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[Heartfyre]

NeoGAF Thread Title in 2018: "Now that the Mobile Bubble has Burst, is Mobile Gaming coming to a close?"

Really, though, the mobile market is so volatile and exists independently from console gaming that there is no need to present such an either/or scenario. As long as mobile games are skinner box freemium exploitation, they're unlikely to be a draw for console gamers. Likewise, as long as console games remain 10+ hour single player, narrative heavy games, they're unlikely to draw mobile gamers because of their demands. The real issue arises where console game development is affected by publishers moving camp, which, aside from Japanese publishers, hasn't yet happened in any significant way in the rest of the world. The foundations of the medium are not crumbling, and there remains demand for console games, so even if there may be fewer than there were before (which is something that cannot yet be quantified), there's no foreseeable future where console games wane in prominence.

At least not before the mobile bubble bursts.

 

[AgeEighty]

Considering the fact that mobile devices are already running console-level games (KOTOR, Bioshock, etc...)

Those games are 12 years old and 7 years old, respectively... and the BioShock port, while competent, is demonstrably poorer-looking than the 2008 original.

Then you have the fact that BioShock's atmosphere is lost on a mobile device unless you're in a dark room with headphones on.

What they can do on a phone these days is impressive, don't get me wrong, but saying "mobile devices are already running console-level games" is really stretching the truth.

 

[Sky Chief]

Doesn't matter when publishers can make good money on mobile platforms with less $ and time invested. 22 million is by no means a small number, but the audience on mobile platforms is much much bigger.

Why don't you show us some facts and figures about how many companies are making money on mobile vs. consoles

 

[boyshine]

Well I think there's a pretty strong case to be made that it has on the PC outside of bastions of PC gaming like Germany.

I'm sorry, I wasn't clear. I was talking about the console business. The PC business isn't affected the same way at all, since PCs are used for much more than just gaming, and PC gaming hardware is an industry of its own. And yes, PC games have made the transition. You could remove PC games from stores today, and almost noone would notice.

 

[gelf]

That's the problem, PCs have gotten easier to use, and there is a flood of games because it is an open platform. Consoles have become more expensive, complicated, and there are just fewer games because there are so many platforms now.

This kind of publisher behaviour is a threat to PC games as well though. Konami aren't moving to PC development, their abandoning that as well in this move to mobile.

 

[Obliterator]

To those debating we have clear proof about how much console gaming is thriving. Ubisoft just had a record year and its a company built on AAA consoles titles.

Mobile can he massive and growing and consoles can be healthy and stable. The two are not mutually exclusive.

 

[solokazama]

Could be.

Its because producing games for snes/psx1/ps2 (etc) was cheap with good profit

produce games for ps3/x360 was fiirst hit in their budgets

now why would u invest to produce ps4/xone game, when u can invest this cash to create 10 mobile titles with 500% better revenue (because mobile games are cheap to produce - like old days)

 

[Natureboy99]

We get this question every single generation. Konamis departure from consoles is a sign of decline for them. Every developer that has given up on AAAA games has gone downhill in time.

People will always want high end experiences in an easy to use package. Mobile will never be high end.

 

[Superkamikazee]

The challenge is in how the systems are going to be sold once games no longer will be found at retail. Consoles never were a margin driver for stores, but games and accessories were. In the last couple of years it's become practically impossible to make money on games, and accessories as well. Stores that had huge game sections just a year or two ago, have practically removed everything, only a few half empty shelves remain. Stores that relied on games to stay in business close their doors or switch focus to more toys and used/retro games, vinyl music, etc.

So, why should stores keep selling consoles at a loss, when there's no money to be made on games or controllers? When customers only chase special offers on hardware, and download or buy everything else online?

The game industry haven't had it's "napster/itunes/spotify" transition yet. Once physical sales comes to a halt (retail and online), the industry needs to stay visible somehow, or the big crash will happen.. and working with game retail for the past 8 years, witnessing the change from "this is the most important sector to get customers to our store" to "why do we have to sell this at all?" .. it's very naive to just look at quantity sales and think everything is OK. There's a reason why the push for quantity is so heavy to begin with, and it's not bringing the results.

