Agreed, I think It does really well with the mainstream. People like us sit on a forum and think that the trends here are how things are perceived by the masses but they aren't. Destiny isn't a bad game and I hear "normals" talk about how much they like "Bad Game A" and how amazing it is. I sometimes think games media and "gamers" like us have become a little too jaded in what is an enjoyable game.
September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Agreed, I think It does really well with the mainstream. People like us sit on a forum and think that the trends here are how things are perceived by the masses but they aren't. Destiny isn't a bad game and I hear "normals" talk about how much they like "Bad Game A" and how amazing it is. I sometimes think games media and "gamers" like us have become a little too jaded in what is an enjoyable game.
BWJinxing
Member
The NASA Mars Rover landing when it touched down.
Well, they're quite different. GfK has the letters G, F, and K while NPD has the letters N, P, and D. Nothing in common, really.
theprodigy
Member
NPD tracks bundles with the hardware sales. Subscribers with access to both hardware and software breakdowns can combine the two, if they want.
Trust me said:
Please refrain from using "-" in the predictions in the future, unless you meant to predict negative sales.
SwiftDeath said:
I've been going with "as long as there's a really good effort to match the formatting, I'll usually take it", but with all the "off" prediction formats lately, next year will probably be more strict about it. Don't want to shift in what I let slide mid-year, though. Thanks!
N.Domixis said:
I converted this to 153K. If you really meant 1.5 million, please let me know, and I'll change it back.
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Sep-2014
1. PS4 - 435K
2. XB1 - 271K
3. 3DS - 125K
4. WIU - 72K
5. 360 - 62K
6. PS3 - 39K
Been thinking about reducing it to these 4 for next year, by the way. Not sure if Wii U would move back into points or stay for units only, though.
That NPD thread is a mess (lol). Keep checking to see if there's more sales stat info but it's nothing but people bickering.
Wonder why we have to wait a long time for XB1 numbers this time around -- as long as XB1 is over 200K then I wouldn't find the sales to be horrible.
XB1 couldn't possibly be under 200K could it? (Dun dun dun)
Wonder why we have to wait a long time for XB1 numbers this time around -- as long as XB1 is over 200K then I wouldn't find the sales to be horrible.
XB1 couldn't possibly be under 200K could it? (Dun dun dun)
SwiftDeath
Member
No worries. You do great work! Much appreciated
It's funny because gaf will probably be off quite a bit this month looking at that and PS4 numbers and yet Pachter is still going to place horribly because how god awful his prediction was
I highly doubt XB1 was under 200k
Weekly XB1 baseline is probably ~35k, so 175k in a 5 week month with no promotions or big games. With Destiny, Fifa, Forza and that promotion I can't see it being less than 200k
I do too. I just find their basic PR statement strange though.
I mean, no word about the free game week sales? Just very strange. I would be surprised by less than 200K or higher than 300K. Anything in between 200-300K would pretty much be what I would expect.
SwiftDeath
Member
The MS PR is....surprisingly light, I agree. I think it might be them not wanting to set a precedent for giving away any useful information if eventually the only useful information they can give still puts them in a bad light? I dunno I got nothing
I agree 200k - 300k sounds reasonable
theprodigy
Member
units: 77k (PS4/XB1/WIU)
points: 46.51 (PS4/XB1)
will wait for more narrowing down on 3DS/Wii U and other numbers, let's just say my edits worked in my favor but not enough for PS4
TheBanditKing
Member
Wow according to their list the X1 stand alone Destiny out sold PS4 stand alone, but add in those bundle numbers and its a whole different number.
Graphics Horse
Member
Hmm I'm over 100k off with ps4 but I think a lot will be. I predicted 148k for 3ds so that should be in my favour.
shinra-bansho
Member
So, on the plus side everyone did terribly with PS4 predictions.
Duxxy3
Member
I didn't have a clue what to guess - I had a range from 250k-550k that I was trying to decide on. If Destiny buyers were already PS4 owners, it would be lower. If Destiny buyers were new owners... shit, the sky's the limit. Turns out there were a lot more new owners than I expected.
