Will the iPod crush the PSP? (23.5 Million iPods expected by 2006)

How important is the multifunctionality to the success of the PSP?

In the past 12 months, the iPod has experience sales growth that is incredible and has cemented iself as THE portable music player. Has Sony missed the boat? Is the PSP coming too late to cause much of a stir with it's MP3 capability, or is it minimally important to the PSP's sucess?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=ayuJ_AtnPApo&refer=japan

http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/index.cfm?NewsID=10252&Page=1&pagePos=1

Apple Deepens Sony's Woes as `Cute' iPod Takes Off in Japan

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Juliana Sasaki didn't bother checking out Sony Corp.'s digital music player in Tokyo before buying her green iPod mini.

``I knew Sony and other companies had MP3 players, but they can't beat the mini,'' says Sasaki, 23, a language teacher. ``I went straight to the Apple store. The mini is so cute.''

In Japan, home to four of the five top electronics companies by sales, advance orders made Apple Computer Inc.'s iPod mini the top-selling portable player three weeks before its July 24 release. It still is.

Tokyo-based Sony Corp.'s embarrassment at Apple's hands is another setback for the company that in 1979 invented the world's first portable music player, the Walkman. Sony's profit from consumer electronics has fallen in five of the past six years as Sharp Corp. and Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. grabbed the digital initiative with flat-screen televisions and DVD players.

...

Sony Chief Financial Officer Katsumi Ihara lamented Apple's jump on the company in a September interview.

``Our personal audio business isn't performing to our expectations -- partly because of iPod, which has become a fashion,'' Ihara said. ``We must avoid having Apple take over our image in the personal audio category. We must fight back.''

EXCLUSIVE: 'iPod sales hit 23.5 million by 2006' - analyst

By Jonny Evans

A leading Wall Street analyst expects 100 million Windows users to own iPods by 2008.

In a 27-page note released to clients, Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf revealed that, when such critical mass is achieved, "Mac sales could surge if only a nominal fraction of this group make a purchase."

While Apple has remained tight-lipped concerning claims that it intends releasing a flash-based iPod, Wolf says: "Although we expect hard drive players to capture an increasing share of the portable music player market, flash players should dominate the market through 2006."
...

Conservative assessments

Wolf's analysis and raised target price are not dependent on an iPod halo effect, nor on Apple maintaining an 80 per cent share in the hard drive-based music player market and 70 per cent of the music download market. Nor does it depend on any future iPod flash product release.

Wolf also describes Apple's online and brick-&-mortar retail stores as "the unsung heroes of the Apple story".

In fact, Wolf's account relies on the assumption that a truly competitive product will debut on the market, and that Apple's share will slide to 60 per cent. He predicts that Apple will be able to compete with that future challenge on price, because it will be able to benefit from economies of scale, attracting lower production costs than competitors can access, due to iPod's massive sales volume.

PC installation on the rise

Wolf estimates that the installed base of personal computers could reach 1.3 billion by 2010. And he believes that, since a PC is required to use an iPod or other music player, such continued consumer take-up will propel sales.

"Our analysis indicates that the installed base of portable music players could approach 500 million by 2010, equivalent to a 7 per cent penetration rate of the worlds population."

The Microsoft choice 'ignores reality'

Microsoft argues that consumers want choice in their online music purchases, and will eventually favour non-Apple devices. Wolf declares that the Redmond company's assessment, "ignores reality".

Wolf does not believe music lovers care about music formats when they buy songs, and that most songs are ripped from CDs or downloaded elsewhere. He argues that consumers don't care which online service they use, as long as it has what they want and is compatible with their device, and adds that content will not drive a single standard service to emerge, as music content will be identically-available on multiple services.

"There are no compelling economic reasons why Microsoft’s Windows Media Audio music software platform should end up dominating this market just because it’s been adopted by a host of online music stores and music players", he writes.

"In our opinion, the only way Windows Media could emerge as the dominant platform is if Apple stops innovating its iTunes software and the iPod," he states.

Simply the best

"We’re forecasting iPod sales of 23.5 million units in 2006," Wolf adds.
 
The iPod has 3 to 5 times the battery life and includes a 20-60GB HDD while the PSP will be lucky to get a 2GB Memory Stick for all the same price.

Trust me, I prefer my iPod to any gaming device that's confused about it's prime directive.

