I agree, for the magnitude of polish and scope of gameplay we are all expecting from Shenmue I can't see this ending well unless a major publisher steps in and takes the reins. The only way this will happen is if Sega just flat out sells the IP (why are they even holding onto it?).
SHENMUE 3 kickstarter (PC/PS4) - FINAL DAY - NEW KS RECORD GO GO GO!
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I agree, for the magnitude of polish and scope of gameplay we are all expecting from Shenmue I can't see this ending well unless a major publisher steps in and takes the reins. The only way this will happen is if Sega just flat out sells the IP (why are they even holding onto it?).
gamerforever
Banned
I'm talking about the official word from ysnet. Logically if you come out and say sony are backing us, the most natural reaction would be to think 'so theres no real need to keep on funding the game anyway'.
I think the campaign needs a bit more coverage to get it to $5 million.
jesus christ no
Crimsonclaw111
Member
I'd rather it taken out back and Old Yeller'd.
Karsticles
Member
If they need $5 million, why is the KS for $2 million?
gamerforever
Banned
For $2 million we will get a game and probably the main bits, but its unlikely to be truly open world - probably an A to B adventure that ties up that particular chapter.
If it doesn't raise $10 million they should just do the decent thing and wrap up the saga once and for all!
Fahrenheit
Banned
because if it's $5m and it fails to reach that, they get no money. if the goal is reasonable and they make it, they still get some money. the idea is to put the minimum at a level that you believe you are guaranteed funding, while still making enough to guarantee your baseline deliverables.
I can't wait for the scene where Ryo gets attacked by his furniture or a room full of giant bugs for no reason.
There's a difference between Sony saying they'll support the production and pay for marketing and 'funding it heavily'.
If you read between the lines, I doubt Sony's contribution to actual development is much more than the moneyhat, which Ysnet are putting toward development, along with many other sources of funding.
I also love SoA. I only played about half of it on the GC and never got to finish it. I've been clamoring for an HD remaster ever since. Hopefully Shenmue 3 will make Sega reconsider.
Basically marketing, PS4 development and an undisclosed amount iirc (correct me if I'm wrong). And let's not forget about the huge PR for the KS that Sony provided as well. They actually featured this at their main conference at the most important gaming expo of the year and right after the biggest announcement in years, when literally millions and millions of gamers where watching. That's HUGE marketing, easily worth millions in itself.
I has has some chances of reaching 8M, but if they want 10M, they need to improve the campaign on a lot of aspects and keep people constantly interested and motivated to pledge.
Also, for those of you worrying that the campaign might be slowing down, this is normal for KS.
Here is how the campaigns for both Mighty No. 9 and Bloodstained played out:
And here is Shenmue's
As you can see, while the dip after the first couple of days is a bit more pronounced, don't forget the campaign had a huge start due to the conference.
As for data, here is how important the first and last days are for these types of campaigns:
Mighty No. 9
Total: $3,845,048
First 4 days: $1,409,662 - 36.6% of total funding
Last 4 days: $1,140,662 - 29.6% of total funding
First 4 days and last 4 days = 66.2% of total funding
Bloodstained
Total: $5,545,992
First 4 days: $1,968,115 - 35.4% of total funding
Last 4 days: $1,822,456 - 32.8% of total funding
First 4 days and last 4 days = 68.2% of total funding
Both of these got more than 65% of their total funding during the first and last 4 days. Shenmue's KS might not get the same on its last days as it did on its first, but they should be able to reach 7.5M or perhaps even 8M.
Shemnue 3
Total: $ ???
First 4 days: $3,278,834
Last 4 days: $ ???
Hope this helps paint a better picture of how this campaign will play out.
