Eurogamer: GTA V coming to PC early 2014

sTaTIx

Member
Someone get some crow ready

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/04/steam-gauge-addressing-your-questions-and-concerns/2/

I'm surprised I read something this ignorant on GAF.

Jesus, some of those numbers look inflated as fuck. You're going to tell me that Bioshock: Infinite and Mirror's Edge on Steam alone outsold or rivaled the PS3 and 360 versions combined? I don't buy that for a second.

Ars Technica claims they're using a "random sampling" of 0.04 percent of the Steam population, but who knows if the methodology they use is truly as random as they think (hope) it is. A randomized server crawler sounds good in theory, but what if it only has access to certain servers at a given time, and is mostly accessing profiles North American or nearby regions? That essentially makes the entire process non-random, and completely throws off the extrapolated results.
 

SparkTR

Member
Jesus, some of those numbers look inflated as fuck. You're going to tell me that Bioshock: Infinite and Mirror's Edge on Steam alone outsold or rivaled the PS3 and 360 versions combined? I don't buy that for a second.

Ars Technica claims they're using a "random sampling" of 0.04 percent of the Steam population, but who knows if the methodology they use is truly as random as they think (hope) it is.

They tested their method on some games with official numbers released (like Day Z and Rust) and they came within to around a 1 or 5% margin of error or something like that. So their numbers are definitely something to consider.

I think the main thing to understand here is that with Steams pricing changes in places like Russia and Brazil, you have a whole lot more people in not traditionally 'AAA' regions legally buying AAA games for the first time. Looking at The Witcher 3 Steam forum yesterday a bunch of threads were in Russian.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Jesus, some of those numbers look inflated as fuck. You're going to tell me that Bioshock: Infinite and Mirror's Edge on Steam alone outsold or rivaled the PS3 and 360 versions combined? I don't buy that for a second.

Ars Technica claims they're using a "random sampling" of 0.04 percent of the Steam population, but who knows if the methodology they use is truly as random as they think (hope) it is. A randomized server crawler sounds good in theory, but what if it only has access to certain servers at a given time, and is mostly accessing profiles North American or nearby regions? That essentially makes the entire process non-random, and completely throws off the extrapolated results.

They have compared much of their numbers to outstanding official numbers and numbers sent privately by developers, and they have all compared very favorably.
 
Just stumbled across this article http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/gta-5-ps-vita-might-be-next-rockstars-development-list-1449558

WOW that would be great. "GTA 5 for PS Vita Might be Next on Rockstar's Development List"

I'd expect it to be the psp games going to mobile to be honest... not sure if they owned ' city stories' alone before, the Lego Wii U game almost used it.
Might be to avoid a bunch of ' new york city stories' style titles appearing in the ios and android stores.
 

sTaTIx

Member
The fact is, all recent Call of Duty games have an actual in-game number showing the total number of active players worldwide at any given moment. If these COD Steam sales figures are true, then there would be ~40-50k active players on the PC version of Ghosts at midday, just like it is on the PS4 and/or Xbox One versions.

Instead, the in-game number for the PC version of Ghosts is at ~1.5k players online.

That player discrepancy, from an actual, real-time in-game source, just completely throws these Steam Gauge estimates into question, to my eyes.
 
The fact is, all recent Call of Duty games have an actual in-game number showing the total number of active players worldwide at any given moment. If these COD Steam sales figures are true, then there would be ~40-50k active players on the PC version of Ghosts at midday, just like it is on the PS4 and/or Xbox One versions.

Instead, the in-game number for the PC version of Ghosts is at ~1.5k players online.

That player discrepancy, from an actual, real-time in-game source, just completely throws these Steam Gauge estimates into question, to my eyes.

http://store.steampowered.com/stats/

PC players don't care much for Call of Duty anymore
 
The fact is, all recent Call of Duty games have an actual in-game number showing the total number of active players worldwide at any given moment. If these COD Steam sales figures are true, then there would be ~40-50k active players on the PC version of Ghosts at midday, just like it is on the PS4 and/or Xbox One versions.

