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Werewolf |OT| Was it all just a Dream?
- Thread starter Palmer_v1
- Start date
Yeah, lynching both until we strike scum is dumb. I think exactly one of them is scum, though. Xam continues to act ridiculous so he's the clear front-runner.
Ultron, do you have an opinion on Xam? I don't remember you saying much.
Would scum Xam really behave like this? in my mind this means he must be completely ignoring the scum chat. Anyone who would be in communication with him would have stopped him from making about half the number of posts he's made because they're so dumb.
CrimsonFist
Member
I very much doubt that Xam is scum. All his posts read like a new player who maybe doesn't have the best handle on the game yet. That would basically explain all his behaviour, including his role claim; he saw Ultron do it so figured he should too.
Anyway, the post I said last night I was going to make today was going to be calling out GreatLord Tiger on that role claim and "reasons I'm not scum" part, but I see a few other people beat me to it.
I'm also not overly impressed by MattyG's contribution, I poked him until he posted his read list, and he did, fair enough, but it didn't really add much, which is just as much a fault of read lists in general in fairness, so I'd like to see him contribute a bit more.
Now to go back and see if I missed anything else.
Anyway, the post I said last night I was going to make today was going to be calling out GreatLord Tiger on that role claim and "reasons I'm not scum" part, but I see a few other people beat me to it.
I'm also not overly impressed by MattyG's contribution, I poked him until he posted his read list, and he did, fair enough, but it didn't really add much, which is just as much a fault of read lists in general in fairness, so I'd like to see him contribute a bit more.
Now to go back and see if I missed anything else.
Alright, lets try this again.
FluxWaveZ
As recently mentioned, I find myself frequently disagreeing with Flux. However looking through his posts they all seem quite genuine, so I don't think its a case of him intentionally selling bullshit. In fact he's been quick to share opinions on all issues that come up, and frequently asks probing questions when he sees something out of the ordinary. I wasn't sure before, but after re-reading his posts I'm leaning town on Flux.
Style
Another that I've been disagreeing with. Style's posts don't give me the such a good feeling even on second read though.
Day 1 was a mess, spent half the day saying "lol I dunno" and the second half defending himself. Activity rose but actual contributions remained low. Then there was that weird vote on Cabot that was apparently a mistake but never corrected.
Day 2 starts with role rishing on Dave and Makai. Also throws a lot of shade at Crimson for being the deputy (to me, it makes absolutely no sense for wolves to want deputy this early). Here he says that reads are hard, so he won't be trying - terrible reasoning, we can't expect scum to reveal themselves without effort on our part. The wording of this post also suggests he is more concerned with people suspecting him from his read list, rather than wanting to share ideas and actively route out scum.
Finally there is a vote on CzarTim. While I'm not hugely convinced by the logic in this post it is definitely drawing attention to a player that hasn't been in the spotlight much. I think this is the most proactive Style has been all game, and I'd like to see more.
For now though, I'm leaning scum. I'm not satisfied with Style's early contributions and I find some of his targets very suspect.
Makai
Makai really hasn't done much this game. He made that clumsy save on Dave (and to be fair I agree with his analysis that the Dave vote was about to take off), but apart from that there's almost nothing I can really read into...
I don't know who his current suspects are?
I don't know who he currently trusts?
I think Makai is town, but I need him to start providing reads and generally pulling his weight.
Of the people I haven't done yet, I think Xam, Boo and batsnacks stand out the most. I'm not expecting to get to them today though.
FluxWaveZ
As recently mentioned, I find myself frequently disagreeing with Flux. However looking through his posts they all seem quite genuine, so I don't think its a case of him intentionally selling bullshit. In fact he's been quick to share opinions on all issues that come up, and frequently asks probing questions when he sees something out of the ordinary. I wasn't sure before, but after re-reading his posts I'm leaning town on Flux.
Style
Another that I've been disagreeing with. Style's posts don't give me the such a good feeling even on second read though.
Day 1 was a mess, spent half the day saying "lol I dunno" and the second half defending himself. Activity rose but actual contributions remained low. Then there was that weird vote on Cabot that was apparently a mistake but never corrected.
