US PoliGAF 2012 | The Romney VeepStakes: Waiting for Chris Christie to Sing…

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Gallup:
.. conservative Republicans are more likely to say Romney would be an acceptable nominee than either Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum.




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Attacking Romney on his business past is a dead end. I'm not saying it's an invalid point of contention or not a great way to rally the base, rather it will have very little traction with the independent voters that will decide this election.

We all live and have prospered in this free market economy and understand how it works. Bain Capital is merely an extension of it. Calling it a 'job cremator' is being pretty ignorant of reality as nothing is forever and especially in regards to business. Where even getting one off the ground faces steep odds and then even longer odds to remain viable once you get big and the market changes. I remember reading some time ago, that of the Fortune 500 list from the early 60's, only a handful of those businesses still exist today.

We all know this is the reality of America, so we should not be surprised that there is a wealth of companies out there that had outlived their usefulness and became so bloated or defunct that opportunity was there to facilitate transitions. If there were no Bain Capital, the vast majority of those companies still would have failed. Those jobs still would have been lost to the pressures of modernization and globalism that swallowed up hundreds (if not thousands) of similar businesses over the past 50 years.
 
Mkay. Don't put words into my mouth. That wasn't what I was saying; I was arguing that North Carolina and Virginia are not red states anymore as we have previously known them. You come in here touting the recent local and congressional elections by a whiter, older, and more conservative electorate, the precise electorate that doesn't represent the shifting demographics! Just because Maine is going to re-elect Olympia Snowe doesn't mean its voting red come fall. Just because NH has an all-Republican legislature or Congressional district doesn't mean it's going to vote red this fall, nor does it mean it is a "red" state. In both states, the minority vote is small but growing, and thanks to the energy of 2008, it was enough to push both states blue. Even if one or both states vote red in the fall, it doesn't mean that they're both red states again.

Virginia and North Carolina are competitive now in the same way Texas will be in 10-20 years. As time goes on, both states will become more and more purple.
First, your argument is tautological. How are they not red states as we have previously known them if they have not experienced a more permanent shift towards Democrats?

Second, your rejoinder is defective for two reasons. First, if a state's partisan orientation is shifting due to an influx of groups disposed towards Democrats, then we would expect corresponding changes in state and Congressional elections. Although older white voters have higher turnout rates for midterm and off-year elections, their inordinate influence should be moderated by younger, minority voters composing a larger proportion of the electorate. That is, the outcomes should reflect the larger proportion of demographics disposed towards Democrats. Instead, Republicans made substantial gains despite the influx of groups that have purportedly transformed the state. Second, you only addressed a single component of my argument. My analysis is not predicated solely on the recent midterm/off-year elections. Rather, it is predicated on VA and NC being typically solid Republican states with only a single election, 2008, disrupting the trend. Additionally, Republicans experienced substantial gains in subsequent elections despite a demographic shift that purportedly favored Democrats. If NH or ME were typically solid Republican states that had elected Republicans to state/Congressional offices by significant margins, then we could reasonably extrapolate their expected behavior in 2012. Altogether, there is a single election supporting the demographics hypothesis. An election that coincided with a broader national shift towards Democrats. This indicates Obama's victories in NC and VA were primarily due to favorable fundamentals. Again, until additional evidence manifests, identifying demographics as the cause of VA and NC's shift in 2008 is premature.

No, it does not necessarily mean they are both red states again. However, it provides additional evidence against the demographics hypothesis.
 
Interesting. I (and others) don't really think the other candidates are going hard at him at all. They all seem to be posturing a bit for some kind of VP pick (except Newt I guess).

They won't cripple him for the general election, btw. Voters have terrible long-term memories. This primary business is like the sideshow outside the stadium. The real show begins when we're down to a single GOP candidate.

I thought it was just Gingrinch doing the bulk of it, he doesn't give a fuck. Everyone else seems to just give Romney a free pass, lol.
Lol, I guess I'm just diving too deeply into this. Sometimes I forget that not everyone follows "romney" google news results as closely I do. I wonder to what extend they are getting through to the general public? We, and I guess myself especially, can be in such a bubble.