El_Cinefilo
Member
That's makes for interesting reading. Although I'm concerned that Shenmue has a smaller but far more passionate fan Base that has largely already contributed and we won't see the same surge at the end as a result.
honestly i'm kind of disappointed that people are spending so much time responding to the backlash and negative misconceptions and i'm wondering if it's merely drawing more attention to the "controversy" and causing fence-sitters to second guess themselves. this is such a cool thing that's happening and it's kind of sad that there's so much perturbation on both sides because of it.
i kind of hoped to see an explosion of excitement and awareness of the series on youtube and other sites beyond a couple of day 1 reaction videos. people should be making retrospectives and articles and videos on what shenmue is, why it's so awesome and trying to get people excited about the whole thing. instead i just see a few videos and discussions on whether or not sony is holding yu suzuki hostage or whatever. it's lame. ignore the people trying to shit in your cheerios and be more positive and productive!
i mean sure, the guys in charge of this campaign really should be doing a lot more, but they're obviously new at this and not everyone can be as experienced and awesome as ben judd. hopefully they pick up the slack and figure out some better incentives soon (as if shenmue 3 isn't incentive enough!)
personally, i upped my pledge to $200 and stuck with the $100 reward tier because i want a better game more than i want a bunch of plastic toys and stuff.
i kind of hoped to see an explosion of excitement and awareness of the series on youtube and other sites beyond a couple of day 1 reaction videos. people should be making retrospectives and articles and videos on what shenmue is, why it's so awesome and trying to get people excited about the whole thing. instead i just see a few videos and discussions on whether or not sony is holding yu suzuki hostage or whatever. it's lame. ignore the people trying to shit in your cheerios and be more positive and productive!
i mean sure, the guys in charge of this campaign really should be doing a lot more, but they're obviously new at this and not everyone can be as experienced and awesome as ben judd. hopefully they pick up the slack and figure out some better incentives soon (as if shenmue 3 isn't incentive enough!)
personally, i upped my pledge to $200 and stuck with the $100 reward tier because i want a better game more than i want a bunch of plastic toys and stuff.
KojiKnight
Member
You make a kickstarter over a month long so you can get those fans to spend at least 2 pay checks worth
El_Cinefilo
Member
But it doesn't charge you until the campaign is over, I can't afford what I pledged at the moment but I've done it because I get paid before the campaign ends.
You make a kickstarter over a month long so you can get those fans to spend at least 2 pay checks worth
This is why I hope they accept post-KS pledges like Star Citizen, Wasteland 2, etc. I'll definitely throw a paycheck every now and then at it over the next two years if they did that.
that's the state of gaming right now, people are just so paranoid about being fucked over that they're jumping at their own shadow
hopefully we start getting some retrospectives and streams later on into the kickstarter. i think the controversy is starting to blow over now, but who knows. we need to large sites actually reporting on the truth rather than thinkpiece conjecture.
El_Cinefilo
Member
You make a kickstarter over a month long so you can get those fans to spend at least 2 pay checks worth
Honestly if it ended a week later I could probably afford to give another $100-$200.I should be relieved it's not longer, I'd end up bankrupting myself!
i know, but they're still not pledging until they've got the money to do so. at least the people i know anyway. i still think july is going to bring a new surge.
Lovely Salsa
Banned
How does it know if you have the money? I mean could I donate a million dollars?
i think there's a cap on donations that large anyway to verify them.
Looking back over some old Shenmue memories, I saw this old thing from Penny-Arcade. I wonder if they're gonna mention it or something at some point. Could bring in a decent amount of gamers if what they did by mentioning Desert Bus is anything to go by... though admittedly that one did kind of directly aid one of their many ventures.
JonathanNemo
Member
I dig. I'm interested to know more myself, the GDC 2014 retrospective really helped bring me up to speed. Also super cool that Suzuki was directly inspired by 80s Sierra games, including some almost forgotten titles like Time Zone, when he was thinking about how to make bigger, story driven games beyond Sega's arcade fare.
And Shenmue makes sense in that framework. As something of an answer to the FF7s and the OoTs that were starting to crop up, only more of a living simulation, more of a kung fu movie, more of an adventure game experience.
Actually I think some more full blown Yu Suzuki career pieces would be wonderful, too. I was showing off one of the Sega's Suzuki inspired works, Planet Harriers, to a friend hyped up for the new Star Fox and it just clicked with them. So much of Sega's back catalog really deserves a chance in the spotlight, and Suzuki's contributions provide a great foundation for that.
[/gushing], back to occasional wiseass.
El_Cinefilo
Member
maquiladora
Member
Honestly, I wish they were more open about the total cost of the project. Yu Suzuki needs to be real with fans if he's going to ask for money. 10 million? 20 million? Star Citizen has done an awesome job of relaying to consumers of what to expect, so I really think Yu needs to reconsider his appraoch to Kickstarter.
he has been clear though
2 mil is the story based experience
5 mil implements some new gameplay ideas
10 mil is the dream amount
he's asked for the minimum on KS to get the game made for fans. the reaction to that has made him disclose how much further they can go with stretch goals.
