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Wkd BO 02•17-19•17 - Americans say no to The Wall on Presidents' Day Weekend

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M

MHWilliams

Member
Discotheque said:
can't really infer that from the results, unless it's just personal opinion of course. just at a quick glance I'm liking the 2000s much more than the 10's for big money movies. more successful spread of box office results tho for sure.
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Can't directly infer, but either Hollywood is making better films, or people are more willing to go see more films.

You can surmise a number of reasons for that, but Occam's Razor is simply that Hollywood has gotten much better at making films the audience wants to see. You can quibble over the subjective quality, but that's not really my point. It's a product, Hollywood is better at making that product sellable.
 
B

broncobuster

Banned
I think Hollywood has gotten better at making blockbusters that appeal a little bit to everyone rather than a lot to anyone. Anecdotal and all but there are few recent blockbusters that seem to have left a mark. At the end of the day it's better business, I suppose. Part of it may be how many blockbusters feel like pastiches of older works
 
K

kswiston

Member
igordennis said:
Goddamn we dont even deserve kswis.
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I do a lot of those long posts to satisfy my own curiosity. I'm glad some people find the end result interesting. Sometimes I feel like I turn these threads into my Box Office Blog.



Back on topic, it looks like Hidden Figures is heading for a finish around the $175M range. I think that it's worth putting into perspective how amazing that run has been.

Here are the "based on a true story" films since 2000 that have hit $175M

American Sniper (2014): $350,126,372
The Blind Side (2009): $255,959,475
Lincoln (2012): $182,207,973

If you want to include films (loosely) based on US history, I guess you could throw in Pearl Harbor in 2001 ($198,542,554).

Fox would have no doubt been more than happy with half the domestic take that Hidden Figures is heading towards.
 
K

kswiston

Member
We will get Resident Evil 6 numbers from China tomorrow Morning. Based on presales, RE6's opening day in China has a decent shot at passing its domestic total (currently $26.3M)


Sinsem said:
So no chance at all of passing Lincoln?

Also, while i'm at it, where does JW2 looks to finish?
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There's definitely a chance. Perhaps even a good one, if the March blockbusters don't completely destroy its venue count in the next few weeks.

Hidden Figures is about $8M ahead of Lincoln if you ignore the limited release weekends:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=hidfigures.htm


I'm going to guess ~$90M for John Wick 2. This weekend's hold should be decent (-45%?), pushing the film to around $75M. However, I think that Logan dropping next weekend is going to hurt. A slow crawl to $100M domestic might have been in the cards if we didn't have a $75M+ opener with an almost perfect demographic overlap happening in weekend #4.
 
S

Schlorgan

Member
4-Day Actuals:

DIiodBr.png
 
K

kswiston

Member
Resident Evil 6 opened to 209M RMB / $30.4M USD (not counting service fees) on its first day in China.

That beats Civil War's opening day, and is the third biggest opening day for a Hollywood film in China. It's a distant third though, as Furious 7 opened to 399M RMB and Warcraft 302M RMB.

Still, this sort of opening day is going to lead to well over $100M in China, even if the film has limited legs.


In domestic news, Get Out made $1.8M from Thursday previews and is expected to easily top $20M this weekend.
 
R

Razgriz-Specter

Member
kswiston said:
Resident Evil 6 opened to 209M RMB / $30.4M USD (not counting service fees) on its first day in China.

That beats Civil War's opening day, and is the third biggest opening day for a Hollywood film in China. It's a distant third though, as Furious 7 opened to 399M RMB and Warcraft 302M RMB.

Still sort of opening day is going to lead to well over $100M in China, even if the film has limited legs.


In domestic news, Get Out made $1.8M from Thursday previews and is expected to easily top $20M this weekend.
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Hilarious, so Afterlife(4) did well.
Retribution(5) gets a known Chinese actress and does less.
6 cut the Chinese actress and it does way better.
 
K

kswiston

Member
milanbaros said:
Kswis- do you have comparable country box office totals for 2016? How close is China to overtaking the US?
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China had major slowdown last year. Total box office was up 3.7% and admissions up 8.9%

2016 Chinese Box Office: 45.71B Yuan
2016 total admissions: 1.372B

The exchange rate fluctuated throughout the year. 45.71B RMB is $6.65B USD currently, but the exchange was a little better earlier in the year, I believe.


