SteamSpy - Approximate LTD sales for every game on Steam (Updated Daily)

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https://twitter.com/Steam_Spy/status/601313291173044224

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https://twitter.com/Steam_Spy/status/601372637957332992
 
I've added recommendation engine. It's pretty simple right now - it uses your most played games to find people like you, then it filters out people based on their similarity to your playing habits and creates a list of games that they play a lot but you don't,

I'm still playing with parameters because it's a resource hog and I'm trying to optimize it.

Could you guys please help me test it? Just go here and paste your steam profile link. You need to be logged in, though, as this thing is pretty demanding on my resources.

Here is how it looks.



Note, if you have Russian or German versions of certain games (Fallout, Wolfenstein) you might see their international version in the list.
 
There's the same special characters bug with clicking on 'Traveller's Tales'.

Any reason Magicka 2 ain't showing?
 
Sijil said:
Should dispel the misconception that most people on Steam only buy games when they're 5$ or less.
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I think it's because a lot of those $60-$70 dollar games are highly anticipated titles and/or some kind of multiplayer component that incentivizes jumping in at the start.
 
galyonkin said:
Yes, they are.

Also, first 10 minutes decide the fate of the game.
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Oh wow, I didn't know Survivarim came out. Also weird that TF2's numbers drop after the first ten minutes. Either people are checking out Source performance or some of those are bot accounts?

galyonkin said:
I've added recommendation engine. It's pretty simple right now - it uses your most played games to find people like you, then it filters out people based on their similarity to your playing habits and creates a list of games that they play a lot but you don't,

I'm still playing with parameters because it's a resource hog and I'm trying to optimize it.

Could you guys please help me test it? Just go here and paste your steam profile link. You need to be logged in, though, as this thing is pretty demanding on my resources.

Here is how it looks.
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Oh neat. Gonna give that a try, but you need the profile to be public like that Word Cloud SteamStat thing that was featured on RockPaperShotgun?
 
Just a question, galyonkin

Sijil said:
Very interesting

https://twitter.com/Steam_Spy/status/606764052220657664/photo/1

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Should dispel the misconception that most people on Steam only buy games when they're 5$ or less.
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Is this based just on launch prices or does it count sales and any kind of fluctuation (i.e. the 20 to 29.99 doesn't consider only titles which were 20 to 29.99 at launch, but also those that maybe were 49.99 to 59.99 at launch and then got a price cut to 20 to 29.99)?
 
For Witcher 3, I wonder if the majority of Polish buy the game retaul, which mean of course, wouldn't show at Steamspy.
 
Mpl90 said:
Just a question, galyonkin
Is this based just on launch prices or does it count sales and any kind of fluctuation (i.e. the 20 to 29.99 doesn't consider only titles which were 20 to 29.99 at launch, but also those that maybe were 49.99 to 59.99 at launch and then got a price cut to 20 to 29.99)?
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It only accounts for the current price of the title. So if a game was 59,99 and now is 29.99, it shows up in 20.00 - 29.99 section on this graph.

I don't have enough historical data to draw this graph based on the original price.
 
maniac-kun said:
******** is banned. Why is this allowed?
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Chartz literally makes up bullshit out of thin air without any sources to back them up and with countless developers publicly admonishing them for presenting outright lies and totally inaccurate sales figures as fact.

SteamSpy does a thorough analysis of publicly available records to create a statistically significant survey that has been verified as accurate by multiple developers.
 
maniac-kun said:
******** is banned. Why is this allowed?
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics

Statistics is the study of the collection, analysis, interpretation, presentation, and organization of data.[1] In applying statistics to, e.g., a scientific, industrial, or societal problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model process to be studied. Populations can be diverse topics such as "all persons living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with all aspects of data including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments.[1]

When census data cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment designs and survey samples. Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can safely extend from the sample to the population as a whole. An experimental study involves taking measurements of the system under study, manipulating the system, and then taking additional measurements using the same procedure to determine if the manipulation has modified the values of the measurements. In contrast, an observational study does not involve experimental manipulation.

