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[Ape Gone Insane]

Result: No

• Yes - 45%
• No - 55%

Schedule

TV Schedule (10.40pm to 6am) - BBC 1, STV, ITV, STV Player, BBC iPlayer, TVCatchup, CSPAN 3 and scotlanddecides.com

• BBC - Huw Edwards presents live coverage from Glasgow as the votes are counted. BBC political editor Nick Robinson and Scotland 2014's Sarah Smith are on hand to provide expert commentary, and Jeremy Vine's virtual reality graphics analyse in detail how the vote is building up throughout the night. Our political correspondents are reporting live from every count in Scotland - led by Andrew Marr at the central count in Edinburgh. Andrew Neil has the reaction from Westminster and our political teams in Wales and Northern Ireland cover the impact this decision will have on the rest of the United Kingdom.
• STV - Hosted by political editor Bernard Ponsonby and TV and radio presenter Aasmah Mir with a panel of leading politicians, commentators and analysts, and STV’s news teams will report live from all 32 declarations across Scotland as they happen through the night. Guests in the studio include Peter MacMahon, the political editor of ITV Border, James Mitchell, chair of public policy at Edinburgh University and polling expert Rob Johns, of Essex University.

Results Schedule (Area, Registered Voters, Proportion of Electorate)

2:00am

• Western Isles (22,908 / 0.5%)
• Perth and Kinross (120,015 / 2.8%)
• Orkney Islands (17,515 / 0.41%)
• North Lanarkshire (268,697 / 6.27%)
• Moray (75,170 / 1.75%)
• Inverclyde (62,482 / 1.46%)
• East Lothian (81,931 / 1.9%)

2:30am

• Clackmannanshire (39,970 / 0.93%)

3:00am

• West Dunbartonshire (71,109 / 1.66%)
• Stirling (69,029 / 1.61%)
• South Lanarkshire (261,152 / 6.09%)
• Renfrewshire (134,737 / 3.14%)
• Falkirk (122,453 / 2.86%)
• East Renfrewshire (72,994 / 1.7%)
• East Ayrshire (99,662 / 2.33%)
• Dundee (118,721 / 2.77%)
• Dumfries and Galloway (124,956 / 2.92%)
• Angus (93,551 / 2.18%)
• Aberdeenshire (206,487 / 4.82%)

3:30am

• West Lothian (138,212 / 3.23%)
• South Ayrshire (94,888 / 2.21%)
• Shetland Islands (18,514 / 0.43%)
• Midlothian (69,613 / 1.62%)
• East Dunbartonshire (86,836 / 2.03%)
• Argyll and Bute (72,002 / 1.68%)

4:00am

• Highland (190,782 / 4.45%)
• Fife (302,108 / 7.05%)

4:30am

• North Ayrshire (113,924 / 2.66%)

5:00am

• Scottish Borders (95,533 / 2.23%)
• Glasgow (486,219 / 11.35%)
• Edinburgh (377,413 / 8.81%)

6:00am

• Aberdeen (175,740 / 4.1%)

Predictions (link):

70 NO 30 YES - Acorn
60 NO 40 YES - Seanbob11, fizzelopeguss, industrian
58 NO 42 YES - Busty, APZonerunner
57 NO 43 YES - CyclopsRock, RulkezX, abunai, Polari
56 NO 44 YES - Kotetsu534, Uzzy
55 NO 45 YES - Arksy, liquidtmd, i_am_ben, QuicheFontaine, maquiladora, Nicktendo86, Bubblicious
54 NO 46 YES - Osiris, BadHand, infi, cartesian, Camp Freddie, Mastadon, Willy Wanka, Vivalaraza, elty, gollumsluvslave
53 NO 47 YES - AHA-Lambda, Rodhull, Irminsul, CRD90, amchardy, Crab
52 NO 48 YES - JonathanEx, Panelbase, Zeeman
51 NO 49 YES - _DrMario_, SlickShoes, chancellor
51 YES 49 NO - Ashes, shorty_symd, killer_clank, CharmingCharlie, Sir Fragula, ANuclearError, Mr RHC,
52 YES 48 NO - Masquerader, Kathian, nelsonroyale, Kinky John, Pankratous
53 YES 47 NO - Randomizer
54 YES 46 NO - Faddy, Gumball, Sage00, Nilaul
56 YES 44 NO - jimbor
57 YES 43 NO - 8bit

