The PS2 had a $100 price drop at the same time in its life as the PS4 is in right now.
It too was destroying the competition.
Why not increase momentum further instead of waiting for it to slow down?
March 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
The PS2 had a $100 price drop at the same time in its life as the PS4 is in right now.
It too was destroying the competition.
Why not increase momentum further instead of waiting for it to slow down?
That's not really what I meant. Also, the momentum of the PS4 may be strong now, but if Microsoft drops the price of the XB1 to $299 and announces insane bundles again during the holiday season, do you really think the PS4 will stand much of a chance in the US if it stays at $399? Furthermore, a price drop can significantly boost sales. Keep in mind that the sweet spot for consoles is $299.
hydrophilic attack
Member
Holy shit, I just realized that Bloodborne is the highest full game on Amazon monthly top sellers.
I hope this game does really well. From Software deserves it.
I hope this game does really well. From Software deserves it.
EmptySpace
Banned
people has been moving that goalpost since who-knows-when. first, ps4 will be on top but xbone won't be far behind. then, xbone will turn tables once the drm/used games dropped, then it will turn tables once it goes on par value with ps4, next it will turn the tables once it's $349.
now we're having this conversation at $299.
xbone at 299, though. they would be taking so much loss on that.
It's not about outselling the XB1 for them to do a price cut. They want to sell more Ps4s. They wouldn't start off at $299 because they wouldn't have enough manufactured to sell. If they can lower their cost which they have and increase their manufacturing output then they should lower the price and sell more. Yes its selling well but it can sell better. Ps4 only sold like 15 million last year Ps2 and Wii had years of 20 million plus. Expand your horizons beyond just beating XB1.
The Last One
Member
Type-0 HD, Mario party, GTA V and etc are all above Hardline. I guess amazon's charts don't mean much to software sales.
I agree with this post.
Whilst no one can say for certain that the price will drop $50 or $100, I am certainly expecting Sony to announce a cheaper point of entry for PlayStation 4 in FY2015/16.
Yup. Basic economics, friends. There are people who will not buy, no matter the value, at $400. Lots of people.
Drop the price, and now more people will buy it.
You now have more PS+ subscribers, potential customers for PSNow, and video game buyers. You get way more money from this large group of new additions than you would have if you kept the price at $400.
I'm one of those people.
King Beyond the wall
Member
The point was that the console would not sell more if they lowered the price because there would not be enough consoles to sell. If PS4 dropped price significantly there would be sellouts and the console would not sell more units than it would have at the higher price.
The time to drop the price is either when
- demand is at such a low level that a price cut would not result in total sellouts, or is necessary to maintain market share or market situation requires it (neither apply to PS4)
- supply/manufacturing is improved enough to ensure more units are shipped and a price cut would not result in total sellout of the console (more likely to apply to PS4 in the future).
There is no point in Sony dropping the price either now, or in the foreseeable future, unless manufacturing has drastically improved.
Selling out is a bad thing?
IAmRandom31
Banned
No no and more no.
Stock concerns are not a concern, first of all. 2nd, you don't wait for momentum to die to try and get it back again. You build momentum, and then go for the jugular of your opponent and introduce something to drive the momentum even further. For a console that is already loved, that momentum is driven by appealing to impulse buyers by dropping the cost of entry even lower. $299 has always been that magic price point for impulse buying and mass christmas gift getting.
King Beyond the wall
Member
All I'm saying is you don't drop the price when all it is going to do is sell virtually as many consoles as you are already selling. I don't see Sony dropping the price just to stay at the same or close to the price of the Xbox, but only when enough consoles are manufactured to meet an increase in demand. I'm not saying that they should never drop the price, and of course there are always people who will only buy the console at certain prices and it should be an aim to reach that point as soon as possible, but only when the practical situation allows them to.
you think PS4 production is that close to demand? I thought they havent been close for while now?
PS1 max production in one year was 22 million
PS2 max production in one year was 23 million
PS3 max production in one year was 15 million
PS4 max production in 2014 was 16 million.
Numbers are rounded and show production sales to Sony distribution centres.
King Beyond the wall
Member
I think that graph says it better than I could
Chobel
Member
Missed this part?
PS1 max production in one year was 22 million
PS2 max production in one year was 23 million
Do you know the difference between sell in, sell through and production capacity?
Because I don't think you do.
Do you have Wii & 360 max production numbers?
Also, cool graph with all the talk of overshipping it would be great to see one for the X1, but i guess their isnt enough sold through data available to do it.
King Beyond the wall
Member
I do, but I suppose without know manufacturing numbers, or more recent sell in numbers, its difficult to comment either way on how close the recent actual sell in and sell through #s are.
