Bonen no Max'd
Banned
While the major scheduled elections will not take place until November (Virginia, New Jersey), several Trump appointees (and one Jerry Brown appointee) have left several open seats in the United States Congress. These special elections will begin April 4th in California and conclude June 20th. Some of these are important elections that could potentially shape the direction of both parties depending on their results, and as always it's important for engaged civic citizens to have a say in their representatives.
California's 34th Congressional District
Formerly held by Xavier Becerra, now California Attorney General
First Round - April 4th
Second Round - June 6th
California utilizes a jungle primary system where candidates from both parties engage in a first round election and the top two finishers will compete in the second general election. There are currently 19 Democrats and one Republican running for this spot and I don't really know about it because of how many there are. Jimmy Gomez, a state Assemblyman, currently has the endorsement of the state Democratic party. I'll update this after the first round, but this is a guaranteed win by the Democrats so it's just a matter of which one of those 19 makes it.
Kansas's 4th Congressional District
Formerly held by Mike Pompeo, now the director of the CIA for the Trump administration.
Date - April 11th
Background:
Kansas has been Republican for virtually forever. No Democratic senator has been elected there since the 1930s. This shouldn't really be a contested election, except the state has been showing some signs of trending Democratic since the unpopular policies of Governor Sam Brownback have slashed state budgets and left the Sunflower State in financial turmoil. While Trump otherwise performed better than Romney or McCain in 39 states, Kansas was an area where Hillary outperformed Obama by a small margin and the state Democrats picked up thirteen seats in the state legislature. Additionally, in 2014 in what was otherwise a Republican wave Brownback only was reelected by 3 points and has only become more unpopular.
The Candidate:
James Thompson
James Thompson is a veteran and civil rights attorney, notably endorsed by Our Revolution. He'll probably lose to Ron Estes, the state treasurer, but the margins could be revealing in terms of how angry Kansas is about Brownback. Winning this would probably scare the shit out of the GOP, much like Scott Brown's senate victory in Massachusetts.
Georgia's 6th Congressional District
Formerly held by Tom Price, who is now Secretary of Health and Human Services in the Trump administration
First Round - April 18th
Second Round - June 20th
Background:
Like a couple other states, Georgia runs a two-round election system where numerous candidates can run in the first election and in the event that no one candidate gets a majority the top two finishers proceed to a second runoff election to determine the true winner. This district has historically been a Republican stronghold in the northern Atlanta suburbs and the previous incumbent won elections regularly with 20 point margins. However, this district massively shifted in the 2016 election where Trump narrowly won the district by only 1.5 points, though this had no real noticeable downballot effect. Democrats are viewing this as a possible pickup where traditionally Republican suburban voters disgusted with Trump will end up voting for a Democrat.
The Candidate:
Jon Ossoff:
Ossoff is the young Democratic frontrunner in the race. An investigative filmmaker, former congressional aide, and captain of the Millennium Falcon, this would be his first elected office. So far he's raised a surprisingly large amount of money and has been polling very well and looks to easily make it to the second round, where we'll see if he can consolidate enough support to win the seat. GOP are seemingly a bit desperate, running an ad that attacks him for...being a college student once? This race will be interesting to watch, as a Democratic victory or even narrow loss could put fear into other Republicans in suburban districts that Hillary won last year like MN-3. His opponent in the second round looks to be either Karen Handel, the former Georgia Secretary of State and unsucessful candidate for governor and senator, or Bob Gray, a conservative businessman endorsed by Marco Rubio. Either of these are pretty conservative options and don't seem like they're trying to moderate to keep the Clinton-Price voters in line and mostly are attacking Ossoff for his youth, as he would notably be the first Millennial elected to Congress as a Democrat. This is probably the most interesting and contested of all the special elections.
Montana'a At-Large Congressional District
Formerly held by Ryan Zinke, now Secretary of the Interior
Date - May 25
Background:
Montana is sort of a weird state politically. The only election Democrats have won it in since 1948 that wasn't a total blowout was in 1992 but the state has a large enough pool of Republicans who are willing to vote for state Democratic candidates like incumbent senator Jon Tester or current governor Steve Bullock, and the Democrats control a larger share of the state legislature than expected given that this is a state that went for Trump by 20 points.
The Candidate:
Rob Quist
Rob Quist is a banjo-player social democrat endorsed by Our Revolution. Quist previously worked for the Montana Arts Council under former Governor Brian Schweitzer and was the Montana Musical and Cultural Ambassador. Surprisingly left for a Montana candidate, Quist was a supporter of Bernie Sanders during last year's primary and supports Medicare for All and ending foreign military interventions, as well as protecting public lands from privatization. His opponent, Greg Gianforte, unsuccessfully ran for governor of the state last year and is very socially and fiscally conservative, with ties to the Heritage Foundation and Focus on the Family. While this seat hasn't been held by a Democrat since 1996, Gianforte has already lost statewide once before. A victory here by Quist would be a big win for the Sanders wing of the Democrats as evidence of an economically populist message's appeal to white working class voters in rural areas.
South Carolina's 5th Congressional District
Formerly held by Mick Mulvaney, who now heads the Office of Management and Budget for Trump.
