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[Cave Johnson]

Not to say that it isn't an achievement of some sort, but Uncharted 4's jeep sequence is just a bunch of copy/pasted high-fidelity assets that you truck through at 60 miles an hour, combined with some great looking physics and destruction. Scale is not hard to create if the level of unique details is mostly irrelevant (and it is in this case). That said I wouldn't be surprised if you told me that stage/sequence alone cost 2 million dollars.

The hallmark of Shenmue was completely unique assets and structures, unique NPCs with their own daily routines, and being able to have varied and different conversations with all of them. Whether this can be done on a tiny budget at HD fidelity remains to be seen, but obviously it's all a matter of how big you want the world to be and how much stuff you want to put in it.

For the record, I'm not implying Shenmue could be made with the budget of Broken Age. But where people tend to exaggerate is they were expecting the equivalent production value of the Witcher 3 is required.

In an alternative universe, Shenmue 3 was greenlighted with the same budget this generation, it would wipe the floor of any title for the amount of detail these guys can cram into a single game.

But here I believe the production era at that time should NOT be a hindrance this gen. I just came off watching the Yu Suzuki's GDC keynote and he explained he didn't have the computer tech to render the characters in game so he had them sculpted and then replicated in game. I highly doubt that kind of limitation persist this generation as the recent fallout prove they can generate new faces on the fly.

 

[sleepykyo]

If Sony is financing the game I think that the people who helped in the kickstarter are entitled for a percentage of sales since this project is backed by a multi-billion cooperation, it's really unfair for other kickstarter games and projects and for the idea of kickstarter.

Well thankfully it seems the big, bad Sony isn't funding that much of it. I hope all the concern trolls and their ilk have the other portion of the ten million or so.

 

[SigSig]

Looks like one of those "You have been visited by..." spam images, just saying.

You have been visited by the Yu Suzuki of great game design
Good open world games will come to you, but only if you donate 100$ to his kickstarter

 

[Theonik]

FAQ of the kickstarter have been updated with this

This was there from near the start of the KS.

If you can picture a 30-something with two large monitors working on project due the next day while passively tuning into Sony's conference you'll have a great idea why I don't remember what he said. All I recall is Shenmue, Sony, and kickstarter. I assumed the rest.

I am not going to blame you for not paying attention. I am just pointing out that they had said some things from the start.

 

[LukasTaves]

If sony is not giving them money, then why the hell are they going with the exclusivity? Make it available everywhere so more people can back this up.

And what sony is giving them exactly that makes them saviors? A spotlight in their presser?

 

[Jachaos]

If sony is not giving them money, then why the hell are they going with the exclusivity? Make it available everywhere so more people can back this up.

And what sony is giving them exactly that makes them saviors? A spotlight in their presser?

Listening to the GB interview it seems they're giving some funds/supporting in some way and will help marketing the game. Suzuki wanted to do a Kickstarted and figured the best way to announce it was going to be at Sony's E3 press conference. It was the biggest stage out there so it seems like he himself wanted to be there. Sony obviously felt like that'd be good for them too.

 

[Krejlooc]

I don't think Yu even has an idea of what's totally going down.. just tossing out numbers with vague descriptions.

Here is where you reveal astonishingly little insight into how planning for game development works.

Yu suzuki definitely knows his budget.

 

[Spaghetti]

Here is where you reveal astonishingly little insight into how planning for game development works.

Yu suzuki definitely knows his budget.

yeah, this is three years in the making. the running of the kickstarter may not be top notch, but i'm certain yu is totally aware of what he can and can't do with X amount of money

 

[RustyNails]

Can someone explain to me why YS is having difficulty procuring funding for shenmue 3? Dont publishers see the excitement and hype surrounding it? Relying on crowdsourcing to get a project off the ground is one thing, but not having any publishers willing to front the money by now is another.

 

[benzy]

yeah, this is three years in the making. the running of the kickstarter may not be top notch, but i'm certain yu is totally aware of what he can and can't do with X amount of money

He's even said as much, and will adjust accordingly to the final budget recieved.

 

[border]

yeah, this is three years in the making. the running of the kickstarter may not be top notch, but i'm certain yu is totally aware of what he can and can't do with X amount of money

Why do you think that? Suzuki hasn't made a game like this in 14 years.

Veterans with much more modern-day experience have had Kickstarter projects that ran well over budget despite having a much smaller scope.