Summary

The Scottish Independence Referendum will be a national poll that asks its citizens whether Scotland should become a country independent of the United Kingdom. Scotland previously existed as an independent sovereign state for 800 years from the Early Middle Ages to 1707, when it united with England to form the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707. However, since then there has been a growing political force that has been pushing for independence. This has been partially successful so far in the formation of the Scottish Parliament and greater powers transferred from Westminister, but the push right now is for full autonomy and separation.

The Yes Vote

Reasons

• Self-determination
• Defence spending and nuclear disarmament
• Oil
• Renewable energy
• A more autonomous presence on the world stage

Parties

• Scottish National Party
• Scottish Green Party
• Scottish Socialist Party
• Solidarity

Key Resources

• Scotland's Future - Makes the case for independence, described as the "most comprehensive blueprint for an independent country ever published".
• Yes Scotland

The No Vote

Reasons

• Preserving existing historical, cultural and economic links
• Better together: strong international influence, decreasing oil reserves, public spending concerns
• Uncertainty: EU membership, key business migration and currency union

Parties

• Conservative Party
• Labour Party
• Liberal Democrats
• UK Independence Party
• British National Party
• National Front (NF)
• Britain First
• Scottish Unionist Party
• Respect Party
• Ulster unionist

Key Resources

• Better Together

Polling Data

2014 Results, 2013 Results and 2012 Results.

 

[Aegus]

One thing I find amusing about the whole EU thing from the No side is that the UK government are seemingly hellbent on taking us out of Europe anyway.

So to me it's not a valid argument from the No side.

 

[Spineker]

Take back your freedom, Scotland.

 

[Dazzler]

as an Irish person, I don't understand why anyone in Scotland would vote no

Run your own country, ignore the scaremongering

when will you get this chance again?

 

[doniewhalberg]

I'll be voting no. I really have no stake in the whole scottish/english/british heritage side of things, I can only ever think about the vote based on how it'll affect my family's quality of life, now and in the future. Currently in a unique position of being the full time carer for my partner who is wheelchair bound due to MS, so we are very dependent income wise on the government, and I have a six year old to consider too. I honestly think for my benefit, the benefit for our family as a whole, and for the future of my kid, we're in a safer position as part of Britain and under the British government, mostly down to the white paper and the projected plans of how we would *do* independence. That's about it though, to each their own, I can't say my reasoning would apply to everyone, and there will be people who would benefit if it's a yes I guess. Majority will decide and we'll go from there.

 

[Masquerader]

I'm bored of 'Britain', Scotland. Vote Aye, so that you can annoy Cameron.

Just remember that you're being leeched on, and that even if you vote no, they'll still do that to y'all. If you vote no, do so on account of finding Salmond to be a moron, which he is. Put the Yes vote on hold that way.

 

[8bit]

Can you frame those poll results in some sort of context? Are they the most recent polls chronologically descending or what exactly?

Anyway, I'm an ex-pat hopeful for a Yes as my politic tends towards a Green/CND anti-Monarchist stance. That said, I don't have a vote (which I have no problem with).

 

[StealthGoblin]

I'd also add in 'Business' under the uncertainty in the no section.

Some banks have indicated they'd move all of their HQ's or positions from Scotland into England in the result of a Yes vote.

I don't know the details exactly, but doesn't the UK government own a significant amount of RBS? In the event of a 'yes' vote would Scottish people feel comfortable that the UK retained a lions share of their biggest bank?

I have the position of 'I don't care' in this debate so I don't have a horse in it.

 

[Ape Gone Insane]

Can you frame those poll results in some sort of context? Are they the most recent polls chronologically descending or what exactly?

