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[Eric C]

Can't put the entire article in quotes here on GAF, but click the source to read it in full.
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/25/12031254/no-brexit-article-50

Fun fact: Brexit, the United Kingdom’s narrow vote to exit the European Union, is not actually legally binding.

The Prime Minister, be it David Cameron (who has resigned but could remain in office until October) or his successor (almost certainly pro-Brexit former London mayor Boris Johnson) can simply decide to ignore the result. In practice, it’s hard to see that happening; the voters have spoken, and politicians are loath to overturn the express will of the people.

But Cameron still hasn’t done the one thing he needs to do to ensure that the UK actually exits: invoke Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. And until he does, there are still ways he could keep Brexit from happening.


[...]


Scenario 1: Let Scotland save you. Under the Scotland Act 1998, it appears that the Scottish Parliament has to consent to measures that eliminate EU law's application in Scotland. At least that was the conclusion of a report on Brexit released by the House of Lords, the upper house of Britain’s parliament:


So here’s what Cameron or Johnson could do, in three steps:

1. Announce they are respecting the terms of devolution and allowing the Scottish, Northern Irish, and Welsh parliaments to vote before invoking Article 50.
   
2. Wait for one of them to vote against leaving. The Scottish and Northern Irish parliaments would be under a lot of pressure to do so, due to their constituents’ views. The Scottish National Party, which has the biggest bloc in Scottish parliament, could want Brexit to go forward to build support for Scottish independence, but it would be hard for them to vote that cynically. The Northern Irish Assembly’s biggest party, the Democratic Unionist Party, was pro-Brexit, but it could understandably flip if it fears that actually leaving the EU could lead to Northern Ireland leaving the UK. The Welsh Assembly is led by the Labour Party; Wales voted to Leave, but Labour could vote its own position and shoot down exiting.
   
3. Once one or more of the subnational legislatures votes to reject Brexit, the Prime Minister announces he’s not invoking Article 50 after all, using the regional veto to save face.

Again, Cameron or Johnson doesn’t have to do any of this. But it’s a plausible way to avoid leaving.

[...]

Scenario 2: Dawdle on invoking Article 50 by having another referendum. This would be a bit odd so soon after the first one, but there’s nothing preventing the government from calling a do-over, and there might be political willpower for it.

[...]

Scenario 3: Dawdle on invoking Article 50 and have an actual general election. "There's a reasonable case to be made that this should go to an election given that the prime minister resigned," Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, told me in an interview. Then, if either the Labour Party (which strongly opposes Brexit) or a split-off faction of the Conservatives that opposes Brexit were to win the election, they could claim that as a mandate to cancel the results of the referendum.

I find Scenario 1 the most intriguing, if it happens that way. Which it may not.

 

[Izuna]

It's #Regrexit

...

 

[Volimar]

#1 is what a lot of Scots on social media seem to be clinging to.

 

[blackflag]

I just have a feeling after the last 2 days that they aren't going through with it...and they shouldnt

 

[Zaptruder]

BUT THE PEOPLE VOTED! THEY'VE SPOKEN! NO TAKE BRACKSIES! NOOO!

Call a second referendum. If it's really the people's will once informed as they are now, then so be it. If it's not, then it's clear that the lies and propaganda, and the belief that such a drastic thing wasn't going to happen was a clear factor in subverting the will of democracy in the first referendum.

Like... it's actually incredible the number of improbable things that have had to happen to get us to this stage. It's all the more frustrating to realize that things could still be stopped, but there are those essentially shouting that democracy shouldn't be toyed with and that people should just live with it.

When the backlash is so immediate and obvious, and when the recourse is available - it's a special sort of hubris that allows millions of people over the generations to take the hit for a relatively brief moment of apathy and ignorance.

A second referendum is most preferable for the purpose of keeping peace in the democracy - Brexiters will complain that they already won the vote, but Remainers can point to the fact that once properly apprised of the consequences of the Leave vote, democracy chose the opposite - the other options, although more likely to halt the disastrous process would weaken the legitimacy of government in the eyes of the people (as if it wasn't already on a tepid ground).

