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"what will be the biggest story of 2015?" Jason Rubin:"the launch of the Oculus rift"

Rubin hasnt done much after Jak X Combat Racing beyond facilitating the THQ closure, so its pretty up in the air how his influence or leadership will effect Oculus games.
 
I wonder if, or more like, how this tech will divide the gaming community. There are lots of people whose body won't be ready to deal with VR. From my experience with DvKII, I don't seem to show signs of simulation sickness (longest session was about 40 Min) but I guess my wife won't ever be able to enjoy VR with me. You can count the seconds she can endure it on one hand. One workmate at the company tested it while on medication for motion sickness and was able to prolong his inevitable nausea, but still, the issue persists. Nevertheless, I'm pretty stoked for VR.
 
Well he saved THQ so I totally trust that this will be the biggest thing since sliced bread. Wonder what Shu is going to say if Morpheus also launches this year.
 
The biggest barrier for the Rift is the necessity of a high end PC. But mobile VR can take off in a big way with Gear VR, and eventually Apple will get involved. If the CV1 can implement onboard processing to watch movies and play simple games, it would be huge. If not, CV2 in a few years will have it for sure. Either way, it's going to be big.
 
Markitron said:
I like Jason, but he doesn't half spout some utter shit. IIRC he was one of the biggest name's saying that 'consoles are dead' about 2 years ago. I don't think something so high-end is gonna be a big deal for the time being.
Click to expand...

He was definitely premature in making that call (or using hyperbole - I lean toward the latter). The dedicated console market has been in a decline over the past several years, though, particularly when you look on the portable front. It's not completely fair to rag on him for saying that.
 
Krejlooc said:
You're blind. Vr is ruling ces. Its dominating sundance. Fox just declared vr is their future. The nba is all in on vr. Palmer lucky is currently on the cover of forbes and finance times, and was on the cover of time magazine a few weeks ago.

I get it, you don't care for vr. Its still very clearly the biggest buzz in the industry at the moment.
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VR tech has been around for over 25 years. In that time, the tech has seen similar surges in "buzz" only to inevitably fall out of popularity primarily because of price and accessibility. Oculus has not fixed either of those issues. Their tech is still too expensive and still too inaccessible to the mass market, which is the only market that truly matters in breaking VR out of its perpetual niche status.

In all likelihood, we won't see VR break into the mainstream for at least another decade (just like 4K), but it's great that someone (in fact, several different companies) are working on the tech. But it definitely won't be the biggest news this year - just like it hasn't been the biggest news any year since it's origins.
 
I think it will be the biggest story in gaming for 2015 in the eyes of the people that currently believe its the biggest story in gaming today.

In short, not much will change on that front.
 
Abriael said:
Not really. A niche product failing to sell in the droves is not surprising, nor very big news.
Click to expand...

I don't think you understand what 'niche' means. Protip: It doesn't mean a product with far reaching implications in every field you can think of, from as insignificant as gaming, to education, to health, to video conferencing, to military, to cinema, to tv, to traveling.

It's going to absolutely dominate the future because it immediately presents opportunities that nothing else is capable of and that you cannot achieve otherwise without major expense. That's utility, and it's not niche.
 
Amir0x said:
I don't think you understand what 'niche' means. Protip: It doesn't mean a product with far reaching implications in every field you can think of, from as insignificant as gaming, to education, to health, to video conferencing, to military, to cinema, to tv, to traveling.

It's going to absolutely dominate the future because it immediately presents opportunities that nothing else is capable of and that you cannot achieve otherwise without major expense. That's utility, and it's not niche.
Click to expand...

I wonder if you understand what "niche" means. Protip: it doesn't indicate a product's reach, but its mass appeal or lack or thereof.

Second protip: using "protip" doesn't make your post sound more realistic.

Thirdly, the buzzwords you used could be (and have been) applied to a ton of fizzled/niche experiences, second life for instance.

In order for a product not to be niche, it needs to be affordable. At the moment Oculus isn't, because it requires equipment that goes well beyond the simple headset, that already isn't cheap on its own.

But hey, you're free to count yourself in the congregation of the faithful. I enjoy VR, but that doesn't mean I believe it'll suddenly conquer the world.
 
Will it be a fad like the Wii or here to stay like the smartphone?

Can't wait to see the posts hoping for its failure because it doesn't align with their preferences.
 
Abriael said:
I understood the point perfectly. The answer is still comical though, considering how many big stories are brewing for this year.
Click to expand...

such as...?

Abriael said:
And none of that will matter when customers will see the price tag of all that.