Anyway, I'm an ex-pat hopeful for a Yes as my politic tends towards a Green/CND anti-Monarchist stance. That said, I don't have a vote (which I have no problem with).

This forum software isn't very kind on the formatting of tables. They were taken from here and are in descending order: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#2014

 

[sangreal]

Uncertainty: EU membership and currency union

Shouldn't this be under Yes?

There's an absolute shit-ton of information on the internet hence the sparse nature of the OT. My main aim is to get the ball rolling on discussion.

There is an extensive discussion here, FYI: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=842465

 

[Tadaima]

One thing I find amusing about the whole EU thing from the No side is that the UK government are seemingly hellbent on taking us out of Europe anyway.

So to me it's not a valid argument from the No side.

The UK Government has no serious intention of leaving the EU. It has been fighting against having every power centralised (with various degrees of effectiveness), since the UK has been getting the shorter end of the stick from some angles.

There may or may not be a separate referendum on EU membership in the future (pushed by Conservatives and Nationalists), but let's face it: the UK is not leaving. Even Cameron praises the importance of the UK's position within the EU and the benefits it brings.

The sad truth is that if Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, they also leave the European Union on that very same day.

 

[Currygan]

I say, go for it. Never used GB to tell where I'm from tho, so I'm cool

 

[Ape Gone Insane]

Shouldn't this be under Yes?


There is an extensive discussion here, FYI: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=842465

Why would the uncertainty that would be created over whether an independent Scotland could retain the current currency be a reason to vote yes?

That's okay but I want to have a thread whose OP I can extensively update in the upcoming weeks.

 

[Walshicus]

One thing I find amusing about the whole EU thing from the No side is that the UK government are seemingly hellbent on taking us out of Europe anyway.

So to me it's not a valid argument from the No side.

Junker seems pretty happy to fast-track Scotland from within anyway.

I don't think I need to restate my opposition to the UK anymore...

 

[8bit]

The sad truth is that if Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, they also leave the European Union on that very same day.

And this is based on what? As I understand it no-one knows because the UK Government refuse to discuss the event of a Yes vote with anyone so until that time it's an unknown.

 

[Walshicus]

And this is based on what? As I understand it no-one knows because the UK Government refuse to discuss the event of a Yes vote with anyone so until that time it's an unknown.

It's based on FUD. There's no precedent for stripping EU citizenry when said citizenry's government doesn't wish for it. At worst you'll have Scots spend a year or two under a "Special Partnership Arrangement" while they cross the "i"s and dot the "t"s. Any other scenario is just scaremongering and not worthy of serious consideration.

 

[Salvadora]

There may or may not be a separate referendum on EU membership in the future (pushed by Conservatives and Nationalists), but let's face it: the UK is not leaving. Even Cameron praises the importance of the UK's position within the EU and the benefits it brings.

Wouldn't be so sure that the Government would win that referendum.

 

[Seanbob11]

Never going to happen. Id be interested to see how many of those votes are under 18's.

We all know Braveheart will be in the night before trying to stir the youngins to vote yes.

 

[Tadaima]

And this is based on what? As I understand it no-one knows because the UK Government refuse to discuss the event of a Yes vote with anyone so until that time it's an unknown.

It is unprecedented, but its status would need to be renegotiated with the EU. Scotland wouldn't be part of the member state anymore. Perhaps the same terms can be secured (if Scotland is extremely lucky), but we can't possibly know the outcome. There is no doubt that Scotland will re-join the EU. But this uncertainty, and a more-or-less guaranteed worse deal in the best case scenario, is certainly not a reason to vote "Yes."

 

[Kabouter]

A more autonomous presence on the world stage

I would argue no presence on the world stage.

 

[Walshicus]

Wouldn't be so sure that the Government would win that referendum.

You're right. We've had too many media untruths over too many years to discount the possibility that the English public will vote to leave the EU.

If Scots want to stay in the EU then clinging to the UK's corpse is not the way to ensure it.

I would argue no presence on the world stage.

They have *no* presence as it stands. Independence strengthens their position because Westminster never promotes their interests over London's anyway.

