Support NeoGAF

[CazTGG]

No one outside of Nevada noticed, but last week, Sen. Dean Heller (R) announced that he would run for reelection rather than seek the open governorship in 2018. But it was a big deal — not just in Nevada, where Heller is now an early favorite to win, but on a national level where the map (and math) just keeps getting better for Senate Republicans.

Heller was the only one of the eight Republicans up for reelection in 2018 that is in a state that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential race. Of the other seven states where Republicans are expected to seek reelection, only two — Arizona (Donald Trump +4) and Texas (Trump +9) — were single-digit winning margins for the president-elect. The remaining five states — Mississippi (Drumpf +18.6), Nebraska (Trump +26), Tennessee (Trump +26), Utah (Trump +18) and Wyoming (Trump +57.6) — are among the most Republican in the country, meaning that even if there was a surprise retirement (Orrin Hatch in Utah, at age 84, for example), it would be almost impossible for Democrats to seriously compete.

By contrast, 10 Democratic senators are running for reelection in states Trump carried last November. Trump won half of those states — Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia — by double digits. That means that 20 percent of all Democratic seats up in 2018 are in states Trump won by double digits and 40 percent are in states that the president-elect carried last November.

It's not just that Democrats have so many vulnerabilities. It's that Republicans have so few.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...cant-get-much-better-for-republicans-in-2018/

 

[Lord Frieza]

Goddammit it all, it just feels so useless

 

[SwiftDeath]

2018 looks depressing

 

[Ashby]

Democrats fucked up so badly since 2012 I almost want to accuse them of self sabotage.

 

[Foffy]

Maybe this is how America ends. Instead of the HAL 9000 killing us via super AI, we all die from the LOL 9000 that the GOP becomes. A human mass of ignorance, ego, greed, division, and everything worse about the species all in one political platform.

Have we considered this?

 

[Rentahamster]

In 2015/16 I kept telling people not to get cocky.

In 2017 it's beginning to look more and more like my ad nauseum advice is going to be "quit being so defeatist".

 

[AstroNut325]

It sounds like people from Cali and NY need to move to red states and get those to turn blue.

 

[Lord Frieza]

I feel like my whole generation is just fucked. By the time we weed out these people out of power I'm going to be in my forties or fifties. What the fuck ever.

 

[Blader]

The math hasn't changed at all, so how has the map gotten any better than it was, you know, years ago? I didn't even know the idea of Heller not running for re-election was even a serious prospect. He and Flake have always been tagged as the most likely Republicans to lose re-election.

Dems should not pin their 2018 hopes and dreams on the Senate anyway. Retaking the House is a more likely bid (though a tall order in its own right), and the biggest prize imo would be retaking a bunch of governorships from outgoing Republican governors. That's going to be a huge leg up for Dems when it comes time for the 2021 redistricting.

 

[Lord Frieza]

In 2015/16 I kept telling people not to get cocky.

In 2017 it's beginning to look more and more like my ad nauseum advice is going to be "quit being so defeatist".

Show us the path to victory then

 

[Meowster]

Already donating to McCaskill. I don't want Missouri to turn into another Kansas, she needs to stay there, at all costs.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Show us the path to victory then

Win some seats, get the senate back.

Midterms always have depressed turnout for the president's party, and with how divisive Trump is, should be another 2006/2010 style shellacking.

 

[Razorback]

Maybe this is how America ends. Instead of the HAL 9000 killing us via super AI, we all die from the LOL 9000 that the GOP becomes. A human mass of ignorance, ego, greed, division, and everything worse about the species all in one political platform.

Have we considered this?

We were so close too. What a lame way to reach the great filter. I was looking forward to being killed by robots.

 

[Foffy]

I feel like my whole generation is just fucked. By the time we weed out these people out of power I'm going to be in my forties or fifties. What the fuck ever.

What's most hilarious yet alarming is what your generation (and presumably mine if you mean Millennial) is that the problems we face are actively being rejected by the GOP.

The two biggest issues we are likely to see is climate change and neoliberalism on an overdose via automation, raising the precariat class even further. What word, if any, has the GOP said about either?

 

[lenovox1]

Show us the path to victory then

For the Senate? There is nothing realistic.

The Senate isn't the only branch of government.

Don't be myopic.

 

[aeolist]

Show us the path to victory then

any real victory would require major self-reflection and change from the party leadership to run candidates in every possible race and start representing the interests of constituents over donors so it's extremely unlikely.

imo tom perez getting the dnc chairmanship would be the final nail in the coffin for the party and he's the favorite to win.