Looks like the other systems were relatively predictable.
No decimal points for the predictions, please.
That thread was a rebuttal to another thread that was using extremely faulty logic to try to determine the PS3 total sales. At the time, I took it as an attempt to try to shout down the crowd in the first thread (since no one seemed to be paying attention to the explanations in the first thread) who were all following the same faulty logic to come to their conclusions.
Dam I should have kept these.
27k off is terrible?
/smugmode
There were many other good predictions made like 510k, 513k, 515k, 518k, 520k, 525k, 545k, 550k, 559k, 560k, 565k (mine, looks bad now
) and even a 535k was made unless it got changed after I sampled them. There may be better ones too, but I gathered these manually.SwiftDeath
Member
I did so bad
so bad
so bad
NeoGAF Prediction Results - September 2014
Units
1. ethomaz - 62,000
2. BumRush - 66,000
3. gtj1092 - 70,000
4. ascii42 - 79,000
5. occelinho - 87,000
6. 2thepoint - 88,000
7. theprodigy - 97,000
8. Skeff - 99,000
9. Canis lupus - 102,000
9. Ty4on - 102,000
11. archnemesis - 107,000
12. Darksol - 111,000
12. Welfare - 111,000
14. shwimpy - 112,000
15. strangedopamine - 116,500
16. Radec - 122,000
17. hagege_s - 123,000
18. HalfBaked - 127,000
19. elite09 - 129,000
20. spatenfloot - 134,000
21. Road - 135,000
21. madp0k - 135,000
21. pitseleh - 135,000
24. KillerMan91 - 137,000
25. TheCarrotKiller - 138,000
26. skedar897 - 139,000
27. DangerMouse - 140,000
28. Bruno MB - 142,000
29. Lexxus - 143,000
29. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 143,000
31. LordofPwn - 144,000
32. doicare - 148,000
33. JaguarCROW - 149,000
34. KenPokesBarbie - 150,000
35. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 151,000
35. John Bender - 151,000
37. shinra-bansho - 153,000
37. twisted h3art - 153,000
39. Relativ9 - 155,000
40. Final Verdict - 156,000
41. Yoda - 158,000
42. Loris146 - 160,000
43. Pennywise - 162,000
44. GAF_Agg - 164,400
45. Prototype Viktor - 170,000
45. zulux21 - 170,000
47. Kayant - 171,000
48. allan-bh - 173,000
49. SwiftDeath - 174,000
50. Coulomb_Barrier - 177,000
50. Gbpackers31 - 177,000
50. Maxxan - 177,000
53. Jimmyfenix - 178,000
53. mejin - 178,000
55. Graphics Horse - 179,000
56. plainr_ - 180,000
57. andy_lhc - 181,000
58. RexNovis - 183,000
59. Orthogonal - 185,000
59. vinnygambini - 185,000
61. Aquamarine - 188,000
62. vicissitudes - 190,000
63. Tubie - 192,000
64. CorporateClown - 194,000
64. Elios83 - 194,000
66. Megadragon15 - 195,000
66. bakman21 - 195,000
68. RamzaIsCool - 198,000
69. Xando - 200,000
70. metalslimer - 201,000
71. Dynopia - 202,000
71. jayu26 - 202,000
71. ocean - 202,000
74. DrWong - 203,000
75. GnawtyDog - 205,000
76. Kysen - 206,000
77. Jamix012 - 207,000
78. donny2112 - 208,000
79. chithanh - 209,000
80. AngryMoth - 210,000
80. prag16 - 210,000
80. unknownstranger - 210,000
83. dolemite - 212,000