 

[Ithil]

holy...

Shenmue 3 finally getting made after 14 years, and this guy wants them to can it because it's not 100% crowd funded (or something).

 

[Krejlooc]

Can someone explain to me why YS is having difficulty procuring funding for shenmue 3? Dont publishers see the excitement and hype surrounding it? Relying on crowdsourcing to get a project off the ground is one thing, but not having any publishers willing to front the money by now is another.

Shenmue is often cited as a primary reason Sega exited the console industry. It was the largest, flagship products for two Sega systems - the Saturn and the Dreamcast.

 

[bananafactory]

Can someone explain to me why YS is having difficulty procuring funding for shenmue 3? Dont publishers see the excitement and hype surrounding it? Relying on crowdsourcing to get a project off the ground is one thing, but not having any publishers willing to front the money by now is another.

It has a very loud but small community of fans. I don't know if this is accurate but I read that Shenmue 2 only sold 100 000 copies on Xbox with a budget of 15-20 million.

The game is simply too risky for anyone to put significant money into.

 

[ShenmueNextGen]

Shuhei Yoshida about Sony's role in Shenmue 3:

http://www.engadget.com/2015/06/17/an-intimate-chat-with-sony-playstation-shuhei-yoshida/

 

[Krejlooc]

Why do you think that? Suzuki hasn't made a game like this in 14 years.

Veterans with much more modern-day experience have had Kickstarter projects that ran well over budget despite having a much smaller scope.

Running over budget is not the same as having no idea what your budget should be. The very first thing you do in game development - the very first thing - is budget allocation. The idea that Yu Suzuki doesn't know what his budget should be and is just winging it is not at all how any level of professional game development goes.

 

[JonathanNemo]

Can someone explain to me why YS is having difficulty procuring funding for shenmue 3? Dont publishers see the excitement and hype surrounding it? Relying on crowdsourcing to get a project off the ground is one thing, but not having any publishers willing to front the money by now is another.

Suzuki had mentioned in the AMA that game budgets were shrinking and mobile has become a greater focus for gaming today.

Between that climate, and public knowledge that Shenmue was a financial flop, and many of Suzuki's projects since then failing to ship (SEGA Race TV being the only one that did)...

Well, I think that about covers the situation.

 

[Qvoth]

just checked and it's not even 3.5 million yet
no way it's reaching 10 million, i'd be surprised if we can even reach 5

 

[NolbertoS]

I wanna experience the Shenmue 3 experience. Yu Suzuki, I pledge $150 to make it happen, but throw us a bone of Shenmue 1 and 2 HD. I'm sure if Suzuki announces this, he might get more pledgers.

 

[Jacksinthe]

Running over budget is not the same as having no idea what your budget should be. The very first thing you do in game development - the very first thing - is budget allocation. The idea that Yu Suzuki doesn't know what his budget should be and is just winging it is not at all how any level of professional game development goes.

To add to this I'm quite sure Yu has individuals who are knowledgeable about today's financial landscape of production helping him with assigning finances. Yu even mentions several numbers dictating he understands how scope is tied to those finances and what it can produce.

Bad things happen with the best of planning but I feel Yu knows what he is doing and is prepared to handle unkown unknowns.

 

[Theonik]

Can someone explain to me why YS is having difficulty procuring funding for shenmue 3? Dont publishers see the excitement and hype surrounding it? Relying on crowdsourcing to get a project off the ground is one thing, but not having any publishers willing to front the money by now is another.

A few reasons. Publishers are pretty jaded, they see numbers and to them it's a risky investment. How do they assess the viability of such a project?

Then, the IP is owned by SEGA. When Shenmue launched it did really well for SEGA being a flagship title (20% of DC owners bought it which is Skyrim status), but it was overambitious and would require the Dreamcast taking off like the PS2 did to beat their expectations. After that, YS was basically not really allowed to direct much of anything until he left SEGA.

YS has a good relationship with SEGA regardless and was able to secure the IP for this, but to an external backer, being able to own the IP is important if they were to significantly invest in the title, this is one of the reasons why Sony isn't a major backer, their conditions appear to have been that Sony would have to own the IP and it would then be a first party production. It sounds that YS really wanted to be able to keep control of the project so he could deliver the game the fans wanted.