To clarify though, I'm surprised at the tone of what they are saying and the specific sound bytes. I'm pretty sure that Perry, Gingrich, Santorum, and Hunstman all pounced on his "I like firing people", which I consider to have been taken out of context. They took something that should have gone away and made into a line that will be repeated ad nauseam in Obama's super pac ads for the next year. Just in general I'm amazed at their critisism of his Bain years. "Creative destruction" is a core Republican principle, so much so that they actually come off as flip-floppers for trying to criticize him on that point.
 
Lol, I guess I'm just diving too deeply into this. Sometimes I forget that not everyone follows "romney" google news results as closely I do. I wonder to what extend they are getting through to the general public? We, and I guess myself especially, can be in such a bubble.

To clarify though, I'm surprised at the tone of what they are saying and the specific sound bytes. I'm pretty sure that Perry, Gingrich, Santorum, and Hunstman all pounced on his "I like firing people", which I consider to have been taken out of context. They took something that should have gone away and made into a line that will be repeated ad nauseam in Obama's super pac ads for the next year. Just in general I'm amazed at their critisism of his Bain years. "Creative destruction" is a core Republican principle, so much so that they actually come off as flip-floppers for trying to criticize him on that point.

I also think it's kind of funny that the Republicans are jumping on him for his Bain years. You're right all 4 of them said something about it. Perry even turned the "I like firing people" thing into a ringtone I guess. Jon Stewart did a nice bit on it yesterday, actually. Stewart's pretty much right. Romney is kind of an embodiment of the Republican policies in a way, and now his opponents don't like it.
 
I also think it's kind of funny that the Republicans are jumping on him for his Bain years. You're right all 4 of them said something about it. Perry even turned the "I like firing people" thing into a ringtone I guess. Jon Stewart did a nice bit on it yesterday, actually. Stewart's pretty much right. Romney is kind of an embodiment of the Republican policies in a way, and now his opponents don't like it.
Right.

I may be naive here, but I'm kind of hoping this becomes the key topic of debate for the general election. Do we as a country want a colder more efficient capitalism that values GDP above all else or a kinder socialistic capitalism that most values good middle-class jobs.

This may seem overly obvious, but even in his most progressive posturing Obama still seems shackled by America's unflinching love for pure capitalism. This election seems like a real opportunity to put our core economic beliefs up for debate.
 
Also, Romney is going to have to stay hard right to appeal to those voters. As he goes hard right, he's going to lose independent voters in the process.

When it comes to a head-to-head with Obama, you have Obama who is charismatic and connects with the audience, and you have Romney who is kind of weird, and has trouble connecting with the audience.

Let's be honest; The only reason Obama is going to have trouble in this election is because he's a black guy. If Obama had been white with his record, he'd be skating to re-election against this joke of a GOP field.

I disagree with that. Outside of the most racist of states/areas,Obama's race has nothing to do with it. People just want someone to demonize and they have been told that anyone on the left is evil and does not have your best interests at heart.
 
I also think it's kind of funny that the Republicans are jumping on him for his Bain years. You're right all 4 of them said something about it. Perry even turned the "I like firing people" thing into a ringtone I guess. Jon Stewart did a nice bit on it yesterday, actually. Stewart's pretty much right. Romney is kind of an embodiment of the Republican policies in a way, and now his opponents don't like it.

Wow. That actually was really really good. Mitt Romney is the do as I say not as I do republican. He really is the perfect candidate for the GOP and they tear him down for it.
 
Obama lost an 8 point lead in the final days of the NH primary. Romney will win no doubt win but the question becomes "by how much." Polls suggest Gingrich will do decently, and he'll continue to SC regardless. Which gives Romney a chance to win there as well, something that still baffles me. Jeez, conservatives really have this thing to Romney.