 

[genjiZERO]

You know, it's probably a poor economic choice (and will create a legal nightmare), but I kinda hope it goes through. It would be a great signifier for other places - Catalonia, Corsica, etc - and their independence movements.

 

[Ikuu]

Never going to happen. Id be interested to see how many of those votes are under 18's.

We all know Braveheart will be in the night before trying to stir the youngins to vote yes.

Pretty sure No is more popular with younger voters.

 

[Tadaima]

Wouldn't be so sure that the Government would win that referendum.

Well, the latest polls lean heavily towards a "Stay" vote, and member states are still at a relatively disappointing point in terms of EU membership. So I'd say a "Stay" result is looking good. And that's if we ever get another referendum on it.

For the record, the UK had a referendum on this back in the 70s (when it was the EEC), and they stayed. There's been debate about this for decades. But we should probably get back to the topic.

 

[Patryn]

If this fails in a close vote, when would the next opportunity be for the independence forces to bring the issue back up?

 

[8bit]

If this fails in a close vote, when would the next opportunity be for the independence forces to bring the issue back up?

If you believe Alistair Carmichael's recent interview, never.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/polit...le-scotlands-future-once-and-for-all.24865471

 

[Seanbob11]

Pretty sure No is more popular with younger voters.

Really? Would seem foolish of the SNP to push through legislation that wouldn't aid there vote. Why not leave it as it was?

 

[Real Hero]

Do it Scotland, now is your chance

 

[Salvadora]

Well, the latest polls lean heavily towards a "Stay" vote, and member states are still at a relatively disappointing point in terms of EU membership. So I'd say a "Stay" result is looking good. And that's if we ever get another referendum on it.

For the record, the UK had a referendum on this back in the 70s (when it was the EEC), and they stayed. There's been debate about this for decades. But we should probably get back to the topic.

But the political landscape has changed greatly since the 70s and there is much discontent within the country today about the EU.

The rise of UKIP shows that in spades.

Anyway, think it's very much on topic considering how contentious the issue of EU membership is to Scottish independence.

 

[RedShift]

If this fails in a close vote, when would the next opportunity be for the independence forces to bring the issue back up?

I would guess a No vote would settle the issue for at least 40 years or so.

 

[Acosta]

I would argue no presence on the world stage.

A bit is more than zero. But yeah, not much.

I'm pretty sure it will be a stay. It's going to be "hilarious" if EU is a factor for Scotland staying and then seeing UK leaving the union.

 

[Lo-Volt]

If this fails in a close vote, when would the next opportunity be for the independence forces to bring the issue back up?

Forgive me, I'm the American who watches from afar with interest.

I think it depends on the SNP's ability to maintain its majority in the Scottish Parliament. A consistently good showing for them might become part of the moral case for a renewed push, since the fundamental goal of the SNP is sovereignty. But generally speaking, an idea that's rejected in a referendum stays that way for a long time. I personally think decades, and some new form of devolution (the continued transfer of powers from the central government to the constituent nations) might also alleviate some of the pressure.

I also recall polling from the 2010 general election that implied that Scottish voters would be more supportive of seeking independence if Britain elected the Conservatives (which they kind of did, with this coalition government). Scots more often prefer Labour to the Conservatives, and might be less unfriendly to the union if the center-left governs it again. (And they might; Labour is ahead in national polling in the UK, though the lead is slim.)

 

[QuicheFontaine]

as an Irish person, I don't understand why anyone in Scotland would vote no

Run your own country, ignore the scaremongering

when will you get this chance again?

Probably in about 18yrs time?

I mean:

Scottish Independent Referendum - 1979

<18 years pass>

Scottish Devolution Referendum - 1997

<17 years pass>

Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014

So.... if it is a No vote (extremely likely at this point), they're on course to have another one in about 2032. This ain't the be-all end-all Scottish Independence vote.

 

[daviyoung]

Hasn't a chance, but good luck to the Roundheads.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

We need this you guys...

 

[8bit]

Forgive me, I'm the American who watches from afar with interest.