Finally, the longer they waited the less likely it is they get backers. Shenmue was quite famous, but the people in the industry who care enough about it are gradually leaving. Also Yu wanted to make Shenmue III not a Shenmue reboot, so a lot of backers would get cold feet from the idea of a 14 year old sequel. "Does anyone even remember the thing? How many of these people even still play games" And well a number of other factors. It's a hard sell.

 

[Rebel Leader]

I wanna experience the Shenmue 3 experience. Yu Suzuki, I pledge $150 to make it happen, but throw us a bone of Shenmue 1 and 2 HD. I'm sure if Suzuki announces this, he might get more pledgers.

That's up to Sega so... Sega to kickstart shenmue 1&2 port?

 

[Drunkensamurai]

just checked and it's not even 3.5 million yet
no way it's reaching 10 million, i'd be surprised if we can even reach 5

It has slowed down a lot since it was announced.

 

[Spaghetti]

Why do you think that? Suzuki hasn't made a game like this in 14 years.

Veterans with much more modern-day experience have had Kickstarter projects that ran well over budget despite having a much smaller scope.

he may not have made a game like this in 14 years but that doesn't mean he's ignorant. by many accounts he's still someone who is very much clued in to what you have to do to make a game.

 

[Krejlooc]

he may not have made a game like this in 14 years but that doesn't mean he's ignorant. by many accounts he's still someone who is very much clued in to what you have to do to make a game.

also, it hasn't been 14 years since he made he last game. His last, major project was in 2008.

 

[Drunkensamurai]

If Ouya can get 8.5 million, i am sure shemnue 3 can do better. Well i hope it does.

 

[Spaghetti]

Running over budget is not the same as having no idea what your budget should be. The very first thing you do in game development - the very first thing - is budget allocation. The idea that Yu Suzuki doesn't know what his budget should be and is just winging it is not at all how any level of professional game development goes.

additionally, the plan for shenmue was to create engines and tools in an initial investment that could be used throughout a whole game series, and reduce the cost of each instalment after the first.

that is literally the same idea that made yakuza so cheap and easy to make sequels to.

don't doubt how smart this man is.

 

[Chaos17]

Shuhei Yoshida about Sony's role in Shenmue 3:

http://www.engadget.com/2015/06/17/an-intimate-chat-with-sony-playstation-shuhei-yoshida/

You coul've said that earlier

 

[Loudninja]

You coul've said that earlier
gif

Umm they did like the very next day :/

 

[Gestault]

Running over budget is not the same as having no idea what your budget should be. The very first thing you do in game development - the very first thing - is budget allocation. The idea that Yu Suzuki doesn't know what his budget should be and is just winging it is not at all how any level of professional game development goes.

There are obvious variables involved in crowdfunding, but I do wish the stretch goals made clearer what thresholds those variables mean for the game itself. Assuming this has been planned out like it should, that information should exist, and I can't think of a reason not to make that visible to backers. If anything, it could encourage more support. The first few sets of stretch goals read a bit on the vapid side.

 

[akira28]

believe

 

[staticneuron]

This thread and some of the posters.... I mean

The Polygon article is later vindicated, and promises of a sizeable investment from Sony evaporate. Those people mentioned above who made a decision to back or not back weren't misinformed. And now the article is being blamed, because they made more people consider all the risks than back based on riding a wave of unmitigated enthusiasm?

What promises. Sony said they were going to help YSnet. Where does the sizable part come in? no one knew and Sony didn't state. So people started creating stuff and trying to rationalize what we are hearing and now it is ok to attribute created non descript amounts of backing to Sony as if they stated something to that effect?

The problem is, we still have to imagine multiple scenarios precisely because there is still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding how much funding in addition to the KS funds is available to Suzuki.

This happens in most other KS, as many have tirelessly pointed out in multiple threads. The problem is, Shenmue 3 is a sequel to a series that is notorious based on the cost of their development, which were magnitudes higher than the KS total, for which we currently understand is supposed to represent the bulk of the project funding.

People have to understand there are a significant amount of people who didn't cry at the announcement at E3, and haven't contemplated on living on bread and bananas for an extensive period of time so that they can up their contribution to the KS. They simply might find the series interesting, possibly even enjoyed the past entries, but are sceptical based on the gulf in funding that has been guaranteed at this point, based against the past. Suzuki and his team have to continue to work to inform consumers about their vision if they want to continue to have people contribute.

