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Is Console Gaming coming to a close?

It is, slowly but surely. It isn't beyond saving but the industry needs to understand that it simply doesn't have the luxury of multiple competing hardware platforms that are incompatible with each other. The audience isn't big enough to allow that level of fragmentation.The dreaded by some "one console future" is the direction that we will probably be heading in. Something like the Steam Machines where multiple makers provide hardware variations based on the same hardware and software base. Today's platform holders will likely become service providers and gamers will no longer have to buy two or three different boxes in order to have access to all the games out there.
 
The hardcore gamers on this site may want to deny it but the value prop of home consoles for the casual gamer is shrinking dramatically.

What do you define as casual gamer though? You have many gamers that might only pickup the yearly sports title and Call of Duty. I consider them casual and consoles are still the best place(sometimes only place) to do so.
 
What do you define as casual gamer though? You have many gamers that might only pickup the yearly sports title and Call of Duty. I consider them casual and consoles are still the best place(sometimes only place) to do so.

Consoles may be the only place to do so, but that doesn't mean those gamers are going to be willing to drop $300-400 for the price of entry anymore to experience it, when other forms of media are becoming more prominent and competing for their hard-earned money.
 
I can think of... Tokyo Jungle, annnnd... Journey I guess? Nothing else fits that description from 2010 onward, unless Wikipedia is missing entries.

in addition to those two:

Unfinished Swan
Tearaway
Rain
LBP2
Puppeteer
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time

Off the top of my head.
 
The Wii was an anomaly, just look at Nintendo's console sales trend. Each console sold less than the last, with the trend being dropping about 10m each gen. The Wii sold at insane levels for a few years. I don't remember who posted the best April sales in the nap thread, might have been you, but the highest April for the Wii is over 700k while the highest outside the Wii was the 360 with just under 300k.

I would have said the PS1 was an anomaly until the PS2 showed Sony's ability to sell. Nintendo's handheld trend looks similar to their console trend DS does look like an anomaly there as well.

Ah yes, in that case the PS3 is an anomaly, as well then. After all the PS1 sold 100m, PS2 sold 150m and therefore the PS3 should have sold 200m but didn't.

See how ridiculous it sounds. And yes, I'm the one who posted the numbers in the NPD thread showing how Wii sold.

The console market is the console market. The Wii did very well to capture casuals first, where as the PS2 captured casuals after 2004. Just like the 360 captured casual market after 2010. Casual and hardcore gamers exist and always have, even this gen despite that mobile is now much bigger. Of course the console market has contracted as I said before, but that doesn't mean the Wii is an anomaly. Maybe if we're talking anomaly in the sense that it doesn't fit sales trends then ok, agreed. But when people have used this word in the past they mean that the Wii shouldn't be counted as part of the console market back then.

Would you say that Apple is an anomaly in the smartphone market or that Tivo was an anomaly.
 
I can't even begin to get my head round the opinion that console gaming is going away anytime soon. It's just so far out there.

Streaming will kill console and PC gaming simultaneously.
 
What do you define as casual gamer though? You have many gamers that might only pickup the yearly sports title and Call of Duty. I consider them casual and consoles are still the best place(sometimes only place) to do so.

A lot of people here own every console or at least buy their system of choice on day 1 . They also buy 10+ full priced titles a year. They keep up on news and consider gaming a major part of their life. I'm talking about everyone else - the more casual gamers. My argument is that as the value prop for consoles falls more and more casuals will drop out of the console market. They don't NEED console gaming like the more hardcore people here and many of them will spend their time and money elsewhere.
 
A lot of people here own every console or at least buy their system of choice on day 1 . They also buy 10+ full priced titles a year. They keep up on news and consider gaming a major part of their life. I'm talking about everyone else - the more casual gamers. My argument is that as the value prop for consoles falls more and more casuals will drop out of the console market. They don't NEED console gaming like the more hardcore people here and many of them will spend their time and money elsewhere.

why would the value proposition for consoles fall? They get cheaper, not more expensive over time as the library grows.

