeal to just about everyone.
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Felessan
Member
And Elden Ring is an easy mode souls on back of huge franchise.
Yep, when it'll throw full-loot PvP part out of the window.
It'll never reach heights of battlegrounds (MOBA) or field ganking (BR) as it's more sophisticated, require much more dedication and commitment and very frustrating at times. Not things most people enjoy/ready to. There are place for these games and there are players, but that niche is tiny compared to others.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Just as they'll dial in the difficulty from Escape from Tarkov.
Elden Ring is still one of the most difficult, modern games on the market.
Too early to know one way or the other.
But if all these genres are a stock, buy low on the Extraction genre.
Felessan
Member
Its one of the easiest action games on the market
Both BR and MOBA took off right from the start. And extraction shooters… Tarkov is 2017 game, Hunt showdown is 2018 - genre way past its infancy period. Its already almost 10 years genre "soon to be popular"
Most people just dont like this gameplay
I spent a lot of time in different types of muds/early mmo and full loot pvp, even though I played them the most, are least likable by general crowd and always had a tiny population compared to more "safe" one. Yes, there is a thrill but there is also a frustration of losing stuff and stupid regrind that put off most people. People like non-consequential pvp/pve where you can play for like 30 mins and get off.
Bumblebeetuna
Banned
Same reason publishers green light anything else, want to be sitting in a chair when the music stops.
Bumblebeetuna
Banned
I love Hunt Showdown but I agree. I don't think the mainstream market cares for this type of experience. Marathon is trying to dumb it way down and make it as casual as Destiny but I don't think it will work personally. It will still be too much for casual players and the simplistic approach will alienate extraction enthusiasts.
It will launch huge and have lots of gaming personalities paid to play/promote it and then it will just kind of exist, like pretty much everything else in the genre not called Tarkov.
tylrdiablos
Member
Firstly: We've got the words "rumor" and "if true". Which means speculating is a complete and utter waste of time.
Secondly: Why are extraction shooters suddenly so popular with publishers? There's no history of this genre making shed-loads of money and it's a genre that quite a few players are eager to avoid. (See MOBA's such as Lol and DOTA.)
I think Escape From Tarkov is still pretty popular but even its devs have realised it's time to jump ship and release on Steam to make some more cash. (Source 1, Source 2.)
If you're looking to get whales into your game so you can throw micro-transactions in their face every week, surely there's better genres for such tactics?
Secondly: Why are extraction shooters suddenly so popular with publishers? There's no history of this genre making shed-loads of money and it's a genre that quite a few players are eager to avoid. (See MOBA's such as Lol and DOTA.)
I think Escape From Tarkov is still pretty popular but even its devs have realised it's time to jump ship and release on Steam to make some more cash. (Source 1, Source 2.)
If you're looking to get whales into your game so you can throw micro-transactions in their face every week, surely there's better genres for such tactics?
Avid Reading Horse
Member
100% agree. After seeing how Titanfall or even Black Ops 3 went over with the COD crowd, or some of the things the Destiny community is completely unwilling to accept, there is a limit. And getting the loot only to subsequently lose the loot is beyond that limit for the average online FPS enjoyer, let alone the average Bungo enjoyer.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
We'll have to agree to disagree on this one as I believe Elden Ring is generally considered a difficult game to most people.
But again, the point is the difficulty nob on these games can, and will, be tuned. Escape from Tarkov will more than likely be considered one of the most punishing Extraction games ever released five years from now.
You could be right. Me and tons of other AAA publishers think you're wrong.
A common complaint with early battle royale was a lack of action and death was too punishing.
That didn't seem to harm the BR genre.
People want consequences. Once this genre takes off, the tide will flip on old style games where people say "Those old PvP games were lame. You could play for 30 minutes and nothing happened."
Arena shooters ---> battle royale ---> Extraction.
We're moving away from repetitive, low consequence gameplay.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
What does this even mean?
crackajack
Member
like WoW clones and GTA clones, where everyone wanted to do it too and practically all failed. lol
the "next big thing" rarely evolved after its first hits. This extraction genre seems to exist for a while now - the thing is almost as badly named as BR/last man standing, since it is basically just what L4D already was (entering/extracting at the safe zone) , just more convoluted???- and has not yet exploded, partially it feels like it never left development stages.
