Pulitzer Prize winning article here to explain how it could get worse
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one
I'll be Illinois by end of next month. In time to miss the big and then get wrecked by blizzards and tornados.
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Risk of big earthquake on San Andreas fault rises after quake swarm at Salton Sea
- Thread starter Septimus Prime
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I'll be Illinois by end of next month. In time to miss the big and then get wrecked by blizzards and tornados.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Can someone walk me through the premise of the emergency kit? I mean, I have one. But... My sense is that a quake bad enough to disrupt infrastructure and shut down the city will probably involve structural collapse of buildings. I mean, obviously you need water, you need food, you need light. However to give you those things, the emergency kit only works if the outside world is so destroyed that you can't make it down the street, but your house is so intact that you can get to the emergency kit and make use of it. If you're trapped under rubble, you're not being helped. If you can open your front door, you probably don't need it. Are there past studies of emergency kit effectiveness in actually saving lives? Obviously this is a counterfactual endeavor because it's hard to know how many people would have died, but I'd be interested in even very simple analyses of relative survival rates during bad disasters of families that do or don't have emergency kits, controlling for wealth and geography. Maybe it's a comforting thing to prevent panic more than an actual life-saver.
A Fish Aficionado
I am going to make it through this year if it kills me
I don't know but all through out elementary school, we had to build one at the start of the school year.
SmackDaddy
Member
This is what we get for having perfect weather all year. Damned if you do, damned if you don't
I don't know but all through out elementary school, we had to build one at the start of the school year.
Out of interest, what's your age? We never focused on any type of emergency preparedness when I was in school but I also live in Mississippi. This little emergency rolling trash can is legit.
A Fish Aficionado
I am going to make it through this year if it kills me
28, so I was about 5 when Northridge earthquake happened.
I remember the morning aftershocks and the ground undulating.
Forerunner
Member
A bit more info. It just pretty much reconfirms everything.
I don't know any actual numbers but I did a CERT training program here in California. The firefighter captain told us they generally assumed about half of his forces available would either die or be unable to respond to any type of emergency services if the big one in California hit.
An emergency kit is basically so you don't become a burden for at least a few days if you are able to walk outside your door that way supplies can be used on those that need it right away.
Just survive long enough so emergency services don't have to cater to you right away but long enough for the federal government to come in a few days later.
That being said, from my understanding I took away from the program, California has an amazing emergency program setup.
Probably doesn't answer your question but it never hurts to have one.
shit, this could really happen.
LookAtMeGo
Member
Yeah I remember that one. I was just turning the lights out to go to bed and I felt it. I lived literally right over the epicenter (if you are talking about the one in the langford/victoria area). I didnt feel the shaking much but one big shift and I heard a few deafeningly loud cracks followed by a deep low hum that I could feel through my body. Definitely the strangest feeling I've ever experienced.
I kind of feel like moving.
Well my anxiety's going to be high for a while. Moved to OC just over two years ago and felt my first ever small quake last year. Not sure I want the next one I feel to be a big one.
Forerunner
Member
I don't want to die
before I get a chance to play BF 1.
pixelation
Member
Well shit... now i am scared to go to work because i work in a 3 story high building and i work in the bottom one... 
It was pretty short, by all official reports. It's just that time feels like it massively slows down during events like those.
Already Torn
Banned
Eh... I feel life if it's the big one you'll all be dead anyway, no need to worry.Well shit... now i am scared to go to work because i work in a 3 story high building and i work in the bottom one...
aGuyInaBearSuit
Member
So this isn't the actual "big one", just one that's going to fuck shit up real bad?
That's not much comfort.
That's not much comfort.
AstroNut325
Member
I'm thinking of getting earthquake insurance. Getting kind of paranoid now!
Aftershocks. I remember there being a big one after we all woke up after final going to sleep. I think there were at least two 6+ aftershocks in the first 24 hours and hundreds of little localized ones during that week.
My dad tells the story of running out that night to help the neighbors (he's a surgeon and a trained emergency response volunteer). He says it was like something out of a horror movie, people wandering around with (superficial) bloody head wounds in a daze. I remember watching parked cars bounce around their tires, explosions from gas lines going off in the distance. The local Costco was the only place with power, 711 was only accepting straight $20 bills for items. It was a mess, and we were lucky to be in a well built affluent area (Westwood).
The noise sticks with me the most. Our house sounded like an NYC subway platform.
LookAtMeGo
Member
I read the hazard plan for if/when the cascadia fault line slips up here because I live right on the coast about a block from the ocean. I looked at all the flood zones and the best places to go to after. We got about 30 min after the quake before the tsunami hits. The escape plan is to not spend too much time being a hero. Grab anyone I can on my way to my car and hopefully its not crushed by something and head for higher gound. If it is I start running. No use searching for people or things if a 100+ft wave is headed right for me. Dont get me wrong, Id help who I can if I can but I'm not fucking around with the tsunami. I will focus my rescue efforts for after that thing hits.
Its a good thing to know about how long you have if you have to deal with a tsunami after. You can help save more lives if you dont die from not being aware of one of them coming.