Day 2 starts with role rishing on Dave and Makai. Also throws a lot of shade at Crimson for being the deputy (to me, it makes absolutely no sense for wolves to want deputy this early). Here he says that reads are hard, so he won't be trying - terrible reasoning, we can't expect scum to reveal themselves without effort on our part. The wording of this post also suggests he is more concerned with people suspecting him from his read list, rather than wanting to share ideas and actively route out scum.
Finally there is a vote on CzarTim. While I'm not hugely convinced by the logic in this post it is definitely drawing attention to a player that hasn't been in the spotlight much. I think this is the most proactive Style has been all game, and I'd like to see more.
For now though, I'm leaning scum. I'm not satisfied with Style's early contributions and I find some of his targets very suspect.
Makai
Makai really hasn't done much this game. He made that clumsy save on Dave (and to be fair I agree with his analysis that the Dave vote was about to take off), but apart from that there's almost nothing I can really read into...
I don't know who his current suspects are?
I don't know who he currently trusts?
I think Makai is town, but I need him to start providing reads and generally pulling his weight.
Of the people I haven't done yet, I think Xam, Boo and batsnacks stand out the most. I'm not expecting to get to them today though.
This question will look odd, but it might clear something up for me.
Lollipop Dave
Could you give me a quick agree/disagree/unsure for each of my reads so far? They are here, here and here, but for your convenience here's a quick summary:
Darryl - Town
CornBro - Scum
Cabot - Town
CzarTim - Town
Swamped - Town
kingkitty - Town
Ultron - Town
CrimsonFist - Town
Lollipop Dave - Town
Rats - Town*
ZippedPinhead - Scum
FluxWaveZ - Town
Style - Scum
Makai - Town
*This one was actually null, but you can't agree/disagree with that
Lollipop Dave
Could you give me a quick agree/disagree/unsure for each of my reads so far? They are here, here and here, but for your convenience here's a quick summary:
Darryl - Town
CornBro - Scum
Cabot - Town
CzarTim - Town
Swamped - Town
kingkitty - Town
Ultron - Town
CrimsonFist - Town
Lollipop Dave - Town
Rats - Town*
ZippedPinhead - Scum
FluxWaveZ - Town
Style - Scum
Makai - Town
*This one was actually null, but you can't agree/disagree with that
Hi, yeah. Sorry I didn't post at all yesterday. Was a crazy day at work with us finding out someone was flaking out and not actually doing anything and thus a project was way behind and ugh. Should be calmer today.
I was initially skeptical of his claim, since it was soooo easy to make and just say "hey, that's me too!" Thought he might be scum making a big gambit. With Terra's role reveal and the way Terra voted at the end of the day I don't think he's scum anymore. First, the odds of there being an actual scum sleepwalker and another scum claiming to be a sleepwalker feels like a pretty colossal risk to take. Because it gets us in the situation where, as we're seeing now, everyone is like "hey, that's a lot of sleepwalkers". And as has been mentioned before Terra seemed entirely unconcerned with which of us to vote out.
Xam could be a neutral sleepwalker who does some other thing to or has to visit like 7 people till he wins or whatever. Someone had pointed out that this game might have a theme of sleep and dreams due to the thread title. In that case it would make sense for there to be sleep related roles on each faction.
I was initially skeptical of his claim, since it was soooo easy to make and just say "hey, that's me too!" Thought he might be scum making a big gambit. With Terra's role reveal and the way Terra voted at the end of the day I don't think he's scum anymore. First, the odds of there being an actual scum sleepwalker and another scum claiming to be a sleepwalker feels like a pretty colossal risk to take. Because it gets us in the situation where, as we're seeing now, everyone is like "hey, that's a lot of sleepwalkers". And as has been mentioned before Terra seemed entirely unconcerned with which of us to vote out.
Xam could be a neutral sleepwalker who does some other thing to or has to visit like 7 people till he wins or whatever. Someone had pointed out that this game might have a theme of sleep and dreams due to the thread title. In that case it would make sense for there to be sleep related roles on each faction.