Estimated 2016 US admissions were 1.31B according to BOM. I don't know how accurate that is. Total box office was $11.38B
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
The word of mouth on Get Out looks to be heading sky-fucking-high. I don't know what the projection was, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes north of that by the time Monday rolls around.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
The word of mouth on Get Out looks to be heading sky-fucking-high. I don't know what the projection was, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes north of that by the time Monday rolls around.
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I think it's topping $30M. The preview number is about the same as Don't Breathe and that went on to a $26M, but that was released in August so Don't Breathe should do better. For instance, Split turned $2M previews into a $40M OW.

Sunday will take a bit of a hit with the Oscars, but it shouldn't be bad based on the last few years.
 
J

jmdajr

Member
kswiston said:
Resident Evil 6 opened to 209M RMB / $30.4M USD (not counting service fees) on its first day in China.

That beats Civil War's opening day, and is the third biggest opening day for a Hollywood film in China. It's a distant third though, as Furious 7 opened to 399M RMB and Warcraft 302M RMB.

Still sort of opening day is going to lead to well over $100M in China, even if the film has limited legs.


In domestic news, Get Out made $1.8M from Thursday previews and is expected to easily top $20M this weekend.
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Woah
 
K

kswiston

Member
Deadline is saying $10-10.5M for Get Out on Friday. They also have Lego Batman at $4M, 50 Shades Darker at $3.3M, John Wick 2 at $2.2M, Rock Dog at $1.4M, and Collide at $750k.
 
T

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
So April Reign, the person responsible for the OscarsSoWhite hashtag in the first place, said that she's going to live tweet the awards this year.

It's going to get real awkward real quickly when La La Land starts to clean house.
 
K

kswiston

Member
twinturbo2 said:
So April Reign, the person responsible for the OscarsSoWhite hashtag in the first place, said that she's going to live tweet the awards this year.

It's going to get real awkward real quickly when La La Land starts to clean house.
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I doubt it. 2-3 of the acting awards are going to go to black actors. Moonlight will probably win adapted screenplay. I haven't really been following the editing and cinematography races, so I don't know who are favoured for those. La La Land has won all the major awards for director and producer/film, so I'm not sure why winning the Oscar in those two categories would be a surprise at this point. Emma Stone is favoured for best actress, but Ruth Negga is near the bottom of that race (either her or Streep would be considered the least likely to win), so I doubt that would be contentious either.
 
K

kswiston

Member
mreddie said:
I get a dreading feeling La La Land and By the Sea will upset.
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Upset what though? Can you upset if you are the frontrunner? La La Land has nothing in the supporting actor categories, and Gosling isn't going to win, so those are safe. If Manchester takes anything, it would be Lead Actor (where Casey Affleck has been the favourite for most of the campaign season), and maybe best original screenplay (where it is competing against La La Land).

Adapted Screenplay is the stronger race this year, but the films I could see winning that are Moonlight and Fences. MAYBE Lion as a dark horse entry. The other two competitors are Arrival and Hidden Figures.
 
M

mreddie

Member
kswiston said:
Upset what though? Can you upset if you are the frontrunner? La La Land has nothing in the supporting actor categories, and Gosling isn't going to win, so those are safe. If Manchester takes anything, it would be Lead Actor (where Casey Affleck has been the favourite for most of the campaign season), and maybe best original screenplay (where it is competing against La La Land).
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It still be whiter than a vanilla Frosty.
 
K

kswiston

Member
mreddie said:
It still be whiter than a vanilla Frosty.
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Not compared to every other year in Oscar history.

Black artists winning supporting actor, supporting actress, adapted screenplay, and documentary feature are all close to locked. Denzel has a decent chance at Best Actor after his SAG win.
 
T

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
kswiston said:
I doubt it. 2-3 of the acting awards are going to go to black actors. Moonlight will probably win adapted screenplay. I haven't really been following the editing and cinematography races, so I don't know who are favoured for those. La La Land has won all the major awards for director and producer/film, so I'm not sure why winning the Oscar in those two categories would be a surprise at this point. Emma Stone is favoured for best actress, but Ruth Negga is near the bottom of that race (either her or Streep would be considered the least likely to win), so I doubt that would be contentious either.
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I think La La Land is going to win at least ten Oscars. Gosling has no chance in hell for Best Actor, and Original Song and Original Screenplay are toss ups, but it's going to win all of the other technical awards, Actress, Director and Picture. There's a good chance it might break the record for most awarded film in Oscars history.

As bad as the hot takes over Beyoncé losing to Adele at the Grammys this year were, this might be even worse, even though April Reign said on multiple occasions that this was never just about awards. In NASCAR terms, La La Land is like Jimmie Johnson- wins everything, loved by some, hated by a bunch of loudmouths.
 