As for "spending time and money elsewhere" sure, that's always been a possibility. But console gaming isn't new, this goes back to the 1970s. Unless you want to point at the PC, no one has come up with a perfect substitute for what console gaming offers to the average consumer- and all indications are that phone and tablet gaming aren't it either.
 
why would the value proposition for consoles fall? They get cheaper, not more expensive over time as the library grows.

As for "spending time and money elsewhere" sure, that's always been a possibility. But console gaming isn't new, this goes back to the 1970s. Unless you want to point at the PC, no one has come up with a perfect substitute for what console gaming offers to the average consumer- and all indications are that phone and tablet gaming aren't it either.

Has the value proposition fallen for buying movies? How about music? Gaming is a different form or entertainment but not that different. I think its obvious that the console gaming market is in the process of being disrupted. I'm not saying it will go away overnight but it will be a very different space going forward.
 
Ah yes, in that case the PS3 is an anomaly, as well then. After all the PS1 sold 100m, PS2 sold 150m and therefore the PS3 should have sold 200m but didn't.

See how ridiculous it sounds. And yes, I'm the one who posted the numbers in the NPD thread showing how Wii sold.

The console market is the console market. The Wii did very well to capture casuals first, where as the PS2 captured casuals after 2004. Just like the 360 captured casual market after 2010. Casual and hardcore gamers exist and always have, even this gen despite that mobile is now much bigger. Of course the console market has contracted as I said before, but that doesn't mean the Wii is an anomaly. Maybe if we're talking anomaly in the sense that it doesn't fit sales trends then ok, agreed. But when people have used this word in the past they mean that the Wii shouldn't be counted as part of the console market back then.

Would you say that Apple is an anomaly in the smartphone market or that Tivo was an anomaly.

We wouldnt call Apple or the iPhone an anomaly because of the track record with sales.....every new version outsells the previous one. No matter what the competition is doing. Apple definitely cant be called an anomaly because of what Google is doing with Android.

There is a reason ppl do this with the Wii. I used to do it, I dont or try not to now. I would say lets imagine if the Wii sold as much as their next highest home console...which was about 60 million. If the Wii had sold that...whenever it's brought up would probably have different responses. Lets say it was a 3 way split with 80+ million last gen...still might have different responses. Still could be contraction this gen no matter what based on sales of the XBO and Wii U so far.....but Nintendo alone would be the cause of it....based on their track record with home consoles.

Unless the Wii sold around 60 million....then the growth last gen wouldnt be so high...but it would still be growth from the previous gen. And maybe all the talk about consoles being doomed would be less. Remember that time when those articles about consoles being dead because the Wii U sold so poorly were popping up here n there? They kinda died down after the XBO and PS4 launched.

Put it like this...if Nintendo home console sales were a stock...it would be a very risky one. With more of a chance to lose lots of money and low returns. But a chance to strike it real big at least once...If Sony's were a stock...it would be a safer one. With still a chance for a big return or decent returns overall.

Even MS's would be a safer bet if you look at the sales of the orig Xbox to the 360 to the XBO.

Thats why ppl mention Wii and anomaly in the same sentence. I do think its unfair to try to take it out of last gen completely tho. A sale is a sale is a sale. No matter who it sold to.


Sega and Konami are your measuring sticks?

Looking at it like this....I think there's no cause for alarm until other big ones start focusing more on mobile. Ubisoft has a handful of PSN games, maybe XBL. Some could make the jump to mobile no problem, no adapting needed. Instead of focusing on mobile, maybe companies need to put more PSN, XBL games out there. Price point is low like mobile in some cases. In some cases even free...like mobile.
 
Has the value proposition fallen for buying movies? How about music?

for buying them? yes. Consuming them as a form of entertainment? No. You could say "game streaming of console titles will overtake physical discs" but this is not the same thing.

Gaming is a different form or entertainment but not that different. I think its obvious that the console gaming market is in the process of being disrupted. I'm not saying it will go away overnight but it will be a very different space going forward.

given the length of the thread, I don't think this is obvious at all.
 
given the length of the thread, I don't think this is obvious at all.

I would also say it isnt obvious based on the features that have been added over the years. XBO....you could basically get rid of a cable box if you are using the over the air only boxes. Thats kinda huge when you think about it.

Sony and MS consoles have doubled as CD, DVD, Blu Ray players over the years. Streaming music and movie apps?