Wolf does not believe music lovers care about music formats when they buy songs, and that most songs are ripped from CDs or downloaded elsewhere.
The iPod would have failed if it didn't support mp3s. P2P, whether you use it or not, is the main driving force behind it.

Of course, right now my iPod is playing a song I got off of iTunes.
 
What's the relationship between an hard disk based MP3 player and a handheld console like the PSP?
PSP is a gaming console that allows to do other things but a person interested only in portable music won't certainly prefer the PSP over the Ipod.
It's Sony's portable music division that has to fight with Ipod creating new appealing products not SCE.
 
Oh, and my stance on the mini is that it's for ignorant women and people who don't care about wasting money. $50 gets you 5 times the space for rougly the same size device. (YES, they are DAMN close. If you don't believe me, go to Target and look at the pamphlets!)

Edit:
Another note:
People aren't buying the iPod because of Music Quiz, Solitare and the useless junk. They buy it because it has style and plays music like nothing else.
 
naz said:
When I want a spoon I don't reach for a Swiss Army Knife... So I do not understand why we would even compare PSP to iPod

I think the comparisions come from Sony themselves... They said something about PSP being the "walkman of this generation" or something like that... And I recall them saying they were going to use the PSP to try and take on iPod, that was another reason why they priced it so low, not just Nintendo...
 
M3wThr33 said:
Oh, and my stance on the mini is that it's for ignorant women and people who don't care about wasting money. $50 gets you 5 times the space for rougly the same size device. (YES, they are DAMN close. If you don't believe me, go to Target and look at the pamphlets!)

but... is it (#^-^#) CUTE? >_<
 
PSP is not gonna replace ipod that's for sure. But it's multifunction is great when there are time you just don't feel like stuffing your pants/bag with 3 or 4 gadgets.
 
jiggle said:
PSP is not gonna replace ipod that's for sure. But it's multifunction is great when there are time you just don't feel like stuffing your pants/bag with 3 or 4 gadgets.
I'm a sad, sad man
Carrying around an iPod on my belt clip, a digital camera watch, a camera cellphone, and a palm Zire 71. :( And now sometimes I include a DS.
 
If Sony's going to take on the iPod, they're most certainly not going to use the PSP to do it. They need a dedicated player, one that can hold more than an iPod, go longer than an iPod, and have *true* mp3 compatibility.

It also needs to be easy enough for your theoretical grandmother, and cheaper too.
 
Sony's PSP = money stupidly spent because ipod and Nintendo's DS will be in full stride. If their not careful the PS3 will be the next to fall....
 
If you are buying a music device you buy an iPod or something comparible.

If you are buying a handheld gaming device you buy a PSP, DS or GBA.

What about that is hard to comprehend?
 
WULFER said:
Sony's PSP = money stupidly spent because ipod and Nintendo's DS will be in full stride. If their not careful the PS3 will be the next to fall....

hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha


hahahahahahahahahahah

:lol :lol

Ohhohohhahahahaha

*my gut oh jesus christ*

hahahah
 
jiggle said:
PSP is not gonna replace ipod that's for sure. But it's multifunction is great when there are time you just don't feel like stuffing your pants/bag with 3 or 4 gadgets.

Wow someone with a tad of sense.
 
xsarien said:
If Sony's going to take on the iPod, they're most certainly not going to use the PSP to do it. They need a dedicated player, one that can hold more than an iPod, go longer than an iPod, and have *true* mp3 compatibility.


I agree. I really don't see the PSP, iPod comparison. Some phones can play mp3s, does that make them in competition with the iPod as well?

If Sony wants to compete with the iPod, then that competition will have to come from the Walkman side of the building, not the Playstation division. Actually, if someone came out with a cheaper version of the iPod that played .wma files as well, I would jump on board.
 
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I don't think the music playing capabilities are going to be that big of a deal with PSP. Movies and games are obviously the big draw.

I could be wrong on that, but in terms of rationalizing the purchase, I would imagine most people are much more interested in PSP for all the visual playback than music. Really, who here used their Playstations as CD players?
 
I have preordered the PSP for the Japanese launch. With that said, I can't see how a claim for this device to be a competitor to any audio media player. The storage space is too small. I will also never use this for movies as well. I have an Archos av480. It is 80GB and I can encode to Divx plus have my WMAs on there. I won't be limited by the UMD format and I don't want to put more stress on that laser than I need to.
 
