Chobel
Member
Does the normal SKU still include free Forza?
Microsoft E3 2014 predictions
- Thread starter Syphon Filter
- Start date
Does the normal SKU still include free Forza?
Syphon Filter
Member
yea
statham
Member
It does.
I can't see MS dropping the price by any more than $50.
With a $150 pricecut they would be selling each console at a large loss (>$100/unit)
TheExecutive
Member
We will see a continuation of the reversal of the previous policies that were enacted under the mattrick Era. Hopefully it's about brand repairing with gaming leading the way
gaming_noob
Member
If Nelson hinted on a price drop, people would wait to buy an Xone. I don't think MS wants that. Games and a more respectable price should be their main focus this E3.
SneakySneaks
Member
Assassin's Creed is all but confirmed for Sony's conference. They still have a marketing deal with Ubi (like Watch_Dogs).
Anyways my take is:
COD
BT Gears Game
Season 2 KI
QB
SO
New IP from Rare
New Actvision IP, Exclusive DCL for One
Kinect Shit
TV Shows, maybe have a big director on stage talking about series.
ESPN-NFL. Maybe NBA, Sony has NHL on lock down and has Sunday Ticket.
Random slideshow of 3rd party non exclusives and indie games
Exclusive slide show with Forza and Fable
Halo 2: Remaster
Halo 5
Droopaloop
Banned
I don't believe they will, but they can show as much TV shit as they like if they give me Crimson Skies 2
. I still toss original in about once a year and give it a play through.
One
Does anyone know if the reported 2.9 attach rate of software to Xbox One units last month include digital sales? I have a whole argument around how the system is selling games really well and potentially better than expected if digital sales weren't included and dropping the base price to $399 could do wonders for them.
Well they released this picture... lol
I want Castle Crashers 2
Is that a cupcake riding a spider witch thing?
I knew Behemoth were weird but...
Syphon Filter
Member
You mean npd? They dont count digital yet.
Well the attach rate came from Microsoft's press release and wasn't sure if Yusuf was only using NPD numbers or including their digital sales data as well.
I highly doubt they will drop as low as 399. I could see them dropping it to 449 though.
Agreed, 399 is really stretching it as well.
With the deal with the pack in game, they essentially had the system at $389. I think they definitely go to $399 for parity with Sony as I believe it is one of the largest contributing factors to them being outpaced.
El-Pistolero
Member
I think MS have no choice but to prepare the best conference of them all. They are a distant second,...a rich, powerful distant second that needs to stop the possible exhodus of their old customers. They have been hinting at a packed show, and I have no reason not to believe them.
I wouldn't say it is a stretch actually even 349 isn't a stretch as long as ditch Kinect which most likely will happen.
A packin is a lot cheaper for them to do then a price drop. A $50 price drop costs them $50. A copy of Titanfall or Forza costs them a lot less than $50.
$399 seems like a panic price(assuming they haven't dropped Kinect). I think it's possible, but only if things look really bad. April NPDs could give us a good idea, as that is looking to be a normal month without any boosts from impending TitanFall or new sales. If April looks really bad, it might be more likely.
The kinect is only 70 though. That's still an $80 difference. If they were making $30 at $500. At 349 that's a $50 loss per console.
For consumers a pack-in game effectively makes it a $389 system, but the same can't be said for MS.
I can't see them taking that big of loss, the current level of sales doesn't warrant a panic response.
I think it's too early for Kinect to be dropped right now, I'm expecting that in 2015.
Chobel
Member
According to Aquamarine Xbone software attach rate (NPD only = retail) is 2.96.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=108606555&postcount=4202
It is pointless because we don't have the profit margin per box currently I would of thought Kinect would of cost closer to $100 to produce.
I do expect
Forza Horizon 2
Some sort of non-kinect Rare game (I'm thinking just a teaser for some reason)
Halo 2 Anniversary
Sunset Overdrive gameplay/trailer
Some new IP -- shooter-esque
Some sort of platformer
A Japanese game. Either JRPG or platformer. Japanese at least.
Sometime during the presentation some sort of list or picture showing a bunch of developers and/or game/IP titles.
Uh, Phantom Dust? Maybe?
I expect something about PC games. Something.