If a large enough share of game sales go digital, there's no longer any reason for stores to sell consoles. Retail won't keep selling them "just to be nice". There needs to be good business behind it, and the current "toys2life" and guitar hero/rock band revival seem like a desperate last attempt. Once they stop selling as well, I think the end will be very near, unfortunately.

WOW, excellent point, and one I naively overlooked (I worked retail for 8 yrs myself). But this furthers my argument that PC will probably be protected from the "mobilization" of gaming. Retail is a big deal for traditional consoles like the PS4, Wii U, Xbone.

 

[4Tran]

Which - if that's the hypothesis you want to go with - you would need to calculate specifically what percentage of the Wii userbase that consisted of. Because it wasn't 100%.

You would then also need to calculate what percentage of the PS3 userbase bought a PS3 solely as a media player, and what percentage of the Xbox 360 userbase only bought titles like Just Dance, because lets not forget Kinect sold around 25 million units.
You would then need to go back to previous generations and reduce previous userbases by the amount of people who only bought things like SingStar or EyeToy.

Basically you would need to do a substantial amount of research work to make a point that ultimately doesn't matter, because large userbases sell large amounts of games and always have done, and nobody in the industry actually gives a shit who they sell to as long as they sell.

What you shouldn't do is just take all of last gens sales and then subtract the Wii because waggle lol

While it's important to retain the Wii data in this kind of analysis, it's also important to not conflate a limited data set on the whole industry. The reality is that Nintendo's failure to capitalize on the Wii's userbase is largely a problem for Nintendo, and not so much for the industry in general. They're in trouble because they can only reach their pre-existing audiences, and their failings in the console space reflect that. While it would have been preferable for the rest of the industry to see that market segment to spread sales to other consoles, it's not a segment that they had much draw on to begin with.

In general, the home console market has seen shrinkage in the last few years, but the sales of the Xbone and PS4 can counter much of that in the AAA space. It may be that the shrinkage is part of a larger trend to phase out home consoles altogether, but there's not much data to support it yet. Perhaps of greater concern to the industry, there has been a shrinkage in the number of AAA titles being made, but that may be a reflection on there being too many AAA games made in years past.

This kind of publisher behaviour is a threat to PC games as well though. Konami aren't moving to PC development, their abandoning that as well in this move to mobile.

The most commonly played PC games tend to be PC-only titles to begin with, so it's not too much concern to them. In fact, the PC market is largely thriving because of the sheer plethora of smaller titles that have little to do with the console market.

 

[solokazama]

To those debating we have clear proof about how much console gaming is thriving. Ubisoft just had a record year and its a company built on AAA consoles titles.

Mobile can he massive and growing and consoles can be healthy and stable. The two are not mutually exclusive.

Yep - few big companies with their clone games for mainstream and thats it.

Remember Sega's masterpiece Valkyrie Chronicles 200k total sales for ps3?

 

[sinnergy]

Yes, every console generation according to some

 

[Natureboy99]

Could be.

Its because producing games for snes/psx1/ps2 (etc) was cheap with good profit

produce games for ps3/x360 was fiirst hit in their budgets

now why would u invest to produce ps4/xone game, when u can invest this cash to create 10 mobile titles with 500% better revenue (because mobile games are cheap to produce - like old days)

Because you want to create something amazing. Do people become game developers to just make money like it's any old job, or is it because they have a dream they want to create and share?

 

[Mass Effect]

No, but I don't think there is room for 3 successful consoles. The market just isn't there. Last generation was an outlier.

 

[Cathcart]

Yes. As is your life. And the universe.

But screw it, Witcher is out next week woooooo!

 

[Herman Cain]

According to recent news reports, both Sega and Konami will be focusing more on making games for mobile platforms than consoles. Will we see other publishers following suit?

There has been a severe lack of variety of games produced for current console systems compare to 3 generations ago. Also, the amount of games produced for current gen has been very disappointing and it seems to be on a downward trend. Not to mention, the lack of new IP's and too many remakes, series and ports.