Instead, the in-game number for the PC version of Ghosts is at ~1.5k players online.

That player discrepancy, from an actual, real-time in-game source, just completely throws these Steam Gauge estimates into question, to my eyes.
Except CoD is a joke of a series on PC now.
 

sTaTIx

Member
http://store.steampowered.com/stats/

PC players doesn't care much for Call of Duty anymore

So that's your only explanation for why Ghosts on PC sold about the same as the PS4 version, yet only sports 4% of players actively playing the game online? Because PC players buy the same number of copies of the game, but play it 96% less than PS4 players? That in itself is an alarming disparity if true, for completely different reasons.

In actuality, if anything, PC players are probably more apt to play a game's MP mode than their console counterparts. Due to a variety of factors, such as an online paywall on consoles, and the fact that many console players only buy COD for the single-player campaign.
 
The fact is, all recent Call of Duty games have an actual in-game number showing the total number of active players worldwide at any given moment. If these COD Steam sales figures are true, then there would be ~40-50k active players on the PC version of Ghosts at midday, just like it is on the PS4 and/or Xbox One versions.

Instead, the in-game number for the PC version of Ghosts is at ~1.5k players online.

That player discrepancy, from an actual, real-time in-game source, just completely throws these Steam Gauge estimates into question, to my eyes.

So one game series is enough evidence for you? Completely throws your argument into question, to my eyes.
 

sTaTIx

Member
So one game series is enough evidence for you? Completely throws your argument into question, to my eyes.

It's not just one game. I play the PC version of Titanfall on a regular basis, and it takes forever to get into a game mode other than Attrition (Team Deathmatch). Hardpoint, the second most active mode, has typically huge wait times. Capture the Flag? Forget about it.

Are you saying Titanfall is a "joke of a series" on PC as well?
 
The fact is, all recent Call of Duty games have an actual in-game number showing the total number of active players worldwide at any given moment. If these COD Steam sales figures are true, then there would be ~40-50k active players on the PC version of Ghosts at midday, just like it is on the PS4 and/or Xbox One versions.

Instead, the in-game number for the PC version of Ghosts is at ~1.5k players online.

That player discrepancy, from an actual, real-time in-game source, just completely throws these Steam Gauge estimates into question, to my eyes.

call of duty is a console phenomenon now. there are a number of better online games you can place over call of duty on pc.
 

Grief.exe

Member
The fact is, all recent Call of Duty games have an actual in-game number showing the total number of active players worldwide at any given moment. If these COD Steam sales figures are true, then there would be ~40-50k active players on the PC version of Ghosts at midday, just like it is on the PS4 and/or Xbox One versions.

Instead, the in-game number for the PC version of Ghosts is at ~1.5k players online.

That player discrepancy, from an actual, real-time in-game source, just completely throws these Steam Gauge estimates into question, to my eyes.

COD is a joke on PC at this point. Ghosts is struggling to keep a player base at all, more people are playing Black Ops.

So that's your only explanation for why Ghosts on PC sold about the same as the PS4 version, yet only sports 4% of players actively playing the game online? Because PC players buy the same number of copies of the game, but play it 96% less than PS4 players? That in itself is an alarming disparity if true, for completely different reasons.

In actuality, if anything, PC players are probably more apt to play a game's MP mode than their console counterparts. Due to a variety of factors, such as an online paywall on consoles, and the fact that many console players only buy COD for the single-player campaign.

Where are you getting those numbers?
 

Leb

Member
The fact is, all recent Call of Duty games have an actual in-game number showing the total number of active players worldwide at any given moment. If these COD Steam sales figures are true, then there would be ~40-50k active players on the PC version of Ghosts at midday, just like it is on the PS4 and/or Xbox One versions.

Instead, the in-game number for the PC version of Ghosts is at ~1.5k players online.

That player discrepancy, from an actual, real-time in-game source, just completely throws these Steam Gauge estimates into question, to my eyes.

So, just to be clear, you're using a single datapoint which is itself almost wholly unrelated to the discussion at hand to dismiss a study whose methodology is well-explained, statistically sound and whose results has been corroborated by no fewer than a dozen developers who report that the predicted results are no more than 10% off (at worst) of the actual value.

