sonycowboy
Member
OK, Nov NPD sucked for everybody not Microsoft. You could argue Activision had a nice bounce from last year, but Tony Hawk had a big fall, and COD didn't do the numbers many expected. The DS made a nice splash, but given the limited launch shipment, it was a guaranteed sellout. The December numbers should be really good for it.
However, December is THE month for videogames. Sales are over twice as much as November and every title in the list below, showed significant increases in December over November.
Based on these numbers, I think
1) MGS3 & MP:E will experience a nice bounce. Not enough to offset the disappointment, but they should both do very well.
2) Those who think Halo 2 is going to have a severe decline will be eating even more crow. Looking at the history for the past several years. ALMOST EVERY SINGLE TITLE has had substantial bounces in December over November. You can say that Halo 2 was frontloaded all you want, but I doubt the dynamics are so much different for this game vs any other hyped/anticipated game. It's just larger.
I will concede that it will be tough for it to match November's monster sales, but it does have history on it's side. In addition, I think it's chances for over 2M for the month are extremely, extremely high. December buyers are a different group than normal buyers. It's moms, dads, aunts, uncles, grandma, grandpa, etc and junior wants him some Halo.
The BIG question
How much are Halo 2, GTA, & NFSU 2 going to continue to put pressure on all other titles? Sales growth YOY excluding these two titles was very negative and clearly shows that these games are eating the other guys alive.
Will the other titles have a chance at the sales they had hoped for?
Historical NPD Dollar Sales
Year Nov Dec
2002 713M 1,513M (well over 2*)
2003 764M 1,707 (again, well over 2*)
2004 840M ??
Historical Units over 100k
Year Nov Dec
2002 33 95
2003 33 113 :O :O
Historical Units over 400k
Year Nov Dec
2002 1 14
2003 3 12
2004 4 ??
Last Years Sales Top 100 Nov vs Dec
However, December is THE month for videogames. Sales are over twice as much as November and every title in the list below, showed significant increases in December over November.
Based on these numbers, I think
1) MGS3 & MP:E will experience a nice bounce. Not enough to offset the disappointment, but they should both do very well.
2) Those who think Halo 2 is going to have a severe decline will be eating even more crow. Looking at the history for the past several years. ALMOST EVERY SINGLE TITLE has had substantial bounces in December over November. You can say that Halo 2 was frontloaded all you want, but I doubt the dynamics are so much different for this game vs any other hyped/anticipated game. It's just larger.
I will concede that it will be tough for it to match November's monster sales, but it does have history on it's side. In addition, I think it's chances for over 2M for the month are extremely, extremely high. December buyers are a different group than normal buyers. It's moms, dads, aunts, uncles, grandma, grandpa, etc and junior wants him some Halo.
The BIG question
How much are Halo 2, GTA, & NFSU 2 going to continue to put pressure on all other titles? Sales growth YOY excluding these two titles was very negative and clearly shows that these games are eating the other guys alive.
Will the other titles have a chance at the sales they had hoped for?
Historical NPD Dollar Sales
Year Nov Dec
2002 713M 1,513M (well over 2*)
2003 764M 1,707 (again, well over 2*)
2004 840M ??
Historical Units over 100k
Year Nov Dec
2002 33 95
2003 33 113 :O :O
Historical Units over 400k
Year Nov Dec
2002 1 14
2003 3 12
2004 4 ??