I think it depends on the SNP's ability to maintain its majority in the Scottish Parliament. A consistently good showing for them might become part of the moral case for a renewed push, since the fundamental goal of the SNP is sovereignty. But generally speaking, an idea that's rejected in a referendum stays that way for a long time. I personally think decades, and some new form of devolution (the continued transfer of powers from the central government to the constituent nations) might also alleviate some of the pressure.

I also recall polling from the 2010 general election that implied that Scottish voters would be more supportive of seeking independence if Britain elected the Conservatives (which they kind of did, with this coalition government). Scots more often prefer Labour to the Conservatives, and might be less unfriendly to the union if the center-left governs it again. (And they might; Labour is ahead in national polling in the UK, though the lead is slim.)

"Scottish" Labour is a joke. It's one party across the UK trying to look leftwise outside England and increasingly rightwards within. A Yes vote would hopefully restore a real Scottish Labour Party aligned with the politics of John Smith & Keir Hardie and not those of Blair & Miliband.

 

[Tadaima]

But the political landscape has changed greatly since the 70s and there is much discontent within the country today about the EU.

The rise of UKIP shows that in spades.

(Note: this reply is discussing the UK's membership within the EU &#8211; not Scotland's within the UK)

All we have to go by are polls. And polls are showing "Stay" as the outcome right now.

If it ever happens, British businesses will get behind a "Stay" vote and push for it. A "Leave" vote will never get through if a referendum ever happens. This is universal throughout the UK &#8211; not limited to England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or elsewhere.

 

[Stinkles]

All we have to go by are polls. And polls are showing "Stay" as the outcome right now.

If it ever happens, British businesses will get behind a "Stay" vote and push for it. A "Leave" vote will never get through if a referendum ever happens. This is universal throughout the UK – not limited to England, Scotland, or Northern Ireland.

Sure, but we're also just one stirring speech by Sean Connery from a LEAVE vote.


It would have been Mel Gibson but the content of his speeches recently might be unhelpful.

 

[Lo-Volt]

"Scottish" Labour is a joke. It's one party across the UK trying to look leftwise outside England and increasingly rightwards within. A Yes vote would hopefully restore a real Scottish Labour Party aligned with the politics of John Smith & Keir Hardie and not those of Blair & Miliband.

Which is why I said "less unfriendly". Labour treated Scotland like its rotten borough (or its electoral fortress, since it can make up for its performance in England) and the SNP has been taking advantage of that attitude for a long time.

But what happens to the SNP in Scotland if the referendum fails? If the ultimate goal is sovereignty and the country votes no, the issue is "gone" for a long time (referenda are once-in-a-generation). Do people stop voting for it in Holyrood elections, even though the SNP also stands for other values besides just independence?

 

[Tadaima]

Sure, but we're also just one stirring speech by Sean Connery from a LEAVE vote.


It would have been Mel Gibson but the content of his speeches recently might be unhelpful.

Sorry &#8211; to clarify, I'm talking about the UK's position within the EU.

Perhaps we should clarify this in our posts before things get messy.

 

[OverlordSteph]

I've read what the Scottish National Party have said about independence, they actually believe that Scotland can survive off oil in the North Sea, its a joke. When that oil runs out i would love to see how they will survive. And on top of that they will lose the Pound Sterling which will be an utter disaster for them.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Well, the latest polls lean heavily towards a "Stay" vote, and member states are still at a relatively disappointing point in terms of EU membership. So I'd say a "Stay" result is looking good. And that's if we ever get another referendum on it.

For the record, the UK had a referendum on this back in the 70s (when it was the EEC), and they stayed. There's been debate about this for decades. But we should probably get back to the topic.

"Lean heavily"? Are you just looking at the polls for renegotiated terms?

The wikipedia page for standard polling on EU membership lists 25 polls conducted in 2014, with "stay" varying from 33-54% and "leave" varying from 36-49%. I'd call it anyone's guess at this point.