Cool.
 
It's not just one game. I play the PC version of Titanfall on a regular basis, and it takes forever to get into a game mode other than Attrition (Team Deathmatch). Hardpoint, the second most active mode, has typically huge wait times. Capture the Flag? Forget about it.

Are you saying Titanfall is a "joke of a series" on PC as well?
If you release an online shooter without a server browser and only Big Publisher's goodwill to keep it floating, yes. Oh, and when you lock it exclusively to a service many actively hate.
 
It's not just one game. I play the PC version of Titanfall on a regular basis, and it takes forever to get into a game mode other than Attrition (Team Deathmatch). Hardpoint, the second most active mode, has typically huge wait times. Capture the Flag? Forget about it.

Are you saying Titanfall is a "joke of a series" on PC as well?

Yep. Plenty of PC games have great multiplayer numbers. TitanFall and COD just don't. I don't see Counter Strike GO with thousands of people playing it on console but it does excellent on PC. Different platforms different tastes.

Then there's the fact that TitanFall didn't come with a server browser, they doomed it on release.
 

Corpekata

Banned
Also Mirror's Edge having that many sales is not exactly mind blowing. It was in the Humble Origin Bundle which sold over 2 million copies alone and raised 10 million dollars. That's why there's such a large discrepancy from owners and players. Bundled games tend to have that.
 

sTaTIx

Member
If you release an online shooter without a server browser and only Big Publisher's goodwill to keep it floating, yes. Oh, and when you lock it exclusively to a service many actively hate.

Even PC-oriented (w/ PC being the lead platform) game like BF4 is handily beaten by PS4 player numbers. A console not yet a year old with an install base of a few million has more players on a traditionally PC-oriented FPS.

I don't want to hear arguments about Battlefield being a "joke of a franchise" on PC either.

Where are you getting those numbers?
Look at the in-game "Players Online" figure provided by the main multiplayer screen. It's been in every COD since BO1.
 

Corpekata

Banned
Even PC-oriented (w/ PC being the lead platform) game like BF4 is handily beaten by PS4 player numbers. A console not yet a year old with an install base of a few million has more players on a traditionally PC-oriented FPS.

I don't want to hear arguments about Battlefield being a "joke of a franchise" on PC either.


Look at the in-game "Players Online" figure provided by the main multiplayer screen. It's been in every COD since BO1.

I think he means where are you getting the PC and PS4 sales numbers.
 

sTaTIx

Member
Yep. Plenty of PC games have great multiplayer numbers. TitanFall and COD just don't. I don't see Counter Strike GO with thousands of people playing it on console but it does excellent on PC. Different platforms different tastes.

Then there's the fact that TitanFall didn't come with a server browser, they doomed it on release.

Everything you say is true (except for the part about lack of server browser dooming Titanfall).

Still doesn't explain how COD Ghosts (according to Steam Gauge) sold about the same on Steam as PS4 and Xbox One (~2mil copies), and yet only has about 4% of the number of players actually playing the damn game. You're telling me that 2mil+ PC players bought Ghosts, but refuse to actually play it online? Why the hell did they buy it in the first place?

I think he means where are you getting the PC and PS4 sales numbers.

All the previous COD titles on Steam have allegedly sold at least 2 million copies (according to those Steam Gauge estimates). I would logically have to assume that Ghosts follows that trend.
 
Everything you say is true (except for the part about lack of server browser dooming Titanfall).

Still doesn't explain how COD Ghosts (probably) sold about the same on Steam as PS4 and Xbox One (~2mil copies), and yet only has about 4% of the number of players actually playing the damn game. You're telling me that 2mil+ PC players bought Ghosts, but refuse to actually play it online?

because there aren't as many online games on the PS4/One than on the PC, and that people played for a little while on PC and moved on to other games? did that ever occur to you?
 

Corpekata

Banned
Everything you say is true (except for the part about lack of server browser dooming Titanfall).