There's still lots of time but we're pretty much at a point where it might not matter. Even after this becomes a three man race many voters will have fallen in line, as they did in 08 when the race turned into McCain v Huck v Paul
 
Obama lost an 8 point lead in the final days of the NH primary. Romney will win no doubt win but the question becomes "by how much." Polls suggest Gingrich will do decently, and he'll continue to SC regardless. Which gives Romney a chance to win there as well, something that still baffles me. Jeez, conservatives really have this thing to Romney.

There's still lots of time but we're pretty much at a point where it might not matter. Even after this becomes a three man race many voters will have fallen in line, as they did in 08 when the race turned into McCain v Huck v Paul

Romney actually went up 4 points in the latest NH poll after losing about a point a day for a week.

Also I just saw the video of Christies basically telling someone chick trying to shout him down to blow him, LOL
 
If unemployment stays high I think that it is going to be much tougher for Obama than a lot of people want to admit. You can tell that's the biggest concern he has since Axelrod has been out there pre-emptively campaigning that republicans screwed up the economy on purpose to hurt Obama's reelection chances. The same claims of "it's not my fault" that we've heard from Obama for the last 3 years are already framing his reelection bid. The question in my mind is whether people are going to buy it.

On the other hand, if unemployment drops by .1 a month from now until election day Obama will be in about the same place Reagan was in 1984.

Also, I don't think the other candidates are going hard at Romney at all, at least not in the debates. Are the NH ads more vicious?
 
Obama lost an 8 point lead in the final days of the NH primary. Romney will win no doubt win but the question becomes "by how much." Polls suggest Gingrich will do decently, and he'll continue to SC regardless. Which gives Romney a chance to win there as well, something that still baffles me. Jeez, conservatives really have this thing to Romney.

There's still lots of time but we're pretty much at a point where it might not matter. Even after this becomes a three man race many voters will have fallen in line, as they did in 08 when the race turned into McCain v Huck v Paul
When was Paul ever one of the 3 top players in '08?
 
First, your argument is tautological. How are they not red states as we have previously known them if they have not experienced a more permanent shift towards Democrats?
I addressed this in my post already, but if you're not going to read it I don't see why I should respond to you.

You come at me with the same points to which I have already refuted, and you say my argument is tautological? I can, just as you have but with 2008, easily attribute any Republican gain in 2010 and 2011 to the "fundamentals of [2010]" as much as you can attribute both states going blue to the "fundamentals of 2008." But that's lazy. You talk about how the Congressional elections of 2010 refute the demographic argument, but you're largely ignoring the percentage with which they won by. Any seat change in NC and Virginia was won by less than a five percent margin except for one. Only one seat changed from Dem to Rep in North Carolina – and he only lost because he got mad at some reporter, and lost by less than one percent. The only seats that changed hats in Virginia were Southern seats – the part of the state in which Obama didn't do as well, the part of the state that's not the reason for it going blue in 2008. None of these were blowouts like Louisiana's Third in which the Democratic incumbent lost by a twenty-seven point margin. Hell, you saw Democratic representatives in New York losing by a larger margin than almost any in Virginia and NC. And I'm not even hitting the fact that Obama was winning in both states where the people were. New York is a blue state but because of the distribution of its population it has a Republican senate. I live in NC. I know what's going on in my state.

If anything, the more I look at this, the more its up in the air. But I think you're ignoring the fact that when you say it was the fundamentals of 2008, it went that way in large part because of the changing demographics. That's not to say they won't go red in 2012, but to assume the other way is like putting the horse before the carriage.
 
I disagree with that. Outside of the most racist of states/areas,Obama's race has nothing to do with it. People just want someone to demonize and they have been told that anyone on the left is evil and does not have your best interests at heart.

Well I have to disagree as well. Its quite a bit beyond just "the left". Republican candidates are injecting all types of nasty code words into the discussion.

Also, I've never seen a president being attacked the way Obama's been attacked. Rush Limbaugh has called the Obamas "uppity" more times than I care to count. Santorum and Gingrich drop race bombs every chance they get.