 

[ErnieMcCracken]

Too bad the U.S. couldn't redo the 2000 election...

 

[FelixOrion]

 

[George Oscar Bluth II]

But

Muh democracy

 

[pa22word]

Forgive me if this is pure nonsense, but couldn't the house of lords bail you guys out too?isn't that kind of the entire point of having an unelected legislative body, to keep the common folk from committing sepuku ignorantly, even if today it is mostly ceremonial?

 

[Jarmel]

Seems like the bigger problem is Cameron resigning. Boris Johnson is going to invoke Article 50 on the first day.

 

[Zaptruder]

Too bad the U.S. couldn't redo the 2000 election...

It kills me that Gore stopped the recount just to be gracious. And then George W Bush happened to the world. Every time I think about that moment, I realize that we've somehow taken the darkest timeline.

Which also makes me think... if you believe in what you do as a politician, if you believe in your supporters - it's necessary and important to discard good grace and fight tooth and nail to get your views represented. Which is why I can't begrudge Sanders for been a dick even as the window of possibility closes down to nothing.

If Gore had taken that stance, we might not be on this darkest timeline. Instead, we have a good statesman in Gore, and fucking Iraqi warlords beheading people, millions dead, trillions wasted, etc, etc.

In this case... it probably won't be as extreme... but then, you'd never predict the current timeline outcomes based on the fact that Gore decided to concede early in the recount.

 

[dity]

The UK can move to Australia. Then we can all have fun together. Bring your gold.

 

[Sloane]

I just have a feeling after the last 2 days that they aren't going through with it...and they shouldnt

I agree. But I've also got the feeling the EU wants the UK out, so should be interesting.

 

[jellies_two]

Time for the Queen to break the vow of not interfering? after all her representative in Australia did it once already by sacking Gough Whitlam.

It doesn't matter how they finangle it, it won't be forgiven. If the remains are annoyed now it is nothing compared to the resentment of the Brexit voters if their majority vote and effort to you know actually turn up at the polls is diluted via fancy footwork and cheers from the other side. Ugh. What a nasty brew the establishment might come up with to avoid the consequences of their own mistakes.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Can't the queen step in and dissolve parliament, and takeover the empire once again??? Or how about we let the UK become the 51st state, and the USA applies to the EU (with Canada and Mexiso as the 52nd and 53rd states)???

 

[Zaptruder]

I agree. But I've also got the feeling the EU wants the UK out, so should be interesting.

The EU doesn't want the UK out. That would weaken the EU and put it under the threat of more member states leaving.

But if the UK does choose to leave, they want to make it as punishing for the UK as possible to prevent further dissent.

 

[maniac-kun]

Thats all fine but the EU demands action until tuesday.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausla...t-austrittsantrag-bis-dienstag-a-1099824.html

 

[jellies_two]

Thats all fine but the EU demands action until tuesday.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausla...t-austrittsantrag-bis-dienstag-a-1099824.html

Merkel doesn't and she has the most power in the EU.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Given that the world has already been signalled that Britain is an unreliable wild card, would taking it back (with the future possibility of untakebackingit) really restore calm to the market? The Euroskeptic forces have already been strengthened by the victory. Much of the damage is done. Rip the bandaid.

 

[sphagnum]

Option 1 is really intriguing. Cameron would be a moron not to do it to try to save face.

But, well, he's a moron. So...

 

[Fularu]

Seeing how the UK has been a thorn in EU's side since its entrance and has done nothing but hold it back and undermine its work, it would be in Europe's best interest to see them gone.

There was a reason De Gaulle didn't want the UK inside the EU and his reasons have proven to be true to this day.

 

[pa22word]

Seeing how the UK has been a thorn in EU's side since its entrance and has done nothing but hold it back and undermine its work, it would be in Europe's best interest to see them gone.