Xamtheking
Member
Funny, I think you're the neutral sleepwalker
CrimsonFist
Member
Ok, since it's come up a few times, how realistic do people actually think the idea of a neutral sleepwalker is?
It seems a very odd role to be in the game to me, since the sleepwalker would essentially have no control of their night actions, so them winning would be a good part down to luck.
It seems a very odd role to be in the game to me, since the sleepwalker would essentially have no control of their night actions, so them winning would be a good part down to luck.
Don't believe it.
Lollipop Dave
Member
Darryl - Town (Would have disagreed, I thought he was perhaps scum but I was wrong)
CornBro - Scum (Agree)
Cabot - Town (Disagree)
CzarTim - Town (Agree)
Swamped - Town (Disagree)
kingkitty - Town (Agree)
Ultron - Town (Unsure)
CrimsonFist - Town (Unsure, but leaning more towards town/neutral)
Rats - Town* [B}(Unsure but was leaning towards scum)[/B]
ZippedPinhead - Scum (Unsure)
FluxWaveZ - Town (Unsure)
Style - Scum (Disagree, I think he's neutral)
Makai - Town (Unsure)
Xamtheking
Member
I believe a neutral sleepwalker, like as suggested earlier, might also have a secondary role/power besides sleepwalking each night.
Or, perhaps, the neutrals know who they visit or learn the power of whoever they visit
On a purely meta-level it seems silly. I don't put much stock into the idea.
Zippedpinhead
Member
I'm not sure why you included Darryl or rats...
But Yes=agree, No=disagree, there is no unsure...
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
I think you are underestimating the total amount of people on the scum team/ night threats. This is a really big game, and only four scum out of those reads? I'. Putting the list more at 5-6. Truthfully, you are the only person I am unsure about my great and worthy opponent. You are playing very similarly to the last game we played together (and if I remember correctly you were scum and I read you right)
What would be their win condition though? If I were a neutral sleepwalker and my win condition was "Survive <x> nights" I would have mentioned that with my claim to increase my chances of survival.
Oh, and I haven't ignored this post. There's just a large number of people to get reads on. Summarizing 30 pages worth of werewolf ain't easy.
Bread makes you fat!
Interesting.
You've done absolutely nothing in your posts to hint at me not being town.
Xamtheking
Member
Maybe "every night randomly visit a person, you know the role the person has but not the identity of the person, on the third night you have the ability to kill a player, and if you successfully kill the player, you win" or something similar
CrimsonFist
Member
Your insistence that a neutral sleepwalker might actually be a thing is making me doubt you again.
A secondary power besides sleepwalking would not negate the randomness factor that I mentioned. I would not consider it good game design to have a win criteria based around something entirely chance based like that.
I'm not saying that a sleepwalker couldn't have a secondary power, you could have someone randomly killing people at night for example, I think there was someone with that role in Harry Potter, but they would more likely be town aligned.
A secondary power besides sleepwalking would not negate the randomness factor that I mentioned. I would not consider it good game design to have a win criteria based around something entirely chance based like that.
I'm not saying that a sleepwalker couldn't have a secondary power, you could have someone randomly killing people at night for example, I think there was someone with that role in Harry Potter, but they would more likely be town aligned.
Xamtheking
Member
I did some reading, and there is a variant of Sleepwalker that is Town-aligned that kills whoever he visits the third night onwards, so maybe that is what Ultron is?
CrimsonFist
Member
How do we want to handle the deputy issue too. Do we want to do a vote?
Yeah I think we either "accept" both are town for now and go on to discuss other stuff, or continue entertaining the possibility that one of them might be scum - neutral SW doesn't make sense to me. As someone already suggested yesterday, making the wrong call would mean whoever the fake sleepwalker is could continue doing the nk command every night and if he's found out he already has a role claim out there that justifies his night-doings. Sure, we'd probably lynch them right then and there, but damn would that feel silly. I still feel wary of Xam's multiple posts that talk about which role is and isn't in the game, when he's been told already talking about potential PRs is not particularly pro-town, but I'm willing to admit that might be just newbie talk.
We should also remember that Palmer has said there are no negative-utility roles in this game.
We should also remember that Palmer has said there are no negative-utility roles in this game.