Still doesn't explain how COD Ghosts (probably) sold about the same on Steam as PS4 and Xbox One (~2mil copies), and yet only has about 4% of the number of players actually playing the damn game. You're telling me that 2mil+ PC players bought Ghosts, but refuse to actually play it online?



All the previous COD titles on Steam have allegedly sold at least 2 million copies (according to those Steam Gauge estimates). I would logically have to assume that Ghosts follows that trend.


Well, Black OPS 2 is only sitting at 1.8, and is currently far better regarded that Ghosts and more active, as well as having been involved in more price cuts (and obviously been out a year). The series has been trending downward on sales for ages on PC. I'd say it's a pretty big leap to assume Ghosts has sold 2 million when even BLOPS 2 hasn't hit it.
 

Leb

Member
Even PC-oriented (w/ PC being the lead platform) game like BF4 is handily beaten by PS4 player numbers. A console not yet a year old with an install base of a few million has more players on a traditionally PC-oriented FPS.

I don't want to hear arguments about Battlefield being a "joke of a franchise" on PC either.

Interesting narrative. Thing is, according to BF4DB, the PC routinely has the highest 24 hr peak of any platform (the spike usually occurs during peak hours in Europe).
 
Even PC-oriented (w/ PC being the lead platform) game like BF4 is handily beaten by PS4 player numbers. A console not yet a year old with an install base of a few million has more players on a traditionally PC-oriented FPS.

I don't want to hear arguments about Battlefield being a "joke of a franchise" on PC either.


Look at the in-game "Players Online" figure provided by the main multiplayer screen. It's been in every COD since BO1.
Battlefield 4 is exclusive to Origin on PC. When a game isn't on Steam, you see less sales.
 

sTaTIx

Member
because there aren't as many online games on the PS4/One than on the PC, and that people played for a little while on PC and moved on to other games? did that ever occur to you?

That's one possibility that did indeed occur to me.

The other possibility that occurred to me is that those Steam Gauge sales estimates aren't accurate.

I find the latter more believable, than the theory that millions of players buy Call of Duty on Steam every year, but just let it rot in their hard drive after installing it.
 

Sora2k7

Member
That's one possibility that did indeed occur to me.

The other possibility that occurred to me is that those Steam Gauge sales estimates aren't accurate.

I find the latter more believable, than the theory that millions of players buy Call of Duty on Steam every year, but just let it rot in their hard drive after installing it.

The thing about steam is most people buy games in sales and "let it rot".

Actually am still clearing my backlog of games I bought last summer sale and I don't want to think about the ones I bought from the winter sale.

Edit: here is my steam profile:
http://steamcommunity.com/id/sora2k7

See how many games are still on 0 hours
 

Grief.exe

Member
That's one possibility that did indeed occur to me.

The other possibility that occurred to me is that those Steam Gauge sales estimates aren't accurate.

I find the latter more believable, than the theory that millions of players buy Call of Duty on Steam every year, but just let it rot in their hard drive after installing it.

Call of Duty is not selling millions of copies on PC a year. Ghosts couldn't even reach 40K concurrent at launch, which is a mediocre launch for a AAA game at this point. For reference, Watch Dogs peaked at 50K concurrent and the game isn't even a Steamworks title.

The numbers have been corroborated by official numbers and by around a dozen developers sending in numbers unofficially. I doubt I will respond again unless you have a valid argument, don't see any point in continually beating my head against a wall.
 

Dead Man

Member
Oh, please. You think Valve would be hiding (i.e., "choosing not to disclose") sales numbers for games on their service if sales were stellar? I bet that the vast majority of big-name and/or AAA releases fail to cross the .5 mil mark; or even the 100k-200k mark.

Bahahhahah
 

Denton

Member
CoD Ghosts is not even in the TOP 100 sellers of Ars's best seller list.

What the fuck is sTaTix arguing here for ? The fact that it isn't there actually serves to prove the list's validity. Not disprove it.

Oh, please. You think Valve would be hiding (i.e., "choosing not to disclose") sales numbers for games on their service if sales were stellar? I bet that the vast majority of big-name and/or AAA releases fail to cross the .5 mil mark; or even the 100k-200k mark.