83. noobie - 212,000
85. GrayDock - 213,000
85. freefornow - 213,000
87. ERMint13 - 214,000
88. BlackBuzzard - 215,000
89. Hammer24 - 216,000
89. RyanPierre - 216,000
91. Goldmund - 219,000
92. Griml┐ck - 220,000
93. Banamy - 222,000
93. Rymuth - 222,000
95. Conduit - 225,000
96. Spazgadget - 226,000
97. Bgamer90 - 229,000
98. michaelius - 230,000
99. bud23 - 232,000
100. Stilton Disco - 233,000
101. Makareu - 240,000
102. Beysus - 242,000
103. Chobel - 244,000
103. Hindle - 244,000
105. Asd202 - 245,000
105. MasterSheen - 245,000
107. travisbickle - 254,000
108. BlackJace - 259,000
108. Mr.Sumal - 259,000
108. astrogamer - 259,000
111. Paskil - 260,000
111. confuziz - 260,000
113. Cess007 - 262,000
113. LKSmash - 262,000
115. Dragonborn - 264,000
116. harrisk954 - 267,000
117. 1st Course - 268,000
118. DarthWalden - 269,000
119. Duxxy3 - 270,000
120. FZZpure - 275,000
120. joecanada - 275,000
122. Dodecagon - 281,000
123. pager99 - 286,000
124. RealityPales - 288,000
125. ferrasvansen - 289,000
126. MilesTeg - 293,000
127. Leekors - 298,000
128. BuzzJive - 305,000
129. RE_Player - 317,000
130. FullMetaltech - 318,000
131. FliXFantatier - 322,000
132. Zero-Crescent - 324,000
133. sacrificengineer - 325,000
134. Opt1kon_ - 326,000
135. Randolph Freelander - 333,999
136. driver116 - 336,000
137. SteveMcqwark - 337,000
137. giadartis - 337,000
139. GamerJM - 338,000
140. IAmRandom31 - 349,000
141. Jallopy - 361,000
142. SolidJum5 - 362,000
143. robo - 367,000
144. CrazedProfessional - 371,000
145. Pachter - 371,500
146. TrebuchetGames - 378,000
146. jvm - 378,000
148. Akai__ - 388,000
149. shandy706 - 398,000
150. BoxManLocke - 400,000
151. Godzilla's Left Toe - 415,000
152. Wurdfurd - 461,000
153. ChaosXVI - 476,000
154. pip77 - 498,000
155. N.Domixis - 504,000
156. Krakn3Dfx - 520,000
Points
Congratulations, ethomaz!
Units
1. ethomaz - 62,000
2. BumRush - 66,000
3. gtj1092 - 70,000
4. ascii42 - 79,000
5. occelinho - 87,000
6. 2thepoint - 88,000
7. theprodigy - 97,000
8. Skeff - 99,000
9. Canis lupus - 102,000
9. Ty4on - 102,000
11. archnemesis - 107,000
12. Darksol - 111,000
12. Welfare - 111,000
14. shwimpy - 112,000
15. strangedopamine - 116,500
16. Radec - 122,000
17. hagege_s - 123,000
18. HalfBaked - 127,000
19. elite09 - 129,000
20. spatenfloot - 134,000
21. Road - 135,000
21. madp0k - 135,000
21. pitseleh - 135,000
24. KillerMan91 - 137,000
25. TheCarrotKiller - 138,000
26. skedar897 - 139,000
27. DangerMouse - 140,000
28. Bruno MB - 142,000
29. Lexxus - 143,000
29. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 143,000
31. LordofPwn - 144,000
32. doicare - 148,000
33. JaguarCROW - 149,000
34. KenPokesBarbie - 150,000
35. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 151,000
35. John Bender - 151,000
37. shinra-bansho - 153,000
37. twisted h3art - 153,000
39. Relativ9 - 155,000
40. Final Verdict - 156,000
41. Yoda - 158,000
42. Loris146 - 160,000
43. Pennywise - 162,000