Let's not even get into the crap that some Ron Paul supporters talk about. Some of it looks like it was lifted right off of Stormfront.
 
Attacking Romney on his business past is a dead end. I'm not saying it's an invalid point of contention or not a great way to rally the base, rather it will have very little traction with the independent voters that will decide this election.

We all live and have prospered in this free market economy and understand how it works. Bain Capital is merely an extension of it. Calling it a 'job cremator' is being pretty ignorant of reality as nothing is forever and especially in regards to business. Where even getting one off the ground faces steep odds and then even longer odds to remain viable once you get big and the market changes. I remember reading some time ago, that of the Fortune 500 list from the early 60's, only a handful of those businesses still exist today.

We all know this is the reality of America, so we should not be surprised that there is a wealth of companies out there that had outlived their usefulness and became so bloated or defunct that opportunity was there to facilitate transitions. If there were no Bain Capital, the vast majority of those companies still would have failed. Those jobs still would have been lost to the pressures of modernization and globalism that swallowed up hundreds (if not thousands) of similar businesses over the past 50 years.

You're sure applying a lot of logic and reason to the gullible and emotional and illogical American voter.
 
We all know this is the reality of America, so we should not be surprised that there is a wealth of companies out there that had outlived their usefulness and became so bloated or defunct that opportunity was there to facilitate transitions. If there were no Bain Capital, the vast majority of those companies still would have failed. Those jobs still would have been lost to the pressures of modernization and globalism that swallowed up hundreds (if not thousands) of similar businesses over the past 50 years.

Yeah, but to the worker its a bit easier to swallow when a small company goes under on its own terms. Its harder to swallow when a small company goes under after a huge firm from out of state moves in and takes it over, changes the culture, and the general direction of the company, and then fires everyone. The results are the same, but the path to that result is very different. Especially when you find out later that the big company that swallowed your smaller company is filthy stinking rich, and you're unemployed.
 
You're sure applying a lot of logic and reason to the gullible and emotional and illogical American voter.

I was really speaking more specifically to people like me. Independent/R-leaner. I even said so in the first paragraph.




venn-of-paul.jpg


I think this sums up the confusing nature of Paul. The media can't boil him down to a few soundbytes and he doesn't fit within the traditional paradigms that everyone is used to. So they just choose to ignore him.
 
Obama lost an 8 point lead in the final days of the NH primary. Romney will win no doubt win but the question becomes "by how much." Polls suggest Gingrich will do decently, and he'll continue to SC regardless. Which gives Romney a chance to win there as well, something that still baffles me. Jeez, conservatives really have this thing to Romney.

There's still lots of time but we're pretty much at a point where it might not matter. Even after this becomes a three man race many voters will have fallen in line, as they did in 08 when the race turned into McCain v Huck v Paul
I seriously doubt Romney will fall off from the polls by the time results are counted tomorrow night.

To those that say that Romney can't win by simply being an alternative to Obama, do you really think the not-romney sentiment will persist among primary voters? Gingrich is torching his chances at the nomination with his attack on Romney and core principles of the party. Every other candidate has shown more negatives than him at this point. His national poll numbers will continue to rise.
 
To those that say that Romney can't win by simply being an alternative to Obama, do you really think the not-romney sentiment will persist among primary voters? Gingrich is torching his chances at the nomination with his attack on Romney and core principles of the party. Every other candidate has shown more negatives than him at this point. His national poll numbers will continue to rise.

Yep. Romney has this nomination in the bag.
 
I seriously doubt Romney will fall off from the polls by the time results are counted tomorrow night.

To those that say that Romney can't win by simply being an alternative to Obama, do you really think the not-romney sentiment will persist among primary voters? Gingrich is torching his chances at the nomination with his attack on Romney and core principles of the party. Every other candidate has shown more negatives than him at this point. His national poll numbers will continue to rise.

I don't believe Romney will suffer a huge loss of support in the final hours of NH, I'm just pointing out he might not win as big as others think due to his recent gaffes; but as Kosmo pointed out, Romney is rebounding in the last minute polls.