No, you don't. I love VR, but that doesn't mean I can't size its actual market impact beyond the industry hype, which means very little.


So was 3D. It was also costly, cumbersome, had worse visuals and it wasn't very accessible, exactly like VR.
Click to expand...

price is not an issue. people buy phones and consoles all the time. VR having a price of 3 to 400 dollars is low end for it can potentially offer. and the fact that you compare it to 3D when it's not even in the same ballpark...

Infinite Stars said:
So was 3D a few years back, and we saw how that went.

Put me into the doubter camp with VR. I don't get this whole trend and despite what everyone is saying I don't think the market is ready for it. It requires too much power to be commercially successful at this point in time. I also don't like the isolation aspect of the system+ other issues I see with it.
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1. it's not a trend, it's the next thing. 3D graphics can only take you so far.
2. isolation aspect? so you don't play single player games I guess.

Abriael;146273204]Not really. A niche product failing to sell in the droves is not surprising, nor very big news.



...Because you say so. I don't think "I'm right because I'm right" is a very compelling argument, sorry.[/
Click to expand...

well it's the argument you're using...
 
metareferential said:
VR is the next big tech-market, like smartphones, or tablets.

You'll see.
Click to expand...

Smartphones and tablets are relatively cheap. VR isn't. Smartphones and tablets don't require you to wear a cumbersome headset that makes you blind to all else. Smartphones and tablets are used in every moment of your life, and that's very unlikely to apply to VR as well.

So I'm sorry, but the comparison really doesn't even get close to fit.

evil solrac v3.0 said:
price is not an issue. people buy phones and consoles all the time. VR having a price of 3 to 400 dollars is low end for it can potentially offer.
Click to expand...

You forgot the very simple fact that a VR headset does absolutely nothing, zero, nada, by itself.
 
metareferential said:
It will indeed be the biggest story, and not only for gaming.

Naysayers can already go hide in a corner.

Hopefully it releases soon but ready. No need to rush it out.

I'm ok with a fall 2015 release.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure -DK2 was disappointing. If the release is about 3 iterations further from DK2, then I may be interested.
 
Amir0x said:
I don't think you understand what 'niche' means. Protip: It doesn't mean a product with far reaching implications in every field you can think of, from as insignificant as gaming, to education, to health, to video conferencing, to military, to cinema, to tv, to traveling.

It's going to absolutely dominate the future because it immediately presents opportunities that nothing else is capable of and that you cannot achieve otherwise without major expense. That's utility, and it's not niche.
Click to expand...

Why don't we put some numbers behind it: is VR going to sell

A billion units a year, like smartphones?
Hundreds of millions per year, like tablets?
Tens of millions per year, like most gaming consoles or wearables or tvs?
Single digit millions, like the Wii U and other flagging consumer tech?
Hundreds of thousands, like relative flops Google Glass or unsuccessful Amazon hardware?

What exactly does "domination" look like sales-wise?
 
Abriael said:
I wonder if you understand what "niche" means. Protip: it doesn't indicate a product's reach, but its mass appeal or lack or thereof.

Second protip: using "protip" doesn't make your post sound more realistic.

Thirdly, the buzzwords you used could be (and have been) applied to a ton of fizzled/niche experiences, second life for instance.

In order for a product not to be niche, it needs to be affordable. At the moment Oculus isn't, because it requires equipment that goes well beyond the simple headset, that already isn't cheap on its own.
Click to expand...


Its "mass appeal" is integrally connected to its "mass utility", which has far reaching implications in every field you can think of. The fact that you are comparing this to other "fizzled" experiences demonstrates precisely the gravity of your failings: there are things real quality VR can do that people have been wanting to do since as long as they've been imagining "the future." It is now here.

Additionally, if you simplify your point of view any more ridiculously it's going to borderline into farce. A product doesn't need to be "affordable" to have mass appeal: it needs to simply offer something that the mass market considers value for the experience it offers. We have an endless array of products that are extremely expensive, and yet set off firestorms of popularity that resound to this day.

On top of that, you demonstrate a profound lack of understanding of how prices actually scale, in comparison to growing popularity or lowered cost of components. Do you know how many products started out prohibitively expensive and now are ubiquitous to every day life? I'll name one: Cellphones. Consumer VR isn't even going to start out prohibitively expensive, as it's likely to come in at $300 for a good headset.
 
Abriael said:
Smartphones and tablets are relatively cheap. VR isn't. Smartphones and tablets don't require you to wear a cumbersome headset that makes you blind to all else. Smartphones and tablets are used in every moment of your life, and that's very unlikely to apply to VR as well.