I've actually read about a sleepwalker variation that also has a side ability as a Bulletproof Miller Vigilante.
This is a joke. Do not run with this.
I mean, it's still possible we have 3 SWs (or had, I guess): one scum, two town. I know we were making a big deal about "that's a lot of sleepwalkers", but it is a 29 person game.
Additionally, one of our sleepwalkers could have an additional power that they're not revealing. I don't think it's that unreasonable.
In regards to Xam. I don't think he's scum. I've moved on from that suspicion. He's very defensive, but I think that's in line with the amount of accusations on him.
Additionally, one of our sleepwalkers could have an additional power that they're not revealing. I don't think it's that unreasonable.
In regards to Xam. I don't think he's scum. I've moved on from that suspicion. He's very defensive, but I think that's in line with the amount of accusations on him.
You know, our win condition is to "eliminate all threats" so in my head I automatically assumed it meant that any 3P in this game were destructive. But of course, neutral survivors don't pose a threat to Village. So technically they could exist. I think our win condition is not indicative of what sort of 3p are in this game. There has to be at least 1 destructive power though, otherwise our win condition would have been "eliminate all wolves"
Sorry if this seemed obvious to everyone, just me thinking out loud.
I hope I didn't just give a neutral/wolf the perfect fake claim lol...
---
Crimson - regarding deputizing, just do whomever is at the top of your town list. Our if you're having trouble choosing, give us a short list of possible candidates and we can vote on them. At this early stage in the game i don't think it's worth the trouble of going through a full-fledged voting process.
Sorry if this seemed obvious to everyone, just me thinking out loud.
I hope I didn't just give a neutral/wolf the perfect fake claim lol...
---
Crimson - regarding deputizing, just do whomever is at the top of your town list. Our if you're having trouble choosing, give us a short list of possible candidates and we can vote on them. At this early stage in the game i don't think it's worth the trouble of going through a full-fledged voting process.
CrimsonFist
Member
Fair enough. I'll probably end up giving it to Cabot then, if there's no objections to that, although I'll wait until the last minute.
Just wondering, can you only user the "deputize" command once a day, or can you use it multiple times and only the last one counts?
CrimsonFist
Member
No idea.
Once a day.
Giant post incoming.
I keep going back to this post anyway, so I figured I'd just post the contents here.
Votes on Darryl at the end.
darryl (10)
cornburrito 364 (853)
batsnacks 663
czartim 719 (961)
starsketch 735 (754)
swamped 790
xamtheking 845 (923)
darryl 850 (907)
*splinter 884 (919)
ultron87 906 (943)
cabot 954
czartim 961
terrabyte20xx 965
cornburrito 971
drop 976
drop 976
xamtheking 978
fluxwavez 979
It's a lot to process, but check the post numbers. Gives you a good indicator of a what juncture people started voting Darry. He was acting weird all day, but only 30 or so minutes before it was between Xam and Ultron. But then Darryl did some crazy gambit. It looks like this:
Honestly, after reading it again in hindsight, he makes a really good point. But, of course, in the heat of the moment, people see this as weird ass behavior (it still is) and jump on the Darryl bandwagon to avoid having to decide between Xam and Ultron.
Before this happened, Darryl had already had 4 votes on him. They were:
cornburrito 364
batsnacks 663
czartim 719
swamped 790
After these few posts occurred, well, you can see the fallout in the first list I posted above. Xam was immediate to jump. First post Darryl makes, he jumps on him.
Then, Darryl makes his points and votes for himself, again, re-posting for clarity
Interesting to note here that the bandwagon doesn't immediately start. There's some back and forth about Darryl vs Xam vs Ultron (ultron is mostly passed on).
Here's an interesting post right in the thick of it.
That's TB, our confirmed wolf, voting for Xam, and claiming he's not confident in Darryl either. Maybe he knows the way the winds are blowing, who knows. He votes for Darryl later on, right in the middle of the giant bandwagon with like 20 minutes left. I'd make a case that TB wouldn't vote for Xam and Darryl if they were both scum so late in the day. Or you could interpret it as (if Xam is scum), bussing Xam, and then switching to Darryl once he sees where that is going.
