Spoiled Milk
Banned
What do you think they are? I mean, I don't know. But here's my best guess.
Shale and the American Energy Revolution
In 2012, America started exporting more oil than it imported, and now America has passed Russia as the largest exporter of natural gas. Launching onto the global market with cheap crude, America has essentially caused OPEC to declare economic war on us and try to force us out of the market. Some say that the dramatic drop in oil prices is one of the most important factors in the slowing global economy, while others insist that the dropping oil prices are actually a symptom of the slowdown, but regardless of the chicken-and-egg thought experiment, dramatically decreasing revenues will have massive ramifications on global politics and developing nations.
Russia is in an economic state almost as bad as the last time global trends reached a calamitous tenor in 1997 and caused it to default on its debt, which will have an unknown effect on its aggressive, nationalist political atmosphere and posturing.
Iran, which has been modernizing and ceding concessions to global political leaders on the promise that oil sales will finally bring prosperity to the hammered theocracy, now faces a barrel price that is half of what it had expected it would be, partially because of a belligerent Saudi Arabia fighting yet another battle to gain regional Sunni hegemony in the Middle East. Will shattered dreams dismantle Iranian modernization? How will nations dependent on oil profits respond to decreased revenues in the region? Thomas Picketty said the Middle East had the worst income inequality in the world and that is the primary reason for terrorism and instability. Will this destabilize the region further, after a failed Arab Spring has left temperamental dictatorships in ruins?
Africa
Nigeria is on track to have a trillion dollar economy by 2030, which will place it 17th in the world economy. And somehow, despite oil accounting for 2/3 of its government revenue, low costs of drilling and development mean that Nigeria can still remain profitable and will weather the storm far better than other nations. It is mostly probable that within 30 years, American politicians will be talking about whether we have a strong enough presence in Africa.
The (Real) Pivot to Asia
Despite an American obsession with the Middle East that's been around for three decades and topics like ISIS, Syria, and Iran dominating foreign policy debates in Western countries, the United States is finally pivoting to Asia (where most of the most important geopolitical developments will occur for the next few decades) by solidifying a trade deal more important than NAFTA with Pacific rim nations and committing strategically and militarily to its allies in the region. Re-establishing its Navy base in Subic Bay, Philippines, establishing relationships with emerging economies like Jakarta, and becoming even more engaged with a changing Tokyo is situating the United States to be firmly present for Asian politics. While strategically aligning itself against Beijing interests in the South China Sea may make it seem like the United States should be aggressive and unfriendly with China, the reality is that most Asian nations will want to have very good relationships with both Beijing and Washington, and China will be the "most complex relationship we will ever have".
Climate Change
The thing that makes climate change so unique is that it is simultaneously the most pressing threat to human existence and also predominantly manufactured by human activity. From mass extinction of species, to increased conflict in third world nations, we as a species have to make dramatic changes to all of human society or we threaten our entire survival. Catastrophic and apocalyptic predictions as soon as 200 years from now are hardly a stretch of the imagination and will surely be the most pressing issue of the far future, if we don't act in the near future. The Paris Climate Talks, also known as COP 21, is the first real commitment by the United States (the leader in carbon emissions) to reduce its carbon footprint and work with other nations to make dramatic cuts to emissions by key dates. But with the advent of cheap non-renewable energy becoming a normality for decades and the persistence of coal companies fighting solar power tooth-and-nail, renewable energy sources will constantly be in conflict with traditional energy until renewable energy is irrefutably cheaper than petroleum and natural gas.
Environmental Protection
The environment is actually a distinct issue from the climate. The explosive growth of the developing world will put one question on everyone's minds: wtf are we going to do with all that trash? If China is any indicator, industrialization in the 21st century is a very dirty, very unhealthy process, and will happen at speeds unprecedented in human history.
Species are undergoing mass extinction for reasons other than climate change. Sustainable agriculture is the exception, not the rule. Over half of all ocean ecosystems are either collapsing or in danger of ecological collapse. In fact, there are some estimates thatall large fish in the ocean could be wiped out by the year 2050 if sustainable fishing practices are not achieved soon. Yeah. That is the extent of our overconsumption of ocean resources.
Gene Engineering of Human Beings
The UK just gave scientists the right to experiment with gene editing of human embryos. GATTACA comparisons aside, we simultaneously have the potential to live in a society where literally no human being is born with genetic defects, but also huge mistakes have the potential to be made and unknown consequences will ensue in the manipulation of a largely chaotic system sensitive to small changes. These are the very same risks that currently apply to the genetic modification of produce and livestock, so scientists are well aware of it.
This has the huge potential of dramatically altering human society. The possibilities are both endless and unfathomable for me. I don't even know what will happen because of it, but it will be big. And the changes will come fast.
Okay, that's my list. What didn't make it on my list?
- Space. Elon Musk might have made one huge step in advancing human technology by accomplishing a reusable rocket landing (from orbit, suck it Jeff Bezos), but humans will not see the value of increasing funding for space exploration due to the intangibility of things like asteroid deflections, and settling Mars. Would love to be proved wrong.
- Global terrorism. Boko Haram and al Shebab will likely terrorize central Africa for maybe two or more decades, but the global terrorism will probably decrease or become widely irrelevant as the U.S. pivot to Asia leads to less resentment in the Middle East towards the West and terrorism becomes just another component to regional conflicts which will not end anytime soon.
- Privacy and the age of spying. In a world where it becomes impossible to not have a digital footprint, the amount of rights that the average person will lose related to digital privacy will nearly vanish but most people will be complacent because it will just be an automated and unnoticeable function of artificial intelligence networks operated by secret government agencies. Good or bad, that's just how it is, and has been.
