Support NeoGAF

[IbizaPocholo]

Take-Two CEO says games are ten years from photorealism

Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick believes the future of games looks very good, photorealistic even.

www.gamesindustry.biz

Speaking at the UBS Global TMT Virtual Conference today, Zelnick shared his optimism around the games industry's future, saying a growing audience, advances in technology, and other factors will help make the next 30-40 years "the most exciting yet" for games.

"I'm guessing [Take-Two's] business in ten years looks very different than it does today in the same way that it looks very different today than it did ten years ago when there was no mobile business and no recurrent consumer spending," Zelnick said.

"And I can't quite say what that will involve, but I think what you're going to see is technology will allow our creative folks to do things they've never been able to do before, including make games that look exactly like live-action.

"Some of what we do now looks a lot like live-action, but it's still animation. In 10 years, you'll have the option if you want to make things that look completely realistic, all done inside a computer, never mind all the other advances technology will enable."

Add to that gaming's mix of traditional narratives akin to other media with gameplay and increasing social integrations and features, and Zelnick believes the future for games as a whole is exceedingly bright.

"All of those things lead me to believe there will be massive moves in our business -- many of which we can't entirely predict -- massive growth in the business, and there will be a lot of dynamic opportunity both in terms of what we can do creatively and what we can do on the business side to exploit that creativity," Zelnick said.

 

[Darkmakaimura]

Elder Scrolls VI is gonna look beast.

 

[ReBurn]

Can he tell us when GTA 6 is gonna come out?

 

[Kenpachii]

As long as gaming revolves around consoles that will not happen in 10 years

 

[Tschumi]

How many polygons on a pebble? Surely a finite amount. And isn't the next unreal engine already achieving that stuff? Yeah doesn't seem too unrealistic if they can get efficiency up there~

 

[mickaus]

So Take Two is saying that GTA 5 for the late-in-life PS6 in 2030 will look as different to GTA 5 for PS5 in 2020, that GTA 5 on PS5 looks different to GTA 5 on PS3?

 

[HundredThousandTrillion]

As long as gaming revolves around consoles that will not happen in 10 years

If you need a powerful PC or a console to enjoy a game 10 years from now we've done something wrong.

 

[kikkis]

Tim Sweeney said that maybe 40 teraflops is enough for photorealism, and while not fan favorite he has bit more credentials in tech space than T2 ceo. 3090 has 35 teraflops and personally I don't think we are even near photorealism.

 

[DonJuanSchlong]

If you need a powerful PC or a console to enjoy a game 10 years from now we've done something wrong.

We're gonna be plugged in like the matrix. Except I'll be Morpheus, feeding placebo pills to everyone, regardless of blue or red pills.

 

[BluRayHiDef]

In all honesty, who wants photo-realistic games? I don't want to see photo-realistic combat, because that'll look like gore, which is disturbing.

On the other hand, photo-realistic interactive simulated se...hehe hehe.

 

[DonJuanSchlong]

Tim Sweeney said that maybe 40 teraflops is enough for photorealism, and while not fan favorite he has bit more credentials in tech space than T2 ceo. 3090 has 35 teraflops and personally I don't think we are even near photorealism.

Mark Cerny isn't on the same level as Jensen or Lisa Su. He's actually no where close. Wouldn't take his "word" at all. And I'm sure I'll wake up to a shit storm of quotes, but the reality is just that. He works based off the bread and butter off others like Nvidia and AMD.

 

[BluRayHiDef]

Mark Cerny isn't on the same level as Jensen or Lisa Su. He's actually no where close. Wouldn't take his "word" at all. And I'm sure I'll wake up to a shit storm of quotes, but the reality is just that. He works based off the bread and butter off others like Nvidia and AMD.

He doesn't wield the same influence over a business but is at least as knowledgeable as them in regard to computer technology. He's literally a genius.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Gameplay > Graphics

 

[Lethal01]

With real time raytracing now being a reality for even a 499$ machine I can finally hear something like this being said and actually believe it.

 

[LectureMaster]

RDR 3 has photorealistic graphic confirmed.