The...only...thing that might kill consoles is Alienware Alpha and how that does in the future. If it stayed closed off to just the Steam library ....all it will do is make PC gaming more attractive for Steam users and probably get the attention of those who like comfy couch gaming. . If you can use other game portals (Origin, etc), retail games on the desktop side of it....it has a chance to be huge for PC gaming overall and could put pressure on console gaming.

I read a thread like this before. It was on an AOL message board. Antagonist, maybe? The year was 1997.

Really? Interesting,.

AOL was garbage tho even back then...lol. Setting it up, signing on, etc. There really was no other choices. I think the consoles are a lil above AOL as far as products go. Once something alot better came along...the writing was on the wall. Back then when it became a time you didnt need to sign on a pop up screen to use internet...that was the beginning of the end for AOL. DSL killed AOL....and that needed a pop up screen to sign on. Cable came and just took over.
 
Still waiting for someone to explain exactly why no consoles means a unified environment for anything, when it's nowhere close To it due to the nature of a competitive market.

Steam machines, Dell, etc for hardware and multiple platforms for software that don't talk to each other.
I just don't see why anyone would think this would change. It's like Apple and Android all over again.
 
We've got a pretty good guess based on the last, oh, ten years or so of publicly available market data detailing the performance of home consoles in Japan.

Only if you pretend that all situations are equal. None of the consoles in the last 10 years would be equivalent to a theoretically well-supported PS4.

It'd be like saying the next iPhone will fail because Windows Phone and Blackberry aren't doing well, so I'm going to totally ditch support for the iPhone before it even releases.
 
No way, look at the sales for PS4 and XBO, far from dead.

I think its more core gamers are leaving the PS4 and XBO scene and going more towards PC. Games like Madden, FIFA, GTA, Call of Duty, etc are still all very popular and very profitable.

I think though this is more of a discussion of AAA gaming being dead then console gaming being dead. Even that I don't agree with.
 
A lot of people here own every console or at least buy their system of choice on day 1 . They also buy 10+ full priced titles a year. They keep up on news and consider gaming a major part of their life. I'm talking about everyone else - the more casual gamers. My argument is that as the value prop for consoles falls more and more casuals will drop out of the console market. They don't NEED console gaming like the more hardcore people here and many of them will spend their time and money elsewhere.
I agree with this.
I work with someone who owns a PS4 and its nothing more than a Fifa machine but his iPad is we're he does most of his gaming.
I used to really like my iPad and iPhone for gaming but the lack of update to fix TWEWY left a sour taste in my mouth.
 
I think it's just fragmenting. Japan seems much less interested in it while Europe and North America still enjoy the platform. We'll see what happens as the economy begins to sputter over the next few years. If discretionary spending takes a hit, a lot of the game sector will get hit, and it may be harder to justify such hefty expenditures as consoles, and the $60+ games that dominate much of their libraries.
 
Sega & Konami make awful decisions. I wouldn't judge the trajectory of the industry based on what they do.
 
I agree with this.
I work with someone who owns a PS4 and its nothing more than a Fifa machine but his iPad is we're he does most of his gaming.
I used to really like my iPad and iPhone for gaming but the lack of update to fix TWEWY left a sour taste in my mouth.

This is my group of friends and family.

My brother went from a huge Xbox fan to buying a XB1 only because he had giftcards. I think he subscribed to EA Access and that's it. The only games he owns are ones we bought him for his birthday. Occasionally he rents from Redbox.

My IT department went from weekly-monthly 360 MP matches to none of them buying the new consoles and instead playing on iPads. They don't play the consoles since they got tired of paying for live since most if not all were only playing when they played together which was less and less.

My niece and nephew care more about downloading new iPad games then playing console games. I gave them one of my 360s along with a stack of games I had back from my Media Center days and it collects dust. Skylanders is about the only game they like and they wanted the mobile version.
 
I would also say it isnt obvious based on the features that have been added over the years. XBO....you could basically get rid of a cable box if you are using the over the air only boxes. Thats kinda huge when you think about it.

Playstation Vue is an even better argument for this. Pricing isn't 100% "there" where it will definitely be a threat to cable, but make no mistake this is coming.

