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[JCHandsom]

Again, the age old question: How do you get Democrats to vote in the midterms? I'm not feeling very optimistic right now, unfortunately.

Challenge/Combat gerrymandering laws that keep red districts red.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Challenge/Combat gerrymandering laws that keep red districts red.

Today's court challenges are not going to help 2018's vote. Democrats have to take back state legislatures and governors' mansions in 2020 so that they can be active participants in partisan-drawn maps. Good luck in even doing that, given the maps, but at least young and non-white voter participation rates will be more favorable that year.

I'm on record thinking 2018 is a dud for Democrats. They have to win too many races that weren't even competitive in 2016, and do so with a less favorable electorate.

Anyway. Fight on. (If you have a legislator who can actually be influenced to vote no. It's not going to work, but hey, no harm in trying.) (The best bet is still John McCain, if you live in Arizona.)

 

[Maxim726X]

I dunno, maybe take away their healthcare?

Won't take effect soon enough for the midterms, even if it's passed this month.

And districts are redrawn in 2020, so yeah tough to have faith when so many are easily mislead.

Today's court challenges are not going to help 2018's vote. Democrats have to take back state legislatures and governors' mansions in 2020 so that they can be active participants in partisan-drawn maps. Good luck in even doing that, given the maps, but at least young and non-white voter participation rates will be more favorable that year.

I'm on record thinking 2018 is a dud for Democrats. They have to win too many races that weren't even competitive in 2016, and do so with a less favorable electorate.

Anyway. Fight on. (If you have a legislator who can actually be influenced to vote no. It's not going to work, but hey, no harm in trying.) (The best bet is still John McCain, if you live in Arizona.)

Basically my point, but made better.

The Senate map fucking sucks, and it's an uphill battle for the House. Maybe the only hope we have is for people to suffer with the consequences of shit Republican agenda, and even then that's not a guarantee.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Won't take effect soon enough for the midterms, even if it's passed this month.

And districts are redrawn in 2020, so yeah tough to have faith when so many are easily mislead.

There will be serious effects felt by midterms.

 

[JCHandsom]

I'm on record thinking 2018 is a dud for Democrats. They have to win too many races that weren't even competitive in 2016, and do so with a less favorable electorate.

Anyway. Fight on. (If you have a legislator who can actually be influenced to vote no. It's not going to work, but hey, no harm in trying.) (The best bet is still John McCain, if you live in Arizona.)

Oh, I agree. The long game is the one we need to win, and those court challenges are where it's going to be fought.

2018...write, call, march, etc. but be prepared for the realistic outcome and go from there.

 

[Blader]

Won't take effect soon enough for the midterms, even if it's passed this month.

The ACA had a massive impact on the 2010 midterms despite not taking effect until 2.5 years later.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Alex Ruoff‏ @Alexruoff 7 minutes ago
McCain against Graham-Cassidy now. Reiterated his need for regular order: "it's about process,"

Alex Ruoff‏ @Alexruoff 7 minutes ago
He said "regular order" three times when asked about his support. Says he wants months of hearings and debate and options for amendments.

I'll enjoy being wrong if McCain holds firm on this.

 

[LegendofJoe]

I don't understand the pessism about the 2018 election. The Senate is pretty much out of the question but the Democrats should be able to make considerable gains at the state level. I expect to see the Democrats go +8 in gubernatorial elections, with associated gains in those state legislatures.

 

[JCHandsom]

I'll enjoy being wrong if McCain holds firm on this.

He doesn't really have anything to lose at this point

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I don't understand the pessism about the 2018 election. The Senate is pretty much out of the question but the Democrats should be able to make considerable gains at the state level. I expect to see the Democrats to go +8 in gubernatorial elections, with associated gains in those state legislatures.

Democrats have to win 24 seats in the House. The easiest path on the surface would be to win the 24 closest seats from the 2016 election. 9 of those were +10% in the R column. Only 7 were under 6%. The 24th closest was +12.8%. For every one of the 24 closest that you do not win, you have to go grab another district that's 13% or more in the R's favor. And you have to do it with an electorate that won't turn out, because young people suck.

 

[mackattk]

So this is what Trump meant when he was talking about "Draining the Swamp". Clear the nation of the poors and survival of the fittest (richest).

