https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/health/united-states-fertility-rate.html
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U.S. Fertility Rate Reaches a Record Low (NYtimes)
- Thread starter SteveO409
- Start date
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/health/united-states-fertility-rate.html
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KibblesBits
Member
I for one do NOT want to live in the Gilead timeline. Please. Please. Please.
KillerMan91
Member
Every single developed nation has birthrate below replacement level. I really don't know if there is permanent fix for that.
Just keep the rest of the world in a permanent state of war and famine forever, ez!
Also for all this talk of "dwindling populations" we're still way too many for what we consume in term of CO2 imprints and rents are still too goddamn high. 20% less people over 100 years ain't gonna change that.
giancarlo123x
Banned
I'm watching this with my girlfriend right now and it'd exactly what jumped to mind.
Herr Schwarz
Banned
Like I say about Japan. Create a society that is conducive to growth and more babies.
As opposed to work to death culture for seemingly very little.
So why add a baby to the burden? So they can work to death too. Great? Or maybe they can enjoy that sweet underwater life in Miami?
As opposed to work to death culture for seemingly very little.
So why add a baby to the burden? So they can work to death too. Great? Or maybe they can enjoy that sweet underwater life in Miami?
Isn't this normal considering were at the stage where millennials are at the point where they'd normally have kids? That's a massive group of people, shouldn't this drop be expected?
We've been doing it for years.
We've been doing it for years.
BlackLagoon
Member
Some countries do better than others. Making sure things like maternity/paternity leave and affordable daycare are in place so that it's feasible for women to have kids without giving up on their education/careers helps.
Part of the reason my wife and I aren't planning on having kids in the near future, or ever, is because of the shitty work-life balance the US offers.
Minimal maternity leave plus she works 55+ hours a week doesn't make the best environment to raising a kid. It's not the only reason, but it is a big one.
Minimal maternity leave plus she works 55+ hours a week doesn't make the best environment to raising a kid. It's not the only reason, but it is a big one.
A solid alternative is to allow immigration to offset the low birth rates.
Of course, I agree with your sentiment of having a better quality of life instead of working to death.
Ether_Snake
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The replacement level is overblown, the world population needs to downsize to adapt to a new reality where the value of human labor is steadily falling but the costs of life are rising. It's the only way to eventually have sustainable guaranteed income, wealth equality, and no erosion of democracy which would otherwise have to be eliminated to enforce sustainable income guarantees or an equivalent.
Japan is experiencing a necessary adjustment, the country is highly overpopulated. Doesn't mean they should not favor immigration for other reasons, but certainly not to increase the population count.
Japan is experiencing a necessary adjustment, the country is highly overpopulated. Doesn't mean they should not favor immigration for other reasons, but certainly not to increase the population count.
theechrisfox
Member
Good thing public schools are going to abstinence pacts instead of sex education!
milanbaros
Member?
This article is a bit strange. It refers to fertility rate but then supports the statement with birth rates but then has births per 1000 women of fertility age which is used to calculate the fertility rate. It then talks about replacement rate, which is specifically fertility rate and not birth rate.
All over the place.
This isn't really surprising, considering many things like...
- Work/life balance in many career sectors
- Millennials not making enough income to support a child (or to buy other life 'milestones' they may think they need before having a kid, such as a house)
- The detrimental effect childbearing can have on a woman's career (to elaborate, if you're out of the workforce for any extended time it's harder to get back in)
- Lack of government support in terms of both the pregnancy and after the child is born... just daycare alone is an absurdly high expense
The only thing making us better off than say Japan is that we do allow immigration... well, at least for now. Besides, we probably need a smaller world population anyway.
- Work/life balance in many career sectors
- Millennials not making enough income to support a child (or to buy other life 'milestones' they may think they need before having a kid, such as a house)
- The detrimental effect childbearing can have on a woman's career (to elaborate, if you're out of the workforce for any extended time it's harder to get back in)
- Lack of government support in terms of both the pregnancy and after the child is born... just daycare alone is an absurdly high expense
The only thing making us better off than say Japan is that we do allow immigration... well, at least for now. Besides, we probably need a smaller world population anyway.