Two main statistical methodologies are used in data analysis: descriptive statistics, which summarizes data from a sample using indexes such as the mean or standard deviation, and inferential statistics, which draws conclusions from data that are subject to random variation (e.g., observational errors, sampling variation).[2] Descriptive statistics are most often concerned with two sets of properties of a distribution (sample or population): central tendency (or location) seeks to characterize the distribution's central or typical value, while dispersion (or variability) characterizes the extent to which members of the distribution depart from its center and each other. Inferences on mathematical statistics are made under the framework of probability theory, which deals with the analysis of random phenomena. To make an inference upon unknown quantities, one or more estimators are evaluated using the sample.
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It's a science.
 
Yeah, I'm thinking to use this clustering to add new tab "More games similar to this one",

The good thing about this algorithm is that it should properly categorize new games in about three days and at least 2 or 3 thousand copies sold after release. Previous one could only recommend you games that are already popular.
 
The number of Witcher 1 and Witcher 2 on Steam is amazing despite both game not being released on Steam from the get go. And also as expected, the Polish audience on Steam for both of this game is small (though most of them actually played the game). I guess it'll be very hard for us to gauge accurate digital numbers on Witcher games due to the fact that Steam copy is also redemable on GoG. I wonder how CDPR measure the number with that overlap.
 
Oh wow awesome! Thanks for linking this :) Made me really happy to see that the Mount & Blade franchise is over a million seller! Didn't know it was that big
 
Shengar said:
The number of Witcher 1 and Witcher 2 on Steam is amazing despite both game not being released on Steam from the get go. And also as expected, the Polish audience on Steam for both of this game is small (though most of them actually played the game). I guess it'll be very hard for us to gauge accurate digital numbers on Witcher games due to the fact that Steam copy is also redemable on GoG. I wonder how CDPR measure the number with that overlap.
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Yeah, we need GoGSpy. Hopefully CDP introduce a social API with Galaxy at some point :P
 
Ok, I've added "More like this tab" to every game's page on Steam Spy. It's based on second pass on clustering with games divided into 150 groups by their usage patterns and user assigned tags.

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charlequin said:
I imagine that unlike Valve, CD Projekt actually have a decent incentive to not give people an idea of their total sales volume.
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Well, according to my friends, it's around 10% of Steam sales for their indie titles.

But "around" is a pretty broad word, right? It could vastly differ based on the game's exposure on the main page, it's appeal to GOG audience and so on.
 
I believe the only data we have for GOG versus Steam within the context of CDPR's own games is this:

The Witcher 2 sales said:
Of those [1.1 million] copies, 270,000 were sold via digital distribution platforms: 40,000 on GOG.com, which leaves the lion's share of the remainder presumably to Steam (numbers not disclosed).
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TW1 and TW2 key registration on GOG came a couple of months later, so those who registered their Steam keys on GOG are not included in the 40,000.
 
BernardoOne said:
It will be very interesting to see the stats that will come out of the Steam Sale, that's for sure.
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Indeed. I'd also love to see the chart of overall game ownership after the Steam Sale is concluded, it would be fun to see how many game copies Valve sells in a typical sale period.
 
So because there is a lag of a couple days in these sales reports, we are now starting starting to see the effect of the Steam sale.

Valkyria Chronicles increased from 300-310k presale to 355k as of June 12th.

The first day of sales wasn't all that great, so most boosts weren't as high. It seems like 25% off newer titles isn't enough to drive huge sales.
 
kswiston said:
So because there is a lag of a couple days in these sales reports, we are now starting starting to see the effect of the Steam sale.

Valkyria Chronicles increased from 300-310k presale to 355k as of June 12th.

The first day of sales wasn't all that great, so most boosts weren't as high. It seems like 25% off newer titles isn't enough to drive huge sales.
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I did fast calculations based on 1-day sample from today as opposed to three days sample and it's even more impressive: 451,861 +/- 37,367
 
kswiston said:
So because there is a lag of a couple days in these sales reports, we are now starting starting to see the effect of the Steam sale.

Valkyria Chronicles increased from 300-310k presale to 355k as of June 12th.

The first day of sales wasn't all that great, so most boosts weren't as high. It seems like 25% off newer titles isn't enough to drive huge sales.
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He, Valkyria Chronicles is also my go-to case on SteamSpy. It's very interesting because we have data from the start, then 2 sales at the same level (where you can see the first one causing a bigger bump than the second), and now we'll see the impact of a subsequent sale at a lower price.
 
Dark Messiah did sell almost a million copies which I find interesting. I was always under the impressions that game flopped. Kind of surprised we never got a sequel.
 
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