Why the next twist in Syria could bring greater horrors than Assad
The 13-year rebellion against Bashar al-Assad’s regime may be over, but Syria’s civil war may not be
It took just 11 days to end the 13-year rebellion against Bashar al-Assad, an offensive so rapid that what unfolds next in Syria itself is, to an extent, anyone’s guess.
What is clear is that the dial of history is shifting again in the Middle East, not for the first time in the tumultuous 14 months since Hamas carried out its massacre in Israel on Oct 7 last year.
Over the coming days and weeks, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East will be redrawn further as power in Syria shifts from Assad’s Alawite minority, a Shia offshoot, to the country’s Sunni Arab majority.
Both Shia Iran and Russia will lose their most important Arab client. Russia, whose ruthless aerial bombardment helped Assad to recapture rebel-held cities, looks set to lose its naval base at Tartus and air base at Hmeimim to the north, depriving Vladimir Putin of a foothold on the eastern Mediterranean.
But Mr Putin has other options in the region, most notably in Libya, where Russia supports Khalifa Haftar, the warlord who controls most of the country.
Iran, on the other hand, is far more weakened. Israeli military action has hollowed out its most important non-state allies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
The fall of the Assad regime, which Iran could do little to prevent, leaves Tehran shorn of its most important client state, one which acted as a vital land bridge between Iran and Lebanon through which it could rearm and resupply Hezbollah.
The magnitude of the calamity is very apparent in Iran. Assad’s fall was “one of the most significant events in the history of the Middle East,” Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former vice president, said.
Iran’s network of proxies across the Middle East would be left without support, he added, warning that “Israel would become the dominant force.”
With the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin has lost a foothold on the eastern Mediterranean
With the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin has lost a foothold on the eastern Mediterranean.
Israel is certainly likely to emerge stronger if a Sunni regime in Syria seals the main land corridor along which Iranian weapons to Hezbollah flows. It will also welcome the further weakening of Iran.
However, there will also be concern about what emerges in Assad’s place.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist rebel faction that mounted the offensive which led to Assad’s downfall — and which is now likely to play a very influential role in shaping Syria’s future — is very much an unknown quantity.
It was an affiliate of al-Qaeda until severing ties in 2017, a move that did not convince the United States to lift its terrorist designation of the group.
Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, served five years in various US detention facilities in Iraq, including at Abu Ghraib, and had ties to both al-Qaeda and ISIS. The United States still has a $10 million (£7.8 million) bounty on his head.
He has, however, moderated his tone, softened his image and preached a message of inclusivity that has been sufficient to convince, at least partially, some Western policymakers that he has genuinely mellowed.
As his forces swept southwards from the patch of territory HTS held in Idlib Province near the Turkish border, Jolani reached out to Iran and Israel as well as to Syria’s nervous Alawite and Christian minorities to assure them that the transition of power would be orderly and that no ethnic reprisals would be taken.
His officials have also worked cordially with members of the Assad regime, including Mr Assad’s prime minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, to ensure an orderly hand over of power. The bloodbath some feared as the rebels entered Damascus has not so far materialised.
Beyond HTS, however, there are numerous other rebel factions, from Turkish-backed factions to Kurdish dominated groups, not to mention Isis, heavily weakened but still in control of a sliver of Syrian territory and still able to launch localised attacks.
For the moment, there is great optimism in Syria that a new democratic era is dawning.
“We are living through historic moments as we witness the fall of the authoritarian regime in Damascus,” said Mazloum Abdi, the commander of Syrian Democratic Forces, a US-backed, Kurdish-led armed group.
“This change presents an opportunity to build a new Syria based on democracy and justice that guarantees the rights of all Syrians.”
Such optimism may prove well-founded. Yet it is also a reminder that the country’s factions will look to secure a place in the new Syria – and that they still have their guns if they do not get what they want.
Given that there is unlikely to be much of a restraining hand from the incoming Trump administration, disgruntled armed groups may be even more emboldened to act.
Commenting on the events in Syria this weekend, Donald Trump made it clear that he wishes to remain well clear of the fray when he takes power in January, saying that “this is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved.”
In other words, the 13-year rebellion against Bashar al-Assad may be over. Syria’s civil war may not be.