ShadowKingpin
Member
This 110%. I personally won't bring a child into this world if I can never have time to raise them while being a slave for 50-60 hours a week at work. Not only that, my life has been rough as is. Theirs will only be substantially worse with the way things are in America.
I make no judgments on this, but I find it remarkable that these numbers are so far apart. And 70% is much higher than I would have guessed. Underscores how two kids born in the same year can have such very different childhood experiences with the composition of the family varying so widely.
The white numbers are going up.
Makes sense to me. Im 31 and my wife is 29, we bought a house last year and both have careers and while we think we want kids, its not 100% set in stone. Its selfish but we have a dog which we fawn over and watching some of our friends have kids, it completely upends your life.
Honestly if it werent for increased chance of birth defects as my wife ages, wed both be perfectly fine waiting another 10+ years before even trying, but the biological clock aspect of it is making us realize we need to either make this happen in the next 5 years or not at all (unless we were to adopt)
I see the pros and cons of both, and ultimately I think in your old age you probably would rather have had kids than not, but our life is pretty great without kids and the biggest factor at least for me to have them is because youre supposed to. I already feel the pressure from my parents since Im the only hope right now of grandkids and my cousins are reproducing like jackrabbits (super religious).
Well see how it plays out over the next couple years but I completely understand the no kids camp the longer I remain kid less as an adult.
Honestly if it werent for increased chance of birth defects as my wife ages, wed both be perfectly fine waiting another 10+ years before even trying, but the biological clock aspect of it is making us realize we need to either make this happen in the next 5 years or not at all (unless we were to adopt)
I see the pros and cons of both, and ultimately I think in your old age you probably would rather have had kids than not, but our life is pretty great without kids and the biggest factor at least for me to have them is because youre supposed to. I already feel the pressure from my parents since Im the only hope right now of grandkids and my cousins are reproducing like jackrabbits (super religious).
Well see how it plays out over the next couple years but I completely understand the no kids camp the longer I remain kid less as an adult.
AdventureRacing
Member
I think the solution is to stop viewing this as an issue that needs fixing. The population of all countries doesn't need to keep going upwards and a slight contraction shouldn't be the end of the world (though I realise current market realities make they reality of the situation a little different).
We start making robot people and teach them to reproduce themselves, and also not kill us off. That last one is secondary, but we shouldn't forget about it.
I think that the number of kids growing up in two parent households is more important than the number born into wedlock. Divorce and common law relationships are so common that the wedlock status doesnt mean a ton.
Yeah the main problem is our current set-up in most countries where the younger working force helps subsidize the lives of those too old or disabled to work. You look at the US and Social Security + Medicare and if you dont have a solid working base to pay into these systems, you end up having to pay out too much at an unsustainable rate.
I agree that culturally it shouldnt be a problem, but until we find a way to break away from our current market system (Such as UBI or something) you need to have a solid population base constantly replacing itself. It works out right now in the US that Millenials exist to balance out the Baby Boomers who are just starting to suck huge amounts of government assistance up (which is funny given how much Boomers shit on Millenials).
digitalrelic
Banned
This is great news. I wish this was the trend around the world.
Cymbal Head
Banned
We did it!
They would be idiots. One of the only things stabilizing western economies right now is that they are offsetting the massive decline in birthrates with immigrants/migration. The US and Canada are much better at it because most migration is work or selection based though the US does have a large illegal immigration issue primarily with many overstaying visas or crossing the Southern border.
It is also creating a trend of overpopulating some cities struggling. A low birthrate offset with 200k immigrants who would likely also have children soon to enter school/eventually the workforce than a baby who has to grow etc.