Encouraging people to continue contributing, so that the end result is that much greater, is a fine idea. But telling people to stop talking about the KS funding sources, Sony, etc. is not. It is an interesting topic, and people have shown they want to talk about it. NeoGaf has always been about fostering intelligent conversation about gaming, beyond any other community I've seen. But the people who try to dissuade other from conversing about a topic, because in their eyes it is unproductive, or worse, because they feel it is borne out of malice from some petty console-wars BS may be doing it out of their love for Shenmue, but are losing sight of what Neogaf is about.

1. Kickstarter is to start a project. They have a goal in mind but no company is going to throw out numbers for things they have no control over. So what Yu has stated is exactly what the project needs. Concerns about additional funding afterwards is personal. The way I see it, just like with any kickstarter, you put faith in the project creators that it will get done and you pledge an amount. This incredible amount of concern for outside investors sounds like a successful FUD. To be honest if everyone held this concern than no video games under 4 million would have gotten funded. Almost no company discloses exact deals with partners at the start or during a kickstarter because they may be in flux or scope may change based off of demand.

2. It is disingenuous to imply that people who want to support have to pony up so much money the have to live on bread and bananas when the digital copies are $30 and the disc based pledge is $60

3. No body is telling people to stop talking about. What should not be done is passing off assumptions as fact.

I don't know how much Deep Silver is contributing to Mighty No. 9 (but it getting VA for both languages, a physical in stores release, etc. suggest not an insignificant amount) but we do know Deep Silver is contributing at least about $4.5 million to Bloodstained's budget. That is close to 50%.

1. Do you have a source for that amount contributed by Deep Silver?

2. When you looked at the campaign pages for both projects none of this is listed there. For Mighty no 9, the announcement of that companies involvement was around 20 months after that KS ended.


again ....

Listen just because you don't have all the information (most likely because they have not finalized anything) doesn't mean it is ok for people to MAKE stuff up and then turn around and blame YSnet and Sony for the fact that people decided to make stuff up.

Running over budget is not the same as having no idea what your budget should be. The very first thing you do in game development - the very first thing - is budget allocation. The idea that Yu Suzuki doesn't know what his budget should be and is just winging it is not at all how any level of professional game development goes.

No one is saying that, the issue is with scope. If the KS allows them to change scope then they wouldn't do themselves any favors by trying to push out numbers estimated on a fixed scope. If the go low people might stop contributing soo it dooms the increase in scope. If they produce numbers on the high end scope then people might think it is unattainable and not contribute. People still misunderstood about Star Citizen and their pledge page about how they planned to develop "IF" they did "NOT" hit a target in KS and when they broke past that in spades they changed the order of development because the scope changed.


You cannot treat a kickstarter game with the ability to change scope like one that it is taken up by a publisher. When a dev goes to a publisher they have one scope in mind, and it is up to the publisher to accept, reject it, or to ask for some concessions.

 

[Chaos17]

Umm they did like the very next day :/

Not enough quick for those click bait websites >.>

 

[RustyNails]

A few reasons. Publisters are pretty jaded, they see numbers and to them it's a risky investment. How do they assess the viability of such a project?

Then, the IP is owned by SEGA. When Shenmue launched it did really well for SEGA being a flagship title (20% of DC owners bought it which is Skyrim status), but it was overambitious and would require the Dreamcast taking off like the PS2 did to beat their expectations. After that, YS was basically not really allowed to direct much of anything until he left SEGA.

YS has a good relationship with SEGA regardless and was able to secure the IP for this, but to an external backer, being able to own the IP is important if they were to significantly invest in the title, this is one of the reasons why Sony isn't a major backer, their conditions appear to have been that Sony would have to own the IP and it would then be a first party production. It sounds that YS really wanted to be able to keep control of the project so he could deliver the game the fans wanted.

Finally, the longer they waited the less likely it is they get backers. Shenmue was quite famous, but the people in the industry who care enough about it are gradually leaving. Also Yu wanted to make Shenmue III not a Shenmue reboot, so a lot of backers would get cold feet from the idea of a 14 year old sequel. "Does anyone even remember the thing? How many of these people even still play games" And well a number of other factors. It's a hard sell.

Thanks for the detailed reply. What was Sega planning on doing with the Shenmue IP then? Why not give it to YS? I mean if Sega considers Shenmue to be moneysink, why still hang to it and be all cruddy about it.

