August 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 9th

Aquamarine said:
"I'm getting sick and tired of Aquamarine's supposedly 'funny' cryptic posts."

"I hope someday there will be another guy giving out the numbers, who isn't such a huge attention whore and just leaves out the whole teasing, ambiguity and long waiting times and instead cuts right to the chase....urgh I'm getting annoyed because I'm tired, I'm out."


And other drama! It's amusing to watch!
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Come on, now you have to show us their reactions to creamsugar!
 
KillerMan91 said:
Speaking about chartzzz they don't even have August numbers yet as they are missing final week of august lol. Maybe they are waiting for NPD numbers this time and releasing their own numbers after that (like they always do with their weekly japanese numbers, releasing them after Media Create)
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Maybe they saw their place in our prediction league ;)
 
jvm said:
Tables sorted by YTD 2014 column.

PeQhyrV.png
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Awesome! Looks like 0.3 million pounds is the floor and revenue can't go below that: P
michaelius said:
Maybe they saw their place in our prediction league ;)
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Ah, so the last week's sales will go up or down (I haven't seen their predictions yet) by like 100% to match NPD.
 
Aquamarine said:
"I'm getting sick and tired of Aquamarine's supposedly 'funny' cryptic posts."

"I hope someday there will be another guy giving out the numbers, who isn't such a huge attention whore and just leaves out the whole teasing, ambiguity and long waiting times and instead cuts right to the chase....urgh I'm getting annoyed because I'm tired, I'm out."


And other drama! It's amusing to watch!
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Haha oh my that's rich. The irony of chartz posters waiting on another forums leakers for sales numbers.

When your own posters don't believe your site, you should really stop.

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Also for a new page

SwiftDeath said:
Time until PR usually comes out

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3 hours left, so exciting.

You guys snacking on anything? I remember there was a discussion about what type of food you're having for E3 and there were tons of interesting answers.
 
Rymuth said:
3 hours left, so exciting.

You guys snacking on anything? I remember there was a discussion about what type of food you're having for E3 and there were tons of interesting answers.
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I've had no food since yesterday evening.

It's now 3:26 PM.

Don't remind me of food.
 
KillerMan91 said:
3 hours until we start to wait for extra 6 h before first numbers leak. That is the reality of NPD threads nowadays.
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This is true although I wouldn't be surprised if the wait was a tad bit easier this month than last as we move further away from the gamecrate incident

Aquamarine said:
I've had no food since yesterday evening.

It's now 3:26 PM.

Don't remind me of food.
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:(

Not to judge but it's important to eat regularly for your blood sugar and state of mind

shwimpy said:
Any chance Xbone outsells PS4 due to the Madden bundle?
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Sure it has a nonzero chance of happening although I really wouldn't bet on it
 
Aquamarine said:
I believe Mr. Greenberg wouldn't have made this comment:

X3Xm18A.png


...if that were the case.
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lol. i mean that's one way to look at things now. they were posting every month about their #1 for 360. now it's all about concentrating during the period that counts. blackfriday month will be amazing
 
Aw too late to make the predictions.

Really think XB1 will outsell PS4 this month. Madden bundle (the only relevant game in August) + general sales on the console are going to do more than what most people think.
 
allan-bh said:
Real fun will be NPD september.

Tonight I'm curious to see if Madden bundle helped the Xbox One.
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The PS4 will absolutely demolish Xbone in September, the real fun IMO is months Novemember and December, basically holiday season, which if I had to guess would be when most people buy consoles.

I am assuming Madden did not help that much.
 
WaffleTaco said:
The PS4 will absolutely demolish Xbone in September, the real fun IMO is months Novemember and December, basically holiday season, which if I had to guess would be when most people buy consoles.

I am assuming Madden did not help that much.
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The magnitude of the demolition might cause some meltdowns. Especially if software sales show that Bungie sold better on playstation.
 
darkside31337 said:
Aw too late to make the predictions.

Really think XB1 will outsell PS4 this month. Madden bundle (the only relevant game in August) + general sales on the console are going to do more than what most people think.
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August Week 1

PS4 - 7th
XB1 KL - 49th
Madden XB1 Preorder - >100th

August Week 2

PS4 - 6th
XB1 KL - 51st
Madden XB1 Preorder - >100th

August Week 3

PS4 - 5th
XB1 KL - 58th
Madden XB1 Preorder - 35th

August Week 4 - Madden Releases

PS4 - 14th
XB1 KL - >100th
Madden XB1 - 31st

It's obvious that introduction of the Madden SKU cannibalized sales of the regular KL SKU as makes perfect sense. Furthermore at no time did XB1 SKUs get close to the PS4 SKU in ranking
 
SwiftDeath said:
This is true although I wouldn't be surprised if the wait was a tad bit easier this month than last as we move further away from the gamecrate incident
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Let's hope so. Last time I went to bed after the release of data as nothing was leaked in a hour or so and it was pretty late around here (2.30 AM). Then I woke up and checked if we at least have some numbers and still got nothing...
 
