U.S. ambassador: Chinese government is unstable...

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Archer

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http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/p...litical_situation_in_china_very_very_delicate

The Chinese people are increasingly frustrated with the Chinese Communist Party and the political situation in China is "very, very delicate," U.S. Ambassador to China Gary Locke said on Wednesday.

"I do believe that there is a power of the people, and there is a growing frustration among the people over the operations of government, corruption, lack of transparency, and issues that affect the Chinese people on a daily basis that they feel are being neglected," Locke told NPR's Steve Inskeep during a Wednesday interview, part of a media blitz Locke is conducting during his visit to Washington.

"Do you think that the situation is fundamentally stable in China right now?" Inskeep asked Locke.

"I think, very delicate -- very, very delicate," Locke responded. "But there were calls earlier this year for a Jasmine Revolution and nothing came of it. I think it would take something very significant, internal to China, to cause any type of major upheaval."

Locke said that since he took over the ambassadorship from former GOP presidential candidate Jon Huntsman, he has become aware of public demonstrations large and small throughout China that ordinary people were using to pressure the government to address their grievances. He singled out a recent protest in the southern Chinese city of Wukan over the confiscation of land without reasonable compensation.

"[The people] basically prevented anybody from the outside from coming in and brought the city to a halt and forced the Chinese government communist leaders to send people to address their grievances," Locke said.

The discord inside China is partly a result of the income and wealth disparity between China's growing middle class and the masses of poor, rural residents, Locke said. He also said the Chinese government's human rights record was worsening.

"t's very clear that in the run up to the 2008 Beijing Olympics and since then, there's been a greater intolerance of dissent -- and the human rights record of China has been going in the wrong direction," said Locke.

Asked for comment at today's State Department press briefing, spokeswoman Victoria Nuland backed up Locke's comments on human rights and the rule of law in China.

"[Locke] obviously speaks for the administration in expressing continued concern that we seem to have an increasing trend of crackdowns, forced disappearances, extralegal detentions, arrests and convictions of human rights activists, lawyers, religious leaders, ethnic minorities in China," she said.

But Nuland declined to repeat Locke's assertion that the Chinese government was potentially unstable.

"I think our message to the Chinese government on these issues is the same message that we give around the world when we have human rights concerns, that governments are stronger when they protect the human rights of their people and when they allow for peaceful dissent," she said.
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China went through one of the biggest revolutions the world has ever seen. It could all happen again, though I doubt it will be a repeat of what occurred previously.
 
Does it specify if the protests and unrest were against local communist governments or the main party?

That's a pretty big distinction.

Either way, I'd take this with a big grain of salt.
 
SpectreFire said:
Does it specify if the protests and unrest were against local communist governments or the main party?

That's a pretty big distinction.

Either way, I'd take this with a big grain of salt.
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I dunno man, the US Ambassador making public statements like this is a big fucking deal.
 
Salazar said:
Not without exceptionally vicious last-ditch attempts to fend it off. And even then, god only knows in what form or when it would arise.

I think the fellow who reacts incandescently to any discussion of China on GAF might be banned.
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Xenon?
 
zmoney said:
I dunno man, the US Ambassador making public statements like this is a big fucking deal.
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Yeah, the Chinese govt elders must have flipped their shit when they heard this.

Whatever happens needs to be kept from spinning out of control for a lot of reasons. My ex-girlfriend's father experienced the cultural revolution as a young man he has some pretty bad stories. His mom was brutally tortured and murdered. He escaped and made it to the USA.
 
China is going to be fascinating over the next few decades. I'm struggling to think of a similar set of circumstances faced by any other nations that made the...crap, I've got no adjective for it, its further then the industrial revolution but I don't know what to call it...
 
SpectreFire said:
The fact that the State Department is refusing to back him up on that instability statement is pretty evident that it's probably not the case.
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The fact that he made that statement at all is a big deal, regardless of whether or not this is true, this could cause big problems for relations between the United States and China.
 
The_Technomancer said:
China is going to be fascinating over the next few decades. I'm struggling to think of a similar set of circumstances faced by any other nations that made the...crap, I've got no adjective for it, its further then the industrial revolution but I don't know what to call it...
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China's a pretty good example of what happens when you put a bunch of engineers in charge of a nation. Sure, infrastructure and technologically wise, you're pretty well off, but socially, you've got a huge mess brewing.

zmoney said:
The fact that he made that statement at all is a big deal, regardless of whether or not this is true, this could cause big problems for relations between the United States and China.
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It means he's going to get a big stern talking to from the state department on how to handle international relationships and keep your fucking mouth shut.
 