44. GAF_Agg - 164,400
45. Prototype Viktor - 170,000
45. zulux21 - 170,000
47. Kayant - 171,000
48. allan-bh - 173,000
49. SwiftDeath - 174,000
50. Coulomb_Barrier - 177,000
50. Gbpackers31 - 177,000
50. Maxxan - 177,000
53. Jimmyfenix - 178,000
53. mejin - 178,000
55. Graphics Horse - 179,000
56. plainr_ - 180,000
57. andy_lhc - 181,000
58. RexNovis - 183,000
59. Orthogonal - 185,000
59. vinnygambini - 185,000
61. Aquamarine - 188,000
62. vicissitudes - 190,000
63. Tubie - 192,000
64. CorporateClown - 194,000
64. Elios83 - 194,000
66. Megadragon15 - 195,000
66. bakman21 - 195,000
68. RamzaIsCool - 198,000
69. Xando - 200,000
70. metalslimer - 201,000
71. Dynopia - 202,000
71. jayu26 - 202,000
71. ocean - 202,000
74. DrWong - 203,000
75. GnawtyDog - 205,000
76. Kysen - 206,000
77. Jamix012 - 207,000
78. donny2112 - 208,000
79. chithanh - 209,000
80. AngryMoth - 210,000
80. prag16 - 210,000
80. unknownstranger - 210,000
83. dolemite - 212,000
83. noobie - 212,000
85. GrayDock - 213,000
85. freefornow - 213,000
87. ERMint13 - 214,000
88. BlackBuzzard - 215,000
89. Hammer24 - 216,000
89. RyanPierre - 216,000
91. Goldmund - 219,000
92. Griml┐ck - 220,000
93. Banamy - 222,000
93. Rymuth - 222,000
95. Conduit - 225,000
96. Spazgadget - 226,000
97. Bgamer90 - 229,000
98. michaelius - 230,000
99. bud23 - 232,000
100. Stilton Disco - 233,000
101. Makareu - 240,000
102. Beysus - 242,000
103. Chobel - 244,000
103. Hindle - 244,000
105. Asd202 - 245,000
105. MasterSheen - 245,000
107. travisbickle - 254,000
108. BlackJace - 259,000
108. Mr.Sumal - 259,000
108. astrogamer - 259,000
111. Paskil - 260,000
111. confuziz - 260,000
113. Cess007 - 262,000
113. LKSmash - 262,000
115. Dragonborn - 264,000
116. harrisk954 - 267,000
117. 1st Course - 268,000
118. DarthWalden - 269,000
119. Duxxy3 - 270,000
120. FZZpure - 275,000
120. joecanada - 275,000
122. Dodecagon - 281,000
123. pager99 - 286,000
124. RealityPales - 288,000
125. ferrasvansen - 289,000
126. MilesTeg - 293,000
127. Leekors - 298,000
128. BuzzJive - 305,000
129. RE_Player - 317,000
130. FullMetaltech - 318,000
131. FliXFantatier - 322,000
132. Zero-Crescent - 324,000
133. sacrificengineer - 325,000
134. Opt1kon_ - 326,000
135. Randolph Freelander - 333,999
136. driver116 - 336,000
137. SteveMcqwark - 337,000
137. giadartis - 337,000
139. GamerJM - 338,000
140. IAmRandom31 - 349,000
141. Jallopy - 361,000
142. SolidJum5 - 362,000
143. robo - 367,000
144. CrazedProfessional - 371,000
145. Pachter - 371,500
146. TrebuchetGames - 378,000
146. jvm - 378,000
148. Akai__ - 388,000
149. shandy706 - 398,000
150. BoxManLocke - 400,000
151. Godzilla's Left Toe - 415,000
152. Wurdfurd - 461,000
153. ChaosXVI - 476,000
154. pip77 - 498,000
155. N.Domixis - 504,000
156. Krakn3Dfx - 520,000
Points
Code:
September 2014 Overall 2014 Top (7/9)
01. ethomaz 120.21 allan-bh 701.45
02. gtj1092 115.06 shinra-bansho 672.54
03. ascii42 113.62 Road 669.62