Sure, might be that the genre is still in its Ultima/Everquest phase and WoW is yet to come, but with so much talk about extraction shooter, over years now, it should have already taken off a bit more imho if it is really anything.
I am not much of a MP guy, but since it sounds like Roguelike it does interest me even less. So whatever either way. Good luck to all the devs that chose or are forced to chase that next big thing dream.
Holammer
Member
Some people think it's the next great thing after Battle Royale.
Surely you know someone that played Helldivers 2? It's technically one, but the purists demand PVP mechanics where losers go unrewarded.
Roman Empire
Member
Bumblebeetuna
Banned
Ah yes the infallible third party video game publisher.
No one complained about deaths being too punishing to any consequential degree. That was the point of the BR game.
You can play extraction shooters for thirty minutes and nothing happens until someone shoots you in the back or you die to the timer, same as BR. That or you see no action and you extract with nothing of importance.
Also no tide is going to flip on the other shooters. There have always been sub genres for everything. You sound like some of my friends in the 90's claiming that as soon as a good Virtual Fighter hits home consoles, no one will play "casual Street Fighter" anymore. Of course they were extremely wrong, as you are.
Arena shooters like CoD and BR like Fortnite and Apex and Warzone etc are popular because you load up and hop in and play. Extraction will never reach this mark because it is not a casual experience.
Absolutely nothing shown from Marathon suggests anything more than another extraction shooter with repetitive and mostly low consequence gameplay, same as any BR.
Felessan
Member
Tons? There are 2 to 3 projects and Riot in very unconfirmed state. And Riot has internal accelerator (similar to startup accelerator) meaning that they have many teams those test a lot of ideas and given they already have MOBA and Hero shooter their choice is not that big. What will survive internal culling we don't know, BR didn't make it for example.
Unlike what some people belive publishers rarely go against juggernaut and if they do - they make sure their game is very different. You don't see many GTA clones and last BR was Naraka that is very different from Fortnite.
Publishers doesn't want to go head-to-head battle, so they seek niches that are less crowded where you might score a hit, might not on the top level, but still better than going for suicide. And extraction shooters are on the low representation side of competitive PvP subgenres (I really don't know why western devs dislike PvE live service games so much).
But it doesn't mean that even if they can adapt genre and score success it will be on the level of bigger genres.
Because complaints are one thing and reality is another. Like people compalin about live service game all the time - have no effect on a train. Same for BR - some oldschoolers complained, but genre took of in a fantastic matter and very quickly. And extraction shooters still sit in the nerdy niche and some hopes maybe blablabla "soon"
And BR match is not punishing - it's the same as CS match - you die - you wait for next round. People had zero problem with CS, one of the most played game. BR just added in-round progression and some limiting mechanics.
Once. In an year of 2659.
BR is basically evolved arena shooter with in-session progression (and people like that). Out-of-session progression is a burden, one of the reason why MMO heavily declined, loosing most of the crowd to session based gameplay (MOBA, BR etc).
Yeah... it's already 8 years and we are still "moving"
You should just face reality
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Nocty
Member
I have not actually! I have it wishlisted myself on steam but don't remember much about it, it didn't look like my cup of tea so not sure why I had it wishlisted at all.
I'm sure there are great games out there, it's just a genre much like Sports games that I don't know anyone interested in them. I know millions of people buy the basket ball / football etc games every year but yeah..
diffusionx
Gold Member
devs are desperate to find the next big thing, including Riot. They're also working on a fighting game which I am much more likely to play than this.
My opinion on this "genre" hasn't changed in recent months, I think it's a solution looking for a problem. I don't think the ceiling of extraction shooters is very high.
Generic
Member
Extraction shooters are far more hardcore. You don't lose all your loot when dying in Dark Souls.
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KaiserBecks
Member
Tarkov is a 2017 game, Hunt is a 2018 game and both have an active player base. I've played Tarkov, Gray Zone Warfare, Arena Breakout Infinite….extraction shooters are a lot of fun. After trying the last playtest, Arc Raiders has become my most anticipated game this year.
rm082e
Gold Member
I'm not trying to answer for
Bumblebeetuna
, but this seems obvious: All major publishers are chasing after a future game that becomes as big as Fortnite, Minecraft, COD, etc. They're all publicly traded corporations, and corps are incentivized to take the biggest bets they can possibly take. CEOs of companies don't get rewarded for making small incremental upticks. They actually get punished for not delivering enough growth. At the same time, if they take big swings, they set themselves up for at least 3-5 years of salary while their vision gets a chanced to work through the pipeline. They can also get a break from the board if they take a big swing and it doesn't flop, but doesn't deliver.
