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WMS October NPD Preview

Z

ziran

Member
Next Gen

Next Gen said:
Wedbush Morgan Securities has forecast U.S. game sales of $416 million for October, down 13% from last year. Big sellers included Sony's SOCOM III, The Warriors and Tony Hawk's American Wasteland

Other big sellers were Namco’s Soul Calibur III and THQ’s SpongeBob SquarePants. Earlier releases such as Madden NFL 06, NBA Live 06, Activision’s X-Men Legends 2 and Ultimate Spider-Man all performed solidly.

The analyst is predicting modest growth in November and dramatic growth in December, year-on-year, with full year console software sales ending 9% higher than 2004.

Year-to-date, console software sales are up 4.3%, with the Xbox 360 launch later this month expected to add 2% to 4% incrementally to full-year software sales growth.

WMS cautions that comparisons with October 2004 are difficult to make, skewed by a 35% growth almost entirely down to the release of Take-Two’s Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, which accounted for approximately 21% of last year’s sales.

The company tracks big, publicly listed U.S. publishers. It says Activision sales for the month were $50 million, down 2% over last year. Electronic Arts sold $100 million, up 21% over last year. Take-Two managed $40 million, down 68% over last year while THQ was $19 million, up 14% over last year.

WMS sales stats are predictions of impending NPD numbers, due to be released on Thursday. They are based on limited retail samples, but are usually close enough to the final numbers.
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If it was out on the 25th (which it was afaik) it had nearly a week of sales. A bit surprising that they didn't mention it at all.
 
Will we get all hardware numbers this month or are Sony still going to try and hide their poor psp sale numbers?
 
they also didnt mention if nintendogs still held strong..

I hope castlevania got a strong month in sales.. god i hope..

great news on SCIII
 
No mention of GTA:LCS, SotC or RE4. Could SCIII or Spongebob really sell that much more than all of those, to warrant a mention like this?
 
Well GTA and RE4 were released on the 25th, but it doesn't bode particularly well for SotC (though it too was released pretty late in the month). Also, the preview may not be mentioning handhelds at all, because I think they would've surely mentioned Nintendogs as well. I'm not expecting big numbers for GTA, though. I hope it does really well, but they fucked up the advertising completely, imo.
 
Andy787 said:
Well GTA and RE4 were released on the 25th, but it doesn't bode particularly well for SotC (though it too was released pretty late in the month). Also, the preview may not be mentioning handhelds at all, because I think they would've surely mentioned Nintendogs as well. I'm not expecting big numbers for GTA, though. I hope it does really well, but they fucked up the advertising completely, imo.
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They definitely do mention handheld titles if they think they did very well (as they did in August and afaik September with Nintendogs).
 
Andy787 said:
but it doesn't bode particularly well for SotC
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And now Agro is crying.

shadow-of-the-colossus-20050517113126962.jpg
 
October is a 4-week NPD month, which means that it includes sales from October 2-29. GTA:LCS and Nintendogs DS bundle were, AFAIK, both released the week of October 23rd (i.e. maybe 4-5 days of sales), so keep that in mind if anyone is making predictions. I'll do mine later.
 
Spongebob will not even register on top 10 list. No movie tie in this year.

LCS will do around 150-200K. RE4, DBZ, Warriors, and SoTC will all do over 100K. SCIII will do close to that as well. NBA Live will be the best seller for the month.
 
donny2112 said:
October is a 4-week NPD month, which means that it includes sales from October 2-29. GTA:LCS and Nintendogs DS bundle were, AFAIK, both released the week of October 23rd (i.e. maybe 4-5 days of sales), so keep that in mind if anyone is making predictions. I'll do mine later.
Click to expand...

So that means Soul Calibur III got good sales for three days. Not much to go by, but hopefully the November numbers end up being good as well.
 
no mention of GTA:LCS is kind of worrisome given that Take-Two is one of the companies WBM handles.

Lack of Nintendogs of Fire Emblem mention doesn't mean much for the same reason.. WBM doesn't track Nintendo. They typically only mention huge game releases (like SOCOM) or games released by companies they track.
 
borghe said:
no mention of GTA:LCS is kind of worrisome given that Take-Two is one of the companies WBM handles.
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Worrisome? I'm sure not to you :lol

I do agree that it doesn't sound good for GTA and SotC that they mentioned other two games from the same publishers though.
 
edit:
according to last months npd, t2 sold ~ 500k of games grossing ~ $14 million:
http://www.ga-forum.com/showpost.php?p=2087550&postcount=182

this month they sold ~ $40 million according to WMS.

therefore, assuming they sold the same this month, that would leave $26 million between the warriors, gta:lcs, gta:sa [se] and gta trilogy.

i'd guess a max of 50k for gta trilogy @ $60 = $3,000,000

so $23 million between the warriors, gta:sa [se] and gta:lcs @ $50 = 460k.

i'd guess the combined sales of gta:lcs, gta:sa [se] and the warriors is around 450-500k if t2 didn't release anything else in october (but i could be way off...).

as for the split, we don't know anything other than WMS saying the warriors was a big seller. since we have no figures to base it on, it's difficult to predict individual title sales.
 
ziran said:
well, according to last months npd, t2 sold ~ 500k of games grossing ~ $14 million:
http://www.ga-forum.com/showpost.php?p=2087550&postcount=182

this month they sold ~ $40 million according to WMS.

therefore, assuming they sold the same this month, that would leave $26 million between the warriors and gta:lcs.

@ $50 each that would make 26,000,000/50 = 520k

so, very roughly, i'd guess the warriors and gta:lcs sold around 500k combined, if t2 didn't release anything else in october (their gross would've probably increased seasonally even without the new releases).

as for the split, we don't know anything other than WMS saying the warriors was a big seller. since we have no figures to base it on, it's difficult to predict.
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Wasn't the GTA Trilogy also released for the Xbox?
 
i am really pleased to see the warriors apparently doing so well

jap devs, take notes on how to make a good beat em up.
 
Fuzzy said:
Wasn't the GTA Trilogy also released for the Xbox?
Click to expand...

PS2 too, IIRC.

Also, wasn't October when GTA:SA made it back onto store shelves in it's "second edition"???

Considering how big of a franchise GTA has become, I would have thought they'd mention LCS since I think we all thought it'd do really well.
 
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