Sorry, don't have data for the Wii or 360 production.
The PS4 can be bought in any shop fairly easily, it's not like H1 2014 where the PS4 was hard to find in stores.
It's not like PS1 in 1996 where Sony lost over 100k sales in Europe due to lack of stock. PS1 production figures were gradually increased from 700k a month to 1000k a month and then 1300k a month all in 1 year due to huge increases in demand.
Sony have been very good in supplying for the demand that is there with PS4. Look at the Wii for example, the Wii did not even need to drop its price because up until the end of 2008 the Wii sold everything it shipped and Nintendo were struggling to meet demand. The PS4 has been able to keep up with demand and whilst it is selling everything it has shipped its managed to maintain stock levels worldwide at a healthy amount.
I'm not saying PS4 isn't selling, I'm saying that its not in a situation where there is more demand than supply, Sony are passed that point now.
The point overall is that the PS4 is in a position right now where a price drop can make sense, it doesn't need to be $100 or even $50, it may be lower, but Sony are in a good position to do it this fiscal year.
MaxwellParrish
Member
I'm not sure how you can determinate that Sony could be able to affront the increased domand caused by a price drop : sure, there are non shortage actually but there's been shortages last christmas in Europe that seems to indicate that the productive capacity of Sony are not that superior to the demand?
I'm sure that Sony could improve its capacity but maybe this could be economically risky?
(the price drop could provoke only a momentary surge)
You seem to be missing my point.
The point I'm making is that Sony are doing very well in keeping up with demand and have now ensured that stock levels are healthy worldwide and refreshed at a consistent rate in line with sell through demand.
I said nothing about what would happen to demand if Sony dropped the price, all I said is that Sony are in a good position to drop the price. Again, let me point you back to the Wii example above.
You've put words in my mouth.
Advertising isn't free. Besides they been able to make a profit because they haven't had to spend much on ads. This is because they have a strong word-of-mouth. There is not a sharp decline in ps4 sales. playstation has become their most profitable division, I'm sure they want to keep it that way.
It is the best, current-Gen selling console for quite sometime now. You're right, they can cut price but they don't need to. The demand for their console is not in decline. It still outselling it's closest competitor by a large margin worldwide.
There is virtually no pressure on them.
But this is veering off topic and isn't pertinent to march numbers or prediction of those numbers.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
I tend to think that in Sony's mind they already did a "price cut" by bundling in so much software in comparison to last year. This was their likely compromise while waiting for an economically suitable time for a MSRP drop. I will throw my uneducated guess behind the Metal Gear theory; keep YOY up on last year's blow out September performance while also stealing at least a little thunder from Xbox1's likely stellar October. It would also let them gauge how much stock they will need for a holiday with that price point. I think the pack in games will disappear if this happens, though, and will come back for Black Friday and December with the new price.
Felessan
Member
I think that it is mostly with wrong expectations for European sales than inability to meet demand, as I honestly do not believe that Sony couldn't ramp up production of 1.5years old hardware if they wanted to.
PS4 is not an early PS3 when it had bottleneck with cell and blue diodes yield, so there should be no problem with increase of production. You just need to plan it in advance.
Actually they most probably will need to decrease price if they want to achieve 20+ mil in yearly sales. And they need to achieve 20+mil number if they want to follow PS1/PS2 sales route.
hydrophilic attack
Member
Interesting. I should have noticed before I posted.
Amazon buyers have better taste confirmed.
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
People here think that the only thing that matters to sony is being above microsoft..
Console wars...
Console wars...
King Beyond the wall
Member
And they will decrease price when it is practical, ie enough consoles are being manufactured to meet the demand of a $299 / £249 console. At the moment it seems to be that this point has not occured yet. Its important to stress that Sony will only price drop when they are ready to, and will not do so as a knee jerk reaction to an Xbox price drop.
I personally think that such a price drop will not occur until next year at or just before the Morpheus launch (so as to make the entrance price of the console + VR easier to swallow).
Are we talking fiscal or calendar?
Lol this x20People here think that the only thing that matters to sony is being above microsoft..
Console wars...
profit margins are irrelevant.(sarcasm btw)
What are you basing this on? (not saying your wrong just curious of your reasoning)
KillerMan91
Member
[3DS]260k
[PS4]390k
[WIU]95k
[XB1]290k
[PS4]390k
[WIU]95k
[XB1]290k
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
[3DS] 241,000
[PS4] 348,000
[WIU] 87,000
[XB1] 249,000
[PS4] 348,000
[WIU] 87,000
[XB1] 249,000
Look at the post below this one. I'm not sure why you decide to stay in your little box of console wars. Sony will drop the price NOT to increase the WW gap, but to increase the install base. I don't know why it's so hard for you to understand. And I hope you're not saying I'm moving goalposts. If anything, I'm a Playstation fan and from the start, I knew the XB1 will be far behind in sales.