I think PSP and iPod might be in competition on some theoretical level (after all, they are both courting dollars from consumers who are looking for portable entertainment), but I think Sony just shot itself in the foot among 50 or so Internet fanboys worldwide by calling the PSP the next Walkman. Otherwise, I don't think that dumb statement from Sony will negatively influence its future in the portable gaming market.
 
Laugh all you want Sony's game side is focusing on 3 platforms. Nintendo on 2 and MS on two (or one). Sony just bought MGM studios no small price there and their still having to shell out cash for PS3 development. Sony's done the right thing most of the time but, in this industry things don't always fall your way all the time. Also, their banking their future on these UMD disks and Blue-Ray and I did even speak of those costs. So lets not laugh until the players actually show up for the game.
 
Elios83 said:
What's the relationship between an hard disk based MP3 player and a handheld console like the PSP?
PSP is a gaming console that allows to do other things but a person interested only in portable music won't certainly prefer the PSP over the Ipod.
It's Sony's portable music division that has to fight with Ipod creating new appealing products not SCE.
So true! iPod has nothing to do with the PSP.
The PSP is a gaming-handheld with extra features!
iPod? WTF?!
 
Asxider, I did not say Sony would fail. I said Sony better focus more on their PS3 if they want to keep their leader position. Some of you guys can't read between the lines. Can you read?
 
WULFER said:
Asxider, I did not say Sony would fail. I said Sony better focus more on their PS3 if they want to keep their leader position. Some of you guys can't read between the lines. Can you read?

You have the best tag EVER.
 
Hey gotta live up to it don't I. After all I didn't ask for it and this is just the internet and it doesn't mean a thing. :D
 
WULFER said:
Asxider, I did not say Sony would fail. I said Sony better focus more on their PS3 if they want to keep their leader position. Some of you guys can't read between the lines. Can you read?

Sorry but what do you know about Sony's focus on PS3?Do you know how they split the work internally,what their resources are?
 
PSP will have outsold the iPod by late 2006/early 2007. ~10 million units from now till 1/1/06; 10+ million from 1/1/06 till Christmas of that year.
 
heh heh. I love analysts reports. "Hey guys, you know that hockey stick sales curve we promised was coming this year? Well its definitely coming next year. Promise. Buy our new $1500 report and find out why"

Bunch of wiseguys most of them.

100 million iPods by 2008. I can see the graph now. Gentle slope for the next 18 months representing the current sales growth , then an impossible to acheive almost vertical line until 2008.

Apple better start building some new factories and hope the fad doesn't pass.

The reason the Japanese like the mini is because its mini (and silly colours for the girls). The normal iPod is too big generally for the Asia Pacific market - they don't see the need to hold *all* their music, so just want a small player. When Apple do their flash players, they might be more successful over there.
 
ipod mini cost's 250 euro and the bigger models 350euro + i can't understand people who are wiling to spend so much money on an mp3 player
 
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I bought an iPod mini a few weeks back and I haven't looked back. And yes, I said "Goodbye" to my MD player I'd been using for a couple of years up to that point.
 
Of course the Ipod will crush the PSP. It's going to go something like this. GBA>>>>>>>NDS>>>>>>IPOD>>>PSP.
 
Why do you keep comparing oranges with apples?!?

Does my Palm crushed my PowerBook?
Does my cellphone crushed my watch?
Does my magnifying glass crushed my telescope?
Will my iPod crush my need for PSP or NDS?
 
If you're comparing sales, the PSP will outsell the iPod by 2007 UNLESS it fails. Just figure Sony's production figures. They'll want to make that many units (20+M) in a single year. The iPod and other expensive gadgets like that can't hope to compete directly with a GBA, DS or PSP type of device. Gaming devices just sell much larger volumes. But as has been pointed out too many times now, they aren't comparable. The PSP will be compared to the DS. It may play MP3s, but that's an auxillary function. Why do people say it's confused? It's a game device FIRST, that's why the fancy screen. Everything else after that is secondary. You're not gonna pay $150-180 for a crippled MP3 player, are you? If Sony wanted to attack Apple, they'd probably try to push out a RW UMD format that would make the PSP actually *gasp* practical for music. They'd probably try and whore out their catalog of music on the format too.

BTW, the iPod itself is a device that may fall under the weight of the market it has created. The portable MP3 market is so crowded already, that there's gonna be a big fight just to get to those numbers projected. I think Sony's targetting the more profitable market for now. PEACE.
 
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