 

[LegendofJoe]

Democrats have to win 24 seats in the House. The easiest path on the surface would be to win the 24 closest seats from the 2016 election. 9 of those were +10% in the R column. Only 7 were under 6%. The 24th closest was +12.8%. For every one of the 24 closest that you do not win, you have to go grab another district that's 13% or more in the R's favor. And you have to do it with an electorate that won't turn out, because young people suck.

There were 23 districts won by Republicans where the majority voted for Clinton. Flipping 24 seats is still a gargantuan task, but it is not out of the realm of possibility at all.

 

[Maxim726X]

There were 23 districts won by Republicans where the majority voted for Clinton. Flipping 24 seats is still a gargantuan task, but it is not out of the realm of possibility at all.

You have to flip those while not losing any currently under control.

No one is saying it's impossible, just highly highly unlikely.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

And you have to do it with an electorate that won't turn out, because young people suck.

By 2018, voting needs to be drilled into their collective heads (ours for that matter).

Eat, Sleep, Breathe, Vote.

Democrats want to save healthcare, Republicans want to destroy it.

It's a very simple message that anyone can figure out.
If you value your life, you vote.

Or we can all just lose hope in everything, find a comfy bed, and wait for death.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

There were 23 districts won by Republicans where the majority voted for Clinton. Flipping 24 seats is still a gargantuan task, but it is not out of the realm of possibility at all.

12 of those 23 aren't in the 24 closest races, so you're asking for at minimum 13 point swings. 1 of them didn't even have a Democratic challenger (great job, DCCC). There was another district (didn't go to Hillary) rated as a R+4 that didn't have a D challenger (again, good effort).

You run into the age old problem. Everybody hates Congress, everybody loves their member of Congress. And the districts are drawn such that the biggest risk most members face is losing a primary, not a general election bid.

I mean, maybe young people will turn out in 2018 and change the game, but realistically? Take back the states for 2020 so you can help redraw the maps.

To go more, Gallup ran a poll after election day, R voters had a 14 percentage approval rating of democrats. By May, that number had risen... to 15. (Same polls saw D voter approval for democrats go from 83 to 77. I'm going to blame young people for that, too.)

 

[Lazy vs Crazy]

I don't understand the pessism about the 2018 election. The Senate is pretty much out of the question but the Democrats should be able to make considerable gains at the state level. I expect to see the Democrats go +8 in gubernatorial elections, with associated gains in those state legislatures.

We're still gerrymanderd past any reasonable level. You can't win when you need 60+ percent of the vote to get there.

 

[LegendofJoe]

You have to flip those while not losing any currently under control.

No one is saying it's impossible, just highly highly unlikely.

Making up half the difference would still be a considerable victory.

Really though 2018 is all about state level elections, that's where Democrats have the electoral map advantage and the most potential to flip seats.

And there is a decent chance that the Supreme Court could nuke partisan gerrymandering between now and 2020. If they care about this country at all they should know that it has to be done.

 

[Widdle Puppy]

I knew it would be back. People were saying we were good till 2018 ~_~

Fight this shit!!!

 

[Piano]

Call your senators, people. Call, call, call. Get others you know to call, too.

5calls.org

 

[EdibleKnife]

I knew it would be back. People were saying we were good till 2018 ~_~

Fight this shit!!!

Those people were too eager to rest. I don't blame them for not realizing the GOP could be so craven and sadistic

Call your senators, people. Call, call, call. Get others you know to call, too.

5calls.org

Bumping to reiterate that this is a great resource

 

[btags]

So when is it actually supposed to be difficult for republicans to pass this? I feel like every time there is a new push for repeal from republicans, there is always some new deadline that people say it would be really difficult to pass after that point, but this has been going on for half a year.

 

[Jorok Goldblade]

So when is it actually supposed to be difficult for republicans to pass this? I feel like every time there is a new push for repeal from republicans, there is always some new deadline that people say it would be really difficult to pass after that point, but this has been going on for half a year.

Supposedly September 30th, the end of the fiscal year, would push it to requiring 60 votes in the Senate.

 

[Blader]

So when is it actually supposed to be difficult for republicans to pass this? I feel like every time there is a new push for repeal from republicans, there is always some new deadline that people say it would be really difficult to pass after that point, but this has been going on for half a year.

This has an actual deadline of September 30th, after which they cannot use budget reconciliation to push through a 50-vote healthcare bill for the rest of the year. But then they could try again next year.

 

[BertramCooper]

Sent a fax to cowardly chode Rob Portman this morning, who will undoubtedly vote for this shit, but I must pester his staff nonetheless.