Primary: May 2nd
General Election: June 20th
There's virtually no chance this changes hands, but I can update this after the primaries as quite a few Republicans are running for this.
California's 34th Congressional District
Formerly held by Xavier Becerra, now California Attorney General
First Round - April 4th
Second Round - June 6th
California utilizes a jungle primary system where candidates from both parties engage in a first round election and the top two finishers will compete in the second general election. There are currently 19 Democrats and one Republican running for this spot and I don't really know about it because of how many there are. Jimmy Gomez, a state Assemblyman, currently has the endorsement of the state Democratic party. I'll update this after the first round, but this is a guaranteed win by the Democrats so it's just a matter of which one of those 19 makes it.
Kansas's 4th Congressional District
Formerly held by Mike Pompeo, now the director of the CIA for the Trump administration.
Date - April 11th
Background:
Kansas has been Republican for virtually forever. No Democratic senator has been elected there since the 1930s. This shouldn't really be a contested election, except the state has been showing some signs of trending Democratic since the unpopular policies of Governor Sam Brownback have slashed state budgets and left the Sunflower State in financial turmoil. While Trump otherwise performed better than Romney or McCain in 39 states, Kansas was an area where Hillary outperformed Obama by a small margin and the state Democrats picked up thirteen seats in the state legislature. Additionally, in 2014 in what was otherwise a Republican wave Brownback only was reelected by 3 points and has only become more unpopular.
The Candidate:
James Thompson
James Thompson is a veteran and civil rights attorney, notably endorsed by Our Revolution. He'll probably lose to Ron Estes, the state treasurer, but the margins could be revealing in terms of how angry Kansas is about Brownback. Winning this would probably scare the shit out of the GOP, much like Scott Brown's senate victory in Massachusetts.
Georgia's 6th Congressional District
Formerly held by Tom Price, who is now Secretary of Health and Human Services in the Trump administration
First Round - April 18th
Second Round - June 20th
Background:
Like a couple other states, Georgia runs a two-round election system where numerous candidates can run in the first election and in the event that no one candidate gets a majority the top two finishers proceed to a second runoff election to determine the true winner. This district has historically been a Republican stronghold in the northern Atlanta suburbs and the previous incumbent won elections regularly with 20 point margins. However, this district massively shifted in the 2016 election where Trump narrowly won the district by only 1.5 points, though this had no real noticeable downballot effect. Democrats are viewing this as a possible pickup where traditionally Republican suburban voters disgusted with Trump will end up voting for a Democrat.
The Candidate:
Jon Ossoff:
Ossoff is the young Democratic frontrunner in the race. An investigative filmmaker, former congressional aide, and captain of the Millennium Falcon, this would be his first elected office. So far he's raised a surprisingly large amount of money and has been polling very well and looks to easily make it to the second round, where we'll see if he can consolidate enough support to win the seat. GOP are seemingly a bit desperate, running an ad that attacks him for...being a college student once? This race will be interesting to watch, as a Democratic victory or even narrow loss could put fear into other Republicans in suburban districts that Hillary won last year like MN-3. His opponent in the second round looks to be either Karen Handel, the former Georgia Secretary of State and unsucessful candidate for governor and senator, or Bob Gray, a conservative businessman endorsed by Marco Rubio. Either of these are pretty conservative options and don't seem like they're trying to moderate to keep the Clinton-Price voters in line and mostly are attacking Ossoff for his youth, as he would notably be the first Millennial elected to Congress as a Democrat. This is probably the most interesting and contested of all the special elections.
Montana'a At-Large Congressional District
Formerly held by Ryan Zinke, now Secretary of the Interior
Date - May 25
Background:
Montana is sort of a weird state politically. The only election Democrats have won it in since 1948 that wasn't a total blowout was in 1992 but the state has a large enough pool of Republicans who are willing to vote for state Democratic candidates like incumbent senator Jon Tester or current governor Steve Bullock, and the Democrats control a larger share of the state legislature than expected given that this is a state that went for Trump by 20 points.
The Candidate:
Rob Quist
Rob Quist is a banjo-player social democrat endorsed by Our Revolution. Quist previously worked for the Montana Arts Council under former Governor Brian Schweitzer and was the Montana Musical and Cultural Ambassador. Surprisingly left for a Montana candidate, Quist was a supporter of Bernie Sanders during last year's primary and supports Medicare for All and ending foreign military interventions, as well as protecting public lands from privatization. His opponent, Greg Gianforte, unsuccessfully ran for governor of the state last year and is very socially and fiscally conservative, with ties to the Heritage Foundation and Focus on the Family. While this seat hasn't been held by a Democrat since 1996, Gianforte has already lost statewide once before. A victory here by Quist would be a big win for the Sanders wing of the Democrats as evidence of an economically populist message's appeal to white working class voters in rural areas.
South Carolina's 5th Congressional District
Formerly held by Mick Mulvaney, who now heads the Office of Management and Budget for Trump.
Primary: May 2nd
General Election: June 20th
There's virtually no chance this changes hands, but I can update this after the primaries as quite a few Republicans are running for this.
