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[AssMan]

Originally Posted by snapty00:
I don't think Nintendo's system will be the "independent" one long-term.

Here's how I figure it'll go:

1.) All three machines will come out.
2.) Nintendo's will be somewhat cheaper to develop for initially because of the libraries and tools provided.
3.) Some developers will jump on board with Nintendo.
4.) These developers will make a few "independent" and niche games for Nintendo's systems that fail to capture any real interest among consumers.
5.) Nintendo's system starts tanking faster than GameCube.
6.) Microsoft and Sony make their tools as easy to use because of all the outcry from developers and Nintendo.
7.) These independent developers realize that they actually have to make money to stay in business, so they switch to Sony's and Microsoft's machines.

Psychic!




Gamecube, right? =P

 

[snapty00]

I can feel the GameCube running through my veins!

 

[vireland]

Working Designs, Atlus, Nippon Ichi, and numerous other small time studios, get a big boost out choosing to develop for the PS2 not because it's Sony, or "mainstream", or "mature", but because it has the largest installed userbase.

100% right. If you need to sell millions or half-millions to mainstream gamers SEGAs direction might be correct. But for what we do, pulling 100,000 units out of a 30 million userbase is much more reliable than doing it in a userbase of 7-10 million. On the localization side it also has to do with platform popularity since if the system doesn't have the games in Japan (XBOX), it's difficult to impossible to find anything to do anyway.

 

[Che]

I don't think Nintendo's system will be the "independent" one long-term.

Here's how I figure it'll go:

1.) All three machines will come out.
2.) Nintendo's will be somewhat cheaper to develop for initially because of the libraries and tools provided.
3.) Some developers will jump on board with Nintendo.
4.) These developers will make a few "independent" and niche games for Nintendo's systems that fail to capture any real interest among consumers.
5.) Nintendo's system starts tanking faster than GameCube.
6.) Microsoft and Sony make their tools as easy to use because of all the outcry from developers and Nintendo.
7.) These independent developers realize that they actually have to make money to stay in business, so they switch to Sony's and Microsoft's machines.

Psychic!

Hey look the way I see it:


1..) All three machines will come out.
2..)Nintendo's will be the best o' the best and will desroy all
3..)All the rest including Gizmodo will become Nintendo;s third-party
4..)For the next two hundrend years Nintendo will be the king of the industry without any worthy rival.

Nasty!

 

[The End]

100% right. If you need to sell millions or half-millions to mainstream gamers SEGAs direction might be correct. But for what we do, pulling 100,000 units out of a 30 million userbase is much more reliable than doing it in a userbase of 7-10 million. On the localization side it also has to do with platform popularity since if the system doesn't have the games in Japan (XBOX), it's difficult to impossible to find anything to do anyway.

I saw GG in Bestbuy last night.

Congrats on getting such wide distribution.

 

[radioheadrule83]

Bad translation or not, the guy still makes more sense than you guys are giving him credit for. He is part of running a video game company after all, whereas most people here run... er..

Development costs went up this generation and what might be a shake out began... MS and EA have made several acquisitions, other developers have gone bust. Look at what's happened, all because of the costs in this game: Acclaim, Criterion, Argonaut, Rage, Square-Enix Merger, SEGA.... ones to watch out for next gen: EIDOS, Midway, Codemasters, and umpteen small development studios, who really knows?

Even EA have said it's gonna be tough for the small fish to survive next gen.

Now regarding what he said about Nintendo... the typical skeptical response was to point to massive third party support of PS2, and so forth. Now, I agree that developers have a safer bet on their hands with the biggest userbase, but we don't know that the respective userbases will contrast as much as they have this generation. WILL there be a safe bet? And forgive me, but what does PS2 hardware itself actually have to do with next generation? PS3 might well be backwards compatable, and it will quite obviously inherit a large userbase from PS2, but as far as architecture and development costs go? What do we really know? Likewise for Nintendo's system. They could be vastly different beasts.

This industry has an eerie habit of making good out of wealthy underdogs. Nintendo, Sony and MS have all been there before... this assumptive underestimation is putting Nintendo there again.