Oh wow it's NPD day? Completely slipped my radar. Like others for some reason I thought the numbers were next week. Love NPD day. It always provides me with a night's entertainment (the NPD threads are always reliably amazing) and it's exciting waiting for Aqua or Cream Sugar to leak the numbers.

So PR hits around 11pm GMT right? 2 hours from now? And then it's usually a few hours later we get the numbers. Correct?
 
lightning2k3 said:
The magnitude of the demolition might cause some meltdowns. Especially if software sales show that Bungie sold better on playstation.
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I am not sure why people would even be surprised. Destiny has the bundle and the marketing for Sony, also for the first week of September and currently it shows both the Destiny bundle and regular PS4 is outselling Xbone.
 
WaffleTaco said:
I am not sure why people would even be surprised. Destiny has the bundle and the marketing for Sony, also for the first week of September and currently it shows both the Destiny bundle and regular PS4 is outselling Xbone.
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If Amazon were to be wrong 1 month, would we still rely on it? I mean it only counts for 5% of the sales.
 
WaffleTaco said:
I am not sure why people would even be surprised. Destiny has the bundle and the marketing for Sony, also for the first week of September and currently it shows both the Destiny bundle and regular PS4 is outselling Xbone.
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Yeah. Completely agree. The deal Sony have with Destiny is very similar to the deal Microsoft has with Call of Duty and if we use the latter as an example for comparison Call of Duty always sold better on the 360 throughout the entirety of the last generation. Destiny's not exclusive to PlayStation by any means but it's the closest you can get to exclusivity to ensure sales are marginally higher on your console. Sony has pushed Destiny hard from the very beginning with the content deals and promoting the game at events like E3 and I think all of that energy and effort is going to pay dividends with Destiny selling much more on the PS4.

I'd even go so far as to say the split will be 60/40 or potentially even 70/30 in favour of PlayStation.
 
IndoAssassin said:
If Amazon were to be wrong 1 month, would we still rely on it?
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It's an interesting question. As Amazon is a bestseller's list [i.e. ranking of sales] and as Amazon is solely an online retailer with I think less than 10% [maybe around 6% or 7%] of the US videogame retail marketshare, it is very possible that consumer sales behavior as depicted by said bestseller's list wouldn't indicate larger trends.

Thus it is up to each individual to determine how valuable Amazon data is. I personally find it fascinating and would love to try and create some model to at least to some extent correlate software sales of a game with Amazon ranking to see how closely it follows but that's far too much work then I would actually do for this.
 
Ghost_Messiah said:
Yeah. Completely agree. The deal Sony have with Destiny is very similar to the deal Microsoft has with Call of Duty and if we use the latter as an example for comparison Call of Duty always sold better on the 360 throughout the entirety of the last generation. Destiny's not exclusive to PlayStation by any means but it's the closest you can get to exclusivity to ensure sales are marginally higher on your console. Sony has pushed Destiny hard from the very beginning with the content deals and promoting the game at events like E3 and I think all of that energy and effort is going to pay dividends with Destiny selling much more on the PS4.

I'd even go so far as to say the split will be 60/40 or potentially even 70/30 in favour of PlayStation.
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yah but considering the attachment rate being higher on XB1 than PS4, I think a 55/45 split is more reasonable. If you exclude the bundle.
 
IndoAssassin said:
If Amazon were to be wrong 1 month, would we still rely on it? I mean it only counts for 5% of the sales.
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I have no data to back this up, only intuition, but Amazon seems to serve as a sample of the larger public's buying tendencies. The average Amazon customer is likely the same as the average customer, but more internet-connected for obvious reasons. Since gamers tend to be internet-connected (or however you'd term this) it has and will continue to serve as a pretty good benchmark. From what we've observed, it seems safe to assume that the purchasing tendencies of Amazon customers when it comes to video games reflect, in broad strokes, the purchasing tendencies of the public at large.

Just to clarify, Amazon.com's bestseller rankings, etc. are US only right? Because the list is different for, say, Amazon.co.uk?
 
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