It's the incentive structure. It's why all these companies are chasing after AI right now when it's losing billions of dollars per year. If they miss the boat on a huge new trend, they have egg on their face and it can be one of the factors that leads to their forced retirement.
Specific to gaming, no one is going to de-throne COD, Fortnite, Minecraft, etc. Those games have a lock on their player bases. So anyone looking to create a new game that can be as big as those has to do it in a different genre. For whatever set of reasons, the extraction shooter has become the area of focus recently. Companies will keep trying until there are enough failures that they give up and move on. Personally, I don't see any evidence that one of these is going to blow up into a multi-million player evergreen game. As others have said, the people who are into these seem like they're not the average COD/Fortnite type gamer.
![L*][*N*K](/data/avatars/m/842/842515.jpg?1756724107){kind=avatar}
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
False.
(Nexon) ARC Raiders, (PlayStation) Marathon and Fairgames, (Ubisoft) 2 Extraction Shooters, (Krafton) Black Budget, (Activision) DMZ 2, (Tencent)
Plus, we saw the breakout success of REPO and Lethal Company, which means those Extraction games are going to inspire even more investment into the genre.
I agree with this. I think the genre has to grow from Extraction Shooter to simply Extraction. It will.
Publishers seem to disagree with you considering how much investment they're putting into the genre.
I just think the current complaints about the Extraction genre mirror what we heard in 2017 about the Battle Royale genre.
"Out of session progression is a burden"...and yet every single player game since the invention of the save state has had out of session progression.
Now are you getting it?
We're 7 weeks away from ARC Raiders showing the world how "niche" the genre is. Better buckle up.
Evil Calvin
Afraid of Boobs
Geezus effin' christ!
This industry is so fucked!
This industry is so fucked!
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Can you explain why the Extraction Shooter "big swing" is preferable to any other genre "big swing"?I'm not trying to answer for
All major publishers are chasing after a future game that becomes as big as Fortnite, Minecraft, COD, etc. They're all publicly traded corporations, and corps are incentivized to take the biggest bets they can possibly take. CEOs of companies don't get rewarded for making small incremental upticks. They actually get punished for not delivering enough growth. At the same time, if they take big swings, they set themselves up for at least 3-5 years of salary while their vision gets a chanced to work through the pipeline. They can also get a break from the board if they take a big swing and it doesn't flop, but doesn't deliver.
Are we supposed to believe companies are chasing AI right now because...CEOs want to get a break from the board? Unless I'm misunderstanding both of you, that sounds preposterous.
They're going after this genre because they all know something that few people on NeoGAF are willing to recognize.
1. People like excitement, tension, elation, laughter. Playing games with dead face is a problem.
2. People like long form progression.
The Extraction genre arguably does 1 better than Battle Royale. PvP has never done 2.
These companies have stumbled on the formula to nuclear energy and critics are essentially saying "It won't work because it produced too much energy and hurt some people." (Escape from Tarkov is too hardcore)
Honing nuclear energy didn't happen overnight. Honing this genre won't happen overnight.
A major problem with the criticism here is that so few people can look at a genre in an objective manner. It always boils down to "I don't like...therefore it won't work." These massive, successful companies don't employ people with that mindset.
rm082e
Gold Member
I personally think it's because the heads of these corps are looking for a genre that hasn't been thoroughly explored yet, that can also support a huge online player count and microtransactions/battle passes. There are very few unexplored genres out there and this is one of them. I think Tarkov and Hunt Showdown caught the attention of some designers in the industry and the narrative started to form. Once it picked up steam, it's like they have to prove that it won't work out before the industry will let it go and move on.
I know you think this is the next big thing. I'm not here to tell you you're wrong - maybe I'm wrong. If so, I'll own it for sure. But it seems like once ARC Raiders and Marathon are each out for a few months, we'll be able to make some judgements about their overall success.
