CambriaRising
Member
Already sick of VR.
-
Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
"what will be the biggest story of 2015?" Jason Rubin:"the launch of the Oculus rift"
- Thread starter Krejlooc
- Start date
Why?
thelatestmodel
Junior, please.
He's right. VR is going to be huge, and I really don't know what you doubters think will be bigger.
silvermember
Banned
I dont see many doubting VR success in the future, I see a lot doubtful of OC supposedly being major in any significant way that people and I mean the ones on this forum seem to believe it will have.
FYI oc rift doesn't mean VR, you can still believe OC will be niche but hopeful for the future of headless mounted VR or cheaper than 3d glasses level.
I think as a product it will fail but ultimately credited with jump starting the VR development. OC rift doesn't do anything that will bring it mainstream success, so far it is following the trend of 3D TVs.
Solid Samus
Banned
in regards to bolded - OC Rift has been doing things since day one that contributes to its potential for mainstream success. Driving down the price and complexity VR design, and attaching itself to massive names in social and technological arenas, renewing interest in VR and helping to kick off loads of research into VR applications across many industries, these are all things Oculus did that helped make people aware of modern VR to begin with. Their name is almost synonymous with VR at this point.
I don't see how it can be argued that this tech is 'following the trend of 3D TVs', whatever that means. I expect strenuously linked surface similarities that ignore gulfs of difference in application, potential value, and public perception.
not every VR experience has to be Star Citizen. A lot can be done with a little. You're dead on about needing software to back it up at some point but it won't need software to be the biggest tech story on the year of it's release. It's basically the birth of a new and feasible consumer medium with tons of application and potential to do things that can't be done anywhere else.
I don't agree with that assertion at all. In fact, I'd argue its a bit tone deaf and ignores a number of trends we've seen over the past several years. We're pretty clearly moving in the direction of another big convergence device that occupies that prime entertainment real estate in the home. Games aren't going anywhere, but traditional consoles probably aren't going to make a great deal of sense in the very near future.
EDIT: No offense to the "doesn't do anything new" camp, but that sentiment seems ignorant of the power of marketing and positioning, of which we've yet to get the slightest whiff.
Whether it booms or busts I think Apple Watch will get more media coverage.
They need some kind of compelling software because it's really hard to capture people's imagination with just footage of someone wearing a headset while a TV set displaying game footage rolls behind them.
Not every game has to be Star Citizen, but at the same time most computers ship with garbage integrated GPUs or second rate mobile chipsets.
How about live, streaming NBA games from the scorer's table. Is that compelling?
ScatheZombie
Member
To counter this argument, I will say that you don't know shit about commercial VR.
It seems to me that a lot people hear me talk about VR in 2005 and are remembering VR from 1990. This isn't some giant-ass hulking headset with 640x480 resolution and 30 Hz refresh rate that you could play for $5 in arcades. Oriscape and Olympus models then were very similar to the design of the Rift - only, as I laid out in one of the my earlier posts, less powerful (lower res, lower refresh rate, about double the price). The improvements in technology haven't made VR suddenly feasible. It's been feasible. It's only made it prettier, faster, and more usable.
The biggest thing Oculus has done differently is marketing.
The tech is different!
Not really. It's better. It's prettier and faster. It appeals to a hardcore demographic willing to be early adopters in shiny new gadgets. It's a little cheaper. But it's not inherently different.
It can play games right out of the box!
And that makes it a $400 peripheral.
But think of all the applications!
That require years and years of software development, multitudes of cross-company contracts, and countless integration solutions.
There's a big difference between the idiots discounting VR entirely, and someone who doubts that Rift releasing this year will radically change the trajectory of mass market VR tech. The best we can hope for is that Rift, and its competitors, are successful enough that we'll see mass market, mainstream VR usage sometime in the 2020s.
CassidyIzABeast
Member
I said the same thing about the NBA and ESPN 3D back in 2010/2011 when people asked where the content was going to come from.
That VR is going to be the biggest story of 2015 seems so self-evidently obvious that I'm genuinely surprised at reading, like, 75% of this thread.
I mean, 2015 will almost certainly not be the year that VR goes wide, but it's going to go loud, and its trajectory is now as predictable as it is inevitable. The only real question is how quickly it all happens.
I mean, 2015 will almost certainly not be the year that VR goes wide, but it's going to go loud, and its trajectory is now as predictable as it is inevitable. The only real question is how quickly it all happens.
I'm tired of hearing about it constantly, without it actually being a retail product.