Edit: no idea if the san andreas one would cause a tsunami though.
Its a good thing to know about how long you have if you have to deal with a tsunami after. You can help save more lives if you dont die from not being aware of one of them coming.
Edit: no idea if the san andreas one would cause a tsunami though.
I've watched enough Discovery Channel documentaries over the years to know to stay away from California. Seriously though it really kind of scares me off from the idea of living in that part of the country. I have one (and possibly soon two) sisters living in LA and it kind of worries me.
Septimus Prime
Member
I don't think it will, as the fault itself is landlocked.
Yeah, it's hard to say. And I think the areas protected from the coast (like Seattle and maybe Victoria) are probably safe.
Ah right, the after shocks. That's what I was thinking. And yeah, the noise was definitely the most memorable thing about it. We were pretty lucky in that there was virtually no damage in our area, but we heard a lot of ruckus.
My mom's gonna be in LA during that time frame. Now I'm worried as all hell...
layzie1989
Member
Never felt safer living on the first floor of a building built in 1929 -_-
First sign of shaking I'm diving for the spot under my desk
First sign of shaking I'm diving for the spot under my desk
CraigerGamer
Member
No. the SA fault isn't a convergent fault like Cascadia or the fault that surrounds the Pacific Ocean (ring of fire, part of the Cascadia Fault). The SA fault moves parallel to each other and when it slips, it doesn't displace a whole bunch of mass back INTO the ground. Convergent faults however begin to lift the crust of the earth higher because as 1 plate goes underneath the other it gets stuck and the resulting land begins to wrinkle onto itself and rise. When the fault goes, the land springs back into place but also falls downward displacing whatever is underneath it. In most cases, in that region, it's water.
maquiladora
Member
MrMephistoX
Gold Member
Oh great...I just moved here last year! Where I live in Arcadia/San Gabriel valley seems like it might fare better than LA with the added bonus of less rioting and looting at least.
My building is from 10s/20s too I think, not sure when exactly but it's protected by the historical society.
So I look at it this way: It's been standing this long, seen some shit...maybe we're good? Yes? Yes...keep saying it.
Yeah, >7 would be catastrophic damage.. if it were near 8 or above, I guess it would be 'The Big One'. It seems the odds of this swarm causing it are not that significant. Sadly, there's usually no warning before these major ones strike.
The root system in the trees in the park across from my house are old and wind regularly blows them over so an earthquake of that size might cause quite a few of them to come down, but none are large enough to hit any homes.
I'm around half an hour to an hour out from LA (on a good day with no massive traffic)
I'm around half an hour to an hour out from LA (on a good day with no massive traffic)
MrMephistoX
Gold Member
Yeah we have a tree lined street where I lived and a huge park in Arcadia. Think that might be an issue too.
Yeah that's more up to date; OP article had 1% as the low end and 1 in 3000 as the high estimate as of Tuesday. As each day passes chances get lower and lower.
Livingskeletons
If I pulled that off, would you die?
Maybe it will scare some of the transplants away.
On a serious note a minute is a long time for an earthquake. Northridge brought the city to its knees and it was only a couple seconds.
On a serious note a minute is a long time for an earthquake. Northridge brought the city to its knees and it was only a couple seconds.
Theres a long patch of green woth a walkway that goes parallel to my street. The trees are large but I think theyd have to be larger to stretch across either road and hit a house. But they'll definitely block roads so that's an issue. I think a fire engine wouldn't have a problem but an average sedan sized car would.
What is this supposed "THE big one" that I often hear my friends from California talk about? Is that like a state ending earthquake?
I think in the worst case scenario it turns california into an island?
Icyflamez96
Member
What's the worst case scenario o.o
Could trigger a swarm of earthquakes in yellowstone and also trigger an supereruption.
LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
I was in Northridge going to Northridge Middle School when this happened haha
HideyoshiJP
Member
Hazardous Metal
Member
How fucked is Nanaimo and other locations on the east side of Vancouver Island? Speaking about both the San Andreas fault line earthquake and the Cascadia earthquake (and their respective tsunamis).
I'm really scared right now. Enough to make me move to mainland BC. Ugh.
I'm really scared right now. Enough to make me move to mainland BC. Ugh.
Impossible. The two plates are grinding past one another, not separating. Eventually (as in millions of years from now), California will be an island up near Alaska, but that isn't something that happens in a single quake.
The worst case scenario is an 8.0+ quake that massively disrupts infrastructure in ways that cannot be remedied in a reasonable amount of time. Something that big would damage or destroy electrical stations and, more importantly, could destroy the pipelines that bring water into the Los Angeles area. If one of those pipelines is damaged out in the desert, you're talking a week to fix it with everything in working order. With the chaos of the aftermath and emergency services and repair services taxed to the limit, Los Angeles could be without fresh water for weeks. That's not even taking into account fires, freeway collapses, aftershocks, and other structural damage that could make disaster relief difficult or impossible. You're talking about a total breakdown of communication and shipping in the SoCal area for up to a month or more.
It would not be good. In the case of a really big quake, your best bet is to get the hell out of Los Angeles as soon as possible. Unfortunately, that may not be possible.
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