Shale and the American Energy Revolution
In 2012, America started exporting more oil than it imported, and now America has passed Russia as the largest exporter of natural gas. Launching onto the global market with cheap crude, America has essentially caused OPEC to declare economic war on us and try to force us out of the market. Some say that the dramatic drop in oil prices is one of the most important factors in the slowing global economy, while others insist that the dropping oil prices are actually a symptom of the slowdown, but regardless of the chicken-and-egg thought experiment, dramatically decreasing revenues will have massive ramifications on global politics and developing nations.
Russia is in an economic state almost as bad as the last time global trends reached a calamitous tenor in 1997 and caused it to default on its debt, which will have an unknown effect on its aggressive, nationalist political atmosphere and posturing.
Iran, which has been modernizing and ceding concessions to global political leaders on the promise that oil sales will finally bring prosperity to the hammered theocracy, now faces a barrel price that is half of what it had expected it would be, partially because of a belligerent Saudi Arabia fighting yet another battle to gain regional Sunni hegemony in the Middle East. Will shattered dreams dismantle Iranian modernization? How will nations dependent on oil profits respond to decreased revenues in the region? Thomas Picketty said the Middle East had the worst income inequality in the world and that is the primary reason for terrorism and instability. Will this destabilize the region further, after a failed Arab Spring has left temperamental dictatorships in ruins?
Africa
Nigeria is on track to have a trillion dollar economy by 2030, which will place it 17th in the world economy. And somehow, despite oil accounting for 2/3 of its government revenue, low costs of drilling and development mean that Nigeria can still remain profitable and will weather the storm far better than other nations. It is mostly probable that within 30 years, American politicians will be talking about whether we have a strong enough presence in Africa.
The (Real) Pivot to Asia
Despite an American obsession with the Middle East that's been around for three decades and topics like ISIS, Syria, and Iran dominating foreign policy debates in Western countries, the United States is finally pivoting to Asia (where most of the most important geopolitical developments will occur for the next few decades) by solidifying a trade deal more important than NAFTA with Pacific rim nations and committing strategically and militarily to its allies in the region. Re-establishing its Navy base in Subic Bay, Philippines, establishing relationships with emerging economies like Jakarta, and becoming even more engaged with a changing Tokyo is situating the United States to be firmly present for Asian politics. While strategically aligning itself against Beijing interests in the South China Sea may make it seem like the United States should be aggressive and unfriendly with China, the reality is that most Asian nations will want to have very good relationships with both Beijing and Washington, and China will be the "most complex relationship we will ever have".
Climate Change
The thing that makes climate change so unique is that it is simultaneously the most pressing threat to human existence and also predominantly manufactured by human activity. From mass extinction of species, to increased conflict in third world nations, we as a species have to make dramatic changes to all of human society or we threaten our entire survival. Catastrophic and apocalyptic predictions as soon as 200 years from now are hardly a stretch of the imagination and will surely be the most pressing issue of the far future, if we don't act in the near future. The Paris Climate Talks, also known as COP 21, is the first real commitment by the United States (the leader in carbon emissions) to reduce its carbon footprint and work with other nations to make dramatic cuts to emissions by key dates. But with the advent of cheap non-renewable energy becoming a normality for decades and the persistence of coal companies fighting solar power tooth-and-nail, renewable energy sources will constantly be in conflict with traditional energy until renewable energy is irrefutably cheaper than petroleum and natural gas.
Environmental Protection
The environment is actually a distinct issue from the climate. The explosive growth of the developing world will put one question on everyone's minds: wtf are we going to do with all that trash? If China is any indicator, industrialization in the 21st century is a very dirty, very unhealthy process, and will happen at speeds unprecedented in human history.
Species are undergoing mass extinction for reasons other than climate change. Sustainable agriculture is the exception, not the rule. Over half of all ocean ecosystems are either collapsing or in danger of ecological collapse. In fact, there are some estimates thatall large fish in the ocean could be wiped out by the year 2050 if sustainable fishing practices are not achieved soon. Yeah. That is the extent of our overconsumption of ocean resources.
Gene Engineering of Human Beings
The UK just gave scientists the right to experiment with gene editing of human embryos. GATTACA comparisons aside, we simultaneously have the potential to live in a society where literally no human being is born with genetic defects, but also huge mistakes have the potential to be made and unknown consequences will ensue in the manipulation of a largely chaotic system sensitive to small changes. These are the very same risks that currently apply to the genetic modification of produce and livestock, so scientists are well aware of it.
This has the huge potential of dramatically altering human society. The possibilities are both endless and unfathomable for me. I don't even know what will happen because of it, but it will be big. And the changes will come fast.
Okay, that's my list. What didn't make it on my list?
- Space. Elon Musk might have made one huge step in advancing human technology by accomplishing a reusable rocket landing (from orbit, suck it Jeff Bezos), but humans will not see the value of increasing funding for space exploration due to the intangibility of things like asteroid deflections, and settling Mars. Would love to be proved wrong.
- Global terrorism. Boko Haram and al Shebab will likely terrorize central Africa for maybe two or more decades, but the global terrorism will probably decrease or become widely irrelevant as the U.S. pivot to Asia leads to less resentment in the Middle East towards the West and terrorism becomes just another component to regional conflicts which will not end anytime soon.
- Privacy and the age of spying. In a world where it becomes impossible to not have a digital footprint, the amount of rights that the average person will lose related to digital privacy will nearly vanish but most people will be complacent because it will just be an automated and unnoticeable function of artificial intelligence networks operated by secret government agencies. Good or bad, that's just how it is, and has been.