Poor Andy Gavin always left out by the press.
That's not for Oculus though, is it?
I honestly think it's debatable whether people really want to watch sports from a single omnidirectional camera rather than a professionally edited sportscast.
Gear VR is a retail product
It's Milk VR, which is part of Gear VR, which is Samsung and Oculus' partnership product. It is very obviously going to come to the rift, and it's already on an oculus product: Gear VR.
And people attend games in person all the time. I don't think it's debatable that people like the experience of games from in the stands.
I don't think this part is debatable at all. TNT, ABC & ESPN, NBA TV, you name it, all those guys are obviously going to make it a premium experience just how the League Pass is with the NBA.
Marty Chinn
Member
I find it interesting that the year isn't even a week old and yet so many people in here can predict what's going to happen in the next 359 days. In all likelihood, the biggest story isn't something any of us know about or can predict.
It's bonkers to me that people somehow think VR is going to be a flop. Absolutely bonkers.
Then again, I suppose there were people out there that thought CDs and smartphones were going to flop, too. (Edit: It's definitely not the VR/3D of 20 or even 10 years ago, that's for sure.)
It's going to be a hot gadget, at a reasonable price point (esp. w/ what people are willing to pay now for Apple product), with a far bigger reach than "just" leisure/entertainment.
Then again, I suppose there were people out there that thought CDs and smartphones were going to flop, too. (Edit: It's definitely not the VR/3D of 20 or even 10 years ago, that's for sure.)
It's going to be a hot gadget, at a reasonable price point (esp. w/ what people are willing to pay now for Apple product), with a far bigger reach than "just" leisure/entertainment.
Except that a virtual omnidirectional video stream isn't the same as being in the stands. It's just the viewpoint of someone in the stands.
No drunks spilling beer on me + attending games I can't "in-person" because I don't live in the city = A+++++ would watch 'from stands' again.
Hell, you're talking to someone that pulls the centre channel out from surround sound systems to cut out commentary when watching a televised broadcast (at least when that worked).
You might want to bail on this argument, it's just getting weaker.
Will the doubters please stop just thinking the world revolves around fucking video games.
VR has an insane amount of applications such as
Education
Tourism
Health/Surgery
Real estate
Sports
Experisnces
Training
And to those who compare it too 3D, you honestly don't have a clue. 3D is shit, it's always been shit. I have a 3D tv and a DK2. Ones a gimmick and one is a game changer. I've had 30+ people from varying age strap on my DK2 and all have been amazed. My mother, someone who hates games and struggles with technology wants one. If you have used it and still thinks it's a gimmick, fair enough. If you haven't then your talking out your ass and really don't know what the experience is nice.
I can't image what 1440p screen with bigger FOV is going to be like.
VR has an insane amount of applications such as
Education
Tourism
Health/Surgery
Real estate
Sports
Experisnces
Training
And to those who compare it too 3D, you honestly don't have a clue. 3D is shit, it's always been shit. I have a 3D tv and a DK2. Ones a gimmick and one is a game changer. I've had 30+ people from varying age strap on my DK2 and all have been amazed. My mother, someone who hates games and struggles with technology wants one. If you have used it and still thinks it's a gimmick, fair enough. If you haven't then your talking out your ass and really don't know what the experience is nice.
I can't image what 1440p screen with bigger FOV is going to be like.
piratepwnsninja
Member
I'm pretty sick of this stuff in reference to Rubin. I went to Volition before he got there but during the uDraw stuff. THQ's problems were not his fault, and he tried really hard to right the ship that was already too far gone. Guy was stand up enough to actually respond to emails from anyone that sent them to him asking questions about what we were going through in terms of THQ's situation, etc.
You're acting like we somehow magically appear at live games or something. It's not as easy as just putting on a headset if someone owns a VR headset.
Wait, so if VR resembling the Oculus Rift is already out at market, going by your response, why would the launch of the Oculus Rift be the biggest story of 2015?
Solid Samus
Banned
I know enough about commercial VR to know where you're coming from. It's not like 'working' and 'marketable' are the same thing, though. (nor are '3D HMD' and 'VR'.) Several of the things Oculus has done with their tech has enabled a VR design that is simultaneously cheaper and more capable than previous options. You're right, it's been made prettier and cheaper, but don't discount the importance of that, or how much prettier and cheaper it's been made.