A final interesting note, and I can't quot it all because it's like 5 or 6 posts, but check this page: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1145600&page=18
You'll notice Splinter talking a lot. You'll also notice Splinter voting a lot. I'm leaving out his big read list, which you can read here. But check out his voting pattern. This is all in like an hour.
From thinking Darryl is town to making it interesting by voting him. In the matter of a little more than an hour. Interesting.
But, of course, he changes it again.
Look who's part of the party:
It's worth noting, right before the Ultron bandwagon Xam was in the lead with 9 votes, and Darryl has 6. After the bandwagon, Ultron had 8, Xam had 6 and Darryl had 4. Then, Darryl (who has his vote on ultron), unvotes Ultron and votes...starsketch? Which, inevitably, leads to a 7-7 tie. Then, people get pissed at Darryl for forcing a tie and start voting for him because they are tired of his shit.
Of course, Terrabyte gets in on the action, too, as quoted above (I think?).
Then, Drop, in the most important post of the game so far, Double votes Darryl.
Which prompts the final couple votes for Darryl, enough to seal his fate. First it's Xam, then Flux.
So what can we make of this? Well, TB's voting pattern tells me he doesn't really care who gets killed out of Ultron, Xam or Darryl, just that one of them dies. Which leads me to believe that possibly all three are town (well, Darryl obviously was). What else? Well, Splinter has some weird posts and voting history in the final stretch. He jumped around an awful lot, voting for pretty much everyone up for contention, but ending up with a final vote for Ultron.
What else can it tell us? I'm not sure, but it sure was a clusterfuck.
Make of this what you will. It was good for me to review this and write it up, anyway.
I keep going back to this post anyway, so I figured I'd just post the contents here.
Votes on Darryl at the end.
darryl (10)
batsnacks 663
swamped 790
cabot 954
czartim 961
terrabyte20xx 965
cornburrito 971
drop 976
drop 976
xamtheking 978
fluxwavez 979
It's a lot to process, but check the post numbers. Gives you a good indicator of a what juncture people started voting Darry. He was acting weird all day, but only 30 or so minutes before it was between Xam and Ultron. But then Darryl did some crazy gambit. It looks like this:
Honestly, after reading it again in hindsight, he makes a really good point. But, of course, in the heat of the moment, people see this as weird ass behavior (it still is) and jump on the Darryl bandwagon to avoid having to decide between Xam and Ultron.
Before this happened, Darryl had already had 4 votes on him. They were:
cornburrito 364
batsnacks 663
czartim 719
swamped 790
After these few posts occurred, well, you can see the fallout in the first list I posted above. Xam was immediate to jump. First post Darryl makes, he jumps on him.
I don't think that's suspicious, but it's worth noting.
Then, Darryl makes his points and votes for himself, again, re-posting for clarity
Interesting to note here that the bandwagon doesn't immediately start. There's some back and forth about Darryl vs Xam vs Ultron (ultron is mostly passed on).
Here's an interesting post right in the thick of it.
That's TB, our confirmed wolf, voting for Xam, and claiming he's not confident in Darryl either. Maybe he knows the way the winds are blowing, who knows. He votes for Darryl later on, right in the middle of the giant bandwagon with like 20 minutes left. I'd make a case that TB wouldn't vote for Xam and Darryl if they were both scum so late in the day. Or you could interpret it as (if Xam is scum), bussing Xam, and then switching to Darryl once he sees where that is going.
A final interesting note, and I can't quot it all because it's like 5 or 6 posts, but check this page: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1145600&page=18
You'll notice Splinter talking a lot. You'll also notice Splinter voting a lot. I'm leaving out his big read list, which you can read here. But check out his voting pattern. This is all in like an hour.
From thinking Darryl is town to making it interesting by voting him. In the matter of a little more than an hour. Interesting.
But, of course, he changes it again.
At this point, Ultron gets a lot of votes again. He chimes in to vote for Darryl.
Bunch of people bandwagon on him in like 5 minutes.