It got to the point where it is very risky for publishers to invest in the development of a console game, which leads them to only green light a safer, proven formula instead of projects that explore uncharted new territories. It makes sense on a business point of view, sure. Mobile game investments are much less riskier compare to the console counter-parts. They take significantly less time to produce and the ratio of profits gained to cost and time invested is high.

Nintendo might have foreseen this considering their rumored 'NX' system is a hybrid mobile-console device.

Is mobile gaming the future? Or is it just a phase?

You use 2 companies of the utmost irrelevance for this. Wait for either Activison/EA/Take 2/WB/Capcom/Namco or one of the 3 consoles producers to leave.

 

[Commanche Raisin Toast]

There will always be a need for big experiences that PC and consoles are offering. Things that, even if mobile phones had infinite horse power, would still be better suited for a big screen. Those experiences aren't going away, but the form factors or delivery methods might change.

I don't think click here to buy more coins is going to decimate thee need for those experiences in the market. If they all suddenly vanished and all we were left with was f2p mobile junk eventually the need for bigger and better would arise.

 

[Obliterator]

Yep - few big companies with their clone games for mainstream and thats it.

Remember Sega's masterpiece Valkyrie Chronicles 200k total sales for ps3?

Call them clone games all you want. The consumers have spoken, Ubisoft titles do massive numbers. Their games are the definition of AAA.

Also there is plenty of smaller indie games for those that don't like the huge AAA model.

Basically the only thing that happened to the console industry is the middle fell out. All these companies that are exiting are mid tier publishers and or Japanese.

The big players EA, Activision, Ubisoft, SE, 2K, etc. are all still here and are pretty much all still successful. The middle tier totally fell out though due to a rise in production cost.

The future of console development by and large will be either massive AAA games with multi hundred man teams or drastically smaller indie teams and titles. Not a whole lot in between.

 

[Kureransu]

Honesty, I believe console gaming is going to shrink this gen because of lack of output. It's great that you can move hardware, but if you're not moving software, you're it's a moot point. The balance of output vs. development cost are just too great. Last gen started out with tonnes of titles, but it wound down significantly. What do we get now. maybe 30-50 titles a year across all platforms (speaking only retail releases)?

Remember when they used to brag about the amount of software that would be coming? Gen six they bragged about 100 titles being released by years end. I know they weren't all amazing, but they didn't have to be amazing, just different and fun. they generally had a price to reflect it as well.

I'm hoping things get better as we move forward. But i can say I'm not a fan of the lack of software.

Someone posted games in different genres to show variety, but was only positing 1 or 2 games per genre, which i think even proves the point more. Besides FPS, we're lucky to get 2 variations of games in other genres. Which bites. because that takes away variety in the genre as well. ah well.

 

[Bogey]

I don't think so.

Mobile Gaming in my view is comparable to Free to Play games. Yes, some companies made a ton of money with it, and suddenly all publishers started thinking it's the new hot thing and everything has to be Free to play and/or a mobile game now.

That's what Crytek tried, and it almost bankrupted them.And if you look at the big mobile game devs (Zynga etc.), they're in heavy economic turmoil already as well.

Mobile games have their niche, and it may not even be the smallest of all niches. But I don't think there's room (and potential customer money) for tons of publishers financially, and I don't think a lot of players are about to migrate from Console to Mobile games.
Or in other words: There's a market for mobile games, but I don't think console gamers are a big part of that market. Not too many people will suddently stop buying console games in favor of buying a mobile game instead. I'd think those target audiences are relatively uncorrelated from each other.

Maybe sometime in the more distant future, mobile devices are so powerful that you can just plug them into your tv and use them for your games - well strictly speaking you can do that already, but the performance gap is still quite huge and I don't see it narrowing enough anytime soon.

 

[solokazama]

To those debating we have clear proof about how much console gaming is thriving. Ubisoft just had a record year and its a company built on AAA consoles titles.

Mobile can he massive and growing and consoles can be healthy and stable. The two are not mutually exclusive.