 

[Lethal01]

In all honesty, who wants photo-realistic games? I don't want to see photo-realistic combat, because that'll look like gore, which is disturbing.

On the other hand, photo-realistic interactive simulated se...hehe hehe.

I do, movies are photo realistic, doesn't mean they are forced to include disgustingly realistic gore.

 

[Lethal01]

Mark Cerny isn't on the same level as Jensen or Lisa Su. He's actually no where close. Wouldn't take his "word" at all. And I'm sure I'll wake up to a shit storm of quotes, but the reality is just that. He works based off the bread and butter off others like Nvidia and AMD.

He didn't say Mark Cerny, He said Tim Sweeny, take a deep breath and troll responsibly.

 

[BluRayHiDef]

I do, movies are photo realistic, doesn't mean they are forced to include disgustingly realistic gore.

Even non-violent games would be uninteresting if they were photo-realistic. Games are meant to enable escapism, not to emulate reality. However, to each their own.

 

[namekuseijin]

bet this guy has finally tasted VR and is now actively pursuing it

 

[Syphon Filter]

Does anyone even want photo realism? I think that takes away a bit from gaming.

 

[Deleted member 801069]

they're gonna use our brain as the GPU

 

[Bo_Hazem]

Seems like he runs a company that can't do it. Photorealism is happening much earlier than this lazy company that releases the same game in 3 generations.

 

[Lethal01]

Even non-violent games would be uninteresting if they were photo-realistic. Games are meant to enable escapism, not to emulate reality. However, to each their own.

Once again movies provide the same things even when they are 100x more realistic than games. you aren't forced to use real world locations,scenarios physics etc just because you can make better graphics. You can still have a final fantasy game where you mow down giant monsters with a 6foots sword without spilling a drop of blood. Forza isn't going to suddenly be less interesting because the grass actually has shadows or something.

 

[HAL-01]

I could see this happening only if PS6 and XSXS stick to 4K and don't go chasing the 8K goose. Consoles right now can barely do partial RT at 1080p/30. Even taking into account improvements in rt tech and efficiency, the next consoles will need to focus all of their power not on pushing pixels, but on ray calculations to provide playable CGI

 

[StreetsofBeige]

So if 2030 is the year and a console generation is 7 years long, that will be equivalent to around a PS6 Pro or Xbox Series 2X-X (whatever the fuck MS calls it).

I don't see it happening.

Also, even if the cpu/gpu can theoretically push photo realistic textures on every surface, the game will still look weird because the animations will be robotic and the physics will still have every character look like they are running on ice.

 

[begotten]

Doesn't matter, in 10 years we'll probably still be having insecures claiming Crysis on Ultra is the best looking thing.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

I could see this happening only if PS6 and XSXS stick to 4K and don't go chasing the 8K goose. Consoles right now can barely do partial RT at 1080p/30. Even taking into account improvements in rt tech and efficiency, the next consoles will need to focus all of their power not on pushing pixels, but on ray calculations to provide playable CGI

Oh ya, the power sapping resolution game.

10 years ago there were no 4k tvs. Now there's a handful of 8k tvs, but I don't see games hitting 8k unless it's Dig Dig X-Treme. But by the time, 2030 comes around, there will probably be 16k TVs and the norm for gaming perks up to 8k.

And at that time, RT will be ancient tech. Nvidia/AMD will have some other awesome graphics technique using power.

 

[Darkmakaimura]

So Take Two is saying that GTA 5 for the late-in-life PS6 in 2030 will look as different to GTA 5 for PS5 in 2020, that GTA 5 on PS5 looks different to GTA 5 on PS3?

Wait until Star Citizen goes gold in 2065 when it will look just like the real spaceships we'll have.

 

[TheMay30thMan]

Gross.

 

[rofif]

Sure. The graphics are so good for years now. I reply 2015 game and I am in awe of the graphics (like uncharted 4) with no sign of aging

 

[N1tr0sOx1d3]

I play games to avoid "realism".

 

[Represent.]

And AI will still be from the PS3 era. Standing around watching you and shit.

 

[BigBooper]

Ah, the same evergreen claim rolled out at each new hardware launch.

