Nintendojitsu
Banned
You should worry more about if there are enough things to play on the handheld rather than if it will sell well or not.
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Media Create Sales: Week 39, 2014 (Sep 22 - Sep 28)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
You should worry more about if there are enough things to play on the handheld rather than if it will sell well or not.
In a sales thread?
Triggerhappytel
Member
I didn't realise the new Fatal Frame was out in Japan already. Is Nintendo likely to localise it?
About PSVs loss of Sword Art Online exclusivity, PSVs potential in 2015 looks to be very dire and they likely expect the system to remain stagnant or even a decline next year, the PS3 version could as well just be a reaction to this non-pleasant development.
We don´t know if there are some behind the scene deals or not for all we know even the selling off of all SQEX shares that were in Sonys possession until recently could be part of a deal... so I won´t exclude anything, other than that and simply talking about the Japanese userbase and potential sales there is a clear advantage for 3DS. In fact the revision by its own will have a bigger userbase than PS4 quite soon and continue selling comfortably more for the next 1-2 years, at the very least we can already exclude the silly argument of "active userbase" beeing a disadvantage for 3DS.
We don´t know if there are some behind the scene deals or not for all we know even the selling off of all SQEX shares that were in Sonys possession until recently could be part of a deal... so I won´t exclude anything, other than that and simply talking about the Japanese userbase and potential sales there is a clear advantage for 3DS. In fact the revision by its own will have a bigger userbase than PS4 quite soon and continue selling comfortably more for the next 1-2 years, at the very least we can already exclude the silly argument of "active userbase" beeing a disadvantage for 3DS.
It will decline massively next year. No doubt about that.
I've got to ask though, are you just concern trolling? You seem very worried about the Vita, yet I never see you in any Vita specific threads.
my same reaction :\
Btw, my last bit abuot DQXI: among the announcements (big screen, no mobile etc...) there was also a clear statement that it would be a mistake to be exclusive to one platform.
I´m not concerned, just stating the obvious.
Just wondering because you often present an unrealistically positive scenario as a worst case. That and your evident feelings about the device don't really jive with someone that wants it to do well, which makes my former point stand out even more.
I expect NCL to toss out the OG 3DS & 3DS XLs as soon as they can, alongside crapload of lucrative bundles and whatnot for the n3DS & n3DS XLs that would put a stop to this very thing.
that's tons of users doing that also to the poor Wii U >_<
let's hug, mate, my Wii U love and your Vita love are children of the same videogame passion!
Launch title for the Nintendo Infinity and Nintendo Advance/Advance XL. Believe!
It's nice of you to own up. It's silly to make bold claims like that, especially when it isn't true. Anyway, I too look forward to Estival Versus' sales numbers in March. Hopefully it'll move some PS4s.
Maybe unlikely but not really impossible, because I don´t see beeing stagnant as such a positive feat, when it comes to PSV, considering how mediocre the sales have been so far, even in its best/last year. At best you could say "it could be worse", like the current consoles so far...
Even than I also said that a decline is also a possibility and I really don´t understand how a undefined decline can be described as an "unrealistically positive scenario".
About "feelings about the device" you are the last one I want to see any complains. Besides sales discussions which I find the most interesting part of the system, I´m mostly indiffirent by now, due to lack of appealing general and especially 1st party support, at this point it is mainly just a collectable to me.
In Japan? PSV is getting a bigger amount of games for teenagers and otaku than any other platform (smartphones excluded). Look at the upcoming anime-licensed games from Bandai Namco and Kadokawa. PSV-3DS would have been a better choice for the development you're pointing out.
PSV to PS3 and PS3 to PSV seem to be a lot easier/cheaper to do, we also don´t know if there are some advantages when it comes to royalties.
