August 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 9th

[360] 50K
[3DS] 95K
[PS3] 35K
[PS4] 205K
[WIU] 70K
[XB1] 140K

Well I didn't do very well with my first attempt a few months back, here's hoping this one is a little better.

Edit: Changed a few numbers.
 
I figured I'd clarify on my comments on the XB1 this month: Since the Madden bundle came out, it has been the primary sku sold for the system... but it wasn't like, over and above the usual numbers. What we've been seeing is that people buying the system this month just opted for that bundle instead, so it was in effect 'replacing' the sales, not ratcheting them up/doubling them. Still doing pretty well, though, as far as XB1 sales go. Just wanted to add some clarity.
 
Abdiel said:
I figured I'd clarify on my comments on the XB1 this month: Since the Madden bundle came out, it has been the primary sku sold for the system... but it wasn't like, over and above the usual numbers. What we've been seeing is that people buying the system this month just opted for that bundle instead, so it was in effect 'replacing' the sales, not ratcheting them up/doubling them. Still doing pretty well, though, as far as XB1 sales go. Just wanted to add some clarity.
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Sounds about right and matches up with some peolle saying the madden bundle has done well albeit at the expense of the regular X1 which doesn't really help much (unless sales would have been even lower without it).
 
dam almost forgot about this, b/c of the buy a Xbone get a free game campaign i'm assuming they lost by at least 60k

[360] 46K
[3DS] 98K
[PS3] 32K
[PS4] 196K
[WIU] 47K
[XB1] 122K
 
[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 165k
[3DS] 100k
[WIU] 71k
[360] 50k
[PS3] 30k

August is usualy little slower month but I think that first real current gen Madden pushed some consoles so PS4 and Xbone should still be little up compared to july (Xbone more because of Madden bundle and PS4 less because of Destiny bundle coming in september).
 
Ok let's see how I fare this time. Honestly I'm far more interested in the September NPD numbers at this point with the Destiny release. Should be fascinating to see how much the release affects console sales for both platforms.

[PS4] 192K
[XB1] 143K
[3DS] 98K
[WIU] 61K
[360] 49K
[PS3] 31K


Wow I actually came pretty damn close last month

RexNovis said:
PS4 - 214K
WIU - 80K
XB1 - 126K
360 - 45K
3DS - 103K
PS3 - 33K
Click to expand...

Actual NPD numbers for July
PS4 - 187K
XB1 - 131k
3DS - 108k
Wii U - 81k
360 - 54k
PS3 - 32k

Outside of an overshot on the PS4 numbers and an undershot on 360 they were pretty spot on. Woot!
 
I guess I could post my early thoughts should forget because of the Apple event.

[360] 53K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 32K
[PS4] 200K
[WIU] 70K
[XB1] 145K

While graphing older 360 sales I noticed July-August seemed quite flat, but I guessed the lack of NCAA could have made July worse than normal. I also like being positive.
PS3 and 360 as you may know took a lot of time and effort to predict :P

Edit: 3DS down 15K. Previous trends seem to indicate it can be the worst month ever and I feel too optimistic.
 
In July 2014 NPD Mario Kart 8 dropped off significantly from its May 2014 + June 2014 split launch.

Let's see if it will drop off even further this month, or if it will hold its ground.
 
Aquamarine said:
In July 2014 NPD Mario Kart 8 dropped off significantly from its May 2014 + June 2014 split launch.

Let's see if it will drop off even further this month, or if it will hold its ground.
Click to expand...

I wonder if we'll ever see a sales effect from the DLC offering since it's quite compelling value-wise. Although I think the DLC is supposed to come out November of this year and May 2015? So probably not for a while I guess
 
SwiftDeath said:
I wonder if we'll ever see a sales effect from the DLC offering since it's quite compelling value-wise. Although I think the DLC is supposed to come out November of this year and May 2015? So probably not for a while I guess
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Well hopefully we'll see a GTA effect (i.e. a recurring ~100K per month legs).

Right now we're right around that juncture, but if August 2014 significantly drops below 100K I would be very worried for Nintendo...considering MK8 is supposed to be their tentpole.

Then again you're right, we'll see some revitalisation around the holiday season. For the Wii U's sake, I sure hope so.
 
Aquamarine said:
Well hopefully we'll see a GTA effect (i.e. a recurring ~100K per month legs).

Right now we're right around that juncture, but if August 2014 significantly drops below 100K I would be very worried for Nintendo...considering MK8 is supposed to be their tentpole.

Then again you're right, we'll see some revitalisation around the holiday season. For the Wii U's sake, I sure hope so.
Click to expand...

Hmm well Nintendo's DLC rollout seems a smart, conservative approach. Assuming sales falter for the game in August/September, then spend the late half of October/early November advertising the new DLC about to come out combined perhaps with early SMB advertising?

I think Nintendo will have "good" holiday sales for Wii U and MK8 although no idea what I actually think that means numerically at this point
 
SwiftDeath said:
Hmm well Nintendo's DLC rollout seems a smart, conservative approach. Assuming sales falter for the game in August/September, then spend the late half of October/early November advertising the new DLC about to come out combined perhaps with early SMB advertising?

I think Nintendo will have "good" holiday sales for Wii U and MK8 although no idea what I actually think that means numerically at this point
Click to expand...