Last Years Sales Top 100 Nov vs Dec
Code:
[b]Format Title Publisher Nov-03 Dec-03[/b]
GCN MARIO KART: DOUBLE NINTENDO OF AMERICA 527,742 729,797
PS2 MEDAL HONOR RISING ELECTRONIC ARTS 420,313 587,360
PS2 FINAL FANTASY X-2 SQUARE ENIX USA 402,973 554,300
XBX GRAND THEFT AUTO PACK ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2) 391,315 402,201
PS2 SOCOM II: NAVY SEALS SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY) 380,182 477,257
PS2 NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND ELECTRONIC ARTS 370,450 1,120,576
PS2 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND ACTIVISION 359,924 707,522
PS2 TRUE CRIME:STREETS LA ACTIVISION 354,448 607,315
PS2 MADDEN NFL 2004 ELECTRONIC ARTS 257,007 784,347
PS2 WWE: HERE COMES PAIN THQ 236,303 295,082
PS2 LORD RING:RETURN KING ELECTRONIC ARTS 233,197 446,490
GCN MARIO PARTY 5 NINTENDO OF AMERICA 213,495 329,331
XBX TRUE CRIME:STREETS LA ACTIVISION 198,245 206,906
PS2 NBA LIVE 2004 ELECTRONIC ARTS 177,715 390,144
XBX HALO MICROSOFT 161,039 338,712
PS2 JAK II SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY) 156,572 279,123
PS2 EYE TOY SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY) 146,063 256,828
XBX T. CLANCYS RAINBOW 3 UBISOFT 140,216 232,232
PS2 RATCHET & CLANK:GOING SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY) 125,162 268,385
XBX NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND ELECTRONIC ARTS 115,165 308,989
XBX MEDAL HONOR RISING ELECTRONIC ARTS 114,833 178,516
PS2 KINGDOM HEARTS SQUARE EA (SQUARE ENIX USA) 111,072 204,201
PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO PACK ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2) 110,796 242,375
PS2 SIMPSONS: HIT & RUN VIVENDI UNIVERSAL 107,856 377,103
PS2 SOCOM W/O HEADSET SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY) 101,413 241,461
PS2 FIFA SOCCER 2004 ELECTRONIC ARTS 100,782 125,039
PS2 SSX 3 ELECTRONIC ARTS 96,016 192,483
GCN YU-GI-OH! FALSEBOUND KONAMI OF AMERICA 95,891 133,553
PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO 3 ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2) 95,409 142,873
XBX LORD RING:RETURN KING ELECTRONIC ARTS 94,559 176,762
PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO:VICE ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2) 90,056 170,382
XBX TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND ACTIVISION 84,784 173,119
PS2 TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 ELECTRONIC ARTS 83,392 242,624
GCN SUPER SMASH BRO MELEE NINTENDO OF AMERICA 83,056 215,340
XBX COUNTER STRIKE MICROSOFT 80,694 127,333
PS2 PAC-MAN WORLD 2 NAMCO 78,385 138,845
GCN LORD RING:RETURN KING ELECTRONIC ARTS 76,841 143,397
GCN LUIGI'S MANSION NINTENDO OF AMERICA 75,667 159,723
PS2 MANHUNT ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2) 75,369 192,027
PS2 MEDAL HONOR FRONTLINE ELECTRONIC ARTS 73,276 151,240
PS2 IHRA DRAG RACING 2 BETHESDA SOFTWORKS 72,141 52,317
PS2 SPONGEBOB: BATTLE THQ 71,056 227,860
XBX PROJECT GOTHAM 2 MICROSOFT 70,723 158,151