PS and Xbox are rapidly turning into walled gardens of gaming, music, streaming video and television, and there's not a whole lot of players out there with the infrastructure to compete with them.
 
Playstation Vue is an even better argument for this. Pricing isn't 100% "there" where it will definitely be a threat to cable, but make no mistake this is coming.

PS and Xbox are rapidly turning into walled gardens of gaming, music, streaming video and television, and there's not a whole lot of players out there with the infrastructure to compete with them.

Uh.. I think netflix is a lot more worrying to cable companies than playstation vue. And I thought we were talking about how console gaming is on a downward trend? That isn't gaming related, and in fact predicates the need to offer more value proposition to people to consider buying the boxes.
 
It is, slowly but surely. It isn't beyond saving but the industry needs to understand that it simply doesn't have the luxury of multiple competing hardware platforms that are incompatible with each other. The audience isn't big enough to allow that level of fragmentation.The dreaded by some "one console future" is the direction that we will probably be heading in. Something like the Steam Machines where multiple makers provide hardware variations based on the same hardware and software base. Today's platform holders will likely become service providers and gamers will no longer have to buy two or three different boxes in order to have access to all the games out there.

as long as sony is making the consoles then that would be ok. but we're still far off from that future.
 
You're so clever. Can I be as clever as you? Indeed there is no worry at all. My apologies

Nice article about canadian cable companies. I'm sure it's informative to someone, somewhere.

Let me explain a little. Netflix is nice and all, but it's not new- it's been around for years and coexists quite well with a cable subscription. You have a few cord cutters here and there but they're not in the majority. Hell, from your own article:

That’s not to say that Netflix is steamrolling the competition, because it’s not. Since most Netflix subscribers also typically pay for conventional cable or satellite service, the company is in some ways just another subscription service. But in a very short time it has become a major force in the Canadian broadcast and cable landscape.

The reason WHY Playstation Vue and services like it (such as Sling TV) are more of a threat is because netflix doesn't carry anything live. At all. want to watch the mad men finale? you'll be waiting six months. Sports fan? forget about it, you're paying for cable no matter what.

Vue (and similar services) allow you to cut the cord completely. You can pick and choose which channels you do and do not want, and They duplicate EVERYTHING down to the broadcast networks, and yes, they carry live sports on top of that. We have Vue in the Philadelphia area. For some bizarre reason you can get Comcast Sports Net on it, which has an exclusive arrangement with most of the sports teams here. You can't get that channel on Satellite OR FIOS, it's been "the" reason to sign up with Comcast over alternatives for decades now.

Again, Vue has some issues- the price is higher than most people would prefer, and Disney/ABC isn't on board, but these are issues that will be resolved eventually. If Sony doesn't do it, then Microsoft or Dish will. Most people live in an area where there is no "alternative" to their cable company. Despite having a virtual monopoly on most of the philly metro area, Everyone hates Comcast, but can't get away from it. Netflix doesn't carry enough content. This new wave of services changes that.
 
Whether one thinks console gaming will or will not die within the next decade (it won't), one should be careful not to discount mobile gaming as some sort of fad. There are 500 million active users of the Apple App Store. Add that to users of the Play and Microsoft mobile store. Everyone has a phone capable of gaming. It may not be the gaming that us on this forum would consider ideal, but if a billion (edit:2 billion projected by next year) people have a smartphone, that makes the phone the biggest gaming platform by miles.

Mobile gaming is not a fad. It will have its booms, bubbles, and corrections, but it's here to stay and will continue to grow with newer generations of people. More and more publishers will choose to get into mobile gaming, and more of those business-minded publishers will say "Hey, we don't have to make a triple A title and have it do extremely well to continue thriving, so let's trash this project. "
 
Whether one thinks console gaming will or will not die within the next decade (it won't), one should be careful not to discount mobile gaming as some sort of fad. There are 500 million active users of the Apple App Store. Add that to users of the Play and Microsoft mobile store. Everyone has a phone capable of gaming. It may not be the gaming that us on this forum would consider ideal, but if a billion (edit:2 billion projected by next year) people have a smartphone, that makes the phone the biggest gaming platform by miles.