King Beyond the wall
Member
1. The fact that the sell in/ sell through numbers are very close, meaning that they wouldn't be able to sell that many more consoles than they are already shifting. (Based on data up to February, but since then we have had the launch In china plus a big month of releases in march)
2. I don't know how many units are being manufactured and shipped to retailers, but if it was enough to meet an increase in demand caused by a substantial price drop I would imagine they would have done so by now. Also, Increase in manufacturing numbers usually goes hand in hand with a decrease in production costs of the machines.
Until the manufacturing/sold in #s grow further away from the sold through numbers, I don't think a price drop can really be on the books. I'm not saying they will only price drop when demand plummets, but when increase in supply allows them to. When this occurs there will be other considerations as to when to price drop.
I do think that hitting the lower price points will definitly occur and that it is vital for the mainstream success of the console, but this will only occur when it is practical to do so.
The fact that you keep repeating this over and over shows that as I assumed before, you do not know the difference between production sales, hardware sales and end user sales.
The PS4 hardware sell in has been consistent with end user sell through for some time now and so what this tells us is that Sony are in a good position to supply retailers with just the right amount of stock in line with sell through.
This is unlike the Wii and PS2 where there were stock outages for some time, and this is unlike the Xbox One or Wii U where sell in was far exceeding actual demand.
Te PS4 has got it right at the moment and what that means is that production of consoles is very scalable.
King Beyond the wall
Member
I keep 'repeating this over and over' because someone asked me to explain my reasoning. I'm not an expert but do believe i understand the differences in the terminology. Just because there aren't stock outages does not mean that the numbers manufactured and ultimate sell in/sell through is not tight, and I'm not saying that the PS4 is sold out everywhere or anywhere. I don't know the manufacturing numbers so can't comment on that, they may well be producing millions more consoles and just keeping them in warehouses waiting to ship out or have the ability to produce more at will and easily enough when needed, If so I would be wrong. This is what you believe is the case?
If you'd actually read some of the comments above you, then you'd see why people are saying a price drop would actually increase profits for Sony. But please, continue to ignore other comments.
Assumptions are things people make when all the facts aren't present. This is usually followed by rash judgement.
On topic: Do you know of any sales in US that happened last month? I thought I saw something to do with gamestop but I'm not sure.
The quote in context is
Which means that he confirmed his earlier assumption. Said another way: "I wasn't sure before, but after your latest statement I am sure now"
I'm sorry, I wasn't being entirely serious. But I fail to see how a price cut is relevant to discussion of numbers about the prior month. So you can see why any discussion about a price cut in this thread is kind of irrelevant.
If you can provide a correlation between last month's NPD prediction and a hypothetical price cut, then by all means, enlighten me.
Dude, I know you don't like me but can you stop with the whole attacking me in every post thing. It's not cool.
Especially when you're calling me out over stuff like the above. See the post above mine by Blanquito for an explanation of my post.
This is a sales thread. Talk of sales and various factors that impact sales be they current, past or future are certainly fair game and on topic for discussion. It is really bizarre to me that there are people who are either adamantly opposed to the idea that Sony will do a price cut this year despite historical precedent or who insist the topic shouldnt be discussed at all. Does the idea of a price cut upset you or something? Why is it not ok to talk about a topic that could have a massive impact on future sales?
It was an observation not an attack. There still isn't anyone explaining how a hypothetical price is pertinent to the current discussion.
Oh please dude that was a blatant attempt at an attack. You tried to call into question the veracity of his statements by defining a word he used in a different context. Unfortunately for you it didnt hold up to even the most elementary level of scrutiny. There is no denying that.
Sorry you are generalizing this discussion thread. I am not saying this isn't a discussion that needs to be had, but none of this has to do with March 2015 sales in the US. I mean was there any price drop in March?
In other words, the last couple of pages have been less about predicting March sales and more about a "theoretical" price cut. Whether Sony a price cut in the future has no affect on the sales in March 2015, right? Dumb it down for me if you have to. I'm not joking.
IAmRandom31
Banned
If Sony was close to production as is they wouldn't be doing bundles with 3 games plus doing game specific bundles and regular SKUs and special edition SKUs and colored consoles and yadda yadda.
They could probably produce more consoles per year then last gens since the components in the PS4 aren't as unique as they have been in the past. But who knows really in that department
They could probably produce more consoles per year then last gens since the components in the PS4 aren't as unique as they have been in the past. But who knows really in that department