The Artisan
Member
alright, well I guess that's that. I do think Uc4 will have a massively larger launch than Uc3 did. Which was the biggest launch in the series, yeah?
Uncharted 4: A Thief's End - The story behind the biggest game of the year
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
UC2 was so special. Every chapter post Nepal had so much love poured in it that it puts shit like TR to shame. It was truly a watermark of last gen. Here is hoping UC4 can rekindle the magic of UC2.
Er what is it got to do with that post? He/She is posting impressions of games in the OT who were playing the game
The Artisan
Member
Indeed. Truth be told, I really didn't care about uncharted or the hype behind Uc2 until I saw IGN's review. Then I got it, and I found myself a new (masterful) favorite game.
Yes, Uncharted 3's week one sales were double that of Uncharted 2.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
No.
The Artisan
Member
and that was with Ps3 with a slightly smaller install base than the 360, and therefore the smallest install base of the 7th gen (at the time).
With the traction the Ps4's been having...
That would mean close to 50% attach rate. I can't see that happening.
More like 1 in 3 by the time it comes out.
The Artisan
Member
game is releasing, most likely Q4. by comparison, 7 million Ps4s were sold when ISS came out, which sold 1 million in
how many Ps4s do you predict will be sold through by the time Uc4 drops?
Dragonborn
Member
So you assume the PS4 won't sell a single unit over 20 million in the next 9 months? By the times UC4 releases the PS4 will be well on its way to 30 million plus.
There would be a lot more consoles out there by the time the game comes out, and I think nearly every one picking up a new ps4 will get the game with it.
It has mad mass market appeal and is launching in the holiday season.
Nightengale
Member
Assuming Sony doesn't mess up the marketing of UC4, and UC4 gets the critical reception atypical of your usual ND output...
I'd say 6 million in the first week/month.
And 10 million by 12 months of its release.
TLoU had massive legs, which I expect UC4 to be able to match.
The Artisan
Member
Don't get me wrong that would be amazing, but what exclusive game has ever done THAT?
I'm predicting that the install base of the PS4 will be ~30 million by the time Uncharted 4 launches. With the fame Naughty Dog got a few years ago and the possibility of Sony bundling it, I see 10 million units sold as a possibility.
~30 million before the holiday bump.
But I was just "correcting" the other guy since a 50% attach rate to achieve 10m implies no further PS4s to be sold from now lol.
However I'm not convinced it'll do 10m right off the bat either but LTD in the long term, sure.
More like ~30%, since the PS4 should be around 35-40 million by the end of the year. The PS3's installbase was around that number when Gran Turismo 5 launched, which sold ~16 million units combined with the prologue.
First week would be hard, but Uncharted 3 sold 5 million in its first month, 1 extra million in a similar timeframe is very achievable.
Well, yes, I can read.
The point is that people shouldn't almost blindly believe the thing they're looking forward to is going to be great based on experiences with the developer's past project/s. I was just balancing out the bringing up of Uncharted 2 in an Uncharted 4 hype thread by offering a reminder that it's okay to be a little cautious.Edit: "... a reminder that", not "hat". I could do with such a hat, though.
If it were other developers, I'd agree with you. But after playing the Uncharted series and The Last Of Us, I'm willing to give Naughty Dog the benefit of the doubt. They are the best developers in the industry in my book after all.Well, yes, I can read.
Edit: OT, but... Oh my God! I'm a full member! Damn, I've been waiting so long!
Oh, I don't doubt that it'll be a good game. I do like how open-ended the combat seems to be.
6 million in its first month!
Christ ya'll got some big expectations for Naughty Dog. Poor Naughty Dog, they're never going to live up to this shit! ;D
I bet it'll be lucky to sell through to consumers 4 million worldwide in its first month, and I'm probably being generous
6 million in its first month!
Christ ya'll got some big expectations for Naughty Dog. Poor Naughty Dog, they're never going to live up to this shit! ;D
I bet it'll be lucky to sell through to consumers 4 million worldwide in its first month, and I'm probably being generous
That would mean sales declined from Uncharted 3, since that game sold 5 million in its first month.
I think we're all expecting far more than "a good game" from Naughty Dog.
And yeah, I agree, the open ended combat is anazing and adds a lot to the replayablity.Zelda, I agree...but Xenoblade X and Bloodborne? I love both, but not even close.
Nightengale
Member
6 million in its first month!
Christ ya'll got some big expectations for Naughty Dog. Poor Naughty Dog, they're never going to live up to this shit! ;D
I bet it'll be lucky to sell through to consumers 4 million worldwide in its first month, and I'm probably being generous
6 million shipped. =p
Not to consumers it didn't.
If we're talking shipped to stores, then yeah sure we'll be reaching these numbers.
Not to consumers it didn't.
If we're talking shipped to stores, then yeah sure we'll be reaching these numbers.
Sony never clarified whether those numbers were shipped or sold, but an additional four million were shipped/sold (unclear) in the next three months as well, which makes it very likely that those numbers were sold, otherwise there wouldn't be additional shipments, let alone nearly double the shipments. Expecting growth of 1 million first month sales isn't really that hard at all, of those 5 million in the first month, only ~800k were from NPD, with PS4's position in the US compared to the PS3, it's not far-fetched to predict growth in NA.