SpectreFire said:
The fact that the State Department is refusing to back him up on that instability statement is pretty evident that it's probably not the case.
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Or that USG won't fully come out and say it because they need China's investments for the near term. The ambassador would be recalled if they truly took issue with his claims.
 
the thread title is a bit misleading imo. locke didn't exactly say that the chinese government is unstable. he was asked if the "situation" in china is stable, and he responded that it is "very delicate." this is a bit different and less sensationalist to me, because the government being "unstable" suggests some immediate turmoil. i interpret locke's comments to mean that something may be brewing among the populace but it's too early to tell.
 
SpectreFire said:
China's a pretty good example of what happens when you put a bunch of engineers in charge of a nation. Sure, infrastructure and technologically wise, you're pretty well off, but socially, you've got a huge mess brewing.
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That just means you haven't put the right engineers in charge :P
 
Archer said:
Or that USG won't fully come out and say it because they need China's investments for the near term. The ambassador would be recalled if they truly took issue with his claims.
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Recalling the US government to China is a pretty big deal. It's tantamount to saying that we made a huge mistake in picking the guy to handle one of the single most important jobs in the state department. It's better to try to keep it under wraps and make sure someone vets everything he says from now on.
 
Evlar said:
Nationalism?
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Something like that, though I doubt it would be as domineering as what nationalism can get. To the Chinese, they consider themselves just and kind and benevolent and the best. Of course this is a generalisation but it's why the culture is different and will always be different, and perhaps this is what scares some people.
 
SpectreFire said:
The fact that the State Department is refusing to back him up on that instability statement is pretty evident that it's probably not the case.
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I'm not saying that the Chinese government is currently unstable (although I have doubts about its long term viability without serious reforms), but the State Department would never back up a statement like that. The Chinese will see this fairly innocent frank assessment as an attack by the US government to destabilize China, and the State Department is probably already in damage control mode, assuring the Chinese government that Locke does not speak for the administration.
 
speedpop said:
Something like that, though I doubt it would be as domineering as what nationalism can get. To the Chinese, they consider themselves just and kind and benevolent and the best. Of course this is a generalisation but it's why the culture is different and will always be different, and perhaps this is what scares some people.
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I don't think you've ever met a single Chinese person. Chinese people think other Chinese people are assholes. Gossiping is literally the national pasttime.
 
Evlar said:
Nationalism?
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Think a semi-oligarchic parliamentary system. It'll still be quite authoritarian, secretive, restrict a lot of individual liberties and will still effectively be an old boys' club, but you'll get to vote for your political party (mostly formed out of former Communist Party factions).

Basically, it'll be half-arsed and derivative and completely fail to live up to the ambitions of its creators, just like the Guns n Roses album.
 
SpectreFire said:
I don't think you've ever met a single Chinese person. Chinese people think other Chinese people are assholes. Gossiping is literally the national pasttime.
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Don't get me wrong. My partner speaks quite loudly at her hatred for "people from China" no matter the occasion, but that won't stop her from saying that she is proud to have cultural ties with them.
 
i think the immediate issues in china have to do with corruption, wealth inequality and nepotism in gov't. for the young people its all about competition, competition to get into a good school, competition to get a good job. i don't think there is as big a push for 'democracy' as many people think there is or think there ought to be. either way, the chinese people seem as apathetic to voting for their government as any other people, its the corruption at the local level and the gov't officials who think they're above the law that really get's most chinese people's goat. if the central gov't wants stability, near term, they ought to look at the local governments and put in a system where corruption and cronyism is punished. but, boy, cronyism is a big part of chinese social/business/gov't culture, so that's a tough one. that is what locke is talking about when he says its very fragile, there are a lot of pissed off people who don't think they're getting a fair shake at things and then they look at the local gov't and see all the shit they get away with. what the op doesn't mention is that they did a poll in china asking if people there think china is going in the right direction, something like 60% said 'yes, china is going in the right direction' in the us that percentage is 20%. so don't bet on the overthrow of the central gov't, too many people in china are generally optimistic about the future for that. that's my $.02.


edit: i also want to take issue that locke even said very delicate. i listened to that interview last morning and when inskeep asked about stability, locke under his breathe almost began to say 'very stable', but he cut himself off mid-syllable, paused for a couple seconds and said the 'delicate, very delicate line.' it's like he did a 180 in his mind when he realized that he was going to say 'very stable' but for whatever politics demanded of him, he had to say something negative. for once i'd like to hear a us gov't official go against the groupthink and say something nice about china.
 
all non-democratic governments are fundamentally unstable, particularly in a world where democratic governments exist. china is better run than most authoritarian states, but its leaders can only hold back the tide for so long.
 