I do NOT expect:
Gears of War
Crackdown
Halo 5 -- really hard to say on this one, but I'm thinking it'll be a no-show. Maybe a mention or even just the title on the screen (<-- can totally see that happening), but no more.
My silly/stupid/pleaseohplease list:
Viva Pinata 3, faithful to the formula, while fixing the problems that first to had, and from Rare
Banjo-Threeie
A sequel to Halo 3 ODST. Something like Halo 5 ODST or something
Gears Trilogy on Xbox with all DLC + new Gears 3 Xbox One only DLC
Also throwing in a slight chance of Conker/Banjo-Kazooie with a high of Voodoo vince. Also some Crytek stuff, I'd wager.
Hadn't thought of this. I agree, very likely.
This too. Maybe not at E3, but this year or next for certain.
Forza Horizon 2
Some sort of non-kinect Rare game (I'm thinking just a teaser for some reason)
Halo 2 Anniversary
Sunset Overdrive gameplay/trailer
Some new IP -- shooter-esque
Some sort of platformer
A Japanese game. Either JRPG or platformer. Japanese at least.
Sometime during the presentation some sort of list or picture showing a bunch of developers and/or game/IP titles.
Uh, Phantom Dust? Maybe?
I expect something about PC games. Something.
I do NOT expect:
Gears of War
Crackdown
Halo 5 -- really hard to say on this one, but I'm thinking it'll be a no-show. Maybe a mention or even just the title on the screen (<-- can totally see that happening), but no more.
My silly/stupid/pleaseohplease list:
Viva Pinata 3, faithful to the formula, while fixing the problems that first to had, and from Rare
Banjo-Threeie
A sequel to Halo 3 ODST. Something like Halo 5 ODST or something
Gears Trilogy on Xbox with all DLC + new Gears 3 Xbox One only DLC
Also throwing in a slight chance of Conker/Banjo-Kazooie with a high of Voodoo vince. Also some Crytek stuff, I'd wager.
Hadn't thought of this. I agree, very likely.
It's unlikely, but I've got the feeling Twisted Pixel's new game will be an AAA game. The concept art they included in Lococycle doesn't strike me as belonging to a downloadable $20/15 title, which it probably is anyway.
This too. Maybe not at E3, but this year or next for certain.
Depending on what their margins are on the system, lowering it to $399 looks better on all fronts. Sure a pack in game costs them less but as a consumer seeing a base system that is $50=$100 more expensive then the direct competition is a little off putting. Luckily, they're not dealing with a RRoD situation where they have to eat a billion dollars worth of units because of bad design. Microsoft makes their money off Xbox Ones in game royalties and services on the system. Getting consoles into homes is the #1 priority and they need the price to reflect that priority.
I wonder how much both Microsoft's and Sony's attach numbers are deflated from digital sales. I own 2 physical games and the other 14 games are digital, 7 of which are available in a physical copy.
Syphon Filter
Member
Its not doing poorly but i think they could do better at this point, 360 was supply constrained and back then you couldn't send out as much consoles compared to now.
Back in September Yusuf Mehdi said that they would be selling at break even or low margin.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2013/09/06/at-500-microsoft-says-the-xbox-one-will-break-even-or-make-a-profit/
$399 looks better, but it's more expensive for them to do. I was pointing that out because you said they "essentially had the system at $389". A price drop to $399 costs them more than $110 in pack ins, regardless of the margins on the system. A price drop to $399 would be for MS a larger discount than they've given out so far. I don't think they go with a larger discount unless they feel they have to.
I have a question. Are you 6?
I would prefer a spinoff title for that.
Keep the mainline Halo improving the campaign and giving us more of what we love (Halo campaigns are usually pretty sure anyway, so the more of them the better).
Then do something like Halo 5 ODST as a spinoff. More open-world RPG-esque.
licktheenvelope
Member
With no Kinect I don't see why $350 would be out of the relm of possibility...
As along as the attach rate stays up, you make back the loss on the system. My reasoning behind saying it's a $389 system is because as a consumer you see Titanfall or Forza 5 which are both $60 titles you're getting for free. I understand the financial side of Microsoft shifting to losing money on a per console basis, which they might already be doing with the two bundles with the price drop, but traditionally they've made money back through Live and software and I don't expect that to change for them for 2-3 years on the Xbox One.
