If we were to put aside the ISIS issue for a moment and reflect on the Sykes-Picot issue, we probably need a few countries reorganized. Lets look at what an ideal break-up of the region would be.
We need:
- Western Syria: a territory mostly for the Aluwites, Christians, and other groups of Syria. Perhaps it might make sense to merge into Lebanon, but it has the most pieces of functional government
- Sunni country: basically where ISIS currently is across portions of Syria and Iraq, plus some portions of the other rebels (i.e. Nusra). Setting up a government here will be difficult, so perhaps it would make more sense to have Saudi Arabia operate the territory (maybe this could be a chip in the Iran-Saudi Arabia talks).
- Turkmen territory (northern Syria): Turkey believes this territory has many people who still identify as Turks. Perhaps allowing some of this territory merge into Turkey could be used as a chip to get Turkey to accept Kurds in the east separating from Turkey.
- Shia Iraq: Baghdad and other portions of south-eastern Iraq. This area has an operational government, and perhaps could stay independent. This country would likely closely align with Iran.
- Kurdistan: Northern Iraq, north-eastern Syria, eastern Turkey. There are some pieces in Iran too but they don't seem to seek a separate country as actively. To help achieve calm in this region, they may need their own country. They would probably be the US's best ally in the region if created.
Negotiations could assume a split is required. We could require Assad step down but allow him to be replaced by someone within his own power structure if he agrees to cede power of eastern Syria to the other players.
Eastern Syria would require a collective effort of the international community and the Arab countries could have governance responsibility, particularly Saudi Arabia. If Iraq complains, we dare them to challenge us.
Turkmen territory could be sliced strategically out of current Syria to make Turkey happy with losing Kurd territory.
Kurdistan will also need Iraq to look the other way as we slice it off. Perhaps some agreement for additional international investment in Iraq and Iran could help both countries accept this shake-up.
Western Syria could exist as separate or decide on their own to join with Lebanon, depending on what Iran prefers.
So now how do we get everyone at the table to be okay with all this?