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[goodcow]

 

[Smiles and Cries]

time to learn some new languages folks

 

[Willco]

Hey, if the Chinese are going to spend our investment money, they can learn our damn language!

 

[Stele]

I love mainstream press. They print out stuff like this as if no one knows. As for China's economy overheating -- it's not going to happen, as it's already being cooled. A 8-10 percent growth per annum is expected til at least the end of next year. Then a cooler 7-8% annual growth for the foreseeable future.

 

[Evolution VIII]

China going bust will not have that much of an effect on the world economy (although it will hurt Americans' pockets in the short run). The American economy going bust, however, will have long run effects.

 

[DopeyFish]

China going bust will not have that much of an effect on the world economy (although it will hurt Americans' pockets in the short run). The American economy going bust, however, will have long run effects.

if china goes bust, pricing in china will rise, forcing the american companies to pay more for imports or even outsourced manufacturing = america going oh shit.

 

[Stele]

China going bust will not have that much of an effect on the world economy (although it will hurt Americans' pockets in the short run). The American economy going bust, however, will have long run effects.

...

You have no idea what you are talking about. If China goes under; Asia goes under. And since Asia is 2/3 of the world, the rest of the world follows.

 

[Evolution VIII]

if china goes bust, pricing in china will rise, forcing the american companies to pay more for imports or even outsourced manufacturing = america going oh shit.

No. American companies happen to invest their resources much better than hedging all of their bets in China. So as I've said before, if China burns out, there will be a small bump in America's economy, but not the same magnitude that it would have if America suddenly could not afford to import goods anymore.

...

You have no idea what you are talking about.

Shocked
The biggest losers from a hard landing in China would be its Asian neighbours. China accounted, on average, for almost half of the total export growth of the other East Asian economies last year. By some estimates, Japan's exports to China and capital spending linked to its export industries accounted for one-third of Japan's total GDP growth last year. Indeed, a slowdown in China would expose the chronic weakness of private consumption in Asia. The recent burst in growth in the region has been much too dependent on exports to China. Although Japan's GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.5% in the second half of 2003, consumer spending rose by only 1%. In South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, consumer spending fell slightly, on average, last year.

A slump in China would have a much smaller impact on America and Europe, but some companies would be hurt. Exports to China accounted for about one-fifth of total export growth last year in America and the European Union. However, the biggest risk to these economies lies elsewhere—in the indirect effect of a sharp slowdown in China on financial markets. Another risk lies in the fact that America depends on China to help finance its budget and current-account deficits. China's purchases of American Treasury bonds, along with purchases by Japan, have helped to hold down yields and hence American mortgage rates. If China's economy continues to overheat, its current-account surplus could soon turn to deficit, and then its central bank would no longer need to buy American Treasuries to hold down its currency.

Fortunately, there are some reasons to hope that avoiding a hard landing in China, despite the difficulties, is possible. This time China's policymakers are stepping in to cool things down earlier than they did in the early 1990s, when inflation was far higher and investment and credit were growing even faster than today. And unlike the East Asian countries which suffered so badly during their economic crisis in the late 1990s, China has a current-account surplus and little foreign debt.

Perhaps the biggest worry for the world economy is the prospect of a “twin tightening” of monetary policy in both China and America. Interest rates of 1% in the United States are dangerously low for an economy with 5% real GDP growth. If America's Federal Reserve is forced to raise rates more rapidly than expected and this happens at about the same time that China's economy slows sharply, stockmarkets would take a beating and global growth could stall. Monetary-policy announcements from Beijing are still not as important as the Delphic words of Alan Greenspan, the Fed's chairman. But as the weight of China's economy in the world continues to grow over coming years, one day they will be.

In other words, China needs to slowdown, but a bust may leave us lingering with a headache for a short time.

If China goes under; Asia goes under. And since Asia is 2/3 of the world, the rest of the world follows.

Ever heard of the Asian economic crisis? The world market continued to go on as if it didn't even happen. That's not to say it didn't have a short-term effect on world market, but it was more of a problem in East Asia because of the immediate vicinity of trading in the area.

 

[Ripclawe]

...

You have no idea what you are talking about. If China goes under; Asia goes under. And since Asia is 2/3 of the world, the rest of the world follows.

eh? maybe in 20 years if China keeps at its current pace, but the Asian economy was on the doldrums in the 90s and the rest of the world did okay.

 

[way more]

What is "The Week?" Like scholastic or something for people over 15.

eh? maybe in 20 years if China keeps at its current pace, but the Asian economy was on the doldrums in the 90s and the rest of the world did okay.

By 20 years it will probably surpass the U.S., and ever hear of the Asian Financial Crisis?

 

[Stele]

eh? maybe in 20 years if China keeps at its current pace, but the Asian economy was on the doldrums in the 90s and the rest of the world did okay.

Such an apt thing that we're not in the 90s.

 

[Guileless]

Sports Illustrated had a very good article last week about the globalization of sports, and all of the major US leagues are trying to get a foothold in China. So far the NBA has by far the biggest lead because of Yao, and it said that basketball has overtaken soccer as the most popular sport in China.

With that many people, you would think they could really become a power in basketball eventually.

 

[Triumph]

Well, OPEC will start kissing China's ass instead of the US. But this has already started happening, really.

 

[Stuggernaut]

Try and buy some lumber and look at the prices now compared to the last few years....China has been a large factor in these increases (Iraq too btw). At one point China was buying up to 70% of all US exported building materials...scary.

Some products have seen as much as a 300% increase in price in the last 2 years

 

[Pimpwerx]

At $0.60/hr, what are standards of living like over there? Am I to assume that a lot is subsidized, or is it just a country of poor people? They're buying too many home electronics for poor folk. PEACE.

 

[Wolfy]

Repeating illegal immigration incursions into Russia by China will force Russia to declare war on China. Then goodbye world. So no, China is fucked regardless of their economic status.

 

[Piecake]

I hear that people in the cities are well off, but people living in the rural areas are really poor. I took a political Science class where the prof was an expect on China, and he pretty much stated the same thing as the article that China's banks are a huge problem.

 

[Evolution VIII]

At $0.60/hr, what are standards of living like over there? Am I to assume that a lot is subsidized, or is it just a country of poor people? They're buying too many home electronics for poor folk. PEACE.

Obviously goods and services are going to be priced lower than what we pay over here. And I do think that a lot of Chinese do make more than .60 an hour.