 

[Krejlooc]

No one is saying that, the issue is with scope. If the KS allows them to change scope then they wouldn't do themselves any favors by trying to push out numbers estimated on a fixed scope. If the go low people might stop contributing soo it dooms the increase in scope. If they produce numbers on the high end scope then people might think it is unattainable and not contribute. People still misunderstood about Star Citizen and their pledge page about how they planned to develop "IF" they did "NOT" hit a target in KS and when they broke past that in spades they changed the order of development because the scope changed.

You always go in with contingency plans, because of this very reason. I pitched 5 different budgets to my investors for my last project for the very same reason.

Yu Suzuki clarified his scope last night. $2 million is just for the story. $5 million is for the technology he originally envisioned Shenmue 3 using. $10 million is for the full Shenmue 3 experience everyone envisions.

And, all of this is contrary to the claim that "Yu Suzuki doesn't know his budget."

You cannot treat a kickstarter game with the ability to change scope like one that it is taken up by a publisher. When a dev goes to a publisher they have one scope in mind, and it is up to the publisher to accept, reject it, or to ask for some concessions.

This isn't true at all. My budget for my current project has balloon marks at the 1 year milestone and the 1 year 6 month milestone where we will reassess the budget allocation specifically to increase scope if necessary. And this is hardly uncommon.

 

[Skyzard]

Knew it.

Get working on more $3K jacket replicas or something!

Fucking Sony.

 

[border]

Running over budget is not the same as having no idea what your budget should be. The very first thing you do in game development - the very first thing - is budget allocation. The idea that Yu Suzuki doesn't know what his budget should be and is just winging it is not at all how any level of professional game development goes.

The problem on Kickstarter becomes that people lowball their budget or assume a best-case development scenario because they're worried that they will fail if they ask too much. Then development doesn't go as planned and money starts to run out.

To say Suzuki is "winging it" is ridiculous, but I think it's a fair question if he's up-to-date enough on the time and money it takes to generate game and assets in 2015. I would have this consideration about most any Kickstarter game, but especially from someone who has been out of AAA development so long and is working on platforms they haven't utilized before.

 

[Fourth Stooge]

Running over budget is not the same as having no idea what your budget should be. The very first thing you do in game development - the very first thing - is budget allocation. The idea that Yu Suzuki doesn't know what his budget should be and is just winging it is not at all how any level of professional game development goes.

I hate to break it to you but he's winging it. He doesn't even know if the game will be open world. That suggests development is just a glimmer in his eye. Might be open world, might have forklifts, might have bells and whistles. A scaling budget of 2-10 million isn't a budget--it's a fantasy.

It's not much of a pitch for a new game and that's why it's a Kickstarter. There's no discernable plan other than getting funding.

And with his track record for budgeting, I wouldn't bet on his budget allocation skills. Without having to answer to anyone (that we know of), I would not expect a smooth development process or efficient use of funding.

 

[Michael F. Assbender]

Wonder if Polygon will write an article about this new information?

Not. Fucking. Likely.

Scum.

Of course they won't. They're "journalists," not journalists.

 

[Krejlooc]

I hate to break it to you but he's winging it. He doesn't even know if the game will be open world. That suggests development is just a glimmer in his eye. Might be open world, might have forklifts, might have bells and whistles. A scaling budget of 2-10 million isn't a budget--it's a fantasy.

It's not much of a pitch for a new game and that's why it's a Kickstarter. There's no discernable plan other than getting funding.

The plan he has for $2 million is set. The plan he has for each stretch goal is set. He has plans for $5 million and $10 million. He's not winging it. He doesn't know if specific features will be included, because he doesn't know if he'll be funded for that amount yet. But he absolutely knows his budget, and he knows what he can do right now with the money. And as the money grows, he'll already have the budget in place and set for that goal.

To suggest that someone like Yu Suzuki is just asking for money with no idea how it should be used or what the cost associated with his project would be is flat-out crazy.

And with his track record for budgeting, I wouldn't bet on his budget allocation skills. Without having to answer to anyone (that we know of), I would not expect a smooth development process or efficient use of funding.

You mean the track record that includes numerous successfully budgeted R&D projects, along with one that got moved from system to system beyond his control?

 

[Chaos17]

So we've 2 interviews of Sony : where that just kinda confirmed they're just giving a push about the PR. Will these appease detractors, now ? We will see.