Because you want to create something amazing. Do people become game developers to just make money like it's any old job, or is it because they have a dream they want to create and share?

but u know producers arent developers? first onex invest cash, second ones are passionate dudes and develop; if there is no cash, then there is nothing to develop

Few months ago I asked Taro Yoko about new Drakengard/Nier game and he said it clearly - it all depends what Square wants - if they will provide him budget for new game. For now there are no plans so he cant create "amazing game".

 

[mazpratim]

AAA console gaming is definitely starting to die out, we already lost most of the AA market. Budgets are getting higher but the actual audience is shrinking. Kids play on mobile and PC way more than consoles now and that's what they'll stick to since they're growing up with it. The older video game audience can't sustain the console market forever since they'll eventually age and play video games less and less over time. Something like VR needs to shake up the industry to stop the decline.

 

[Obliterator]

AAA console gaming is definitely starting to die out, we already lost most of the AA market. Budgets are getting higher but the actual audience is shrinking. Kids play on mobile and PC way more than consoles now and that's what they'll stick to since they're growing up with it. The older video game audience can't sustain the console market forever since they'll eventually age and play video games less and less over time. Something like VR needs to shake up the industry to stop the decline.

I do agree that in 10 to 20 years it will be interesting to see how this shakes out. It seems the vast majority of kids are growing up with either mobile or PC F2P stuff. That could cause a huge shift.

I think we for sure have at least one good console cycle after the current one left, but after that? Tricky question and honestly to far out to accurately predict with any real data.

 

[solokazama]

Call them clone games all you want. The consumers have spoken, Ubisoft titles do massive numbers. Their games are the definition of AAA.

Also there is plenty of smaller indie games for those that don't like the huge AAA model.

Basically the only thing that happened to the console industry is the middle fell out. All these companies that are exiting are mid tier publishers and or Japanese.

The big players EA, Activision, Ubisoft, SE, 2K, etc. are all still here and are pretty much all still successful. The middle tier totally fell out though due to a rise in production cost.

The future of console development by and large will be either massive AAA games with multi hundred man teams or drastically smaller indie teams and titles. Not a whole lot in between.

I see nothing wrong in there from business stand point. I ran IT company so it is abvious.

But from my gamer soul - AAA games these days are just too dull for me (with few exceptions); and im worried that more and more publishers gonna transit from investing in niche games (dont mistake it with indie) to mobiles - its more profitable and whole process is shorter.
If that happens it gonna be hard to find new cool serie because everything gonna be crafted by business machine. Souls series is nice example. At first Sony didnt even want to release it for us/eu because it was just niche game (thats what they thou). We did a lot of KR imports (it provided english subtitles) and fans did a lot of pressure on Sony. After few years we have excellet niche genre.

Im just worried there gonna be fewer situations like that - companies focus more on AAA/mobiles without taking up risk because costs of development are huge these times.

 

[Kureransu]

Call them clone games all you want. The consumers have spoken, Ubisoft titles do massive numbers. Their games are the definition of AAA.

Also there is plenty of smaller indie games for those that don't like the huge AAA model.

Basically the only thing that happened to the console industry is the middle fell out. All these companies that are exiting are mid tier publishers and or Japanese.

The big players EA, Activision, Ubisoft, SE, etc. are all still here and are pretty much all still successful. The middle tier totally fell out though due to a rise in production cost.

The future of console development by and large will be either massive AAA games with multi hundred man teams or drastically smaller indie teams and titles. Not a whole lot in between.

THQ, Akklaim, Konami, and Sega were not mid tier (sure the later were japanese, but you mention S-E). So many developers were killed last gen it's not even funny. Have 4 big hitters who put out only 4-5 games (ea has more becuase of their sports lineup) a year isn't signs of a great market. The smaller hitters like WB, Tecmo-Koei only put out 2-3. First Party, besides Nintendo is also 2-3.