04. BumRush 113.47 vinnygambini 666.25
05. occelinho 107.93 doicare 666.03
06. theprodigy 106.75 theprodigy 665.59
07. 2thepoint 103.60 Graphics Horse 661.60
08. strangedopamine 103.48 jayu26 658.35
09. Ty4on 102.04 Gbpackers31 655.82 * Aquamarine 657.23
10. Skeff 101.93 prag16 654.79
11. Road 101.78 archnemesis 654.45
12. shinra-bansho 101.69 Canis lupus 651.47
13. Canis lupus 101.68 ascii42 650.64
14. allan-bh 100.83 Maxxan 650.14
15. spatenfloot 100.38 donny2112 650.06
16. Welfare 100.37 Elios83 649.32
17. KillerMan91 99.95 jvm 648.48
18. Bruno MB 99.76 Loris146 647.90
19. Lexxus 99.32 Chobel 645.94
20. plainr_ 99.26 SwiftDeath 645.72
21. Final Verdict 99.21 BlackBuzzard 645.69
22. Loris146 99.10 Bruno MB 641.72
23. Trust me, I'm a PhD 98.95 BuzzJive 641.17
24. KenPokesBarbie 98.91 Randolph Freelander 640.45
25. Yoda 98.70 confuziz 639.48
26. JaguarCROW 98.55 Zero-Crescent 636.49
27. SwiftDeath 98.39 andy_lhc 634.35
28. Kayant 98.32 Lexxus 631.77
29. skedar897 98.20 1st Course 631.69
30. doicare 98.17 Bgamer90 631.41
31. archnemesis 98.05 Hammer24 630.76
32. HalfBaked 97.84 michaelius 630.47
33. Jimmyfenix 96.98 bakman21 630.40
34. Gbpackers31 96.81 RamzaIsCool 628.37
35. Graphics Horse 96.76 Aquamarine 627.24
36. vinnygambini 96.66 MasterSheen 624.63
37. RyanPierre 96.60 skedar897 622.20
38. Aquamarine 96.59 pitseleh 619.83
39. vicissitudes 96.49 noobie 619.47
40. John Bender 96.46 CorporateClown 616.55
41. Relativ9 96.38 Goldmund 615.91
42. Orthogonal 96.32 astrogamer 613.71
43. hagege_s 96.31 travisbickle 608.59
44. Jamix012 95.80 DrWong 606.69
45. madp0k 95.67 sacrificengineer 600.40
46. Elios83 95.64 Asd202 598.11
47. DangerMouse 95.61 gtj1092 598.06
48. DrWong 95.49 Jamix012 590.21
49. elite09 95.36 Duxxy3 587.37
50. bud23 95.30 Welfare 583.72Congratulations, ethomaz!
SwiftDeath
Member
Congrats ethomaz. Thanks as always for your hard work, Donny
I was 27 in points! Yeah for general mediocrity boosting my placement!
lol Pachter
I was 27 in points! Yeah for general mediocrity boosting my placement!
lol Pachter
NeoGAF Prediction Results - September 2014
Congratulations, ethomaz!
Yes! if you reveres the ordering I am second!
Aquamarine
Member
SwiftDeath
Member
Jimmyfenix
Member
At least I beat pachter.
theprodigy
Member
shinra-bansho
Member
Lol, 153K units off and still 12th in points.
Three cheers for mediocrity.
Congrats ethomaz.
Three cheers for mediocrity.
Congrats ethomaz.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I can't ;.;
Thanks Donny again
Aquamarine
Member
Because when I created the list for the OP, I didn't want to worry about what parts of each title had to be capitalised or hyphenated or any of that nonsense.
And NPD is known for all-caps when reporting numbers in their monthly sales reports, so I thought I'd be a bit authentic.
Jimmyfenix
Member
Unlucky jvm , shandy & krakn. Pach beat you here.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Not bad enough to commit sudoku.