 

[Krejlooc]

So we've 2 interviews of Sony : where that just kinda confirmed they're just giving a push about the PR. Will these appease detractors, now ? We will see.

The detractors never had any intent to back at all. It's all feigning moral superiority and outrage culture.

 

[Spaghetti]

I hate to break it to you but he's winging it. He doesn't even know if the game will be open world. That suggests development is just a glimmer in his eye. Might be open world, might have forklifts, might have bells and whistles. A scaling budget of 2-10 million isn't a budget--it's a fantasy.

It's not much of a pitch for a new game and that's why it's a Kickstarter. There's no discernable plan other than getting funding.

And with his track record for budgeting, I wouldn't bet on his budget allocation skills. Without having to answer to anyone (that we know of), I would not expect a smooth development process or efficient use of funding.

he doesn't know? he doesn't have a final budget. it's already been explained to you how a scaled budget works.

you're acting like yu suzuki is some crazy cocaine binging wall street city slicker. he's a mild mannered, soft spoken, middle aged game developer who has been doing this for over 30 years.

 

[staticneuron]

You always go in with contingency plans, because of this very reason. I pitched 5 different budgets to my investors for my last project for the very same reason.

Yu Suzuki clarified his scope last night. $2 million is just for the story. $5 million is for the technology he originally envisioned Shenmue 3 using. $10 million is for the full Shenmue 3 experience everyone envisions.

And, all of this is contrary to the claim that "Yu Suzuki doesn't know his budget."

Iirc, Yu is talking about kickstarter goals and has not stated what the estimated final budget will be. And I agree he most likely has those numbers in mind but it would do him no favors to put them on his KS page. I don't think any high budget game based KS has.

This isn't true at all. My budget for my current project has balloon marks at the 1 year milestone and the 1 year 6 month milestone where we will reassess the budget allocation specifically to increase scope if necessary. And this is hardly uncommon.

So let me get this straight, throwing out an example here, in year and a half your pub will look at your work on a linear controlled scenario then allow you to try to turn that in an open world game? That is common?

I hate to break it to you but he's winging it. He doesn't even know if the game will be open world. That suggests development is just a glimmer in his eye. Might be open world, might have forklifts, might have bells and whistles. A scaling budget of 2-10 million isn't a budget--it's a fantasy.

It's not much of a pitch for a new game and that's why it's a Kickstarter. There's no discernable plan other than getting funding.

And with his track record for budgeting, I wouldn't bet on his budget allocation skills. Without having to answer to anyone (that we know of), I would not expect a smooth development process or efficient use of funding.

As others as stated above he is not winging it. His history in the industry and his connections should show more than that.

 

[Skyzard]

The deal was the kickstarter stage time.

That's Sony's full support.

Pathetic. The guy doesn't even have 10 mill!

 

[Remachinate]

What promises. Sony said they were going to help YSnet. Where does the sizable part come in? no one knew and Sony didn't state. So people started creating stuff and trying to rationalize what we are hearing and now it is ok to attribute created non descript amounts of backing to Sony as if they stated something to that effect?

I'm not trying to slam Sony. I'm trying to defend skeptics of a Kickstarter with messaging issues.

 

[FinalStageBoss]

Yea this isn't getting to 10 million, too bad.

 

[koji kabuto]

Shuhei Yoshida about Sony's role in Shenmue 3:

http://www.engadget.com/2015/06/17/an-intimate-chat-with-sony-playstation-shuhei-yoshida/

Obviously Sega has no plans to fund anything Shenmue related.
So why hold on the IP and not sell to Sony or anyone interested and make money out of it instead of this slow painful death?

 

[Xpliskin]

Where are the conspiracy nutcases now ?

 

[Krejlooc]

Iirc, Yu is talking about kickstarter goals and has not stated what the estimated final budget will be. And I agree he most likely has those numbers in mind but it would do him no favors to put them on his KS page. I don't think any high budget game based KS has.

He stated he needs $2 million at the bare minimum to produce a game. That's his base budget.

So let me get this straight, throwing out an example here, in year and a half your pub will look at your work on a linear controlled scenario then allow you to try to turn that in an open world game? That is common?

Your biggest error here is thinking game development is a linear controlled scenario. But yes, after alpha completion, you typically have budget reallocation to determine content creation going forward. It's a balloon payment schedule. Balloon payments are used specifically for this type of funding, for the very reasons I just outlined.

And yes, it's common.