There was a reason De Gaulle didn't want the UK inside the EU and his reasons have proven to be true to this day.

De gaulle was kind of an asshole who viewed anything that was a check on French, and therefore his power, as a bad thing.


UK leaving would be bad for everyone.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Forgive me if this is pure nonsense, but couldn't the house of lords bail you guys out too?isn't that kind of the entire point of having an unelected legislative body, to keep the common folk from committing sepuku ignorantly, even if today it is mostly ceremonial?

House of Lords could delay Brexit, but they do not have a veto. They must accept a bill the third time it is presented to them; a sufficiently determined Commons can always overturn the Lords.

 

[Syder]

Seeing how the UK has been a thorn in EU's side since its entrance and has done nothing but hold it back and undermine its work, it would be in Europe's best interest to see them gone.

You can't seriously believe this? Any of the EU's megapowers leaving is bad for the Union as a whole. Britian leaving could be the first step in the dissolution of the European Union.

 

[Fularu]

De gaulle was kind of an asshole who viewed anything that was a check on French, and therefore his power, as a bad thing.


UK leaving would be bad for everyone.

The UK has played a stalling, denigrating role ever since they joined the EU. They've fought every single step forward with vigor and have been demeaning it at every single turn, be it from the labor or from the torries. The most pro european political leaders shat on the EU from great heights whenever they could.

 

[Burt]

It kills me that Gore stopped the recount just to be gracious. And then George W Bush happened to the world. Every time I think about that moment, I realize that we've somehow taken the darkest timeline.

Which also makes me think... if you believe in what you do as a politician, if you believe in your supporters - it's necessary and important to discard good grace and fight tooth and nail to get your views represented. Which is why I can't begrudge Sanders for been a dick even as the window of possibility closes down to nothing.

If Gore had taken that stance, we might not be on this darkest timeline. Instead, we have a good statesman in Gore, and fucking Iraqi warlords beheading people, millions dead, trillions wasted, etc, etc.

In this case... it probably won't be as extreme... but then, you'd never predict the current timeline outcomes based on the fact that Gore decided to concede early in the recount.

I'm mostly in agreement with you, but Gore conceding was about much more than "good grace". It's dramatized, but Woody Harrelson's speech in Game Change is a pretty concise statement on the importance of a smooth, if not dignified, changeover in government. Refusing to concede to the extreme is an incredibly dangerous precedent to set. It's like the debt ceiling debate, which is going to be an issue ad infinium now that we shut the government down once over it, except, you know, even bigger.

Honestly, it's the thing that scares me about Trump the most. Bad presidents have checks and balances put in place against them, but someone like Trump, who doesn't seem likely to ever admit defeat and who has a fanatical base that takes every single word he says as objective truth, could really do enormous damage to the credibility of the entire process. If it's a close race, he'll have a lot of bargaining power with the dipshit Republicans who would do anything to keep Hilary out of office.

Granted, conceding to Bush didn't exactly pan out well, but this really isn't the sort of thing to which you can apply hindsight.

On topic, the non-binding nature of this referendum makes it a completely different beast.

 

[titiklabingapat]

You can't seriously believe this? Any of the EU's megapowers leaving is bad for the Union as a whole. Britian leaving could be the first step in the dissolution of the European Union.

The damage us already done though. It's in the EU's best interest now to minimize the damage. There is a reason why they want a swift cut right away.

The seeds have been sown and the fields have been tilled. The harvest won't be good but there is nothing you can do but reap what has been sown.

 

[Sloane]

The EU doesn't want the UK out. That would weaken the EU and put it under the threat of more member states leaving.

I'm not sure. Listening to folks like Junker and Schulz over the last couple of days, they sound very eager for the UK to sign the exit papers as quickly as possible, before they can change their mind. Might be part of their negotiation and "scare" tactics -- or they weren't all too happy with the UK's role in the EU over the last few years which, from their perspective, would be kinda understandable. Also, the UK leaving might weaken the EU at first sight but if it shifts a part of the UK's economy to Germany, Benelux, and France, they might not be all to sad about it.