Chinese exceptionalism. They're not as good as they could be, but they're fuckloads better than everyone else. Sounds familiar... Except they've got thousands of years of experience, minus a few 'recent' hiccups, to go on.
 
dschalter said:
all non-democratic governments are fundamentally unstable, particularly in a world where democratic governments exist. china is better run than most authoritarian states, but its leaders can only hold back the tide for so long.
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That's a rose-tinted view of the world. Sub-saharan Africa might have something to say about the inevitability of democratic reform.
 
SiteSeer said:
i think the immediate issues in china have to do with corruption, wealth inequality and nepotism in gov't. for the young people its all about competition, competition to get into a good school, competition to get a good job. i don't think there is as big a push for 'democracy' as many people think there is or think there ought to be. either way, the chinese people seem as apathetic to voting for their government as any other people, its the corruption at the local level and the gov't officials who think they're above the law that really get's most chinese people's goat. if the central gov't wants stability, near term, they ought to look at the local governments and put in a system where corruption and cronyism is punished. but, boy, cronyism is a big part of chinese social/business/gov't culture, so that's a tough one. that is what locke is talking about when he says its very fragile, there are a lot of pissed off people who don't think they're getting a fair shake at things and then they look at the local gov't and see all the shit they get away with. what the op doesn't mention is that they did a poll in china asking if people there think china is going in the right direction, something like 60% said 'yes, china is going in the right direction' in the us that percentage is 20%. so don't bet on the overthrow of the central gov't, too many people in china are generally optimistic about the future for that. that's my $.02.
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You're close to the mark there. The biggest problem in China is corrupt, lots of rampant corruption between the government and corporations. I think a lot of the corruption stems from the local government, which are constantly being protested and bitched about by the populace since god knows when, and I believe the central government is actively trying to crack down on it, because it hurts them in the long run.

The issue though, is that you can't fix that problem, not anytime soon. It's is pretty much the same problem India is facing, the only difference is, the Chinese central government has far more leeway in directly cracking down on it. You can't just fix corruption in a population of billions, amongst a country of people who've been through a long history of this sort of stuff. Corruption's run through Chinese history for almost forever. Democracy won't fix it, nothing except a slow decrease in population will fix it.
 
Evlar said:
That's a rose-tinted view of the world. Sub-saharan Africa might have something to say about the inevitability of democratic reform.
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i think you need to read what i said more carefully.

i did not say that non-democratic governments are inherently likely to be replaced by democracies, i said that they are inherently unstable. it's quite common for dictatorial regimes to fall and for new autocrats to take the place of the old ones.
 
Society will change when the people want change.

Don't force it, just let it happen naturally, since it will, eventually.

EDIT: Anyway, Gary Locke for US Pres 2016, we got Black Pres, we should get an Asian one too.
 
Government corruption, harsh crackdowns on dissidents, massive disparity of wealth... sounds familiar. Hopefully the government will wise up and turn things around before it's too late.
 
It would be a shame if this will damage his reputation in China. My understanding is that he's a somewhat popular, likable figure. That's a really effective tool. I hope he won't lose that.
 
SpectreFire said:
Does it specify if the protests and unrest were against local communist governments or the main party?

That's a pretty big distinction.

Either way, I'd take this with a big grain of salt.
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It was against the local government--pictures from the protest:
814507bbgw1dnxw65gv00j.jpeg

73cc4bd5tw1do1zgmq7x6j.jpeg

http://chinageeks.org/2011/12/the-siege-of-wukan/

Translation of 4 signs (correct me if I'm wrong):
Does the land belong to corrupt officials?
Central (Communist) Party, Please Save Wukan (name of village), Please Save Our Country
The People of Wukan Have Been Treated Unjustly
Central Government, Please Save Wukan

They sacked the village's communist party secretary and replaced it with the leader of the protest:

In an unlikely coda to the citizen takeover last month of Wukan, a village in southern China whose furious residents evicted the authorities over a land dispute, the local Communist Party has selected the protest leader to be the village’s new party secretary.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/17/w...ty-boss-in-chinese-village-that-rebelled.html

A nearby village that has threatened a similar protest has won a graft probe:
http://topics.scmp.com/news/china-news-watch/article/Second-village-wins-swift-graft-probe
Guangzhou city officials have agreed to investigate the property and financial records in Wanggang village and put a village party committee election on hold.

