I am enthusiastic about things that are good for me as a consumer, and I reward those things. In every aspect of entertainment so far subscription services have been positive disruptors as a consumer. and I would also argue that they have made the fields that they compete in better as well. In fact lets look at a couple of these shall we:
Music - Original paradigm was all physical. Stores had limited space, and devoted most of it to major records labels. Your only chance to sell your CD if you were unsigned was at concerts. You had to buy the whole album or singles of hit songs. Physical was replaced by digital and Itunes rose to dominance. By 2014 they controlled upwards of 70% of market for music. You could buy just the songs you wanted. Then streaming came along. Spotify, Pandora, Rhapsody, etc.... Now for one low price you could listen to anything you want. The number of songs on these services continued to rise as subscribers did. From 1 million in 2011 to over 70 million now. It is now very easy for any artist to self publish on streaming or sales platforms using services like Tunecore. As a consumer I have a ridiculous amount of content, for a very low price. I also have many choices of streaming services. Besides that music variety is greater than it has ever been.
TV & Movies - Original paradigm was physical & cable. You could rent or buy. All movies for sale were from big studios, though you could often rent direct to video movies that were smaller budget. TV was shown on a schedule and was filled with commercials. Tons of shitty filler content existed to fill dead time in schedules. Movies and TV were pretty much all made by studios, and smaller projects barely existed unless it could be sold as direct to video. Whe digital rolled around it meant that you could buy movies and TV shows and watch on your own schedule with no commercials. Then streaming came, offering on demand content with no commercials for low prices. There is a war for content and creators are getting bigger budgets than ever before, with Netflix, HBO, etc.... hiring talented directors or writers directly and giving them resources instead of signing deals with studios. As a consumer I have more choices than ever before, at a lower cost, with no commercials, and streamed when I want. In 2005 my father paid nearly $200 a month for TV/Internet. Nowadays you can get Amazon Prime, Netflix, Hulu, Paramount+, HBO altogether for around $60 and you have more content than you had before at a lower cost.
I see games being no different. Consumers are going to go where they are treated best, and Gamepass is incredible for consumers who play a lot of games, plus curation of the game library is top notch. Looking at your "major impacts" section, I also disagree with every single one:
- Devaluing games which are the only media that has retained it's value in the shift to digital
- Games have already been "devalued" with Steam, a service you praise. My entire huge Steam back catalog was purchased at very extreme discounts. I also own over 600 Xbox and over 150 PS4 games that I purchased at very low prices (it is rare for me to pay more than $10 for a game). Game publishers seem to have found that there is plenty of long tail money to be made by offering their digital games at low prices.
- massive consolidation of power to a handful of service owners, control of "content creators" falls into ever fewer hands
- Content is going to become more valuable as companies compete, not less. Good games now have more avenues to make money, even "risk-free" subscription money.
- content control as they decide what gets greenlit or not, this may be fine when the guys in charge give a shit about the art but large corporations are full of soulless suits waiting to take over
- Shitty games won't be played, even on subscriptions. If a streaming company makes nothing but shit then who would subscribe to it. This is the silliest argument. Subscriptions allow for more risks to be taken because there is a built in audience who will be willing to try things. I have tried a bunch of games I wouldn't have ever purchased because I might as well, and some have been killer games.
- a push for GAAS systems as time and attention are the new metric for success
- This shows me that you've never used Gamepass. There are a handful of GAAS games and hundreds that are not. Most successful GAAS games are going to be free to play and on every platform. For a subscription you need experiences that keep people subscribed, not F2P games
- decoupling quality from success, the audience has lower expectations for "free" media and the link between a genuinely good game and its financial success is muddied.
- People are going to play and buy good games whether they are ever put on a subscription service or not. If a game is on a subscription service and is good it is probably going to increase its sales and word of mouth by being on that service. If its shitty its going to get ignored, subscription or not.