So I'm sorry, but the comparison really doesn't even get close to fit.
Click to expand...

VR has a bigger reach. You clearly fail to see the bigger picture.

VR in medicine, teaching, design, you name it.

The tech is here to stay and change the way we interact with machines. And it won't happen overnight. So if you're implying 2015 sales will be lackluster, I could agree.

I could be wrong though.
 
The biggest story in the years following the release of CV1 will be about adoption rates slowing and VR not taking off like it was expected to.
 
Let 'em continue to doubt you, Rubin.

Remember how everyone forgot about Dave Perry? Not doing so bad now, is he?

Same thing will happen with Rubin and VR. Nothing sits in the pot long enough to be considered revolutionary anymore. Instead, you'll simply see it continue to grow and the tech get better, and better, and...
 
Guevara said:
Why don't we put some numbers behind it: is VR going to sell

A billion units a year, like smartphones?
Hundreds of millions per year, like tablets?
Tens of millions per year, like most gaming consoles or wearables or tvs?
Single digit millions, like the Wii U and other flagging consumer tech?
Hundreds of thousands, like relative flops Google Glass or unsuccessful Amazon hardware?

What exactly does "domination" look like sales-wise?
Click to expand...

Now heres a pretty damn good question. Lets see if we get an answer.
 
Amir0x said:
Consumer VR isn't even going to start out prohibitively expensive, as it's likely to come in at $300 for a good headset.
Click to expand...

Which does absolutely nothing by itself.

Additionally, if you simplify your point of view any more ridiculously it's going to borderline into farce. A product doesn't need to be "affordable" to have mass appeal: it needs to simply offer something that the mass market considers value for the experience it offers. We have an endless array of products that are extremely expensive, and yet set off firestorms of popularity that resound to this day.
Click to expand...

Care to bring some examples, and sales data to back them up?

The rest basically equates to "i'm right because I'm right and I'll add some negative adjectives to your opinion just because" so I won't bother.
 
Flavius said:
Let 'em continue to doubt you, Rubin.

Remember how everyone forgot about Dave Perry? Not doing so bad now, is he?

Same thing will happen with Rubin and VR. Nothing sits in the pot long enough to be considered revolutionary anymore. Instead, you'll simply see it continue to grow and the tech get better, and better, and...
Click to expand...


what has rubin accomplished after leaving nd?

yes, vr is the future.
 
Guevara said:
Why don't we put some numbers behind it: is VR going to sell

A billion units a year, like smartphones?
Hundreds of millions per year, like tablets?
Tens of millions per year, like most gaming consoles or wearables or tvs?
Single digit millions, like the Wii U and other flagging consumer tech?
Hundreds of thousands, like relative flops Google Glass or unsuccessful Amazon hardware?

What exactly does "domination" look like sales-wise?
Click to expand...

All of them.

It will start slow (not Google Glass-slow) and it will definitely reach hundreds of millions.

How long will it take? Maybe 5, maybe 10 years.
 
Amir0x said:
It's going to absolutely dominate the future because it immediately presents opportunities that nothing else is capable of and that you cannot achieve otherwise without major expense. That's utility, and it's not niche.
Click to expand...

One of the first internships I was offered was working for a "game" company that exclusively made training simulations for the US Military. One of their biggest products was VR ... in 2005. VR tech isn't new and many of the applications that Oculus (and others) have been espousing that will "revolutionize" everything are already being done, in fact, have been for over 10 years.

Oculus is just one company working on 3 decade old tech that hasn't broken into the mass market in 30 years. And, unfortunately, they really aren't doing anything differently than their predecessors that would suggest they will have more success.
 
Damn right. This is going to be a great year. I'll be ready to build my new over the top mitx PC towards the end of the year and will definitely be picking one up to go with it.

And as usual, here are the "VR will be a niche" guys. Hate to break it to them, but, it is set to do pretty damn well and be around for the foreseeable future. Arguably the way it has already got a foot in the door for multiple industries, is far beyond what I expected
 
I've been so excited to try the Rift. I'm really hoping some dev at MAGfest is showing off a game with it. Even if it's DK1, I'll be hyped.
 
ScatheZombie said:
One of the first internships I was offered was working for a "game" company that exclusively made training simulations for the US Military. One of their biggest products was VR ... in 2005. VR tech isn't new and many of the applications that Oculus (and others) have been espousing that will "revolutionize" everything are already being done, in fact, have been for over 10 years.

