Not too bad for my first ever prediction.
Was thinking about 520k but didn't expect Sony to pass the 500k.
September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Was thinking about 520k but didn't expect Sony to pass the 500k.
Graphics Horse
Member
Ah. That's nice as long as she doesn't overtake me.
PS4 alone was 94,000. I knew I should have put 555k.
Can you post the numbers you used for the predictions? (It's the easier way to see the NPD sales =P).
Thanks.
Congrats ethomaz.
I'm sorry, but that's pathetic. If trouble could otherwise not be avoided I'd rather have no numbers than resort to such childishness. GAF isn't exactly an exclusive club and it shouldn't be, either way.
Jimmyfenix
Member
Places like chartzzz are taking leaks on Gaf and spreading it about. This is causing NPD ninjas coming down hard on leakers. NPD sales age is a tradition on GAF i want to see it continue and not die off.
I'd rather hold on to the tradition of open discussions (in the sense that anyone can listen in, if they are so inclined) than secret winks to knowing conspirators. Obviously we shouldn't have leakers suffer the consequences of our lust for numbers. I don't find that to be a very venerable tradition by comparison.
Right, because chartz and the "NPD ninjas" couldn't possibly sign up for a GAF account. The rigorous screening process will keep them out for sure.
Bruno MB
Member
Almost 1,500 messages, for a moment I thought I had mistakenly clicked on the NPD thread.
Getting a great result in the prediction league is now much harder with so many people participating. Placement bonus are more valuable than ever. These threads have grown a lot from just 2 years ago.
Getting a great result in the prediction league is now much harder with so many people participating. Placement bonus are more valuable than ever. These threads have grown a lot from just 2 years ago.
Orthogonal
Member
185,000. Not terrible but not very good either. I knew I should have gone with my gut and put PS4 at 500k+, but I thought it was just wishful thinking.
At least I edged out Chartz and Aqua
At least I edged out Chartz and Aqua
shinra-bansho
Member
If the people who graciously share any NPD or other tracker info they're privy to feel the desire or need to obfuscate that sharing so as to avoid drawing unnecessary further distribution of that [technically proprietary and expensive] information, and the attention it brings to the site, then it's entirely their prerogative.
I'm not sure why some are taking it as some sort of right to get anything out of these members.
As someone who gains a benefit from it, I'm perfectly fine with jumping through a minor extra hoop.
And if the alternative is that so much attention is drawn that we're no longer able to gain any info from these members, then I'll choose the minor inconvenience.
I'm not sure why some are taking it as some sort of right to get anything out of these members.
As someone who gains a benefit from it, I'm perfectly fine with jumping through a minor extra hoop.
And if the alternative is that so much attention is drawn that we're no longer able to gain any info from these members, then I'll choose the minor inconvenience.
Who's doing that?
AnthonypUK
Member
How is the Xbone fairing in comparison with the 360 over the same time period?
It seems Microsofts PR isn't trumping the X% over the 360 anymore, have their current trajectories crossed yet? or when will they?
It seems Microsofts PR isn't trumping the X% over the 360 anymore, have their current trajectories crossed yet? or when will they?
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
Woo top 20 this month. Think that's my best ever.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm speaking towards both this and the NPD thread, as well as some past threads. We stopped doing summaries, which people seemed to take as a major inconvenience. The suggestion is now that the numbers be obfuscated, which some are finding an inconvenience.
The reality is having easy access to these numbers isn't a given unless you're willing to pay thousands of dollars a month.
You say you'd prefer we have no numbers at all. Okay, that's fine. Simply ignore the posts and or threads.
However, if someone does want to know this or other privileged information, then they shouldn't complain about how those who have it choose to disseminate it, whether it's measuring angles on a pie chart, pushing the quote button or deciphering the near-gibberish of cboat.
It's still doing much better.
credit - Road
Apparently 360 didn't really take off until the following year when people realised PS3 wasn't really much of a viable alternative. I'm sure someone else can add further to that, I didn't really pay attention to sales back then.
To me this isn't a matter of convenience. I find it ignoble (not what the leakers would do, but what we'd be encouraging and how). I'm not going to "simply ignore" it, if this is how we proceed. Chances are, I won't, but whether I personally participate changes little. I'm a bit shocked you find this to be such a minor matter.
No, I'm saying the exact opposite. I don't think I have any right to know the numbers.
My intuition did not pay off, but I stuck to my prediction. So did Pachter. As I said before, we're all permitted our perspective, but I will surely admit I was clearly wrong.
Good job to the winners, and as always thank you to donny2112 for his service to our little community.
If anyone's interested, I posted UK software sales figures in the PAL Charts thread.
Good job to the winners, and as always thank you to donny2112 for his service to our little community.