 

[Stinkles]

I've read what the Scottish National Party have said about independence, they actually believe that Scotland can survive off oil in the North Sea, its a joke. When that oil runs out i would love to see how they will survive. And on top of that they will lose the Pound Sterling which will be an utter disaster for them.

Sounds like you have no clue whatsoever about what you are talking about. Can you think of any small northern European countries that are happy and successful without any oil or pound sterling?

 

[kmag]

I would argue no presence on the world stage.

That's hardly a bad thing. You don't see New Zealand or Ireland chuntering on about lack of influence which in the UK case seems to only count for doing whatever it is the US wants and occasionally bombing the shit out of foreigners.

 

[Stinkles]

That's hardly a bad thing. You don't see New Zealand or Ireland chuntering on about lack of influence which in the UK case seems to only count for doing whatever it is the US wants and occasionally bombing the shit out of foreigners.

Cynical and awful as this sounds, those two countries are also ignored by foreign terrorists and a lot of criminal syndicates too.

 

[Addnan]

Vote yes Scotland. Get away from Westminster while you have the chance to.

 

[8bit]

Which is why I said "less unfriendly". Labour treated Scotland like its rotten borough (or its electoral fortress, since it can make up for its performance in England) and the SNP has been taking advantage of that attitude for a long time.

But what happens to the SNP in Scotland if the referendum fails? If the ultimate goal is sovereignty and the country votes no, the issue is "gone" for a long time (referenda are once-in-a-generation). Do people stop voting for it in Holyrood elections, even though the SNP also stands for other values besides just independence?

Well, they're in majority at Holyrood and even with a No vote I wouldn't expect that to change much. They've done a lot of good for Scotland socially but I get the impression a lot of people are happy with those arrangements and don't want to go further.

I've read what the Scottish National Party have said about independence, they actually believe that Scotland can survive off oil in the North Sea, its a joke. When that oil runs out i would love to see how they will survive. And on top of that they will lose the Pound Sterling which will be an utter disaster for them.

There's still oil being discovered in the Shetland areas, and what about the rumoured fields in the Clyde? IIRC the SNP numbers also show Scotland could survive without the oil anyway. There's more to this than oil.

 

[BertramCooper]

As an American with tenuous ancestral ties to Scotland who has been watching this debate quite closely, I'm puzzled by the choice to maintain the English monarch in the "Yes" plan.

Strategically, I can understand why they would do it, considering the monarchy is still surprisingly popular in Scotland, but from a purely ideological standpoint, it seems to undermine the very purpose of Scottish independence.

Should Scotland choose independence (as unlikely as it seems), I would hope they'd eventually get rid of the monarchy, just as I hope Canada, Australia, and New Zealand eventually get rid of it.

 

[Tadaima]

"Lean heavily"? Are you just looking at the polls for renegotiated terms?

The wikipedia page for standard polling on EU membership lists 25 polls conducted in 2014, with "stay" varying from 33-54% and "leave" varying from 36-49%. I'd call it anyone's guess at this point.

Approximately 2/3 of the 2014 polls from that Wikipedia page are "Stay" wins. If a referendum happens, nobody is going to let a "Leave" vote through. The UK already leans to "Stay," despite current times being a low point of EU membership from the perspective of many UK citizens.

With the weight of economic partners (such as the US) and huge domestic businesses and overseas trading partners behind "Stay" (including parent companies of the media outlets which love to toy with the idea), "Leave" will never get through. It's not even worth talking about.

 

[daviyoung]

As an American with tenuous ancestral ties to Scotland who has been watching this debate quite closely, I'm puzzled by the choice to maintain the English monarch in the "Yes" plan.

Strategically, I can understand why they would do it, considering the monarchy is still surprisingly popular in Scotland, but from a purely ideological standpoint, it seems to undermine the very purpose of Scottish independence.

Should Scotland choose independence (as unlikely as it seems), I would hope they'd eventually get rid of the monarchy, just as I hope Canada, Australia, and New Zealand eventually get rid of it.

Balmoral probably brings in a good amount of tourists and where else would the wee royal bairns go to university if not St Andrews?