 

[MrSaturn99]

Just called and left a message for Toomey. I don't expect him to flip, but I can't stand around and do nothing.

 

[SpaceCadetKeon]

I faxed and e-mailed my reps. They'll probably still vote for it because one's a rubber stamp (Boozman) and the other's just a piece of shit (Cotton), but that's not going to stop me from pestering them. If this shit gets passed, I am fucked.

 

[IamDodongo]

I just faxed Tillis and Burr.

5calls.org is great. There's also http://resistbot.io and https://faxzero.com/fax_senate.php.

 

[BertramCooper]

No surprise - Portman appears to be a yes.

http://radio.wosu.org/post/portman-...tm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#stream/0

Piece of shit made fighting the opioid crisis the signature issue of his reelection campaign - and now keeps voting for legislation that will make the problem infinitely worse.

 

[MotherFan]

I think Rand is going to stay no on this. His statement is pretty strong. Prople point to the skinny repeal yes as proof he will support this but the Rs only got his vote by trying full repeal before the skinny. They have no such bribes this time around.

 

[Dehnus]

The GOP once again is trying to fast track the AHCA. Of course this is happening post 2 incredible natural disasters that have rightfully soaked up the attention of the general public let alone the many victims of the hurricanes who value their health care. And once again we need to put as much effort as possible into fighting back. Below is a Twitter thread from Ben Wikler of MoveOn.org regarding this matter and ways to fight back:



Alongside this, here is a previous post I made with resources and guides for fighting back thanks to Pod Save America and Ben Wikler once more that I'd made in my general thread regarding activism:





This battle against the AHCA needs, needs, needs to continue. We are not done and probably never will be as long as the GOP and its leadership remains craven about destroying the lives of American citizens.

More links:
Indivisible
Contacting Congress

Republidontcare is a better word for it.

 

[EdibleKnife]

Republidontcare is a better word for it.

I also enjoy Republicantcare

 

[Piano]

A new day, a new bump. Call, people. Call, call, call. It takes 5 minutes, max.

5calls.org

 

[mnannola]

This article from Vox interviewing 9 GOP senators on the health bill is amazing and disturbing all at once.

A few choice quotes:


Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS):

If we do nothing, it has a tremendous impact on the 2018 elections

Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK):

Efficiencies" from federal-state transfer ”can very well make up the difference

Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA):

Jeff Stein(VOX)
How does it do that? Any of those things?

John Kennedy
Well, you need to read the bill.

Jeff Stein
Well, you're voting for it, right? So what is the explanation for how it does those things?

John Kennedy
I am. Because it gives states added flexibility. Read the bill and you'll understand.

Just a bunch of shameful people that don't give two shits on how this bill will impact people.

 

[WedgeX]

The Center for American Progress put out state-by-state estimates of how many people will lose coverage in 2027 once the proposed block grant disappears:

https://www.americanprogress.org/is...-losses-state-graham-cassidy-bill-repeal-aca/

 

[Piano]

Call every day, using 5calls.org
Fax using resistbot.io
I don't care what state you're in or what your senators have said. Keep up the pressure, GAF!

 

[darthsontin]

Here's hoping the Parliamentarian guts the hell out of the bill. The state waivers should be removed since they had to be struck out of the BCRA last time.

 

[Blader]

Call every day, using 5calls.org
Fax using resistbot.io
I don't care what state your in or what your senators have said. Keep up the pressure, GAF!

eh, you should really only call your own senators. It's not like their offices can't tell where you're calling from, and if you have liberals in California spamming the phone lines in Louisiana, you only lend credence to the 'out-of-state astroturfing' claims Republicans trot out whenever they need to justify ignoring their own constituents.

 

[Piano]

eh, you should really only call your own senators. It's not like their offices can't tell where you're calling from, and if you have liberals in California spamming the phone lines in Louisiana, you only lend credence to the 'out-of-state astroturfing' claims Republicans trot out whenever they need to justify ignoring their own constituents.

I meant that you should call your own senators no matter where you live. Like, even if you're in California and they're already on the right side or you're in Oklahoma and they'll never change their minds - still call, still fax. You are their constituent. Don't let them forget it.

 

[EdibleKnife]

Senate Republicans continue to warp their own bill in desperation for a win.

 

[Jorok Goldblade]

It's dead.


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republicans-vote-week-graham-cassidy-health-plan/story?id=50108837