If anyone's interested, I posted UK software sales figures in the PAL Charts thread.
shinra-bansho
Member
Perhaps you could elaborate on what about obfuscating leaks you find so offensive. I'm not really sure what's encouraged beyond the continued provision of information in whatever manner the person chooses to provide it.
It's their prerogative whether they only want to share certain information with the closed community, with the general public/lurkers/google search, with individuals of their choosing privately, or not at all.
I could be wrong but there are sections of GAF, from memory, that are inaccessible without active membership - namely the sales archives. Non-members aren't able to actively participate in any discourse.
No one's trying to control the British Crown or make Steve Gutenberg a star.
AnthonypUK
Member
It's still doing much better.
credit - Road
Apparently 360 didn't really take off until the following year when people realised PS3 wasn't really much of a viable alternative. I'm sure someone else can add further to that, I didn't really pay attention to sales back then.
Thanks, yeah looking at the trajectory, unless the XBone has a great holiday season ind Q1 2015, the 360 and One will get close mid next year or something.
TheCarrotKiller
Banned
25th in units, not bad at all. But not on the list for points...
If I may ask, being someone who hasn't been on GAF for ages, how are the points calculated?
If I'm not completely wrong it has something to do with the percentage of the difference from the real value, right..?
If I may ask, being someone who hasn't been on GAF for ages, how are the points calculated?
If I'm not completely wrong it has something to do with the percentage of the difference from the real value, right..?
I don't find it offensive, I find it ignoble.
In the other thread a "members only" tag was suggested. These are means a forum for sharing fetish pornography would seek refuge with. One could say we ourselves are identifying this information and its distributors as shady, seedy and sleazy, exhibiting fear of what the greater public might think about us and do about it, if only it knew.
I don't mean to say that this is what we'd be doing, but if similar problems are solved in the same fashion, it's because of deeper reasons. We'd be using secrecy and hidden signs, while keeping a pretense of everyday occurrence. That's my problem. These numbers in my mind aren't worth redefining what a full member of this forum is as opposed to a lurker or junior. We're gathering in back alleys imperceptibly marked as if we were criminals.
The change is minor (a member clicks "quote" on posts with a bolded letter in NPD threads), but the shift in demeanor and self-conception is huge.
Does that make it clearer?
Absolutely. Again, I'm not questioning their position in all of this. I also don't think that people who then consume the information are base or something like that. It's just that in my idealistic view of this forum, I would have seen us rather abstain.
I didn't know about that. I don't think participation should be a right everyone irrevocably holds. The moderation on this forum is exceptionally good. What members say publicly in a thread, however, should always be public. A great forum's intent and merit is its ability to educate.
Assuming you're asking me, I don't feel any sort of right to get any information from anyone. I think the obfuscation you guys are doing is silly and pointless, and it makes the thread difficult or impossible to catch up with quickly. I think that has the end result of degrading the quality of the discussion. Personally, i think if someone is not comfortable posting something on GAF, then they should just refrain from doing so.
I understand that GAF has rules, and we have to abide by them. Evilore and the mods run the site, and I respect that. I am surprised to see rules apparently being invented by members in the middle of the night, though.
I'm probably in the minority on this, but you asked so I answered.
shinra-bansho
Member
It makes it clearer, yes. But I think you're taking it a bit too seriously in terms of outward facing perception of the forum, at least based on your analogies. Or perhaps I just have a less idealised image of what GAF and forums in general are.
As it stands NPD is presumably aware of and tolerate the degree of their proprietary information we share and discuss within the forum. But we've been told they take a dim view on GAF being a flash point for wide dissemination. I don't really think people always recognise the tidbits of information we get form parts of datasets that the company sells for thousands of dollars.
That may realistically lead to a compromise position, where those with information aren't saying it publicly. Because in the event they [NPD] choose to exercise their rights over that info and clamp down on GAF then those tidbits cease.
And in the event there is no data, there'll be nothing to discuss let alone educate the wider non-member readership.
The above would probably get you banned for useless console war discussion in the NPD thread, but I like the basic idea.
Will plan on use that when summarizing this month's numbers in next month's prediction thread. Was wondering how to continue to provide last month's numbers for reference while simultaneously trying to avoid aggregating results, and that is a good compromise. Security through obscurity isn't the best security, but at least it's something! Sure. This is how I'll be posting it in next month's thread, too.
Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)
[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]
September's Results - thanks to various angles
(QUOTE TO SEE and go ahead and use the format above for your predictions, since you're quoting.
)Aquamarine
Member
Listen very carefully.
You think I want to do any of this? You think I WANT to hide things behind quote tags? You think I'm being deliberately obtuse just for the fun of it?
NPD knows about GAF, and they're not happy. They weren't happy back in 2006, they're not happy now.
One of these months it's going to get to a point where they're going to crackdown on the numbers like they did back in late 2006.
No more Creamsugar. No more Aquamarine.
What then? Guess what...no more leaks from anyone.