Snapty00 - you are a broken record that is reassuredly painful to listen to. Why exactly do you go into Nintendo threads?

 

[DrGAKMAN]

Nintendo should:
-increase thier own in-house output (THESE should be their exclussives to sell the system, the more there are, the less dry spells and less chances for gamers to get distracted by other systems...if the library is large, it increases the user-base and THEN 3RD parties will follow...they can't expect 3RD parties to just jump on and stay on)
-diversify it as well (Nintendo can no longer rely on 3RD parties to fill in the gaps in their library)
-increase thier collaborations (and be involved so as to keep those collaboration exclussive)
-concentrate less on plain "exclussives" ('cos 3RD parties will either use the "it's not selling enough" excuse or the "it'll sell better on PlayStation" excuse to port these games eventually)
-concentrate more on getting games that are available on Xenon & PS3 (for instance, if a game comes out for Xenon & PS3 but NOT Revolution, then Nintendo should bend over backwords for that developer to make sure not to be alienated like they were this generation)
-make porting to & from their systems easier (big problem with GAMECUBE is this is odd due to tools, controller & format constraints)
-don't give developers any excuse to not make games for them (embrace online gaming, embrace adult games more, etc.)
-buy Bandai

If Nintendo can't or isn't willing to do some/all of these things then they should stop pretending to "compete" and just stick with their profitable niche and be the NeO*GeO of next generation. If 3RD parties are gonna say that the only games that sell on Nintendo systems are Nintendo's own games then SCREW them and go back to the super-profitable early days of the NES where Nintendo just concentrated on making Nintendo games and made money on their own hardware and software. If a 3RD parties aren't willing to make a ninja game or a horror game or whatever kind of game for them...Nintendo needs to collaborate with someone or make their own! If 3RD parties aren't gonna help Nintendo, then Nintendo needs to help themselves.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

I think the smaller PC devs will survive, because of MS' willingness to lure and work with them. More Pc devs will jump ship to console. This generation saw the jump of many prominent PC developers to consoles, and the consoles becoming more PC like in features and architecture.

Smaller traditionally console devs may recieve a shakedown though. Unless they side with the "Budget publishers" like XS+ and Majesco, and the aforementioned publishers make gains in sales, or bigger houses seek them, they'll be dismantled.

 

[Laurent]

Nintendo should:

I stopped reading right there... :lol

 

[DrGAKMAN]

I stopped reading right there... :lol

I dunno why it's so fasionable to kick me recently.

But anyways, I'm a Nintendo fan and I'm willing to admit they need to fix some things next generation...why is that so disagreeable?

 

[Operations]

Sega COO seems pretty confident that the PS3 will also launch in 2005.

 

[The End]

it may, in japan.

 

[Gaia Theory]

Y'know, all these armchair business ideas are interesting to read, but we all have to realize that Nintendo is a profitable company year after year.

They obviously know how to make money. So, as long as they're making money, I'm not sure how much they actually care to be number 1.

I picture Nintendo like Apple. Take from that what you will.

 

[element]

2.) Nintendo's will be somewhat cheaper to develop for initially because of the libraries and tools provided.

No one is going to beat Microsoft at their own game, which is tools and documentation. MS is the leader and will continue to be the leader next generation in tools, documentation, and support.

3.) Some developers will jump on board with Nintendo.

I'm sure some will.

6.) Microsoft and Sony make their tools as easy to use because of all the outcry from developers and Nintendo.

Look above. MS tools and docs are already the best in the industry.

7.) These independent developers realize that they actually have to make money to stay in business, so they switch to Sony's and Microsoft's machines.

That is if they don't do games for the systems in the first place.

To say that small dev can only survive on a Nintendo console is dumb, especially since the 'rumored' specs are suppose to be similar among all systems, and most people say that Nintendo's system will be more powerful then Xenon.

So how does that logic make sense if Revolution is going to be more powerful, yet easier to develop for? These Sega comments make be think Nintendo is going to make a Gamecube Plus (more powerful, just not near what PS3 and Xenon will be), and focus on content.