But there is no way to reverse this. Every industrialized nation is suffering this. Even India and China with high rates are much less than they were 50 years ago in terms of birthrates. Most global population growth is in really poor countries where humanitarian aid is sustaining them otherwise they would be dying of starvation and malnutrition. Some countries in Africa or parts of Asia still have over 7+ birthrate.
Will be interesting to see the latter half the cenutry. The population in Africa is expected to increase 2 billion+ while Europe population is going to decline/remain stable or slightly increase through migrant or immigration growth. Nigeria is soon going to challenge the US in terms of population and will be the real African powerhouse going forward. India will surpass China if not already in population in like 6 years.
As for whether you can reverse it. Maybe but you'd need big government to intervene. Force mandatory maternity leave for 2+ years. Have corporations or companies offer things like infant daycare or pre-K care. That way fathers and mothers can go to work, bring their kids and have them in a safe environment withour working. A lot of immigrant families have grandparents or elders to help with child rearing. But the couple barely affording rent in San Francsico is going to get a small purse dog rather than a child. Increase pay equity or wages. If Americans earn more, they can afford the costs of raising a child more. Decrease the costs of tuitions. Most girls put off kids because they cannot juggle work and school with a child. But imagine if tuition rates were low or free for the first two years, people wouldn't need to pick and choose.
Modern western industrialized life does not allow for people to have children without sacrifice and people are no longer willing to sacrifice careers or income or quality of life just to have kids. It is very tough to reverse something like this.
entremet
Member
Thats the story of the West. Strange they dont believe you.
Social programs flat out dont work without growing populations.Good. Stop bringing babies into the world. Enjoy your life
Immigration offsets this but thats not a long term solution.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Who the hell can even afford kids in this day and age?
My wife and I are pretty set on not having any, not for financial reasons mind you, but it just seems bananas trying to budget for kids on top of everything else.
My wife and I are pretty set on not having any, not for financial reasons mind you, but it just seems bananas trying to budget for kids on top of everything else.
GarthVaderUK
Banned
We'll get around to breeding again once the robots take our jobs.
Blackpuppy
Member
Does this surprise anyone, especially with the economy at the moment? Why would anyone in the States really want a kid right now? It's a fortune to go the hospital, a fortune to go to a pediatrician, it's a fortune to put them in daycare...
My God, bless millennials for making lemonade with the shit sandwich they've been handed, but how to people expect anyone in the gig economy to buy cars, buy houses, have kids...? There are all of these studies showing how millennials don't buy houses nor cars nor have kids, well ... no shit Sherlock. They've been keeping their necks above water for years now and things just don't seem to be getting much better for them.
My God, bless millennials for making lemonade with the shit sandwich they've been handed, but how to people expect anyone in the gig economy to buy cars, buy houses, have kids...? There are all of these studies showing how millennials don't buy houses nor cars nor have kids, well ... no shit Sherlock. They've been keeping their necks above water for years now and things just don't seem to be getting much better for them.
UnemployedVillain
Member
Can someone please call Michael Bolton?!
Because the problem isn't the number of people (and really never has been) it's about distribution.
As for the long-term solution, even places like Europe which have extremely generous family policies still have pretty abysmal results to show for it. The idea that the problem is a "work to death" culture doesn't really wash.
I've seen theories that birth rates will tank for people as automation increases.
jackissocool
Member
Why are people so worried about this? There are too damn many of us, and immigrants are filling the economic gap that would be left. I think it's great.
Because our societies depend on the taxes of young, working people, and in turn those people's retirement depends on more young people taking their place. Fewer births means the population ages. Fewer working people means a larger share of the tax burden, and at the extreme end the end of solvency of a lot of social welfare programs.
Hari Seldon
Member
I agree with you that this is a good thing, but the major problem is that a population decline doesn't support the pyramid scheme that is social security and medicare.
jackissocool
Member
But immigrants mean our population is still growing, so none of that should be a problem.