SwiftDeath
Member
Units:
60. Chartz - 187,500 units off
Chartz wasn't that bad this month with their prediction....
theprodigy
Member
SwiftDeath
Member
I uh noticed that initially but felt I should lay off so as not to suffer the Aqua's rage....
Prototype Viktor
Member
wish i didn't edit my PS4 numbers down at the last minute would have been like 30k closer
Zero-Crescent
Member
Ugh, did not do well this time. I thought that Smash would really push 3DS units, but perhaps the new3DS announcement had a major counter-effect. And Wii U did better than I thought, looks like Hyrule Warriors and/or the new bundles had a fairly positive effect (Wii U was a bit tough to predict using historical data, since September 2013 was the price drop). And of course, I underestimated/overestimated the PS4/XB1 numbers.
strangedopamine
Member
15th in units and 8th points is a fine comeback to this prediction game.
Got my 3DS prediction almost spot on!
anonymous_abc
Member
Just what I was thinking. xD
Aquamarine
Member
Hey Sales-Age. I just wanted to say something quick about a new system.
First, some background:
There is a massive amount of people who just lurk GAF, look for leaks, and then leave.
They don't contribute to the community, they spread the leaks all around the Internet and raise GAF's notoriety, and they raise the chances of us getting into trouble with NPD.
With the email tag system, leak origins + leak reposts will be obfuscated for that massive portion of people, making it safer to leak stuff because leaks will be limited to GAF members only.
NPD has done some pretty nasty, brutal crackdowns in the past 5 years (RIP GameCrate.com)...we don't want to incur their wrath.
Making GAF leaks a members-only affair through email tags would really cut down on the amount of sharing around the Internet.
You'd still have people sharing it...but it'd become very niche very quickly.
(PLEASE QUOTE THIS POST)
The PS4 sucks and the Xbox One is obviously going to win the USA.
XBOX ONE RULES, SONY SUCKS. WHO'S WITH ME.
Now I'm part of a healthy, rigorous discussion on the merits of the Wii U console. In October 2014, the Wii U only sold (QUOTE ME FOR NUMBERS) so it can be assumed that the Wii U is not going to recover because XYZ reasons reasons
First, some background:
There is a massive amount of people who just lurk GAF, look for leaks, and then leave.
They don't contribute to the community, they spread the leaks all around the Internet and raise GAF's notoriety, and they raise the chances of us getting into trouble with NPD.
With the email tag system, leak origins + leak reposts will be obfuscated for that massive portion of people, making it safer to leak stuff because leaks will be limited to GAF members only.
NPD has done some pretty nasty, brutal crackdowns in the past 5 years (RIP GameCrate.com)...we don't want to incur their wrath.
Making GAF leaks a members-only affair through email tags would really cut down on the amount of sharing around the Internet.
You'd still have people sharing it...but it'd become very niche very quickly.
(PLEASE QUOTE THIS POST)
The PS4 sucks and the Xbox One is obviously going to win the USA.
XBOX ONE RULES, SONY SUCKS. WHO'S WITH ME.
Now I'm part of a healthy, rigorous discussion on the merits of the Wii U console. In October 2014, the Wii U only sold (QUOTE ME FOR NUMBERS) so it can be assumed that the Wii U is not going to recover because XYZ reasons reasons
FullMetaltech
Member
Man i did some awefull numbers this month. Congrats to ethomaz.
Edit: Aqua, your new system seems like the best way to avoid problems in the future. Thanks for that.
Edit: Aqua, your new system seems like the best way to avoid problems in the future. Thanks for that.
Jimmyfenix
Member
This seems like a good idea.
Graphics Horse
Member
Why do you get a special entry with an asterisk?
prag16
Banned
Man, so many middle-of-thr-pack months in a row for me. No idea how I'm still clinging to top 10 overall (barely)... (11th* considering aquamarine).
She missed the deadline one month, so donny kept track of her position including that month as a courtesy.
She missed the deadline one month, so donny kept track of her position including that month as a courtesy.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Just a notch above dead last. Good job, self.