 

[Link316]

I picture Nintendo like Apple. Take from that what you will.

Nintendo used to be Dell

 

[Drinky Crow]

EVERY FUCKING NEW CONSOLE RELEASE, I SWEAR

 

[Hermit]

Gaming-wise, it would be great for Nintendo enthousiasts. Money-wise, it definitely won't be attractive for Nintendo. As a gamer, I really hope the new Nintendo console'll turn out to be a haven for smaller studios and revolutionairy, highly creative and artistic new games. Sadly, this prolly won't be enough to keep Nintendo going for long. Meh.

 

[mr2mike]

I dont think there wil be a lack of room on next gen consoles for small developpers, and if there was, why would there magically be room on nintendo's hardware?

What I think will be the problem is that the independants will take longer to adapt to the development effort needed to push out competitive next gn games. In that way, I think we could see the next gen last much beyond the current 5 year cycle we've been seeing. The First year and a half-ish for all consoles could be slim indeed save for major tudio releases as indies continue to milk the massive PS2 userbase while they build themselves up for the then current gen.Ihat way, the next consoles could only startg their really healthy lives around their second christmas.

That, or as it's been said before, middleware will be HUGE.

But seriousely, the one that's most likely gonna clean up on indies is likely to be MS, as they've had dev kits out for awhile and aren't using any newfangled computothingamajig processor, AND are sticking to their usual and well known development tools. Not necessarely the early launch to market, but the early launch to development could be a huuuuge legup when developpers choose where their efforts are going to yield the greatest return: this is likely to be a launch where the wrangling of new hardware and looming launch deadlines play much lesser roles, and when publishers consider wich ventures could yield a good productivity rate, because light dev cycle = less budget.

 

[Mashing]

I'm beginning to thing that the statement is a jab at Nintendo and it userbase, because all other explanations don't seem to make any sense. Musashi Wins is quite right--it's Sony that's benenfited from niche support the most. Nintendo has recieved token support with things like VJ, and when those games proved moderately popular they saw their way to the PS2.

I disagree... and the sales numbers would back me up. Why would Sega want to alienate it's most lucrative fanbase atm?

 

[Agent X]

If Nintendo starts to nuture small devs, only good things will come. If Nintendo is seen as a haven for small devs, only good things will come. The fact that Sega thinks this is the case is quite interesting.

The Nokia N-Gage and Tapwave Zodiac systems both have lots of small developers making games for them.

You and I are usually on the same page, but you're right - GTA is a bad example . There are some ideas that you know could be mainstream hits just from the concept. These are games that have little to no "risk" factor to their design. GTA is the most obvious example of such an idea. Every single kid that plays games says at one time or another that they "wish they could play a game where you can do anything". It's not that creative, really. It's the incredibly creative ideas that are at risk here.

Please elaborate on how GTA is "not that creative."

I'm sure that early video game designers in 1972 thought that it would be great if they could make a game with the combination of the depth and the freedom offered by the GTA games, just that the technology to do so on that scale just wasn't available back then. So, because DMA Design finally brought that idea to fruition nearly three decades later meant that they weren't creative and didn't take any risks? That makes no sense.

It's not about "a game where you can do anything," because in GTA you clearly cannot do "anything." It's about creating an environment that has definition, where you have you a wide amount of freedom in deciding what you want your character to do, but there are still certain set rules and restrictions (such as laws of physics).

In that regard, you could contend that GTA is not the originator of open-ended gameplay, because as I said, many game designers have aspired to do this over the years. Castlevania might not seem so open-ended compared to GTA, but in its time, it was far more open than, oh, let's say Dig Dug. But Dig Dug, in its time, was more open-ended than Space Invaders.

This one-upmanship in the concept of open-ended game design has already occurred countless times...it's not new, and it's not going to stop now, either. Someday, another game will come along that will raise the bar again, and make GTA look like an awfully restrictive game by comparison. But as it stands now, GTA is one of the pinnacles of open-ended design. To quickly dismiss it as being "not creative" is showing that you don't recognize what kind of hard work it takes to craft a game like that.