Mobile gaming is not a fad. It will have its booms, bubbles, and corrections, but it's here to stay and will continue to grow with newer generations of people. More and more publishers will choose to get into mobile gaming, and more of those business-minded publishers will say "Hey, we don't have to make a triple A title and have it do extremely well to continue thriving, so let's trash this project. "

I'm on board with this. I don't think anyone here is dumb enough to claim that mobile gaming is a fad like motion controls were, and will somehow flame out never to be seen again.

Mobile gaming though seems to be establishing itself as a separate market from console and PC gaming, much like how cheap/free broadcast tv exists as a separate market from $15.00 a pop IMAX movies. The two are complimentary, not competitive.
 
You'd be wrong, but that's fine. not the first time it's happened in this thread.

Nice article about canadian cable companies. I'm sure it's informative to someone, somewhere.
Jesus dude calm down. Your vitriol is going to damage my computer if it gets any stronger.

Also same thing everyone else is saying. Just because Sega and Konami are bowing out doesn't mean the industry is doomed. They should by no means be used to judge the state of the industry as a whole.
 
Nice article about canadian cable companies. I'm sure it's informative to someone, somewhere.

Let me explain a little. Netflix is nice and all, but it's not new- it's been around for years and coexists quite well with a cable subscription. You have a few cord cutters here and there but they're not in the majority. Hell, from your own article:



The reason WHY Playstation Vue and services like it (such as Sling TV) are more of a threat is because netflix doesn't carry anything live. At all. want to watch the mad men finale? you'll be waiting six months. Sports fan? forget about it, you're paying for cable no matter what.

Vue (and similar services) allow you to cut the cord completely. You can pick and choose which channels you do and do not want, and They duplicate EVERYTHING down to the broadcast networks, and yes, they carry live sports on top of that. We have Vue in the Philadelphia area. For some bizarre reason you can get Comcast Sports Net on it, which has an exclusive arrangement with most of the sports teams here. You can't get that channel on Satellite OR FIOS, it's been "the" reason to sign up with Comcast over alternatives for decades now.

Again, Vue has some issues- the price is higher than most people would prefer, and Disney/ABC isn't on board, but these are issues that will be resolved eventually. If Sony doesn't do it, then Microsoft or Dish will. Most people live in an area where there is no "alternative" to their cable company. Despite having a virtual monopoly on most of the philly metro area, Everyone hates Comcast, but can't get away from it. Netflix doesn't carry enough content. This new wave of services changes that.

You must live in a dream world if you honestly don't believe the traditional providers see Netflix as a threat to business. The fact that Netflix pays cable companies extra should tell you how naiive that viewpoint is, live TV or not. Bandwidth caps are a direct response to an increase in both downloading and streaming content, live or otherwise.

I'm on board with this. I don't think anyone here is dumb enough to claim that mobile gaming is a fad like motion controls were, and will somehow flame out never to be seen again.

Mobile gaming though seems to be establishing itself as a separate market from console and PC gaming, much like how cheap/free broadcast tv exists as a separate market from $15.00 a pop IMAX movies. The two are complimentary, not competitive.

Lol. Motion control was such a fad, just like touch screen gaming. Neither of which are used at all in the burgeoning mobile market that isn't at all a threat to the traditional market or its publishers and developers.
 
You must live in a dream world if you honestly don't believe the traditional providers see Netflix as a threat to business. The fact that Netflix pays cable companies extra should tell you how naiive that viewpoint is, live TV or not. Bandwidth caps are a direct response to an increase in both downloading and streaming content, live or otherwise.

Netflix, as pointed out by the article you helpfully posted- isn't a threat to cable tv, it's complimentary. Virtually all of netflix's subscribers are signed up to cable on top of the service.

as for why Netflix pays cable networks, and why bandwidth caps exist, it's not because netflix is a threat, it's because they CAN. Youtube was also getting throttled to hell and back before google cut deals. No one sane thinks Youtube is any kind of threat to cable. Greed is the name of the game here.