I do a LOT of research about how NPD numbers are represented outside GAF.
And the vast majority of people just blindly come to GAF for leaks, get the leaks, and then leave.
If there is ANYTHING I can do to appease The NPD Group to just make the leaks a little bit more inaccessible or more obfuscated so that GAF isn't one big *get your leaks here, everyone!* public repository, that will help calm them down.
I can't believe you would call that "childish" or "stupid." Dealing with The NPD Group has been a real headache.
Canis lupus
Member
Creamsugar has been leaking and the community has been summarizing his leaks for years, an entire generation long, why would GAF get in trouble now? GAF has been exactly that repository and the NPD Group hasn't and probably couldn't do anything about it.
I don't think the email tag system is a good idea, people on other sites will get their numbers eventually, they have members here, they will post it elsewhere, either as information or for comparison's sake, it will even happen here, then what? Numbers will come out eventually. Keeping it exclusive between us is really weird. I think this is just your personal beef with vgshart
Please let us continue what the NPD thread has been as usual.
vicissitudes
Banned
Creamsugar has been leaking and the community has been summarizing his leaks for years, an entire generation long, why would GAF get in trouble now? GAF has been exactly that repository and the NPD Group hasn't and probably couldn't do anything about it.
I don't think the email tag system is a good idea, people on other sites will get their numbers eventually, they have members here, they will post it elsewhere, either as information or for comparison's sake, it will even happen here, then what? Numbers will come out eventually. Keeping it exclusive between us is really weird. I think this is just your personal beef with vgshart
Please let us continue what the NPD thread has been as usual.
People were leaking full NPD reports for years, until NPD cracked down hard out of nowhere in 2006.
Then the NPD provided GAF with direct numbers for HW and some software until that suddenly stopped in 2012 iirc.
We've been getting leaks here and there for a while, until who knows when NPD decides to clamp down on that as well.
Those of us who've been here for long enough have seen this song and dance before. The more hidden the numbers are, the better.
Aquamarine
Member
Creamsugar has been leaking and the community has been summarizing his leaks for years, an entire generation long, why would GAF get in trouble now? GAF has been exactly that repository and the NPD Group hasn't and probably couldn't do anything about it.
I don't think the email tag system is a good idea, people on other sites will get their numbers eventually, they have members here, they will post it elsewhere, either as information or for comparison's sake, it will even happen here, then what? Numbers will come out eventually. Keeping it exclusive between us is really weird. I think this is just your personal beef with vgshart
Please let us continue what the NPD thread has been as usual.
Look...I can't deal with all this opposition right now. You just don't have any idea...at all. You're completely ignorant. You think NPD is okay with Creamsugar and leaks. They're not. With each year they're getting more and more intolerant of it.
I'm very close to requesting a ban for myself. *Sigh*
I think I need to take a break from NeoGAF for a while.
Please don't.
Do the NPD thing on your way and don't worry about criticism, most people here appreciate what you are doing.
Breathe, Aqua, please just breathe~
At the very least, take a break from this thread for a while. We can't afford to lose you.
vicissitudes
Banned
Chill. I'm on your side. I'm saying we should hide the numbers more. I know NPD has cracked down on GAF before.
don't do that. you're a great poster to have around GAF in general.
do whatever you gotta do and know that probably 95% of us understand completely why it has to be like it is. don't let the criticisms get to you.
Your mental health isn't worth it. Take a break.
SwiftDeath
Member
Do what you want to do Aqua. As nice as the leaks are, you shouldn't throw out your account over it
Either obfuscate as best as possible with the tags or simply stop leaking if it gets too much
Same for Sugar if he/she is reading this
Either obfuscate as best as possible with the tags or simply stop leaking if it gets too much
Same for Sugar if he/she is reading this
test_account
XP-39C²
I wonder if she ment to qoute the guy above that post instead.
To the people who don't like the extra clicks, you can buy NPD and market analysts reports and openly post the sales numbers however you want on the internet. I won't complain. =)
That said, the e-mail tag method can still be seen by lurkers. And even if it weren't possible, the numbers would still appear on other sites within 10s because there are still thousands of people with a neogaf account. You can only be completely hidden with private messages. But if you want to make it a little harder, I understand, it's your ass on the line, not mine. =P
That said, the e-mail tag method can still be seen by lurkers. And even if it weren't possible, the numbers would still appear on other sites within 10s because there are still thousands of people with a neogaf account. You can only be completely hidden with private messages. But if you want to make it a little harder, I understand, it's your ass on the line, not mine. =P
Do what you want to do Aqua. As nice as the leaks are, you shouldn't throw out your account over it
Either obfuscate as best as possible with the tags or simply stop leaking if it gets too much
Same for Sugar if he/she is reading this
this x1000
FinalStageBoss
Banned
What? Don't do that. You do what you have to do with the leaks(the email tag system is a great idea IMO), but don't give up your account.