KratosEnergyDrink
Member
Presumably, at least for EU. The last too FF-Games (FF2 Wii and Spirit Camera) were released very fast in EU. I think FF5 will be released in 2015 in EU.
test_account
XP-39C²
Darius: I think SmokyDave is also thinking about the number of times you've mentioned how the Vita is going to do worse in the time to come. You're free to say what you want of course, but i've also noticed that you've talked about it in recent times.
metalslimer
Member
Vita is going to do much worse next year, but I don't really see how that is a big issue for the software it's going to get next year, I mean the system will probably be on the way towards death by 2016 especially when the 4DS launch rolls around, but I don't think we'll see a mass exodus in the type of software Vita currently gets. It's not like a successor is coming.
shinra-bansho
Member
But we all know the 4DS is launching in 2017. With the Wii U successor in 2018. Believe.
Pennywise83
Banned
PSV lineup is basically solidifying on the same audience that already has bought the system. Hence, sequels, same IPs, and/or same genres for the rest of its lifespan. We already saw how PSV has sold in 2014 with good sw sales, and it is reasonable to think it will follow this path in 2015. It might still get two or three big hitters, such as Final Fantasy X-3 or God Eater 3.
i can't see Sony admitting defeat and abandoning the handheld market atleast in japan but who knows.
Magicpaint
Member
Not at all. It has hit a ceiling for the userbase it primarily caters to but they're still active. 2015 will probably be like 2014 has been for 3DS. Decline in HW sales but not much of a decline SW wise. There's also the possibility of a redesign.
As an aside, sales threads are full of repetition. It's pointless calling out people for reiterating themselves and does nothing to promote discussion. Talking about how well (or not well) the Vita will perform next year is valid as we approach the end of this one. I'm also curious about what kind of momentum the n3DS will bring for the 3DS. Whether it'll be DSi-esque or not in light of the current market realities.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Did I miss something?
But even if that was true, it would probably be a PS4/XBO game.
I agree, while the Vita still is receiving a flow of games, they are games that a primarily targeted at the current install base, which is a trend that has began to solidify over the course of this year. It's too late for a miraculous game to turn around the fortunes of the system sales wise.
test_account
XP-39C²
I dont think anyone has said that though. I just said that if someone keeps mentioning much of the same things several of times in a shorter amount of time, it could be a reason for why someone will ask someone about it (like what happened earlier). If something is mentioned several of times, its easier to notice it, regardless what being said, even if its positive, neutral or negative. But as i said earlier, people are of course free to say what they want, i havnt said anything against that nor did i want to call someone out.
shinra-bansho
Member
Making another dedicated handheld would be like throwing money into a bonfire.
Magicpaint
Member
And I'm saying repetition is inevitable in sales threads - this year has been full of people making a point of how PS4 sales are in the gutter over and over, how much the 3DS has declined, how the Vita is the only system up YOY, how the mobile market continues to decimate what's left of the market, how the WiiU can't sell software etc etc. Of course people are going to assume a position and reinforce them in light of new information that may corroborate that position. I'm saying it's a valid thing to do in a sales thread.
More like some really are very defensive when it comes to the system. In the discussion about why the next Sword Art Online isn´t PSV exclusive, that was more than a valid possibility, which also wasn´t mentioned before, so I don´t see any reason to hide my opinion and that possibility.
It's not about admitting defeat to it's rival (Nintendo) but rather bailing out of a market that is being taken over by mobile.
I'm not going to quote your post history to 'properly' call you out, so instead I'll apologise for assuming you were concern trolling and not posting in good faith. I'm sure your countdown to the Vita declining YoY is coming from a position of genuine interest. Honest.
As for defensive, given that my outlook is less positive than your own, I can only assume you must be talking about someone else.
Mobile/Tablet gaming isn't just eating into handhelds though. While the Japanese handheld market is probably looking at a 50% hardware decline, consoles are probably looking at the same. Basically every dedicated platform is underperforming it's predecessor to varying degrees.
They're going to get deader. Maybe we'll get to the point where it doesn't even make sense to launch in Japan for some of them. Microsoft may already be there.
Pennywise83
Banned
IIRC, there was some rumor saying that even PSV was quite ostracized by Sony Western branches. PSP sold well hw-wise, though, so the project was greenligthed; I can see SCEJ being in a weaker position now, given how abysmal PSV is selling.