 

[Fularu]

You can't seriously believe this? Any of the EU's megapowers leaving is bad for the Union as a whole. Britian leaving could be the first step in the dissolution of the European Union.

The damage's already done and you don't want an abusive partner in your relationship.

Cut ties quick and make it a very heavy price.

 

[Izuna]

Seems like the bigger problem is Cameron resigning. Boris Johnson is going to invoke Article 50 on the first day.

No he wont

 

[Lime]

I'm not sure. Listening to folks like Junker and Schulz over the last couple of days, they sound very eager for the UK to sign the exit papers as quickly as possible, before they can change their mind. Might be part of their negotiation and "scare" tactics -- or they weren't all too happy with the UK's role in the EU over the last few years which, from their perspective, would be kinda understandable. Also, the UK leaving might weaken the EU at first sight but if it shifts a part of the UK's economy to Germany, Benelux, and France, they might not be all to sad about it.

The reason for the demand by the EU for a quick exit is to calm the markets and make things more predictable and stable.

 

[Madness]

Just read that article. Doesn't take into account reality and is heavy on the assumptions. The EU is pretty adamant at an expedited removal of the UK now. They don't want this dragged out for two years while the UK waffles.

There is a reason UKIP has become so popular and why Leave had almost two million more votes. What do you think will happen if after that referendum the polital elite just go 'Whoops this turned out bad, we're staying'. That the voters who voted Leave would just say okay? You would probably literally create ultranationalists out of a large number of them.

Also, the damage is done. The currency dropped and the world now knows the UK doesn't want to be part of the EU and that the EU itself didn't see this coming. Even if Britain stays, investment will decline because who knows if UKIP becomes the #1 party in 10 years and votes out again anyway etc. These articles are just sour grapes to me for some reason. Even worse is how so many Americans and American news media keep trying to bring Trump into it as if they have any similarities beyond populism and nationalism in elections, something you could see in every country.

 

[weekev]

It's done, as much as I'd like it not to be we are not going back. The quicker people realise this and stop looking for loopholes there is zero appetite for politicians to use the better. Were not having a second vote and David Cameron has already fallen on his sword so will not be using loopholes to undo the will of the general public.

We need to now accept defeat and get behind this rather than cause more uncertainty to prove that our economy can flourish without the single market and all the reasons that we should have stayed in the EU.

 

[weekev]

Even worse is how so many Americans and American news media keep trying to bring Trump into it as if they have any similarities beyond populism and nationalism in elections, something you could see in every country.

Because Farage is the face of the Leave campaign and Trump and Farage are like tomaytoes and tomatoes. One is a xenophobic douchebag whose main policy is to stop allowing people to come into his country based on ignorance and lies and the other is Donald Trump.

If you put them in a room together and told them to fight to the death, you'd want them both to win.

 

[Korey]

#Brundo or #Brevert are way more catchy

 

[Sinfamy]

Not gonna happen.
It's like asking for massive riots and protests.

 

[ISOM]

Given that the world has already been signalled that Britain is an unreliable wild card, would taking it back (with the future possibility of untakebackingit) really restore calm to the market? The Euroskeptic forces have already been strengthened by the victory. Much of the damage is done. Rip the bandaid.

Agreed. Britain may not invoke article 50 but the impact to the EU and right wing nationalism across Europe has already been done.

 

[ISOM]

Just read that article. Doesn't take into account reality and is heavy on the assumptions. The EU is pretty adamant at an expedited removal of the UK now. They don't want this dragged out for two years while the UK waffles.

There is a reason UKIP has become so popular and why Leave had almost two million more votes. What do you think will happen if after that referendum the polital elite just go 'Whoops this turned out bad, we're staying'. That the voters who voted Leave would just say okay? You would probably literally create ultranationalists out of a large number of them.