Lol. Motion control was such a fad, just like touch screen gaming. Neither of which are used at all in the burgeoning mobile market that isn't at all a threat to the traditional market or its publishers and developers.

uh..yeah? not sure what kind of reality you're living in where motion control is still a thing. Last I checked nintendo barely acknowledged it despite the success of the Wii, and Microsoft got burned so hard with Kinect 2.0 they STILL haven't recovered. As for mobile- I'm not aware of ANY relevant games that use motion controls on cellphones. Perhaps you could enlighten us as to what these blockbusters might be.

Jesus dude calm down. Your vitriol is going to damage my computer if it gets any stronger..

I actually AM calm, which is the funny bit here. But I'll dial it down, why not.
 
So much denial going on in this thread.

Of course consoles wont disappear immediately, if ever (maybe surviving in some kind of niche). But their capacity for growth is just not here anymore. They will be less and less able to support a big dedicated, especially AAA offer all by themselves.

People who delude themselves into thinking that devices without which most people cant normally function in today society are a fad are seriously out there.
 
It is, slowly but surely. It isn't beyond saving but the industry needs to understand that it simply doesn't have the luxury of multiple competing hardware platforms that are incompatible with each other. The audience isn't big enough to allow that level of fragmentation.The dreaded by some "one console future" is the direction that we will probably be heading in. Something like the Steam Machines where multiple makers provide hardware variations based on the same hardware and software base. Today's platform holders will likely become service providers and gamers will no longer have to buy two or three different boxes in order to have access to all the games out there.

Honestly, that sounds wonderful. Frankly I HATE new hardware, in general. I can't bring myself to get excited about arbitrary tech metrics anymore after 15-20+ years of doing this shit. The less I need to purchase to play more games the better. I don't like the expenditure, I don't like the boxes, I don't like the manuals, the cables, any of it - I just like playing games, hassle-free.

The less exclusivity and the more I can do with one single box, the better.
 
A lot of people here own every console or at least buy their system of choice on day 1 . They also buy 10+ full priced titles a year. They keep up on news and consider gaming a major part of their life. I'm talking about everyone else - the more casual gamers. My argument is that as the value prop for consoles falls more and more casuals will drop out of the console market. They don't NEED console gaming like the more hardcore people here and many of them will spend their time and money elsewhere.

Which my statement still stands. If they want to play NFL football, they still need a console. If they want to play sports titles in general with local co-op, they still need a console. They might only buy two or three games a year but that doesn't mean they don't need a console. If you're talking about the casuals from the Wii era that played bowling, then yes they've moved on.
 
I can't even begin to get my head round the opinion that console gaming is going away anytime soon. It's just so far out there.

Streaming will kill console and PC gaming simultaneously.
I'm a console gamer for life. As long as I can sit on my couch with controller in hand, I'm good.

Streaming...sure. But with the gaming networks need to be rock fucking solid to be able to make this viable. PSN for instance has been spotty now for almost a day. On a weekend no less. This stuff needs to be Netflix solid, IMO.
 
tbh Konami and Sega both made some stupid moves tho before they tapped out. PS2 era was like the last time they weren't strugglin, i mean still making a bunch of good shit.
 
In the classical sense of local multiplayer where you play against/with your friends at the same time, then I'm not wrong.

That;s not what you said originally though is it.

You said that if they want to play NFL then they NEED a console.

Geez, what's with the attitude, the guy is just saying that actually you can play on mobile as well then you get all defensive and start changing what you originally said so to prove that you were never wrong.

The guy was just helping you by showing the statement you made was untrue.

Next time try a post like "Thanks for that, I was/wasn't aware NFL is available on mobile, however I was talking about the full multiplayer modes that are only exclusive to console."

See... much better.
 
In the classical sense of local multiplayer where you play against/with your friends at the same time, then I'm not wrong.

But it has multiplayer.
The only difference is that you don't need to "come over" to play it, because you can play multiplayer anywhere because the odds are pretty good if someone has an iPad they have it there with them wherever they are anyway.

Like at a bar.
Or a coffeeshop.
Or at a BBQ.
Or even playing a quick game of NFL while at someones house already watching a game between quarters.
Or any of the millions of scenarios that exist that most people are more likely to be doing than sat huddled around a console.

Do you see how as a value proposition thats a lot more appealing to the general populace?
 
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