Again I'm only talking retail. So I'm not really including in the digital only titles.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

While it's important to retain the Wii data in this kind of analysis, it's also important to not conflate a limited data set on the whole industry. The reality is that Nintendo's failure to capitalize on the Wii's userbase is largely a problem for Nintendo, and not so much for the industry in general. They're in trouble because they can only reach their pre-existing audiences, and their failings in the console space reflect that. While it would have been preferable for the rest of the industry to see that market segment to spread sales to other consoles, it's not a segment that they had much draw on to begin with.

There are multiple unstated assumptions in your statement here however, and that's fundamentally the problem with trying to say one demographic matters more than another and its fine to exclude data as a result, because most people don't cleanly fit into particular demographics.

For example, the PS2 was a huge success, and at least some of that success can be attributed to being a cheap DVD player. At least some of that success can be attributed to non-traditional titles like Buzz, SingStar and EyeToy. At least some of that success was in games targeted at children and young audiences, from original efforts like Jak & Daxter / Ratchet & Clank / Spyro et al, to licenced property tie-ins like Spongebob Squarepants or whatever.

As I said, ultimately who is buying hardware and software is meaningless as long as they're buying software. I'm sure there are people who recently bought Korra based on it buying a Platinum title more than it being a TV show. Not everyone who is looking forward to Batman is doing so because they don't really play games, but they love Batman comics. The Wii (and even more so the DS) had huge successes with 'real' titles, and it really doesn't matter if it was because that sale came from a super-clued in hardcore gamer, or someone who had never gamed before and was just buying what had a nice looking cover in the software charts at the local supermarket.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Holy hyperbole batman! Its that time again! Jesus. Console SALES are contracting from the previous gen, but actual investment in consoles is steady.

We'll end up with just over 6th gen numbers for this gen i'm guessing, maybe more depending on how XB1 shakes out, but this does not indicate a death. Consoles are merely becoming one of many different ways to play games, not the biggest and best way, that doesn't mean they are dead.

If Konami is what spurred this thread on, its probably ridiculous to draw from them that consoles are dying. They found more profitable ventures than core gaming and ones they thought were more worth it. Many other companies feel otherwise and still invest.

 

[Obliterator]

THQ, Akklaim, Konami, and Sega were not mid tier (sure the later were japanese, but you mention S-E). So many developers were killed last gen it's not even funny. Have 4 big hitters who put out only 4-5 games (ea has more becuase of their sports lineup) a year isn't signs of a great market. The smaller hitters like WB, Tecmo-Koei only put out 2-3. First Party, besides Nintendo is also 2-3.

Again I'm only talking retail. So I'm not really including in the digital only titles.

THQ and Akklaim killed themselves with god awful management not any sort of decline with consoles.

 

[Vincent Grayson]

There are multiple unstated assumptions in your statement here however, and that's fundamentally the problem with trying to say one demographic matters more than another and its fine to exclude data as a result, because most people don't cleanly fit into particular demographics.

For example, the PS2 was a huge success, and at least some of that success can be attributed to being a cheap DVD player. At least some of that success can be attributed to non-traditional titles like Buzz, SingStar and EyeToy. At least some of that success was in games targeted at children and young audiences, from original efforts like Jak & Daxter / Ratchet & Clank / Spyro et al, to licenced property tie-ins like Spongebob Squarepants or whatever.

As I said, ultimately who is buying hardware and software is meaningless as long as they're buying software. I'm sure there are people who recently bought Korra based on it buying a Platinum title more than it being a TV show. Not everyone who is looking forward to Batman is doing so because they don't really play games, but they love Batman comics. The Wii (and even more so the DS) had huge successes with 'real' titles, and it really doesn't matter if it was because that sale came from a super-clued in hardcore gamer, or someone who had never gamed before and was just buying what had a nice looking cover in the software charts at the local supermarket.

Didn't the Wii have an utterly abysmal attach rate?

 

[StevieP]

Didn't the Wii have an utterly abysmal attach rate?

I can't believe this is still a thing on GAF of all places.

900 million pieces of software on 100 million consoles, give or take.

That's in line with most successful consoles, and wrecks the argument that it was a device that was purchased by grandmamma for wii bowling and put in a closet after 3 play sessions. In fact, if that actually happened (and I'm sure it did) then some savvy gamer purchased even more titles to make up for grandmamma.