Also, the damage is done. The currency dropped and the world now knows the UK doesn't want to be part of the EU and that the EU itself didn't see this coming. Even if Britain stays, investment will decline because who knows if UKIP becomes the #1 party in 10 years and votes out again anyway etc. These articles are just sour grapes to me for some reason. Even worse is how so many Americans and American news media keep trying to bring Trump into it as if they have any similarities beyond populism and nationalism in elections, something you could see in every country.

If American media are bringing Trump into this conversation, then it's a warning to Americans who will go the polls this November. It is very easy to not take serious the populist right wing rhetoric of guys like him and you Farage. And then before you know it, you didn't think you had to vote and you get the worst outcome possible.

 

[Amon37]

On the local news in Arizona it said England wanted a second proposal because people didn't vote the first time thinking it wouldn't pass and now are like wait can we a do over so I can vote this time?

 

[jerry113]

I have a solution. They should do a referendum asking the citizens of the UK if they would like a de-over of the first referendum.

 

[CanUKlehead]

The damage's already done and you don't want an abusive partner in your relationship.

Cut ties quick and make it a very heavy price.

This is my thought. Why the hell would the EU wants us back? If I were them, and vindictive, I'd make it difficult for the UK to get good deals with the EU, looking to prove to its members there's no benefit to leaving. Political suicide? Probably, but if they're desperate, they'd do it. Their assertive but not-entirely-disrespectful response of 'fine, but get out now' is pretty masterful in my eyes. They seem way more prepared than the UK politicians anyway in the initial aftermath.

And I don't agree with the result, but I will defend your right to vote how you did and to claim this victory. The 50% +1 'win condition' was never in dispute until now, it was won fair and square. If ppl claim they felt they were lied to, welcome to politics. You should've done more research if it was so important to you.

If we get another referendum, I'd be shocked though a bit happy for selfish reasons. But it's a pretty dangerous precedent.

For those who didn't vote, didn't think their vote would count, or voted Leave for the luls, fuck off. You don't get to complain.

(I just went to fb for the first time since Thu and the vitriol from my pro-Remain friends is just sickening. Some are acting as bad as the people they claim are awful)

 

[jerry113]

Honestly, I think it'd look a little embarassing on the world stage to do a take backsies. Not a good look.

 

[Walpurgis]

Honestly, I think it'd look a little embarassing on the world stage to do a take backsies. Not a good look.

More embarrassing than having a referendum and actually voting to leave the EU?

 

[CanUKlehead]

More embarrassing than having a referendum and actually voting to leave the EU?

We'd be more of a laughingstock

 

[Lime]

Honestly, I think it'd look a little embarassing on the world stage to do a take backsies. Not a good look.

The U.K. already made a huge embarrassment out of themselves when they voted Leave and willingly shot themselves in the kneecaps because of fear of immigration and (false) lack of sovereignty

 

[Hip Hop]

More embarrassing than having a referendum and actually voting to leave the EU?

Yeah. It wouldn't be a good precedent at all.

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

Like I've said before, the government finding a way around it to not have to actually invoke it would be the best immediate scenario for the UK. I would also like to note that Spain made 'an offer' for Gibraltar before the market even opened (7 or 8 am that they published it, markets open at 9) or Cameron resigned (9.20 ish), so you can guess how long they've sitting on that one.

The reason the EU is pressuring is because this is the one time they can't be seen as undemocratic, despite that being the only winning option on the table on the UK's end.
It's going to be fun - well, in terms of the game, not the people - to see how this plays out, but honestly I would expect a "Brundo" before throwing out the rulebook.
The real problem is how to sell it.

 

[SporeCrawler]

Merkel doesn't and she has the most power in the EU.

No. She has just one vote in the council

 

[30yearsofhurt]

The UK can move to Australia. Then we can all have fun together. Bring your gold.

Piss off. Don't want those immigrants in my country.

 

[jellies_two]

No. She has just one vote in the council

The council can't force anything, all they can do is talk
And she has the most authority.