My response exactly.
I understand you're reasoning for saying it's a $389 system from a consumer's perspective, but keep in mind that isn't true from MS's perspective. Let's say that the deal MS cut with EA for the Titanfall packin was for $30 a copy. That means for MS, they get $420 per system($450 - $30). If they do a $100 drop instead, they get $400, which is less than $420.
A pure price drop is more expensive for them. They won't go with $100 off unless they feel that they need to. Let's assume they can make back the loss. If they think $420 will be enough, why throw away that $20? My argument is not that they cannot cut it by $100, it's that they likely think $50(possibly with continuing pack-ins) will do the trick for now.
Syphon Filter
Member
I expect a few new IPs.
lol
I expect a few new IPs.
LMAO
Fair enough. It'll be interesting to see what route they take. It's not like the system is in a terrible position, it is selling just not as quickly as the PS4.
I definitely believe going forward Phil Spencer's influence will start showing more and more but right away they may be tied down from things that have been planned out far ahead of him taking over the Head of Xbox position. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing though as Microsoft really changed their tune after the initial reveal. To me, this E3 kinda acts as a barometer for where they were 6-8 months ago as a company since most of E3 is planned far ahead of time to give developers time to prepare things.
I expect a few new IPs.
:lol
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
Call of Duty, a price cut, new media features (groan), and maybe a Halo announcement.
Syphon Filter
Member
I doubt you will see Halo gameplay,a new trailer revealed as Halo 5 but that is it. Its too far away. I think the old returning game will have a surprise impact. I really think they will surprise people.
rokkerkory
Member
MS seems like it has the most to lose this gen so it better bring out all the stops.
I like to root for the underdogs so MS has my nod for now. Don't mess up Phil Spencer!
If H2A MP is messed with, I am outtie.
I like to root for the underdogs so MS has my nod for now. Don't mess up Phil Spencer!
If H2A MP is messed with, I am outtie.
Fox_Mulder
Rockefellers. Skull and Bones. Microsoft. Al Qaeda. A Cabal of Bankers. The melting point of steel. What do these things have in common? Wake up sheeple, the landfill wasn't even REAL!
My 2 cents are on price cut and a Shenmue game
viveks86
Member
I expect a few new IPs.
LOL!
$399 SKU without Kinect
$499 SKU with Kinect + 1TB HDD
Fortaleza glasses announcement and demo
Games with Gold revision
1 revived IP (Banjo, Battletoads, Phantom Dust, or Viva Pinata)
3-5 new IP (2-3 mobile games from LiftLondon, 2-3 from other studios)
Fable Legends gameplay
Fantasia: Music Evolved gameplay
Forza Horizon 2 announcement and gameplay
Halo 2 Anniversary announcement and gameplay
Halo 5 teaser
Killer Instinct Season 2 announcement with Cinder, Combo, and Riptor
Kinect Sports Rivals Winter Games Expansion
Quantum Break gameplay
State of Decay for Xbox One
Sunset Overdrive gameplay
Not sure what to make of the Japanese release. They must have some new games in development by Japanese studios.
Isn't there a Ruffian Xbox One game in development as well? Wasn't it rumored to be a FPS?
Gears, Crackdown, and the Platinum game are too far off.
$499 SKU with Kinect + 1TB HDD
Fortaleza glasses announcement and demo
Games with Gold revision
1 revived IP (Banjo, Battletoads, Phantom Dust, or Viva Pinata)
3-5 new IP (2-3 mobile games from LiftLondon, 2-3 from other studios)
Fable Legends gameplay
Fantasia: Music Evolved gameplay
Forza Horizon 2 announcement and gameplay
Halo 2 Anniversary announcement and gameplay
Halo 5 teaser
Killer Instinct Season 2 announcement with Cinder, Combo, and Riptor
Kinect Sports Rivals Winter Games Expansion
Quantum Break gameplay
State of Decay for Xbox One
Sunset Overdrive gameplay
Not sure what to make of the Japanese release. They must have some new games in development by Japanese studios.
Isn't there a Ruffian Xbox One game in development as well? Wasn't it rumored to be a FPS?
Gears, Crackdown, and the Platinum game are too far off.