 

[entremet]

I don't think so.

They're becoming more like PCs, though.

-more download only titles
-less AAA titles

 

[Fox Mulder]

It makes sense for Japanese companies like Konami and Sega to go mobile. The japanese market has been shifting there more and more, plus they have profitable ventures in other areas outside console gaming.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Didn't the Wii have an utterly abysmal attach rate?

It has an attach rate marginally less than the PS3.

 

[Kureransu]

Didn't the Wii have an utterly abysmal attach rate?

8.84 isn't abysmal by any means.

 

[Bl@de]

Yes (in the long run - 10-20 years)
No (in the short run)

 

[Clockwork5]

Sales figures of consoles would suggest no. They would also suggest that suggesting consoles are dead or dying is absurd.

 

[entremet]

Yes (in the long run - 10-20 years)
No (in the short run)

This basically.

Tech is becoming standardized. Custom hardware is dying.

 

[10k]

It's returning to niche status like it was pre 1995.

 

[redcrayon]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=963700

Thanks, interesting figures.

 

[gelf]

The most commonly played PC games tend to be PC-only titles to begin with, so it's not too much concern to them. In fact, the PC market is largely thriving because of the sheer plethora of smaller titles that have little to do with the console market.

While I accept that, its still a concern for both if the market is losing the type of games Konami and others made regardless of the system its published on. I don't think you can really make the argument PC gaming is eating console gamings lunch so to speak if PC users are tending to play completely different games. I don't give a shit if a game is on PC or console but both platforms are lesser value to me if these kinds of games aren't being made anymore.

That said I'm not that pessimistic, I think some indies are growing and filling the gaps left by the death of the mid tier which is a boon to both ecosystems. And I really think consoles will continue to have market at least until the point a (well marketed) under the TV PC box is indistinguishable from a console to the mass market. But that kind of PC would essentially be a console, so how could you say the console market is dead.

 

[BPoole]

Traditional console gaming died a long time ago outside of Nintendo. The PS4/X1 are just restrictive PCs at this point and it's hard to justify owning an entirely separate platform just to play a handful of exclusives.

 

[Raist]

http://www.statista.com/statistics/276768/global-unit-sales-of-video-game-consoles/

Ye it is really growing man. look at that growth.

This graph starts with the peak years for gen 7 and ends with the early years of gen 8.
In other words it's incredibly misleading.

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

Traditional console gaming died a long time ago outside of Nintendo. The PS4/X1 are just restrictive PCs at this point and it's hard to justify owning an entirely separate platform just to play a handful of exclusives.

This is such a stupid argument. Every electronic device is a computer. So what?

 

[omonimo]

It really isn't. The op is certainly doing the "sky is falling" to the extreme, sure, but his premise isn't wrong. It's on a downturn from both a hardware and software perspective. Demographics are being lost or pushed out, and software support continues to consolidate on the aaa model. Mobile and PC are currently the only places where there is growth. The PS4 selling well isn't going to change that reality.

PC grow? Uh? I knew big companies survive thanks to the console sales. Everytime I read about pc growth ,I have a terrible headache.

 

[MajorTom]

No.

 

[RooMHM]

Ok I'll bite...

why?

or is this the obligatory drive by shit post?

Because I think consoles are a problem for games quality. It imposes limits that hurt creativity and technical progress.

 

[Olengie]

See you at the next console generation.

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

Because I think consoles are a problem for games quality. It imposes limits that hurt creativity and technical progress.

I mean you're wrong. But continue to live in that fantasy world anyway

 

[redcrayon]

There are always going to be publishers leaving and joining the console (or any other media) business, it's not like any technology-based company has to stick with one form of media forever. For every article bemoaning the loss of one, it would be nice to see others welcoming new, small publishers with new ideas.

 

[kevm3]

The console market/video game market was supposed to crash like 10 times already and yet it's still here.

There might be a shift towards mobile, especially in Japan, but I doubt console gaming is going to up and disappear any time soon.