Mario Kart 8 standalone jumped from 353K May -> 401K June -> sub-150K July, so I'd like to see that launch demand realised again this holiday season.

If we only get a small jump...like 100K September to 200K November...that would also be quite worrying.

It also depends on how much NOA wants to push it.
 
Jomjom said:
http://venturebeat.com/2014/09/08/a...-in-august-xbox-one-and-wii-u-both-saw-gains/

Just saw this article. I'm assuming these are just Pachter's predictions, but the article makes it sound as if they are fact.
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"Sony sold approximately 175,000 PS4s in the U.S. last month. That’s a 14 percent drop from the previous month."

What a pathetic distortion of Pachter's estimates.

We know from relative tracking of his numbers that some GAFfers routinely perform better than him.
 
Aquamarine said:
"Sony sold approximately 175,000 PS4s in the U.S. last month. That’s a 14 percent drop from the previous month."

What a pathetic distortion of Pachter's estimates.

We know from relative tracking of his numbers that some GAFfers routinely perform better than him.
Click to expand...

Yeah the article is awkward as hell. Some are quotes from Pachter with him clearly stating that they are his predictions. But then you get lines like that where it's not quoted and just presented as fact by the writer of the article. I dunno if he has advance info from NPD or is just presenting Pachter's info. So confusing.

Also poorly researched as he states that the PS4 has outsold the Xbox One every month since the launch, even though Xbox One outsold the PS4 in December (I think?) when PS4 stocks were low.
 
Jomjom said:
Yeah the article is awkward as hell. Some are quotes from Pachter with him clearly stating that they are his predictions. But then you get lines like that where it's not quoted and just presented as fact by the writer of the article. I dunno if he has advance info from NPD or is just presenting Pachter's info. So confusing.

Also poorly researched as he states that the PS4 has outsold the Xbox One every month since the launch, even though Xbox One outsold the PS4 in December (I think?) when PS4 stocks were low.
Click to expand...


I assume it's tailored in that way to get the most clicks.

All the figures in that article come from Pachter's regular data estimations.


He conducts a small survey of channel checks from a variety of USA retailers and formulates predictions based on that + NPD precedent.

Aquamarine said:
Pachter's predictions:


PS4 - 175K
XBO - 150K
3DS - 90K
WIU - 65K
360 - 45K
PS3 - 30K

PSV - 15K
WII - 12.5K
DS - 0.5K
Click to expand...

What the author of this article fails to understand is that Pachter is nowhere near definitive on the matter.

GAFfers have also made this mistake in the past when they would create threads dedicated to reporting Pachter's predictions.


And yes, you're correct. PS4 sold 863K in December 2013 while XBO sold 908K.
 
Jomjom said:
[PS4] 175k
[XB1] 190k
[3DS] 110k
[WIU] 80k
[360] 50k
[PS3] 15k
[PSV] 15
Click to expand...

lol

giphy.gif
 
RealityPales said:
lol

giphy.gif
Click to expand...

Well it looks like Pachter's sources are telling him that the PS4's sales dropped while the Xbone's sales increased. I'm just betting that the Xbone's sales increased a little more and the PS4's dropped a little more than he predicted.

My reasoning:

1) Free Madden is a powerful thing
2) People holding off with White PS4 on the horizon
3) Should be more Bungie fans on the Xbox side and more of them are upgrading in preparation for Destiny
 
Jomjom said:
Well it looks like Pachter's sources are telling him that the PS4's sales dropped while the Xbone's sales increased. I'm just betting that the Xbone's sales increased a little more and the PS4's dropped a little more than he predicted.

My reasoning:

1) Free Madden is a powerful thing
2) People holding off with White PS4 on the horizon
3) Should be more Bungie fans on the Xbox side and more of them are upgrading in preparation for Destiny
Click to expand...

Amazon US has been 100% accurate so far predicting the winner for the NPDs this console generation.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-08/videogames?tag=viglink129408-20

# 5: Playstation 4
#11: Playstation 4 Destiny Bundle
#49: Xbox One Madden NFL 15 Bundle
#52: Xbox One
#74: Xbox One Limited Edition Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare Bundle
 
Jomjom said:
Well it looks like Pachter's sources are telling him that the PS4's sales dropped while the Xbone's sales increased. I'm just betting that the Xbone's sales increased a little more and the PS4's dropped a little more than he predicted.

My reasoning:

1) Free Madden is a powerful thing
2) People holding off with White PS4 on the horizon
3) Should be more Bungie fans on the Xbox side and more of them are upgrading in preparation for Destiny
Click to expand...

Now this was an online survey so take from it what you will.

http://wccftech.com/survey-destiny-fans-game-ps4-majority/

Point 1. I doubt that it moved anymore systems than Xbox One was already moving. A more likely scenario would be consumers opting to purchase rather than a stand alone system.

Point 2. The white ps4 destiny bundle has been available sine early June. On amazon, at least, it has been outselling the Xbox One core SKU for every month following.

Point 3. Refer to the link provided
 
[360] 58K
[3DS] 102K
[PS3] 32K
[PS4] 194K
[WIU] 76K
[XB1] 148K

Really don't know how it's going to turn out, but guessing September is going to be massive for that White Destiny bundle @_@
 
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