PS2 SUPER TRUCKS RACING XS GAMES 70,089 33,386
PS2 TAK AND POWER OF JUJU THQ 69,454 150,077
GCN KIRBY AIR RIDE NINTENDO OF AMERICA 69,311 98,983
GCN TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND ACTIVISION 69,290 142,434
PS2 NEED SPEED: PURSUIT 2 ELECTRONIC ARTS 67,994 150,234
GCN SUPER MARIO SUNSHINE NINTENDO OF AMERICA 67,705 156,792
GCN DRAGONBALL Z: BUDOKAI ATARI 66,186 122,762
PS2 FORD RACING 2 GOTHAM GAMES (TAKE 2) 65,966 43,692
PS2 SIMPSONS: ROAD RAGE ELECTRONIC ARTS 65,907 100,948
PS2 DISNEY'S FINDING NEMO THQ 65,453 139,259
PS2 NAMCO MUSEUM NAMCO 65,426 143,313
PS2 NCAA FOOTBALL 2004 ELECTRONIC ARTS 64,518 188,469
PS2 TEENAGE MUTANT TURTLE KONAMI OF AMERICA 64,005 117,746
PS2 TEKKEN 4 NAMCO 63,765 106,412
PS2 SCOOBY-DOO:100 FRIGHT THQ 62,389 120,442
PS2 KILL.SWITCH NAMCO 62,046 98,897
PS2 FINAL FANTASY X SQUARE EA (SQUARE ENIX USA) 61,961 159,875
PS2 TONY HAWKS PRO SKATR4 ACTIVISION 61,617 162,322
GCN SW:ROGUE SQUADRON III LUCASARTS ENTERTAINMENT 59,851 89,228
PS2 RATCHET & CLANK SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY) 59,268 148,969
PS2 HARRY POTTER:QUIDDTCH ELECTRONIC ARTS 59,011 134,785
XBX MADDEN NFL 2004 ELECTRONIC ARTS 58,550 182,148
PS2 DRAGONBALL Z: BUDOKAI ATARI 58,332 184,814
GCN BURNOUT ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT 57,106 36,230
GCN NASCAR THUNDER 2003 ELECTRONIC ARTS 54,961 13,019
XBX MORROWIND:GAME YEAR BETHESDA SOFTWORKS 54,574 52,341
PS2 CASTLEVANIA: LAMENT KONAMI OF AMERICA 54,251 67,361
PS2 PRINCE PERSIA: SANDS UBISOFT 54,077 218,554
PS2 SPIDER-MAN: THE MOVIE ACTIVISION 53,643 170,007
PS2 GRAN TURISMO 3:A-SPEC SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY) 52,851 144,330
PS2 HITMAN 2: ASSASSIN EIDOS INTERACTIVE 51,774 90,701
PS2 CRASH BANDICOOT:CORTX VIVENDI UNIVERSAL 51,083 112,016
XBX T. CLANCYS SPLINTER UBISOFT (CORP) 50,877 109,341
GCN TRUE CRIME:STREETS LA ACTIVISION 50,435 87,128
XBX T.CLANCYS GHOST RECON UBI SOFT 50,409 116,960
PS2 NCAA MARCH MDNSS 2004 ELECTRONIC ARTS 50,393 178,894
PS2 ACE COMBAT 4 NAMCO 50,009 84,061
XBX SW: JEDI ACADEMY LUCASARTS ENTERTAINMENT 48,816 88,338
PS2 TEST DRIVE ATARI 48,464 87,205
PS2 JAK AND DAXTER:LEGACY SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY) 48,413 114,612
PS2 ENTER THE MATRIX ATARI 48,239 94,939
PS2 JURASSIC PARK:GENESIS VIVENDI UNIVERSAL 48,237 7,230
GCN HARRY POTTER:QUIDDTCH ELECTRONIC ARTS 47,992 93,725
PS2 SEEK AND DESTROY CONSPIRACY 46,743 58,730
PS2 MORTAL KOMBAT: DEADLY MIDWAY 45,713 85,746
PS2 NASCAR THUNDER 2004 ELECTRONIC ARTS 45,649 108,559
GCN SPONGEBOB: BATTLE THQ 45,497 113,792
XBX NBA LIVE 2004 ELECTRONIC ARTS 45,336 98,109
PS2 CONFLICT: DESERT II GOTHAM GAMES (TAKE 2) 44,932 80,254
GCN MEDAL HONOR RISING ELECTRONIC ARTS 44,859 82,289
PS2 LEGACY KAIN: DEFIANCE EIDOS INTERACTIVE 44,569 43,479
XBX PRINCE PERSIA: SANDS UBISOFT 43,879 128,580
PS2 WWE: SHUT YOUR MOUTH THQ 43,648 82,943
GCN TAK AND POWER OF JUJU THQ 43,405 91,299
PS2 T.CLANCYS GHOST RECON UBI SOFT 42,357 167,621
PS2 MIDWAY ARCADE TRSURES MIDWAY 41,754 121,611
PS2 CABELAS DEER HUNT 2K4 ACTIVISION