It's pretty funny that he's playing dumb right now.
Getting angry when people criticizes or point out a not so positive fact about the Wii U/3DS combined with what he always focuses? Hmm?
sörine;133099136 said:
Main difference is that consoles are selling well (PS4) or devently (Xbone) in the West.
Wii U not so well, in fact various users wonder if Nintendo should try again.
I mean, as many discuss about Nintendo going third party (or, better, portable only) I think it's fair to discuss about Sony abandoning the portable segment with a dedicated device, considering how it is not selling so greatly in Japan, and it's selling like sh*t in the West
test_account
XP-39C²
I fully agree. The reason why i quoted you on it is because i felt that your comment was aimed at what i said, and i didnt mean to say that there is anything wrong with repeating or talking about the same subject. So i just had to mention that i dont think anyone said that there was anything wrong with repeating talk. Theres only a handful of systems that exist for years, so repeating talk is unavoidable indeed. If your comment wasnt aimed at what i said, then i misundestood, sorry.
Sure, no need to hide your opinion indeed. I didnt mean to say anything against that, i'm sorry if it looked like that. All i wanted to say was that maybe several of previous posts was also a reason for why he asked you that question earlier. You (and everyone else for that matter) can of course say whatever you want, nothing wrong with that
Do you think there is any other alternative? Some phone or smartdevice functionality included as well?
Did I hurt your feelings or something? It´s quite sad actually. It´s funny that you are actually saying that there´ll be a big decline with no other option next year, that´s pretty much low-balling on purpose at this point due to the lack of informations so far. We don´t know if there´ll be further price-drops or revisions next year, just to name two options.
That the PSV could have a worse performance starting mid October(to December) compared to its sales in the same period last year was and is just an impression I´ve got and it seems also not an unrealistic one, so what´s the problem with that? This situation is very interesting to me in general and also because almost all year the yoy increase of the PSV was a constant topic in these sales threads and also in other PSV related threads wasn´t it? While now this very advantage could melt considerably in a matter of less than 3 months. If this isn´t relevant to a sales-thread I can´t say what is.
We know Sony have essentially dropped software support, and we now know there's a New 3DS to compete against as well. That's enough of a one-two punch to cement a good sized decline next year. Holding firm ain't happening barring some sizeable announcement completely out of the blue.
Sometimes it ain't what you say, it's how you say it.
As I said though, I must be terribly mistaken about you, and for that you have the sincerest apology I could possibly muster.
BishopLamont
Banned
3DS is the only relevant platform for the rest of the year. YW, revision and smash bros is the three biggest reasons for this holiday outdoing last year's
YW and smash bros is as strong a seller seller as MH4 and Pokemon X/Y last year, everything else is just extra gravy to boosting hardware sales.
smash is gonna do 3m by the end of the year imo
for the sequel probably sold around 70k, considering it charted for a few weeks after clearing 50k, i think the good reception will give the sequel a good first week.
YW and smash bros is as strong a seller seller as MH4 and Pokemon X/Y last year, everything else is just extra gravy to boosting hardware sales.
smash is gonna do 3m by the end of the year imo
Yeah but the anime was when it gave the game a second life.
I really doubt Sony wants to let Nintendo have the dedicated handheld market all to themselves again, Sony will keep competing with Nintendo in this area, no matter what their future platforms may be.
damn how i miss this, exactly what i thought.
yeah 250k would be my guess too..maybe closer to 200k though, so in between those two would be my guess.
for the sequel probably sold around 70k, considering it charted for a few weeks after clearing 50k, i think the good reception will give the sequel a good first week.
I think there will be meltdowns if PS4 is not a platform when its announced.
oh boy
the 3DS is not the Wii U
Kresnik258
Member
I actually don't see the point of the multi-plat release for SAO. I get the feeling there's a great amount of overlap between PSV & PS3 at this point and I think it's just going to split the same ~ 250k or so who bought Hollow Fragment up, rather than expand the audience further.
I think both versions will more than make the budget back between them, regardless, but still.