 

[nintendoman58]

Show us the path to victory then

The path to victory is through more activism and public outrage to ensure that there is no silence for the next two years.

 

[jimmypython]

Of course. At this point it wouldn't surprise me if GOP were to abolish the whole democrat system, aka to end the US as we know it, to hold on to power.

 

[Jeevesmeister]

any real victory would require major self-reflection and change from the party leadership to run candidates in every possible race and start representing the interests of constituents over donors so it's extremely unlikely.

imo tom perez getting the dnc chairmanship would be the final nail in the coffin for the party and he's the favorite to win.

Once again you can end the thread pretty much on this note, well done aeolist.

 

[ahoyhoy]

It sounds like people from Cali and NY need to move to red states and get those to turn blue.

You first.

 

[Jeels]

We need people to be 2006 levels of angry...and even then it is unlikely. :/

 

[AstroNut325]

any real victory would require major self-reflection and change from the party leadership to run candidates in every possible race and start representing the interests of constituents over donors so it's extremely unlikely.

imo tom perez getting the dnc chairmanship would be the final nail in the coffin for the party and he's the favorite to win.

The interests of the people in these states is to cut public programs and rights of minorities.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

imo tom perez getting the dnc chairmanship would be the final nail in the coffin for the party and he's the favorite to win.

Name a single reason Perez shouldn't be the head of the DNC.

We need people to be 2006 levels of angry...and even then it is unlikely. :/

2006 was 12 years before 2018. The map is basically the same as going into 2006. Senators hold 6 year terms.

 

[SpecX]

It sounds like people from Cali and NY need to move to red states and get those to turn blue.

This is kind of key, but Democrats move from red states because of how much of a shit hole they are. If people aren't willing to stick it out in these states, then they will be forever red. I'm not saying people should abandon opportunities to turn states blue, but we have to figure out something to keep Democrats spread throughout the country and not just concentrated in coastal big cities.

 

[Fine Ham Abounds]

Maybe this is how America ends. Instead of the HAL 9000 killing us via super AI, we all die from the LOL 9000 that the GOP becomes. A human mass of ignorance, ego, greed, division, and everything worse about the species all in one political platform.

Have we considered this?

From whence shall we expect the approach of danger? Shall some trans-Atlantic military giant step the earth and crush us at a blow? Never. All the armies of Europe and Asia...could not by force take a drink from the Ohio River or make a track on the Blue Ridge in the trial of a thousand years. No, if destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of free men we will live forever or die by suicide.

It is to deny what the history of the world tells us is true, to suppose that men of ambition and talents will not continue to spring up amongst us. And when they do, they will as naturally seek the gratification of their ruling passion as others have done before them. The question then is, Can that gratification be found in supporting and maintaining an edifice that has been erected by others? Most certainly it cannot. Many great and good men, sufficiently qualified for any task they should undertake, may ever be found whose ambition would aspire to nothing beyond a seat in Congress, a gubernatorial or a presidential chair; but such belong not to the family of the lion or the tribe of the eagle. What! think you these places would satisfy an Alexander, a Caesar, or a Napoleon? Never! Towering genius disdains a beaten path. It seeks regions hitherto unexplored. It sees no distinction in adding story to story upon the monuments of fame erected to the memory of others. It denies that it is glory enough to serve under any chief. It scorns to tread in the footsteps of any predecessor, however illustrious. It thirsts and burns for distinction; and if possible, it will have it, whether at the expense of emancipating slaves or enslaving freemen. Is it unreasonable, then, to expect that some man possessed of the loftiest genius, coupled with ambition sufficient to push it to its utmost stretch, will at some time spring up among us? And when such an one does, it will require the people to be united with each other, attached to the government and laws, and generally intelligent, to successfully frustrate his designs. Distinction will be his paramount object, and although he would as willingly, perhaps more so, acquire it by doing good as harm, yet, that opportunity being past, and nothing left to be done in the way of building up, he would set boldly to the task of pulling down.

― Abraham Lincoln, 1838

Interesting to think now of the party of Lincoln

 

[Blader]

Show us the path to victory then

Well for one, through recognizing that the future of the Democratic party, the progressive movement, and the anti-Trump resistance do not hinge on winning a Senate majority next year. There are more likely victories to be gained in the House and governorships around the country.

 

[CazTGG]

Win some seats, get the senate back.

Midterms always have depressed turnout for the president's party, and with how divisive Trump is, should be another 2006/2010 style shellacking.