Republicans will rally around Romney by the end of this thing, it's inevitable. And with a good VP choice he should be able to ease/shut up Evangelical leaders. He's their best shot at being president, and while he's clearly not a conservative I think it's safe to say he'll govern as one with respect to many issues (abortion for instance, which is 90% of what Evangelicals care about). I maintain he'll probably work with democrats if he wants to get anything big done, and in some ways he will be more effective than Obama. Every candidate went on record in support of federal infrastructure during the Saturday debate, yet would reject any infrastructure plan Obama proposes. If a Romney presidency means we get some (re-named) stimulus spending that's a good thing. It's certainly not going to happen with Obama in office, especially considering we'll most likely continue having divided congress after the election
 
I was really speaking more specifically to people like me. Independent/R-leaner. I even said so in the first paragraph.

Maybe I'm underestimating them, but I don't think the average Independent is necessarily as knowledgeable or unemotional as you.


Also I just saw the video of Christies basically telling someone chick trying to shout him down to blow him, LOL

Yeh. He shuwa showed dat broad, right?
 
I seriously doubt Romney will fall off from the polls by the time results are counted tomorrow night.

To those that say that Romney can't win by simply being an alternative to Obama, do you really think the not-romney sentiment will persist among primary voters? Gingrich is torching his chances at the nomination with his attack on Romney and core principles of the party. Every other candidate has shown more negatives than him at this point. His national poll numbers will continue to rise.

I think enough will find Romney to be fake to stay home, the Nobama sentiment does not just fall to whoever has an R.

If Romney did not cater to whoever he speaks to and had charisma I would be very scared if I was Obama. Luckily Romney is a robot whose contributions to politics have been more moderate than right wing, and he stumbles when countered by any kind of heavy hitting.

not saying Obama is unbeatable, just really don't feel Romney is the one to do it with as hardcore and right as the GOP has become. He will need to appeal to Indepdents and in a General its really hard to do both in recent years.
 
It should resonate. The thing is whether mainstream media will be as critical of the claim or not, or will they just report his stump speech and claims verbatim.

We're seeing a great deal of reporting on it currently. If that carries forward - and I suspect it will - Romney is going to have a rough run.
 
Maybe I'm underestimating them, but I don't think the average Independent is necessarily as knowledgeable or unemotional as you.

Well, it's all speculation. I just think what Romney did then doesn't really carry much weight today (unless you were already hardwired/inclined to hold disdain forthat line of work to begin with). Just laminates the perception, rather than opening any new eyes.

If the voters REALLY placed a value on what these people did in their private business life, then you would think Bush (and all his failures) and Obama (his complete lack of experience) would have fared much worse.

Speak for yourself, please. Many, many people have not prospered in this "free market economy."

This view brought to me via the internet.
 
As far as polling goes, I'd agree it's very early... it's just that when you look at all the candidates, Obama doesn't have much to worry about up against anyone but Romney by default. This is why it sucks so bad that the voters seem to be sticking with Romney, even if reluctantly. Democrats did the same with Kerry, but frankly he's not as admired among moderates like Romney is. That is an advantage Kerry did not have. Republicans will vote for Romney reluctantly, just like Democrats did for Kerry; the difference is moderates will be much more enthused about voting for Romney than they were for John Kerry, no doubt. I am not saying they'd necessarily be jumping for joy to vote for him, but they would at least have a better feeling about it. This is what can push him over the top.
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i'm convinced you substitute your own reality to convince yourself that things are worse than they really are. Romney is not admired by anybody.
 
I don't believe Romney will suffer a huge loss of support in the final hours of NH, I'm just pointing out he might not win as big as others think due to his recent gaffes; but as Kosmo pointed out, Romney is rebounding in the last minute polls.