I think Vita HW sales will be massively down next year - there's just nothing announced that's going to do anything to stimulate growth. There's barely anything big coming at all anyway (God Eater 2 Burst being pretty much the only one).
But if you're releasing an existing property which is on the console, I don't see any problems shifting that software. I'd expect, like Legend of Heroes, you could see pretty continued software sales because the userbase is still there. Whether that's good enough for these publishers is another story.
I think both versions will more than make the budget back between them, regardless, but still.
I think Vita HW sales will be massively down next year - there's just nothing announced that's going to do anything to stimulate growth. There's barely anything big coming at all anyway (God Eater 2 Burst being pretty much the only one).
But if you're releasing an existing property which is on the console, I don't see any problems shifting that software. I'd expect, like Legend of Heroes, you could see pretty continued software sales because the userbase is still there. Whether that's good enough for these publishers is another story.
test_account
XP-39C²
There is probably some overlapping, but its very hard to say exactly how much it is. Thats why they try a multiplatform release now, to see if more people buy the game. Kinda hard to know the exact outcome though because every game is different. One would have to get a time machine to know the exact outcome
While the situation looks indeed not positive when it comes to next year, my point is that you seem quite confident and have no problems with this kind of mostly baseless and premature prediction, while on the other hand started a scene just a few weeks ago, against a more clear situation a prediction for the Oct-Dec period.
shinra-bansho
Member
The alternative is not throwing money in a bonfire.
I really don't get where this idea comes from that it's tremendously important to Sony to try and compete in:
a rapidly shrinking market...
that isn't particularly strategically important to the company as a whole...
in which they've never had particularly good alignment with the key demographics...
that's heavily regionally concentrated...
in which there's a dominant competitor...
that they've failed abysmally in with their last attempt...
There won't be another dedicated handheld from Sony. If they make one they deserve their eventual bankruptcy.
I'm sure there'll be meltdowns too if/when that happens; there are meltdowns over all sorts of trivial announcements let alone platform announcements for longstanding franchises. But I doubt any reaction will be on the scale previously seen because of both the diminished relevance of Japanese titles in the global market and that it wouldn't be the first time that the game went to handhelds.
Moor-Angol
Banned
not only the anime
in December 2013 they started the manga, then in January arrived the anime and the medals; during spring 2014 iirc arrived the arcade game
monthly sales :
Dec. 60k (40k just from the last 2 weeks)
Jan. 60k
Feb. 110k
Mar. 190k
Apr. 190k
Of course the anime helped a lot sales, cause a lot of people didn't know about the game since they watched the anime, but between anime and medals I don't know which one is the most popular in Japan now
What I mean is a lot of games have also anime, but it doesn't automatically mean it will be a success (Hero Bank and Gaist Crusher say hello).
L5 was able to create a perfect mix about different media, more than they did with Inazuma, for example
And I wonder if Youkai Watch success might have affected latest Pokemon X/Y sales
test_account
XP-39C²
That is true, but on the other hand, that also eliminate the chance to make money. Dedicated gaming devices are indeed in decline compared to previous generation, and console arent exactly doing very well, but the interest for gaming in general in Japan is still strong and its possible to capitalize on that.
Pennywise83
Banned
Do you think Sony would be able to undertake an investment such as developing a new dedicated gaming device (which also means supporting its ecosystem, i.e. retailing channels, third parties relationship, accessories, etc.) when PSV is going to sell less than 10m units worldwide, and just 5-6m in Japan? Sony is cutting all the riskier and less profitable branches; handheld gaming just seems the most obvious one (and the fact that Sony itself basically stopped supporting the platform software-wise speaks for itself).
test_account
XP-39C²
I dont know, i just cant see that Sony is basically dropping out of trying to capitalize on gaming in Japan.
Pennywise83
Banned
It will, but on home consoles. Sony's userbase has shown to be quite similar across PS3 and PSV, and recent announcements witnessed Sony's intention to migrate gamers from PSV towards PS4. It seems incredibly silly to split up a tiny userbase (as it became the one on dedicated devices); this is true also for Nintendo in my opinion.