S

starmud

Member
Sucks about a cure for wellness, I found in my theater many came in completely clueless to what the movie was about but many seemed to leave impressed.

If your a fan of horror/thrillers, it's a movie you'll find memberable even for its mistakes.
 
K

kswiston

Member
twinturbo2 said:
I think La La Land is going to win at least ten Oscars. Gosling has no chance in hell for Best Actor, and Original Song and Original Screenplay are toss ups, but it's going to win all of the other technical awards, Actress, Director and Picture. There's a good chance it might break the record for most awarded film in Oscars history.

As bad as the hot takes over Beyoncé losing to Adele at the Grammys this year were, this might be even worse, even though April Reign said on multiple occasions that this was never just about awards. In NASCAR terms, La La Land is like Jimmie Johnson- wins everything, loved by some, hated by a bunch of loudmouths.
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If we agree that Best Actor is out of the question, La La Land would have to win every other category it is nominated for to set a new record. It could lose one additional category and tie the record. The film has 14 nominations, but two are in the same Original Song category. The record is 11 wins.
 
T

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
kswiston said:
If we agree that Best Actor is out of the question, La La Land would have to win every other category it is nominated for to set a new record. It could lose one additional category and tie the record. The film has 14 nominations, but two are in the same Original Song category. The record is 11 wins.
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Yeah, I'm aware of that. It'll come down to how bad the vote splitting is in Orignal Song.

La La Land went 7 for 7 at the Golden Globes. It happened once already.
 
T

thehypocrite

Member
twinturbo2 said:
I think La La Land is going to win at least ten Oscars. Gosling has no chance in hell for Best Actor, and Original Song and Original Screenplay are toss ups, but it's going to win all of the other technical awards, Actress, Director and Picture. There's a good chance it might break the record for most awarded film in Oscars history.

As bad as the hot takes over Beyoncé losing to Adele at the Grammys this year were, this might be even worse, even though April Reign said on multiple occasions that this was never just about awards. In NASCAR terms, La La Land is like Jimmie Johnson- wins everything, loved by some, hated by a bunch of loudmouths.
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Overcompensating for snubbing whiplash.
 
M

MHWilliams

Member
twinturbo2 said:
I think La La Land is going to win at least ten Oscars. Gosling has no chance in hell for Best Actor, and Original Song and Original Screenplay are toss ups, but it's going to win all of the other technical awards, Actress, Director and Picture. There's a good chance it might break the record for most awarded film in Oscars history.

As bad as the hot takes over Beyoncé losing to Adele at the Grammys this year were, this might be even worse, even though April Reign said on multiple occasions that this was never just about awards. In NASCAR terms, La La Land is like Jimmie Johnson- wins everything, loved by some, hated by a bunch of loudmouths.
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Great film, but it certainly doesn't deserve to sweep by any means.

If it does, we're looking at The Artist again, with Hollywood loving on Hollywood.
 
M

milanbaros

Member?
kswiston said:
China had major slowdown last year. Total box office was up 3.7% and admissions up 8.9%

2016 Chinese Box Office: 45.71B Yuan
2016 total admissions: 1.372B

The exchange rate fluctuated throughout the year. 45.71B RMB is $6.65B USD currently, but the exchange was a little better earlier in the year, I believe.


Estimated 2016 US admissions were 1.31B according to BOM. I don't know how accurate that is. Total box office was $11.38B
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Interesting, thanks. Any sign it is opicking up this year? I suspect it might be down based on the blockbuster Q1 2016.
 
T

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
MHWilliams said:
Great film, but it certainly doesn't deserve to sweep by any means.

If it does, we're looking at The Artist again, with Hollywood loving on Hollywood.
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Never underestimate the power of Hollywood loving on themselves. Whether the new membership can change that is an open question.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter is up to $68M ($63.4M without service fees lumped in) after 2 days in China. It's going to end up with an opening weekend of over $90M.


Get Out's official Friday estimate is $10.8M. Slayven's 2017 animated film of the year, Rock Dog, opened to a bit less than $1M on its first day. Collide opened to $500k.
 
S

Slayven

Member
kswiston said:
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter is up to $68M ($63.4M without service fees lumped in) after 2 days in China. It's going to end up with an opening weekend of over $90M.


Get Out's official Friday estimate is $10.8M. Slayven's 2017 animated film of the year, Rock Dog, opened to a bit less than $1M on its first day. Collide opened to $500k.
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