Look who's part of the party:
It's worth noting, right before the Ultron bandwagon Xam was in the lead with 9 votes, and Darryl has 6. After the bandwagon, Ultron had 8, Xam had 6 and Darryl had 4. Then, Darryl (who has his vote on ultron), unvotes Ultron and votes...starsketch? Which, inevitably, leads to a 7-7 tie. Then, people get pissed at Darryl for forcing a tie and start voting for him because they are tired of his shit.
Lol, funny in hindsight.
Of course, Terrabyte gets in on the action, too, as quoted above (I think?).
Then, Drop, in the most important post of the game so far, Double votes Darryl.
Which prompts the final couple votes for Darryl, enough to seal his fate. First it's Xam, then Flux.
So what can we make of this? Well, TB's voting pattern tells me he doesn't really care who gets killed out of Ultron, Xam or Darryl, just that one of them dies. Which leads me to believe that possibly all three are town (well, Darryl obviously was). What else? Well, Splinter has some weird posts and voting history in the final stretch. He jumped around an awful lot, voting for pretty much everyone up for contention, but ending up with a final vote for Ultron.
What else can it tell us? I'm not sure, but it sure was a clusterfuck.
Make of this what you will. It was good for me to review this and write it up, anyway.
I do plan on talking about this more but I will say everyone should remember Terra's PM. If a wolf dies, he becomes a normal wolf with killing powers.
Bussing D1 is a bit brash for sure, but it would be a nice easy way to win some town favour (especially since a few people were singling out Terra yesterday) and also allow him to become a full member of the wolves.
For this reason, I'm not completely discounting who TB voted for at the end of the day.
Bussing D1 is a bit brash for sure, but it would be a nice easy way to win some town favour (especially since a few people were singling out Terra yesterday) and also allow him to become a full member of the wolves.
For this reason, I'm not completely discounting who TB voted for at the end of the day.
Re: Darryl v Xam
I still felt Darryl was town, but I thought Xam was too. I wasn't sure what to do there so I voted Darryl to bring the vote closer just to see what would happen. Literally to "make things interesting".
Later I voted Ultron, this was another choice I wasn't super keen on but I thought voting for anyone else would gain no traction and therefore be wasted. Another reason I chose Ultron was he wasn't a (useful) PR and I didn't want to last-minute swing the vote onto a doctor or something. He was a relatively risk free option and has been, to some extent, cleared by the votes that followed (TB).
I still felt Darryl was town, but I thought Xam was too. I wasn't sure what to do there so I voted Darryl to bring the vote closer just to see what would happen. Literally to "make things interesting".
Later I voted Ultron, this was another choice I wasn't super keen on but I thought voting for anyone else would gain no traction and therefore be wasted. Another reason I chose Ultron was he wasn't a (useful) PR and I didn't want to last-minute swing the vote onto a doctor or something. He was a relatively risk free option and has been, to some extent, cleared by the votes that followed (TB).
CornBurrito
Member
So I am still a scum read despite your reasoning for that being based on complete falsehoods?
I do believe that Splinter's vote on Darryl was to 'make things interesting'.
In a previous game when I was scum and Splinter was town, I actually killed Splinter because of his voting unpredictability, especially during the last part of a day phase.
Those last minute vote changes can yield some pretty useful information, but only if one of the vote forerunners is scum. If not, then scum reacts pretty apathetically to the situation, as Terra demonstrated at the end of D1.
I'm still leaning town on Splinter.
In a previous game when I was scum and Splinter was town, I actually killed Splinter because of his voting unpredictability, especially during the last part of a day phase.
Those last minute vote changes can yield some pretty useful information, but only if one of the vote forerunners is scum. If not, then scum reacts pretty apathetically to the situation, as Terra demonstrated at the end of D1.
I'm still leaning town on Splinter.
Sure, why not, you were scum before that mistake, and you exaggerating that whole situation into "complete falsehoods" doesn't fill me with good-feels either
CornBurrito
Member
Will remove my vote from Time when I get a chance.
CrimsonFist
Member
Less than 24 hours at least
Rats Off To Ya
Banned
Yeah, I remember Town Splinter engaging in some erratic voting in the Gafia game. Not much of a scumtell, in his particular case.
CornBurrito
Member
UNVOTE
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