There's far less seats to flip/defend for the GOP than there are for the Democrats. Assuming no D-seats are flipped and not factoring in the Independent seats, the Democrats need to flip at least 5 of the 8 GOP seats in order to hold a majority, 3 counting Independents. Given where those seats are, the odds aren't in their favor.

 

[Rentahamster]

Show us the path to victory then

It's complicated, and that's not necessarily my job, either. I'm not sure what the proper path would be, but then again, neither does anyone who claims they are 100% certain what it is.

What I do know, though, is that defeat is a certainty if you give up.

 

[Vanillalite]

Math hasn't changed.

Dems still have a get out the vote issue, but the election map hasn't suddenly changed over night.

 

[Zoator]

Yeah, we knew the Democrats were going to have to play defense in the Senate in 2018 since they had a very good 2012. They're unlikely to flip either chamber of Congress in 2018, but should at least narrow the margin in the House. 2020 is the year where they will have a very good shot at taking both chambers of Congress and the presidency, as long as they keep their voters engaged.

 

[Averon]

Winning back the Senate in 2018 was always a pipe dream.

What the Dems should really be focusing on is winning back governorships and state legislatures in preparation for 2020. That is when the census is due and redrawing of congressional maps happen.

 

[Lord Frieza]

The path to victory is through more activism and public outrage to ensure that there is no silence for the next two years.

How does that win us seats?

 

[aeolist]

There interests of the people in these states is to cut public programs and rights of minorities.

working class people (which at this point i believe is minority white) are not being represented by the democratic party.

framing this as a conflict between social issues and economic issues is the biggest problem liberals have. if they can't see that they're inextricably intertwined and interdependent and instead continue to portray the american electorate as so extremely racist that not even favorable economic policies can win them over then we are 100% fucked.

 

[sangreal]

Doesn't seem to have gotten any better for Republicans. It always counted on Heller, who can be beat. 2018 is a long shot for the Senate and always has been. I am way more worried about local elections anyway. Democrats will be shut out for another decade unless we can flip some state houses before 2020

 

[Kusagari]

Even in the miracle situation of the Dems holding every seat and winning AZ and NV, Pence still breaks the tie.

The Dems were never winning the Senate back in 2018. The best thing they can do is stave off their losses and try to make big gains in the house.

 

[aeolist]

Name a single reason Perez shouldn't be the head of the DNC.

The big problem for Democrats, Perez says, isn't their policy platform, but management and organization. Like everyone else running for the post, Perez wants to empower state and local parties in red and blue states alike. It's a pitch tailored for the party insiders who will ultimately decide the contest in two months.

“Our universal message of access to economic opportunity resonates with the ironworker in northeastern Ohio and the immigrant in South Florida,” Perez said. “And we sometimes have a relationship deficit with our voters, because we're not communicating that message.”

he thinks there's nothing wrong with the policies that obama and clinton pushed and that there's just a messaging problem.

the 2016 election was the biggest refutation of the democratic party's policies and history imaginable, but party leaders are ignoring the giant warning signs and continuing to drive us over a cliff.

 

[Pyrokai]

Well for one, through recognizing that the future of the Democratic party, the progressive movement, and the anti-Trump resistance do not hinge on winning a Senate majority next year. There are more likely victories to be gained in the House and governorships around the country.

House is gerrymandered. Not happening. Senate looks lost. Governorships are a stretch.

Staying negative, I guess.

I feel like my life was ruined this election

 

[Blader]

Name a single reason Perez shouldn't be the head of the DNC.

I too would like to know what about Tom Perez's abilities as an organizer make him not just poor choice to lead the DNC, but actually the "final nail in the coffin of the party". I mean, damn, he's got to be pretty be fucking awful at recruiting candidates and mobilizing voters if his election will single-handedly destroy the entire Democratic Party.

House is gerrymandered. Not happening. Senate looks lost. Governorships are a stretch.

Staying negative, I guess.

I feel like my life was ruined this election

Governorships aren't a stretch at all, and gerrymandering does not make a House win impossible, just harder.

 

[IamDodongo]

In 2018, all 435 House seats will be up for election.

Don't lose sight of that.

 

[dramatis]

It's complicated, and that's not necessarily my job, either. I'm not sure what the proper path would be, but then again, neither does anyone who claims they are 100% certain what it is.

Sure, but it's also not your job to keep saying what a genius you are for predicting everything and Jesus back two years. All you ever do in politics threads is toot your own horn.