Oh yeah and this gem.
Let me laugh even harder.
But hey, center of attention:
ACHIEVED.
 

Soule

Member
Everything you say is true (except for the part about lack of server browser dooming Titanfall).

Still doesn't explain how COD Ghosts (according to Steam Gauge) sold about the same on Steam as PS4 and Xbox One (~2mil copies), and yet only has about 4% of the number of players actually playing the damn game. You're telling me that 2mil+ PC players bought Ghosts, but refuse to actually play it online? Why the hell did they buy it in the first place?



All the previous COD titles on Steam have allegedly sold at least 2 million copies (according to those Steam Gauge estimates). I would logically have to assume that Ghosts follows that trend.

Hohoho it's like you don't know that people prefer to buy games rather than play them on Steam. They found that 37% of games registered to accounts (i.e. games people own) haven't been loaded a single time. Your bolded section isn't that far off at all, people move on quickly and more than you would sanely expect may not even bother playing it at all.

EDIT:

Oh, please. You think Valve would be hiding (i.e., "choosing not to disclose") sales numbers for games on their service if sales were stellar? I bet that the vast majority of big-name and/or AAA releases fail to cross the .5 mil mark; or even the 100k-200k mark.

As for this, I was always under the impression that it was up to the discretion of the developer/publisher to release sales number. The developers of Dustforce published a great breakdown of their sales without any issue from Valve here so i don't actually expect that Valve actively hides the sales figures but people would rather not share.

http://hitboxteam.com/dustforce-sales-figures
 

kudoboi

Member
CoD Ghosts is not even in the TOP 100 sellers of Ars's best seller list.

What the fuck is sTaTix arguing here for ? The fact that it isn't there actually serves to prove the list's validity. Not disprove it.

yeah. that is exactly what I was wondering. How did he conclude that it sold 2M copies on PC?
 

Soule

Member
All the previous COD titles on Steam have allegedly sold at least 2 million copies (according to those Steam Gauge estimates). I would logically have to assume that Ghosts follows that trend.

It's purely an assumption despite him straight up being wrong about all the previous titles being >2M as evidenced by Blops 2 and ignoring the trend of diminishing sales but that isn't stopping him.

Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 2 -- 3,728,621
Call of Duty®: Black Ops -- 2,832,20
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 3 -- 2,373,849
Call of Duty®: Black Ops II -- 1,450,685
 

Qassim

Member
I don't want to hear arguments about Battlefield being a "joke of a franchise" on PC either.

Why not? There are other PC online FPS games like Counter-Strike that get significantly better numbers than any platform on BF4, in fact it averages at numbers bigger than several consoles combined on BF4.

Console oriented titles (which BF4 IS) are rarely ever the most played games on PC - and that's what Battlefield is now. I'm not sure why you're refusing to hear that argument, it's not as if Battlefield is one of the most played PC games yet it is still being beaten by the PS4 - it's just not. The most popular PC games get significantly higher player counts.

Call of Duty was also traditionally a PC franchise, but I don't see anyone else making that argument - CoD changed and as has Battlefield.
 

subwilde

Member
The reason GTA has not made it to the PC yet is because the code is so butchered to make it work on the consoles that it requires significant reprogramming, same thing happened with RDR that's why it never made it to PC in my opinion, however the clamour for GTA V is massive so I imagine Rockstar are actually going to do it, it's just taking quite some time to achieve.

So what happens when Rockstar starts developing on the new consoles and PC? Win win right?
 

Qassim

Member
The reason GTA has not made it to the PC yet is because the code is so butchered to make it work on the consoles that it requires significant reprogramming, same thing happened with RDR that's why it never made it to PC in my opinion, however the clamour for GTA V is massive so I imagine Rockstar are actually going to do it, it's just taking quite some time to achieve.

[citation needed]
 

Longshot

Member
The reason GTA has not made it to the PC yet is because the code is so butchered to make it work on the consoles that it requires significant reprogramming, same thing happened with RDR that's why it never made it to PC in my opinion, however the clamour for GTA V is massive so I imagine Rockstar are actually going to do it, it's just taking quite some time to achieve.
Got a source for this?