 

[AniHawk]

I disagree... and the sales numbers would back me up. Why would Sega want to alienate it's most lucrative fanbase atm?

It's Sega.

 

[jarrod]

4.) These developers will make a few "independent" and niche games for Nintendo's systems that fail to capture any real interest among consumers.

Or just the opposite...

 

[jarrod]

100% right. If you need to sell millions or half-millions to mainstream gamers SEGAs direction might be correct. But for what we do, pulling 100,000 units out of a 30 million userbase is much more reliable than doing it in a userbase of 7-10 million. On the localization side it also has to do with platform popularity since if the system doesn't have the games in Japan (XBOX), it's difficult to impossible to find anything to do anyway.

It can work in reverse though too, a game can really strike a chord with a smaller more dedicated userbase. Look at Tales of Symphonia for example, it's on track to be one of the best selling RPGs this year. Or Natsume/Victor with Harvest Moon, that's game's outsold every previous HM game already and looks to be Nastume's top seller for the generation. All this on the measily GameCube base... honestly, every platform has a large enough userbase to support 'niche' releases.

 

[ge-man]

It's Sega.

It's more like Sammy IMO. I don't think Sega itself has a problem with Cube support. They can't when they managed to sell a boat load on a DC port while one their new game series thrived on the system.

 

[Link316]

Smaller traditionally console devs may recieve a shakedown though. Unless they side with the "Budget publishers" like XS+ and Majesco, and the aforementioned publishers make gains in sales, or bigger houses seek them, they'll be dismantled.

yeah there's plenty of budget games on the PS2 so their rant doesn't make much sense, my guess is Sega wants to make small budget games but sell them for full price, that's probably what the whining is about because they can't do that on Sony or MS consoles due to all the software competition

 

[radioheadrule83]

yeah there's plenty of budget games on the PS2 so their rant doesn't make much sense, my guess is Sega wants to make small budget games but sell them for full price, that's probably what the whining is about because they can't do that on Sony or MS consoles due to all the software competition

Whining? What ?? Positive suggestion regards Nintendo platforms next gen = whining?

And: Small devs != budget games and budget retail prices.

 

[CO_Andy]

One of the advantages & disavantages of the DS iz that it isn't a graphics powerhouse like the PSP. In turn, developers can hav a more relax development time to make their games.

 

[Link316]

And: Small devs != budget games and budget retail prices.

yeah but that's not what Sega is saying,
"software design houses will be required to put more manpower and capital into developing new games to cope with demand. So I think that there will be no room for small-scale design houses to survive in the software market for these consoles"

 

[kaching]

Development costs went up this generation and what might be a shake out began...

Development costs have gone up with each generation and there are plenty of game companies that have fallen by the wayside over the course of the entire life of the videogame industry. These are not trends that started with this current gen.

Even EA have said it's gonna be tough for the small fish to survive next gen.

I'm sure EA isn't going to do anything to make it easier on them and certainly wouldn't mind absorbing some of their assets, so why is this any surprise?

 

[DJ Sl4m]

Pinning such hopes on small developers is wasted time, the only thing small developers did for the 3DO & Atari Jaguar was bring embarassment.

Expect a horrible library of very unpolished games.

 

[Pimpwerx]

The market as a whole is consolidating. It's been happening since the 32bit era, if not before that. I don't think a Nintendo system is gonna be any different when you consider most resources will be spent on art. Unless the Revolution's hook is a throwback to 2D graphics, I don't buy it. PEACE.

 

[sc0la]

However, small-scale software companies may be able to shift their efforts into developing games based on Nintendo IPs for handsets or Nintendo consoles.

O_O

 

[ImNotLikeThem]

could they perhaps have meant Nintendo handheld consoles? seeing as it comes right after cellphone games, it would make sense at least.

 

[jarrod]

could they perhaps have meant Nintendo handheld consoles? seeing as it comes right after cellphone games, it would make sense at least.

This is actually pretty likely, espeically since Sega likely has little to no information about Revolution yet (and if EA doesn't know anything yet, you can be sure Sega knows even less). DS could be a haven't for smaller and mobile developers.