The tech is very different than it used to be even ten years ago, that's half the reason Oculus exists, is because mobile technology and small high-resolution mobile screens have enabled Oculus's approach to imaging VR. Oriscape HMDs are a strange comparison to me, considering irrc that they do not envelop your entire perspective or use curved lenses to right the perspective, they lack inbuilt motion sensing, and are essentially 3D HMDs, meant to simulate looking at a large 3D panel from a distance, using two small screens. It's very different from Oculus's approach, and it uses different technology. I would like to know more about Olympus and how similar that tech is to Oculus, but Oriscape is very dated comparatively. The applications as you should be aware of have been being researched for a long time and the amount of research and money going into VR these days absolutely dwarfs the state of interest in VR at any other time in history. And at $400 the device might appeal mostly to enthusiasts at first but the type of enthusiast who could benefit from VR isn't limited to gaming enthusiasm.
You've given this more thought than I assumed so I'm sorry for my shitty tone, and honestly your best case scenario is how I envision things going down as well despite my evangelism. I don't think VR will be massive out of the gate but I do think that Oculus is the beginning of VR becoming relevant in the public eye.
Attending sports events is about the excitement of being there and the social experience. The stadium booming and shaking as the crowd goes nuts and the music blares. Cheering with your friends, jeering your rivals, tailgating outside, interacting with other fans, taking part in chants or cheers, etc, etc.
Watching at home means you lose all that but at least it means you get close-ups, different angles, instant replays, slow-mo, etc. The VR stream sounds like the worst of both worlds since you lose almost any social angle there could be to it while losing the conveniences of a professional sportscast.
evil solrac v3.0
Member
you mean on NeoGAF or out in the real world?
what does GTA in first person have to do with VR? what does it matter?
if you play lots of single player games (I do as well as do most enthusiasts) then you know lots of times you play by yourself. same shit with VR. there is nothing isolating about it.
1. worse how?
2. what games were killed by motion controls?
we already have Alien: Isolation (although you have to change one tiny file on it for it to work) and we have Elite: Dangerous and Star Citizen.
A junior that is pro-VR? Sir, I'd like to shake your hand. You are a rare breed.
silvermember
Banned
OC relies on a decent PC I don't see people buying a PC just for the rift. No mainstream product yet.
Just like a 3d TV glasses it is a very personalize experience, only one person can experience per 200 to 400 bucks.
It won't be cheap to attract mainstream consumer, very few software options. I mean must have software.
Like I said it won't be a success because it doesn't do anything to suck in the market at large but just a nice.
VR might be success in the future but OC seems like a CES niche product. Also I doubt the gaming market will be enough. Finally, the percent of new product failing in the market also paints a bleak future for it.
piratepwnsninja
Member
People don't understand it until they try it. The look of "wow" on anyone's face that I let try my DK1 tells me that it is going to be popular. It hasn't mattered the age, familiarity with games, or anything. Every single person, and it's a lot of people, have been amazed by my DK1 with its shitty resolution and generally only the roller coaster demo. I know I personally felt the most like a kid experiencing something magical for the first time that I had since I was a kid when I hooked mine up and tried it. I will pre-order CV1 the moment it goes live and will be more excited than I was for my XB1 or PS4.
Of course that can be said about absolutely every new product introduced. I'll assume you are equally pessimistic about every new product that hits the market?
It does require a beefy PC but I'm pretty sure that's not going to be a problem.
The first wave will of course be for early adopters but also it will start to appear in movie theaters, arcade center, etc.. Basically a lot of places where you are going to be able to try out the best version of VR without having to invest 2K$ into a computer.
Then people will buy it for themselves at home.
The first wave will of course be for early adopters but also it will start to appear in movie theaters, arcade center, etc.. Basically a lot of places where you are going to be able to try out the best version of VR without having to invest 2K$ into a computer.
Then people will buy it for themselves at home.
There are plenty of people that could give two shits about jeering rivals, tailgaiting, talking to other fans. It's not going to be a perfect stadium experience for sure, but you really don't think there will be 3d audio options that help put you in the experience? There could be one angle of the camera, probably where the seat next to you would be, that would have instant replays or slow-mo or there's the fact that in stadiums they show the most important replays anyway. It's not the worst of both worlds, it's a separate experience that plenty of people would get a great deal of enjoyment out of. You just gotta have a bit of imagination when it comes to how vr can and will be implemented.
Better to be surprised than let down I guess?
Can't wait. Will upgrade my pc to the latest and greatest GPU+CPU when this launches.