Thanks for the summary, I'll completely rework my similar statsheet in the coming days but here is a similar breakdown.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fsfu-22G6hGTuZ2fxfIj8GlT0NaRkFlLbpw8TmpAX7M/edit?usp=sharing
Very important to add is the #new backers/day-stat. The cash-flow, while important, I believe is not as important in this stage. Sadly, it is looking a bit worse there but far from bad. I'd rather have 350 new $29 backers to cover for a $10K pledge loss atm for example.
I have some ideas of creating a humble Shenmue-portal and Youtube-videos with maybe some let's play. Problem is of course that I am small fry, even though I've been writing about and reviewed games for 8 years for websites and papers. The potential of possibly attracting even a single new backer is reward enough, if I can find the time. What I will not do though, is to paint the picture more beautiful than it is. In my opinion, the passion of many fans is what speaks most for the Shenmue-series today. While I do like to encourage people whom I know liked Shenmue to pledge I do not like to just tell people to pledge for Kickstarter without a good understanding of what they can expect for their money.
El_Cinefilo
Member
I think this is the kickstarter pages biggest problem, It does a really bad job of selling people who haven't played the first two on it, it doesn't really say what the gameplay is like at all.
airmangataosenai
Member
Heads-Up: Someone cancelled the 10k script prize and it's up for grabs again. Too rich for my blood, I can't go over the $175 level I'm already at.
Thats the math i got but someone said I was wrong
?
Didn't you say 25k per day?
Without accounting for some theoretical set amount of money on the last few days, that would be wrong.
Anyway, my math goes:
8 million minus current funding minus 2.8 million (assuming it can make the first two day's amount in the last two days, which is common for Kickstarters, especially high-profile ones) divided by 24 days (the number of days left counting out the last two).
Actually, it's more like 24 and a half days.
71k average then! From today to the third-to-last day. So far you're on target, but I'm accounting for something that hasn't actually happened.
If we expect the last 4 days to make about as much as the first four, then the average becomes even lower. You'd need only 59k per day from today to the fifth-to-last day to reach 8 million.
That won't happen. In every other KS campaign Paypal was always a very small contribution to the final value of the campaign funding. This Kickstarter is already a success by any measure. The 10M goal is unreachable.
El_Cinefilo
Member
openrob
Member
I rekon if they start releasing some more info, like concept art and discussion about the game it might help. (non spoilery stuff obviously!)
I agree. I don't see the campaign going past 5-6M, which would be an immense success.
I am also ok with a smaller, more focused game. It would be great if Suzuki could continue the franchise in a more episodic format, with small games that each implement one chapter and are successful enough to fund the next entry.
But Ryo could hang out with David Bowie and Willem Dafoe.
http://youtu.be/uzbKjSgvcdw
http://youtu.be/B4XZRe7abTs
Dusk Golem
A 21st Century Rockefeller
I think by the end it'll make it to $5 million.
I doubt it'll make it to $10 million, unfortunately.
Keep in mind the most funded game of all time on Kickstarter, Bloodstained, earned $5,545,991, which places it as the 8th most funded thing ever on Kickstarter. and there's only three Kickstarter projects ever to get over $10 million in any category.
I doubt it'll make it to $10 million, unfortunately.
Keep in mind the most funded game of all time on Kickstarter, Bloodstained, earned $5,545,991, which places it as the 8th most funded thing ever on Kickstarter. and there's only three Kickstarter projects ever to get over $10 million in any category.
Well that's a stat for you, let's hope........
Damn. I love the colors in the first Shenmue. So good and rich.
I can't go above the $300 pledge right now, but probably got a friend to throw in $60-100 soon enough. $29 is a hell of a reward w the digital code, for anyone with a PS4 who might buy it when it releases, or is curious about the series. Eyeing $3.5 million tomorrow.
I can't go above the $300 pledge right now, but probably got a friend to throw in $60-100 soon enough. $29 is a hell of a reward w the digital code, for anyone with a PS4 who might buy it when it releases, or is curious about the series. Eyeing $3.5 million tomorrow.
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