 

[aeolist]

I too would like to know what about Tom Perez's abilities as an organizer make him not just poor choice to lead the DNC, but actually the "final nail in the coffin of the party". I mean, damn, he's got to be pretty be fucking awful at recruiting candidates and mobilizing voters if his election will single-handedly destroy the entire Democratic Party.

he's a continuation of the party of clinton and obama, which has objectively failed us in almost every possible way. the party needs a major change of direction, not better ads.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

he thinks there's nothing wrong with the policies that obama and clinton pushed and that there's just a messaging problem.

the 2016 election was the biggest refutation of the democratic party's policies and history imaginable, but party leaders are ignoring the giant warning signs and continuing to drive us over a cliff.

Sounds to me like he wants a 50 state strategy.

Also the Democats won the presidential popular vote and picked up seats in both the House and Senate, so I'm not really sure where you'd get the idea it was a massive refutation of Democrats.

House is gerrymandered. Not happening. Senate looks lost. Governorships are a stretch.

Staying negative, I guess.

I feel like my life was ruined this election

Gerrymandering isn't the end all, be all. Parties have taken the majority with far more harsh voting restrictions in place before.

Never give up hope. Giving up is the easiest way to lose.

 

[XenodudeX]

he thinks there's nothing wrong with the policies that obama and clinton pushed and that there's just a messaging problem.

the 2016 election was the biggest refutation of the democratic party's policies and history imaginable, but party leaders are ignoring the giant warning signs and continuing to drive us over a cliff.

No it wasn't.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

Yep. The Dems and liberals will stay home, and Trump will get his veto proof majority.

America gets the government it deserves.

 

[nintendoman58]

How does that win us seats?

By continuing to encourage people to get out and vote.

I know you'll refute this with "But voter suppression/Dems don't vote/public subjugation" but realize something here.

Democratic opposition to Trump is at an all time high now. Mass protests are frequent, marches are continuing to be planned, and the GOP can't create a cohesive narrative around Trump due to him changing the media focus every two seconds.

Trump has shown no signs of stopping his horrendous incompetent in office and he's only getting more and more people angry with what he's doing.

Angry people vote. The harder they try and stop them, the harder the angry people push back.

I'm not saying that this guarantees a victory, but the article in the OP sure doesn't guarantee one for them either, especially given the historical trends balladofthewindfishes explained.

 

[Pai Pai Master]

Democrats fucked up so badly since 2012 I almost want to accuse them of self sabotage.

You fucked up more by forgetting the year where they fucked up even more

2010 was an absolute disaster and we will be feeling the results of that election for decades

 

[Fuchsdh]

In 2015/16 I kept telling people not to get cocky.

In 2017 it's beginning to look more and more like my ad nauseum advice is going to be "quit being so defeatist".

PoliGAF collectively looks like a bunch of idiots at this point. They spent years screaming about how the Republicans were done.

Absent some crazy situation, the Senate is a lost cause. There could still be gains in the House, though.

he's a continuation of the party of clinton and obama, which has objectively failed us in almost every possible way. the party needs a major change of direction, not better ads.

This is nuts. I'm all for considering that the Dems need to work on their message, but Clinton won the popular vote by a healthy margin. You act like she got shellacked in a 65–35% defeat or something.

Sounds to me like he wants a 50 state strategy.

Also the Democats won the presidential popular vote and picked up seats in both the House and Senate, so I'm not really sure where you'd get the idea it was a massive refutation of Democrats.



Gerrymandering isn't the end all, be all. Parties have taken the majority with far more harsh voting restrictions in place before.

Never give up hope. Giving up is the easiest way to lose.

The other point about gerrymandering is that it can be a disastrous double-edged sword depending on the electoral circumstances. Gerrymandering is about improving the impact of your votes by spreading them around, but the flip-side of that is if there's an upset in the electorate it's much easier to flip those districts the other way since you've minimized the absolute number of votes needed to tip them. So if Dems can turn 2018 into "fuck Trump" enthusiasm it would be a lot easier to landslide wins compared to if districts were fairly proportioned.

 

[RinsFury]

This is so fucking depressing. What's the point if the bad guys are gonna win every time.

 

[Rentahamster]

Sure, but it's also not your job to keep saying what a genius you are for predicting everything and Jesus back two years. All you ever do in politics threads is toot your own horn.

That's everything that you remember me saying, but that's not all I talk about.

 

[Averon]

This view that winning or losing the Senate is an all or nothing matter is foolish. Do people not realize how important Dems holding state legislatures and governorships will be? The 2020 census is coming soon. The Dems having legislatures and governships will be critical for them to win back the House.