I know this is true for RDR but that was developed by Rockstar San Diego. I doubt Rockstar North are that, for a lack of a better word, amateur with their programming.
 

Asgaro

Member
The fact is, all recent Call of Duty games have an actual in-game number showing the total number of active players worldwide at any given moment. If these COD Steam sales figures are true, then there would be ~40-50k active players on the PC version of Ghosts at midday, just like it is on the PS4 and/or Xbox One versions.

Instead, the in-game number for the PC version of Ghosts is at ~1.5k players online.

That player discrepancy, from an actual, real-time in-game source, just completely throws these Steam Gauge estimates into question, to my eyes.

Here are the stats from COD BO2 compared to COD Ghosts:
(These are a bit outdated screens that still were sitting around in my Dropbox.
For more recent values, see steamcharts.com )

bo2stats.PNG


ghostsstats.PNG


Just look at the "Avg. Players" column.

COD games are on the decline on the PC platform, and rightfully so.
When devs shit on their user base you can expect people don't care anymore.
On top of that, I heard the game is an unoptimized turd.
And the PC platform has way better FPS shooters to pick from. On consoles you really don't have that much choice.
 
Rockstar please release

-Red Dead Redemption on PS Vita and PC
-GTA 4 on PS Vita and PS4 and Xbox One 1080p60
-GTA 5 on PS Vita, PC, PS4 and Xbox One

All are happy.
😀
 

JaseC

gave away the keys to the kingdom.
Pretty sure I read somewhere this was the case and also Rockstar is quoted as saying (On Red Dead Redemption)

"We do know that, yes, there is just one title absent from our PC release plans – that game of course being Red Dead Redemption, and of course we're well aware that some fans have been asking for it. All we can say is that whenever it is viable (technically, developmentally and business-wise) for us to release a game for PC (or any other particular platform) – we will and we usually do; unfortunately, that is just not the case 100% of the time for all platforms."

"Not viable" doesn't really mean anything when it lacks qualification. Many seem to flock to the butchered code rumour whenever RDR pops up, but it's always been incredibly dubious in my eyes since RAGE was developed specifically to facilitate "next-gen" PS360/PC development. The notion that R* had to throw the baby out with the bathwater and stitch together some sort of frankenstenien solution for RDR simply doesn't make any sense whatsoever, and even if it were true it doesn't mean a PC port "isn't viable", anyway -- GTA4 PC was, to begin with, little more than a dump of the X360 version, being completely unplayable on anything that less than a tri-core CPU (it's still a prime example of a sloppy PC port, but it's slightly better now than it was).
 
"Not viable" doesn't really mean anything when it lacks qualification. Many seem to flock to the butchered code rumour whenever RDR pops up, but it's always been incredibly dubious in my eyes since RAGE was developed specifically to facilitate "next-gen" PS360/PC development. The notion that R* had to throw the baby out with the bathwater and stitch together some sort of frankenstenien solution for RDR simply doesn't make any sense whatsoever, and even if it were true it doesn't mean a PC port "isn't viable", anyway -- GTA4 PC was, to begin with, little more than a dump of the X360 version, being completely unplayable on anything that less than a tri-core CPU (it's still a prime example of a sloppy PC port, but it's slightly better now than it was).

Well said.
 

SparkTR

Member
That's one possibility that did indeed occur to me.

The other possibility that occurred to me is that those Steam Gauge sales estimates aren't accurate.

I find the latter more believable, than the theory that millions of players buy Call of Duty on Steam every year, but just let it rot in their hard drive after installing it.

That's like saying because CS:GO isn't played much on consoles compared to PC then all console numbers must be off. CoD doesn't mean anything on PC these days, the audience has moved onto games like CS:GO, which has more concurrent players on Steam alone than EVERY version of BF4 combined during peak times.

The Steam Gauge numbers are sound at the moment, your logic is flawed. Especially since CoD Ghosts numbers aren't even on the fucking list, that required some real mental gymnastics.
 
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