Attack the front legs by standing between his head, and standing in the center of his belly after 2-3 attacks since you need to react to these:
You will have a a 50% of him attacking you with his legs. You can attack the opposite legs during the attack animation
25% of him breathing fire under his legs. You can attack during either legs during the attack animation.
25% of him flying upward. Look behind for tail and run.
But the whole point isn't the %, it is being in the center of the circle during his flight.
Meaning there is no random chances of you not able to predict where he will go up doing stupid crap like turning 90/360 degree to adjust to the area.
He will always go upward, and look down/turning in a clockwise or CCW direction.
You can't fail tbh after you see the flight animation since the tail will always behind you in a CW or CCW(left/right) of your character.
Too me 7 tries because I got greedy and I was in a middle of a swing while he was up in the air or I was dodging instead of running since the fire breathe between his legs look like he was flying upward.
So make sure you see dusts first to see if he is flying or breathing fire between his legs as well.
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