 

[GymWolf]

Maybe on a static pic, but animations, physics, interaction and ia are still 20 years behind.

 

[Lethal01]

I play games to avoid "realism".

The advancements that would let them make more realistic games are the same advancements that allow for easier methods for creating diverse and interesting art styles. It's a win win for everybody.

 

[Trimesh]

Hopefully at some point developers will pull their heads out of their collective arses and realize that photorealism is not a desirable aim in any event.

 

[existensmaximum]

The developers need to put a lot more effort into motion capture and animation then. Even the prettiest and shiniest graphics looks unrealistic to me if that stuff isn't top notch. Especially facial animation.

 

[Ingwerorang]

Photorealism could be nice but I would rather have some proper advancements in AI.

 

[Stuart360]

If we are talking games that look super realistic, with near movie cgi level graphics, then yeah maybe in 10 years. If we are talking games that literally look like real life, then its probably more like 50 years lol.

 

[HAL-01]

Oh ya, the power sapping resolution game.

10 years ago there were no 4k tvs. Now there's a handful of 8k tvs, but I don't see games hitting 8k unless it's Dig Dig X-Treme. But by the time, 2030 comes around, there will probably be 16k TVs and the norm for gaming perks up to 8k.

And at that time, RT will be ancient tech. Nvidia/AMD will have some other awesome graphics technique using power.

8k is already useless for anything under the size of a small theater, 16k is not happening. The next big thing for displays will be microLED.

And there won't be something "replacing" raytracing. RT is the holy grail, it is what offline CGI uses, because it literally simulates the way photons behave in the real world. 10 years from now consoles will have only Just enough juice to produce fully ray traced graphics in 4K.

 

[HAL-01]

If we are talking games that look super realistic, with near movie cgi level graphics, then yeah maybe in 10 years. If we are talking games that literally look like real life, then its probably more like 50 years lol.

Yeah, not even actual CGI in movies looks like real life. In 10 years we'll have games that that look around the level of CGI from 10 years ago (District 9, Avatar, etc)

 

[PuppetMaster]

They always say this.

The usual talking heads have been saying "10 years" since the 90s.

 

[cireza]

I thought we had reached it with PS2 ?

 

[GymWolf]

Yeah, not even actual CGI in movies looks like real life. In 10 years we'll have games that that look around the level of CGI from 10 years ago (District 9, Avatar, etc)

And people still talk about diminishing returns being a real thing now

 

[Hudo]

As soon as 2K has figured out how to con people into buying 4k textures piece by piece via microtransactions.

 

[ripeavocado]

Makes sense, in 10 years ray tracing would actually be powerful enough to provide us incredible visuals

 

[Nhranaghacon]

As an artist that has provided samples of my work here in the past, I in fact argue Photo Realism is attainable now - this generation, particularly if the dev's pursue a modest/photorealistic approach.

 

[Lupingosei]

Photorealism means exactly nothing. We could already do a lot of it, but there are a lot of technical limitations, which make higher detailed games look less real than less technical impressive games.

 

[Nhranaghacon]

Even non-violent games would be uninteresting if they were photo-realistic. Games are meant to enable escapism, not to emulate reality. However, to each their own.

Photorealism when done correctly would provide a whole new level of gameplay in and of itself, just in term's of amount of zoom detail, a photoreal leaf from far off looks much different than a photoreal leaf up close, is that a small bug on the leaf? Let's zoom in to see.

As an Artist with examples posted here on Gaf, the level of photorealism I'm describing above is attainable now imo, and will only serve to make the game more interesting, if you are worried photorealism will mire games and only prove to make them visually redundant/boring - just wait until high caliber game developer's get ahold of a toolset that focuses on photorealism as standard.

Unreal Engine 5 is promising Photorealistic Movie Caliber set pieces and graphics within this gen for instance and if dev's pursue photorealism at every step of development many games will improve dramatically based purely on this one standard. And let's not forget, there is typically an option to disable gore in all games released nowadays - let's not hold back an industry because thing's have gotten too real shall we.

 

[Dee Dah Dave]

And still in stunning 25fps on consoles