Republicans will rally around Romney by the end of this thing, it's inevitable. And with a good VP choice he should be able to ease/shut up Evangelical leaders. He's their best shot at being president, and while he's clearly not a conservative I think it's safe to say he'll govern as one with respect to many issues (abortion for instance, which is 90% of what Evangelicals care about). I maintain he'll probably work with democrats if he wants to get anything big done, and in some ways he will be more effective than Obama. Every candidate went on record in support of federal infrastructure during the Saturday debate, yet would reject any infrastructure plan Obama proposes. If a Romney presidency means we get some (re-named) stimulus spending that's a good thing. It's certainly not going to happen with Obama in office, especially considering we'll most likely continue having divided congress after the election
I honestly agree with this. Our political system is so fucked up.

Honestly though, even if/when Obama is elected I really do believe that the gridlock will ease up. At a certain point we need the government to start working again. I can imagine a repeat of what happened in the the Clinton/Gingrich years. A do-nothing congress can't persist forever.
 
I honestly agree with this. Our political system is so fucked up.

Honestly though, even if/when Obama is elected I really do believe that the gridlock will ease up. At a certain point we need the government to start working again. I can imagine a repeat of what happened in the the Clinton/Gingrich years. A do-nothing congress can't persist forever.

I doubt that. If Republicans fail to defeat Obama, they're going to be pissed.
 
I think enough will find Romney to be fake to stay home, the Nobama sentiment does not just fall to whoever has an R.

If Romney did not cater to whoever he speaks to and had charisma I would be very scared if I was Obama. Luckily Romney is a robot whose contributions to politics have been more moderate than right wing, and he stumbles when countered by any kind of heavy hitting.

not saying Obama is unbeatable, just really don't feel Romney is the one to do it with as hardcore and right as the GOP has become. He will need to appeal to Indepdents and in a General its really hard to do both in recent years.
The point I am trying to make relates only to the primary. The attacks on Romney will ultimately hurt him in the general election, but they won't prevent him from getting the nomination. The only result for Gingrich will be a further tarnished image in republican circles.
 
I seriously doubt Romney will fall off from the polls by the time results are counted tomorrow night.

To those that say that Romney can't win by simply being an alternative to Obama, do you really think the not-romney sentiment will persist among primary voters? Gingrich is torching his chances at the nomination with his attack on Romney and core principles of the party. Every other candidate has shown more negatives than him at this point. His national poll numbers will continue to rise.

Romney kills the right's momentum though. In a cycle when their base should be whipped into a frenzy, pouring money into the coffers and bodies to run a ground campaign, he will take the wind out of their sails.

Evangelicals do not like him. This is why they've tried a host of other candidates before settling behind Santorum.

Libertarian minded conservatives don't like his war hawk attitude and have long since aligned themselves behind Ron Paul.

The Tea Party types view him as another big government Taxachusetts wealthy elitist who uses the system to his personal gain.

He can't break that ~25-30% barrier in the vast majority of primary states because nearly 3/4ths of registered republicans just flat out dislike his core views. That isn't going to change when he gets into a general election and needs to start pulling his narrative towards the middle.

Meanwhile Obama is at an all time low with the democratic base due to complaints about him "not doing what he promised" (massive misrepresentation of the facts, but regardless). Those people will ultimately get in line though when they see Romney pick up the Pro-Life cause, continue opposition of gay rights, and give stump speeches about invading Iran.

Obama will have much more money than Romney come the general, even if Romney doesn't get drug into a slug fest of a primary. Obama's campaign staff has long been building on their '08 groundwork.

Early small leads in a handful of polls could get Romney the nomination, but its going to make the far right feel really damn bitter when they plug their noses, vote for a guy they really don't think represents them, and he still loses the general. Which will happen as long as we continue to see another 12 months of slow but steady economic improvement.
 
Extolling the virtues of public research and government spending? Seems to undermine your point, but extol away.

Hurray, a semantics pissing match with EV! Today must be a day that ends in -y.

There is no free market in the world that compares to the internet. So, while the kernel of it was created via the military, what has come forth has had almost no interference to become what we know today. Also, public research and spending that was funded by the 'free' market in the first place.

So, now I'm the chicken and you're the egg .. or is it the other way around?
 
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