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Wkd BO 05•05-07•17 - Baby Groot & fam show IRL Groot & fam who's Boss

kswiston

Member
1Now that theater counts are out, in lieu of a long rundown like I did last week, I thought I'd make a top 10 predictions with just a few notes

Code:
1.  Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2    $64.4M   -56.0%
2.  Snatched                         $20.7M
3.  King Arthur                      $20.0M
4.  Fate of the Furious               $4.9M   -42.8%
5.  Boss Baby                         $4.2M   -29.6%
6.  Beauty and the Beast              $4.1M   -19.4%
7.  How to be a Latin Lover           $3.3M   -35.8%
8.  Baahubali 2: The Conclusion       $2.0M   -41.0%
9.  The Circle                        $1.6M   -57.1%
10. The Wall                          $1.5M

  • I'm giving Guardians 2 a slightly better drop than other Marvel films with the same release. It had a bigger Sunday decline than Iron Man 3 or Civil War or Age of Ultron, which is an indication that the Friday increase could be better.
  • Snatched is currently ahead of King Arthur on movietickets.com 13% to 7%, which pretty much excludes any possibility of the latter breaking out (shocker!). In the end, I expect Mother's Day to give the edge to Snatched over the weekend.
  • With no $140M+ opener this weekend, most films should experience significantly better declines than last week, the sole exception being The Circle, which will have the largest theater count decline (-1,031). Beauty and the Beast will likely benefit the most from Mother's Day, and I'm anticipating a rare increase on Sunday.
  • The Wall, releasing in 541 theaters, is a total wildcard. The youtube trailer views are pretty high, so I wouldn't be surprised if I'm relatively quite wrong here, but Amazon Studios has yet to have a release open over $1.2M.

Beauty and the Beast will make out well on Mothers day. I'm sure that factored into the drop you are predicting.

I wonder if Baahubali continues to fade faster than typical though. Seeing as it is largely catering to a specific market.
 
GOTG2 to have the lowest increase for an MCU sequel?
IM2 fell 1.9% from the first, and Age of Ultron had a 26.4% fall. The other first sequels got that massive post-Avengers bump, so they aren't really that comparable.

Beauty and the Beast will make out well on Mothers day. I'm sure that factored into the drop you are predicting.

I wonder if Baahubali continues to fade faster than typical though. Seeing as it is largely catering to a specific market.
Absolutely re: Beauty and the Beast. I looked at last year and how Jungle Book dropped only 2%; I feel like there's a possibility Beast could play like the Abrams Trek films on Father's Day, which increased 15% and 20% respectively.

Baahubali 2 could fall a lot more than I'm predicting. Dhoom 3 and Dangal did, but were skewed by a December release, while the first Baahubali didn't even play for a third weekend.
 

kswiston

Member
And gave George Miller $150mil to blow up cars up the desert. Warners craziness is great from time to time.

And they'll give the Wachowski sisters another $200mil to make a weird sci-if movie.

I think that Jupiter Ascending was that film. If they want another $200M budget, they will have to direct Cyborg or something.
 

Lima

Member
Parked my ass in the theater. They are playing King Arthur on the biggest screen. 984 seats and only 4 people including me in here while the trailers are rolling lol.
 
Parked my ass in the theater. They are playing King Arthur on the biggest screen. 984 seats and only 4 people including me in here while the trailers are rolling lol.

I love it when you can lay across multiple seats in the theater and watch it like you're on your couch at home.
 
Warner is way into the risky shit for some reason
They've been desperately looking for new franchises since Harry Potter ended, which is why they wanted this to be a 6 film series (lol). That said, this project makes a lot less sense to me. The biggest film in recent history that's remotely like it is Ridley Scott's Robin Hood, and that was considered a big budget disappointment.
 

Lima

Member
So King Arthur huh. What a mess. The opening with giant war elephants is cool. Reminded me of LOTR. Then we get weird sped up footage of Arthur growing up. Horrible music and cuts everywhere.

Next up is eel fetish and Law being a sleazy fuck.

The sword reveals itself and Huhnam is a true bro. David Beckham randomly shows up cause why not.

I'll say this though. The visual effects are money. You can see that budget on the screen and the 3D was amazing. Legitimately one of the best 3D movies I've watched.
 

DeathyBoy

Banned
They've been desperately looking for new franchises since Harry Potter ended, which is why they wanted this to be a 6 film series (lol). That said, this project makes a lot less sense to me. The biggest film in recent history that's remotely like it is Ridley Scott's Robin Hood, and that was considered a big budget disappointment.

King Arthur is a sacrifice by WB to make WW box office look good in comparison.
 
Spider-Man: Homecoming forecast from boxoffice.com is up here.

I actually agree with their OW prediction, but a $325M total off of $135M opening would be really bad legs in July.
 
I hadn't realize Dawn of Apes did quite well back in 2014. I loved the movie but for some reason had it in my head it was a modest success, closer to if not under ~$500mil. Maybe because my theater was sparsely filled when I saw it.
 

3N16MA

Banned
I hadn't realize Dawn of Apes did quite well back in 2014. I loved the movie but for some reason had it in my head it was a modest success, closer to if not under ~$500mil. Maybe because my theater was sparsely filled when I saw it.

This doesn't apply to Homecoming but it's interesting to see how close the previous Apes and Spider-Man films were. Both released in 2014.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Domestic: $208,545,589
Foreign: $502,098,977


The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Domestic: $202,853,933
Foreign: $506,128,390
 

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
Warner is way into the risky shit for some reason

Not risky, but director focused.

They built relationships with them and allow them to do their own projects. Eastwood, Nolan, Snyder, Was. Bros, etc.

Guy did Sherlock, so he's got to do his own thing.
 

3N16MA

Banned
Not risky, but director focused.

They built relationships with them and allow them to do their own projects. Eastwood, Nolan, Snyder, Was. Bros, etc.

Guy did Sherlock, so he's got to do his own thing.

Give WB one hit film and they will give you several 150M+ budgets.
 
This doesn't apply to Homecoming but it's interesting to see how close the previous Apes and Spider-Man films were. Both released in 2014.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Domestic: $208,545,589
Foreign: $502,098,977


The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Domestic: $202,853,933
Foreign: $506,128,390
I'm not entirely sold on War doing as well as Dawn domestically. The second trailer didn't generate a lot of online chatter, and Dawn didn't have especially great legs, both of which may be the result of how grim these movies are. I love them for it (and it's totally keeping with the originals), but they're easily the darkest summer blockbusters of recent times.
 

kswiston

Member
Presales for Pirates 5 are huge in China so far (though it is early still). It could easily make more there than domestically.

Power Rangers did even worse than expected on Friday in China. Its gross there will be fairly negligible.
 

Schlorgan

Member
Presales for Pirates 5 are huge in China so far (though it is early still). It could easily make more there than domestically.

Power Rangers did even worse than expected on Friday in China. Its gross there will be fairly negligible.

So it won't even beat GitS.
 

Pachimari

Member
Aw damn, all of my hopes for a Power Rangers sequel no matter how well received the new cast was, is at a 0%.

$325 million DO seems like a great numbers.

I don't know how this works entirely, but are there never any predictions as to what a movie will generate WW?
 

Lima

Member
Man people hate Amy Schumer now. Trainwreck did okay I think? Next flop after that Netflix comedy special.
 
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