At that point, I think either you'll be wrong in that they don't blow up into a Fortnite or COD level of success (which means I would be right), or they do and I'm wrong (which will make you right). If they come out and just do okay-ish with a consistent player base that's bigger than Tarkov, but nothing like COD or Fortnite, I think you and I could both say that we're right. Unless we want to get down into predicting specific metrics for success at 3, 6, and 12 months out in their timelines. I don't because I'm not well informed enough on the details and numbers.
If a CEO talks a big game and makes big predictions around their vision, the board typically will give them enough runway to see if that idea pays off. Again, this can easily be 3+ years. If the CEO is making millions per year, it's not hard to understand that it is 100% in their interest to stay in that position every single month they can possibly hold onto the seat.
Just look at Satya Nadella right now - He's dumping billions of dollars into AI and talking about it like it's this huge revolution that's going to transform humanity. Meanwhile it's still losing money years after this campaign started. He's incentivized to keep up that hype for as long as he can so the board doesn't hold his feet to the fire. Note that he made $79 million last year. What incentive does he have to admit AI isn't taking off the way he predicted it would? What would happen to him if he admitted that?
Maybe you're right and I (along with so many others) are wrong. Maybe one of these companies will find the right secret recipe and their game will blow up. Maybe I'll have egg on my face in the future and have to examine what details I overlooked that led to me being so wrong. Like I said, if that's the case, I will own it. I share my thoughts here without any personal ego stake in being right. I'm just thinking out loud and trying to learn new things along the way.
From what I've seen of this genre, it seems like a niche thing - all the positives you just talked about are true, for a smaller percentage of the player base. But look at the long-tail success of games like Borderlands and Diablo. They cater to the opposite end of the spectrum where there's almost no consequence at all, and they've sold a hell of a lot more than all the extraction shooters combined. Meanwhile you have Bungie delaying Marathon after the beta over the summer in part because not very many people bothered to play it, and the reaction was mid at best.
My impression is the masses - not the hardcore players - don't like the length of the gameplay loop and the risk of losing their loot in this genre of game. I've yet to see any evidence that any of these games have solved those two issues in a way that gets the casual player base excited.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
We're in full agreement here.
Agreed 100%. I actually think ARC Raiders is the bellweather for the genre. If that game flops or stumbles early on I'll fully admit to being wrong about this.
That's not where I set my markers. I see ARC Raiders doing Helldivers 2 type numbers and Marathon doing better than Hunt Showdown. If both games hit around there, the genre will have likely grown 3x - 4x in the matter of 6 months. At that point, the niche narrative will have evaporated.
If there's a game in development out there that someone thinks is going to be bigger than Fortnite or Warzone...you have yourself a crazy person.
That said, I tend to think the long term trend of the Extraction genre looks more promising than any other genre in existence.
I mean...I'm pretty hyped to see where this genre goes. I can see why a CEO would be too. I'm considerably less hyped about arena shooters, metroidvanias and 2D fighters. Lots of genres feel "tapped out" to me. This, and a few others, are the next frontier.
I can't really comment on AI because I don't know enough those fields. I do know I remember hearing Amazon hadn't made a profit yet 10 or so years ago and Tim Sweeney just said Fortnite hasn't made a profit yet. It feels like captains of industry aren't looking for profit as much as the average NeoGAF member wants them to be.
We're the same in that way. I put forth ideas so the more mature NeoGAF members can poke holes in them. Learning and talking about this stuff is interesting.
Excitement and long form progression are universal. I don't think those two things are niche at all.
Marketers in all industries focus test audiences and they love it when they hear groups say "It was exciting". Art that gets our blood pumping has a huge commercial advantage over art that produces "deadface".
Now I'll agree with you that most people would prefer the excitement of a James Bond movie over the excitement of sky diving. Obviously, too much excitement can push people away. The genre needs to find its nobs there.
No question Marathon is a risk. I don't believe it's a guaranteed success (like I do with ARC Raiders). But pitting Marathon against established juggernaut like Diablo and Borderlands reminds me of that Jerry Seinfeld joke - You can't break up with a woman right away. It's like tipping over a vending machine...you have to rock it a few times before you can push it over. Established titles from an old era will have innate advantage over a title like Marathon.
Our first, most important piece of evidence hits in 40 days. We will reconvene the tribunal at that time.
Darkmakaimura
Can You Imagine What SureAI Is Going To Do With Garfield?
Whatever happened with that League of Legends MMO?
Poppinfresh
Gold Member
They lost me at "shooter"