Sitting in the cockpit and looking around and seeing the cool hud interfaces jump up must be insane on the Oculus. And seeing the space stretching into infinity in the background, or approaching and entering one of those massive stations and feeling like an ant. nnnnnngggggggggghhhhhhhh
mrchampipi
Member
Edit: drunk enough, it seems, that I didn't read your post properly ScatheZombie. So let's say it's just a developpement rather than a proper answer to it (since I'm only agreeing to what you said it seems)
That's the most reasonable "doubter" post so far.
I can only agree with most of what you're saying. But I think you and some others are missing a big point: the release of Oculus CV1 will achieve one huge thing: allow the masses to try V.R for the first time.
Sure, it may not sell that much through its first years, but each owner will most certainly allow dozens of curious familly members and friends to try it by themselves. So even if the CV1 only sells couple 100k units in its first year, it will lead to million of people experiencing decent VR for the first time (= mind blowing experience).
So that's what I believe is the true revolution coming in 2015.
While I'm at it, I'd like to add that the comparison with 3D tvs some have made is plain wrong. Viewing 2d images in 3d with glasses always has been cheap and accessible to the masses, the fact it never got big is because it was nothing more than a nice cheap gimmick from the very beggining. Virtual reality, on the other hand, is no gimmik: it's a media of its own, with almost infinite possibilities. It certainly isn't new tech, but more than 30 years after its first steps, we're just starting to see it comming out of the niche/ research tech.
Fascinated by VR's promesses as a young teen, I waited years before I got the chance to play a Virtuality arcade in London in 96, and almost two decade passed before I could lay my hands on another vr headset.
Computers once were huge, expensive and exclusive machines. Wasn't the revolution of the PC the very fact that people could start to actually buy and use them? The same is happening with VR, and Oculus is starting it in 2015.
Gear VR is gameboy to CV1's Super NES.
silvermember
Banned
Considering 80% of new products fail in some way, why wouldn't you be pessimistic especially if you have to stake in the game other than being a consumer.
To answer your question, does it really matter? To answer your question using the theory on the Rate of diffusion of innovative products, I would be be an Early Majority adopter which when looking at the product life cycle would fall at a product's maturity.
A lot of the OC defenders here would be innovators which is usually 2.5% of the buyers and falls on the introductory stage of a product life cycle which also happens to be where 80% of new innovative products fail. Also happens to be where the most bugs are found and fixed. Also where price skimming happens the most aka over charging innovator's (early buyers) and early adaptors paying 399.99 for ps4 vs 350 a year later for example.
Marty Chinn
Member
I tried DK1 and wasn't wowed.
Solid Samus
Banned
Like I said, not all VR experiences are Star Citizen and I doubt everyone will need to invest in a new computer to use VR at all.
silvermember
Banned
I wasn't talking about star citizen, I don't remember talking about it or referencing it. Considering a lot of consumer PC come only with a shitty graphics card and you need to a high frame rate for VR to work etc. So there is that.
You need software outside of games to attract mainstream audience.
If it's just streaming technology then I doubt it'll be that intensive.
silvermember
Banned
Streaming from where? And why? Aren't you putting the horse before.
Let me be clear I am talking about whether OC rift will succeed not whether VR will.
VR has between now and infinity to be successful.
Does it really matter? No, your opinion on VR nor my opinion matter whether VR is going to be a success or not other than obviously we represent potential customers and our opinions could be shared by others.
I do think though that it matters in terms of the potential bias of an argument. I find that most that argue that VR will be a failure seem to want VR to fail. This represents a bias but it obviously doesn't apply to everyone. I'll admit to having a bias myself since I have always been enthusiastic about VR since I was a kid.
Anyway, you are of course right, VR could be the next product that fails. There is probably more for it failing than succeeding as your math shows. Still, I think those that are certain without a doubt it will fail sound the same to me as those so certain it will succeed. It could go either way, it's often impossible to guess what will be the next big thing though (wii, $600 smartphones ), so numbers aren't everything.
Teletraan1
Banned
My trepidation with VR only concerns the first iterations that hit the market. After watching a Carmack keynote not long back I would rather not be an early adopter in this market because I think Screen advances are going to be coming in the next few years that will allow them to deliver 100%, especially if this takes off. I have a feeling CV1 and its developer kits are akin to a 1x CD ROM. Wonderful technology that I cant live without but 4x, 8x or 52x CD ROMs that come out next few years will be much better. While I am sure CV1 will be really good, CV2..3..4 will be even better. I still think it is great that this is finally releasing and for the early adopters it will be super fun but I have early adopted a lot of technologies and I think I am just going to sit this one out until they get through these early iterations.