The primary impacts across the Northeast arrive Wednesday into early Thursday.
It appears that our old low pressure across the Appalachians will "pass the baton" and the main storm energy will transfer to a new low in the Mid-Atlantic states. This is a classic, textbook winter storm pattern that we've seen many times in years past.
More likely than not, this low will start crawling northeastward near or inland from the coast, bringing gusty winds and widespread precipitation to the Northeast. The question is, what kind of precipitation?
When strong low pressure systems stay just offshore in the winter, you typically expect snow to get pretty close to the coast, if not all the way.
But this time, the forecast consensus suggests that the low will track far enough inland such that the "freezing line" - the zone where temperatures are at 32 degrees - will probably be to the northwest of the big cities in the Northeast corridor from D.C. to Boston.
Caution, though: this is still a couple days away, and even slight changes in that freezing line and the track of the low could make a big difference if you're living or traveling in the Megalopolis, and especially in the northwest suburbs of the major cities, where you'll be closest to that 32-degree line.
Given what we know, here's how Wednesday and Wednesday night are most likely to play out:
- Snow shifts from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes, northern Pennsylvania, Upstate New York, and northern New England. The heaviest snow totals, locally in excess of 1 foot, appear likely in western New York, Upstate New York and northern New England.
- Mainly rain for the major cities of the I-95 corridor and east to the coast, though a few locations could start with a brief period of light snow or a wintry mix before changing to rain.
- That said, the threat of damaging winds exists along the Northeast seaboard late Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Gusts over 50 mph may down tree limbs and wires, leading to power outages.
- Potentially some thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas; severe storm threat farther south (eastern Virginia southward).
- Freezing rain and sleet - with potentially significant ice accumulations - for parts of southern and eastern Ohio, much of central and northeast Pennsylvania, and into valley locations of eastern West Virginia and western Virginia. There are ice storm warnings for parts of Virginia and West Virginia.
By Thursday, lingering significant snow will persist in the eastern Great Lakes and northern New England.
Despite the "more wet than white" forecast for the I-95 urban corridor, expect major delays at the major Northeast airport hubs Wednesday due to low cloud ceilings and strong winds. These delays may persist into Thursday morning due to low clouds, wind, and potential changeover to light snow.