Oculus is just one company working on 3 decade old tech that hasn't broken into the mass market in 30 years. And, unfortunately, they really aren't doing anything differently than their predecessors that would suggest they will have more success.
Click to expand...
Do you know what reasonably accurate/powerful VR tech is today and wasn't in 2005?



Cheap.
 
Abriael said:
I wonder if you understand what "niche" means. Protip: it doesn't indicate a product's reach, but its mass appeal or lack or thereof.

Second protip: using "protip" doesn't make your post sound more realistic.

Thirdly, the buzzwords you used could be (and have been) applied to a ton of fizzled/niche experiences, second life for instance.

In order for a product not to be niche, it needs to be affordable. At the moment Oculus isn't, because it requires equipment that goes well beyond the simple headset, that already isn't cheap on its own.

But hey, you're free to count yourself in the congregation of the faithful. I enjoy VR, but that doesn't mean I believe it'll suddenly conquer the world.
Click to expand...

Your constant assertion of "price barrier" is where you betray an understanding of the tech world, VR, and even consumer habits. Lets get to the assumptions behind that price barrier:

POWER: Not all VR is dependant on a PC generating realistic current-gen AAA graphics into your eyes, many of the best experiences are ones that go for a far more basic yet well realised reality. Being PC first as well means that savvy devs are going to have sliders as all PC games do anyway with regards to details. Addendum to that, a lot of big VR content is going to be video which is just not going to be demanding power wise beyond the stitching of the video. So for the older generations entrance to VR and the lack of hardware power they normally pack, its not gonna be about playing COD20XX in real-time, its going to be about video stuff.

HARDWARE ADOPTION: Gear VR comes out, its a big leap and packs a prohibitive entry price, but thats because its the first and its only working with one phone because Carmack was directly involved with it. Other phones would be wise to now follow suit. At the same time, Google Cardboard is offering a taster of VR for a Stocking Filler price, and takes the smartphones nearly every western world occupier has as an ingredient they already possess. These initiatives don't die in 2014, they iterate and target people more and more. Sony will also be pushing Morpheus themselves as the second half hardware leg to the chorus of one of the fastest selling consoles of all time, and Oculus will be pricing CV1 as low as they can to get people in through the doors, which leads us to...

PRICE BARRIER: Consumers have displayed how willing they are to accept price premiums with things like iPhones and iPads because they have the narrative, they have the marketing, they ARE the story of 200X-201X. The story of 201X-20XX however is VR, theres no doubt about it. For the population with functioning eyes, VR has immediate appeal, is easy to evangelise, and is going to change everything. For the same market thats enamoured with being able to Netflix on a train with a tablet or Skype family members, the sell of making those experiences even more immersive in entirely created parallel dimensions is like putting a price on a fucking M'kraan crystal or the Infinity Gauntlet. People will pay it because are you fucking crazy? You either pick up your ticket to the new world or enjoy being left in the dusty ruins of Post-Rapture.
 
ScatheZombie said:
Oculus is just one company working on 3 decade old tech that hasn't broken into the mass market in 30 years. And, unfortunately, they really aren't doing anything differently than their predecessors that would suggest they will have more success.
Click to expand...

It's like you've read nothing but the most basic synopsis of the technology. There's almost no chance you're familiar with Abrash or Carmack's recent discussions and i'm positive you haven't tried the thing.

I've also been around long enough to remember the 90s VR thing. It's not the same.
 
ScatheZombie said:
One of the first internships I was offered was working for a "game" company that exclusively made training simulations for the US Military. One of their biggest products was VR ... in 2005. VR tech isn't new and many of the applications that Oculus (and others) have been espousing that will "revolutionize" everything are already being done, in fact, have been for over 10 years.

Oculus is just one company working on 3 decade old tech that hasn't broken into the mass market in 30 years. And, unfortunately, they really aren't doing anything differently than their predecessors that would suggest they will have more success.
Click to expand...

Err, the fact that there's like threads about it and we see old people trying it on youtube going viral kinda points to them doing things a bit differently than their predecessors.
 
Obligatory hype gif:

CooperativeTameArgentinehornedfrog.gif
 
Unless Half Life 3 debuts and launches on the same day on Steam, this will assuredly be the most talked about topic all year.
 
I mean, aside from the fact that the OP is about the 2015 launch of the Rift and not Console Warz, what exactly do people think is going to be a bigger story in 2015? Staid consoles, Valve iterating upon their platforms, New 3DS?
 
Affordable home VR is the most exciting 'new' technology since the internet.

I don't know how long it will take, but VR will definitely change the world just like the radio, the TV, personal computers, the internet and cell phones have in the past. It is right there with those things.
 
because it will flop like motion controls
 
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