They don't need them to clarify since we can make some pretty decent guesstimates based on the extrapolations of the first early numbers from European charts and NPD. Unless there is some pocket of the world we weren't tracking that is selling insanely high disproportionate to other countries, It wasn't close to six million sold to consumers in month one. Not even the same stratosphere of such a number.
That said, I wasn't making an argument against growth, I'm simply saying the game is not going to sell six million to consumers in the first month. We're aiming to pie-in-the-sky.
Shipped to stores yes, obviously it's going to do a number like that.
So 6 million sold-in.
PartTimeWarrior
Banned
"The story behind the biggest game of the year"
Yuck
Yuck
Unless I'm missing something...we don't have numbers from the PAL charts, we only know how high it charted, & it charted #1 in nearly every chart in EU, despite BF3 (which was the best selling game in the series).
The only numbers we have are:
- 3.8 million day one shipped.
- 5 million first month (unclear whether shipped or sold).
- ~9 million as of April 2012 (5 months after launch)
- ~800k NPD.
- Double Uncharted 2's first week WW
- UC3 sold 37% higher than UC2 in the UK.
- Triple Uncharted 2 sales in Japan
- Uncharted 2 sold 4.9 million as of 1 month before Uncharted 3's launch.
Those are the only numbers we have.
Let's not forget that The Last of Us sold-through 3.5 million in its first three weeks, & that was a new IP & not an established franchise like Uncharted, & it only sold ~900k on NPD as well, considering UC3 reached every sales milestone far faster than TLOU, it's not that far-fetched to say that it sold 1 million more than TLOU in its first month.
Move along
This, EDGE did...
I really don't understand why people are taken so aback by the title...sure they got their favorites BUT that's just EDGE's opinion. And besides they do have a strong case claiming that - and they'll not be alone in the media saying that.
EDGE calls it the biggest game of the year.
Wins GAF Most Anticipated Game of 2015
Comes from the studio that in a matter of 6 years puts out 2 Undisputed media GOTY's and another critically acclaimed game.
U2: 96 MC - GOTY
U3: 92 MC
TLOU: 95 MC - GOTY
The latest 2 selling like hotcakes...
And people get upset at some press calling it that....
It's climbed a lot since Uncharted 1.
EASTC0AST_GH05T
Member
Sometimes I think people just want to be objective just because.
What was argued by some posters was 6 million shipped aka sold-in to retailers - worldwide. That's definitely a high number but not unreachable.
This, EDGE did...
I really don't understand why people are taken so aback by the title...sure they got their favorites BUT that's just EDGE's opinion. And besides they do have a strong case claiming that - and they'll not be alone in the media saying that.
EDGE calls it the biggest game of the year.
Wins GAF Most Anticipated Game of 2015
Comes from the studio that in a matter of 6 years puts out 2 Undisputed media GOTY's and another critically acclaimed game.
U2: 96 MC - GOTY
U3: 92 MC
TLOU: 95 MC - GOTY
The latest 2 selling like hotcakes...
And people get upset at some press calling it that....
It's climbed a lot since Uncharted 1.
I'll say, feels like only yesterday I was reading Gaf sales threads making 'uncharted' jokes.
The sequela of that still shows in some opinions. Although my cynic side tells me it's not that.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
It really did provide some witty banter though.
Yup, & it wasn't small & gradual either, it climbed from a Killzone level ~3 million in UC1, to a God of War level ~5 million in UC2, to nearly Gran Turismo/Halo level in UC3, each new entry nearly doubled the previous one.
I don't think UC4 is gonna double UC3 like 3 did to 2, but even more growth is not only expected, but very likely.
Callibretto
Member
If TLoU didn't happen, I could maybe see U4 sold only as much as U3 or maybe even less Since I know some people who see U3 as disappointment or not as good as U2.
But after TLoU, ND have so much goodwill right now that I can't see U4 not selling a lot.
But after TLoU, ND have so much goodwill right now that I can't see U4 not selling a lot.
Omnistalgic
Member
yeah, I think TLOU helps them tremendously for sales potential. However, I think the biggest thing ND could do is TLOU2.
I'm almost positive both will happen, but TLOU will simply not star any of the previous characters besides Ellie. With a movie for both franchises in the works, I think the story will continue for both franchises. For Uncharted, I could possibly see a new direction taking place after 4 maybe if the teams are burnt out on UC themes.
The Artisan
Member
I agree, 30 mill is probably the safest prediction.
does "right off the bat" mean within an early time frame? Say, the first month?
I don't follow software sales too keenly, but is 10 million the first month something halo can achieve? if it is, I think Uc4 will be able to do it now. Not saying it definitely will, but the good chance is there.
Uc3 sold 5 million the first month? That's 10x the amount Uc2 did
Those are NPD numbers, UC3 sold around ~800k first month in the US, the 5 million number is worldwide.
The Artisan
Member
how much did Uc2 do worldwide the first month?
either way though, 5m the first month is pretty amazing.
but again, is 10m the first month something halo's done?
XxRampage07xX
Member
Goddamn, I didn't understand any bit of the reference. I get it now
The Artisan
Member
i don't follow software sales that closely but if other high profile exclusives have done it in the past, why can't Uc4?
So I saw this photo earlier when Nimoy died but didn't think much of it until I looked at it again today and saw dots on their faces. We know in the past Naughty Dog have always hand animated their faces from scratch but now it might look like they're starting to use facial motion capture data.