The moves to appease protesting villagers came after about 1,000 Wanggang residents, angered by land seizures and alleged official corruption, rallied in front of Guangzhou city's government headquarters on Tuesday.

They vowed to turn their urban village, under the Jiahe subdistrict in the city's Baiyun district, into "Guangdong's second Wukan" - referring to the three months of protests late last year by villagers from Wukan in the province's east with similar complaints.
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dschalter said:
i think you need to read what i said more carefully.

i did not say that non-democratic governments are inherently likely to be replaced by democracies, i said that they are inherently unstable. it's quite common for dictatorial regimes to fall and for new autocrats to take the place of the old ones.
Click to expand...

Sorry, that phrase "hold back the tide" just had that air of determinism about it.
 
akira28 said:
Chinese exceptionalism. They're not as good as they could be, but they're fuckloads better than everyone else. Sounds familiar... Except they've got thousands of years of experience, minus a few 'recent' hiccups, to go on.
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Except chinese exceptionalism isn't about exporting chinese exceptionalism they let others come to them.
 
akira28 said:
Chinese exceptionalism. They're not as good as they could be, but they're fuckloads better than everyone else. Sounds familiar... Except they've got thousands of years of experience, minus a few 'recent' hiccups, to go on.
Click to expand...

This is what I was getting at and you explained it better than I could.
 
numble said:
It was against the local government--pictures from the protest:

Translation of 4 signs (correct me if I'm wrong):
Does the land belong to corrupt officials?
Central (Communist) Party, Please Save Wukan (name of village), Please Save Our Country
The People of Wukan Have Been Treated Unjustly
Central Government, Please Save Wukan

They sacked the village's communist party secretary and replaced it with the leader of the protest:


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/17/w...ty-boss-in-chinese-village-that-rebelled.html

A nearby village that has threatened a similar protest has won a graft probe:
http://topics.scmp.com/news/china-news-watch/article/Second-village-wins-swift-graft-probe
Click to expand...
Figures, this kind of stuff happens all the time. It's nothing new at all.
 
I give China 10 years for another radical movement in the country to occur. Might correlate with slower growth rates and rising inflation.
 
viciouskillersquirrel said:
Chinese democracy. It's coming, but not for a couple of decades.

And when it does get here, I think a lot of people will be disappointed with the form it takes.
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Just like Middle-East democracy.

The West seems to think that democracy means a cultural change into being exactly like the West, and suddenly catering to Western interests.

Wrong.

Democracy means these countries will look out for themselves even more (since it's harder for the West to influence leaders that are not authoritarian) and their culture will still remain different and scary to the West.
 
LOL he even sited the Wukan protest. You know what kind of banners they put up during the protest? "Long live the CCP" "Central party please help us!"

And our spokesman said it straight:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...1242249996.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_MIDDLETopNews

"Some people always take viewpoints of the minority in China as the mainstream public opinion, and I think this is entirely wrong," Mr. Liu said. "Should we take the views of those in the Occupy Wall Street movement as society's mainstream public point of view?"

A U.S. Embassy spokesman declined to comment.
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viciouskillersquirrel said:
Chinese democracy. It's coming, but not for a couple of decades.

And when it does get here, I think a lot of people will be disappointed with the form it takes.
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Chinese revolution means one group of elites overthrow another group of elites and keep running the empire. The fact is deep in heart the majority of people in China are still satisfied with a strong handed central government and that fact hasn't changed for over 5000 years.

Salazar said:
Not without exceptionally vicious last-ditch attempts to fend it off. And even then, god only knows in what form or when it would arise.

I think the fellow who reacts incandescently to any discussion of China on GAF might be banned.



That's the lad.
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LOL what are you afraid of? I don't think freedom works in China but I respect freedom and I believe speech freedom works in a western society like Gaf, unlike you who simply can't wait to get me banned because I'm holding different opinions.
 
_Xenon_ said:
LOL he even sited the Wukan protest. You know what kind of banners they put up during the protest? "Long live the CCP" "Central party please help us!"

And our spokesman said it straight:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...1242249996.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_MIDDLETopNews
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lol pretty much, I don't think many westerners truly understand China.They are the opposite of America where we tend to trust our local and state representatives and hate the big bad federal government who wants to take our personal rights away..!! Or at least the Republicans think so. In China many seem to see their local reps and corrupt mofos and the State as the savior that lifted them from poverty and greatly improved their quality of life in just a few generations. The young people in general, those who you'd think would be leaders of the revolutionaries to topple the CCP.. are instead usually very nationalistic. Think Young Republicans, but asian~
 
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