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[Hero of Legend]

Do folks really expect NX announcements at TGS? DQX and XI were shocking cases, not a sign of a trend or anything.

I wish so much we would get some, but that's not realistic at all sadly.

 

[Vena]

I'm not sure how many NX announcements we're actually going to get though. Seeing as how it doesn't exist yet. There are always a few games announced to be in development for a next gen console before release but I don't expect it to be more than a handful if any at this point until NX is confirmed.

In this TGS? Nothing much.

By early next year? That's when I expect us to start seeing more and more PS4/NX or 3DS/NX or just outright NX announcements.

This is also why I generally keep silent on any predictions, because a lot is going to or has the potential to go "tits up" in the next year or so. Its going to be a rare time (for Japan) where a new console system/family comes to market with nothing but its own predecessor having any real market strength or hold. It, obviously, doesn't hurt that Nintendo has nurtured some of, if not the strongest, brands in Japan at this point and I expect some of them to come out swinging at launch.

Do folks really expect NX announcements at TGS? DQX and XI were shocking cases, not a sign of a trend or anything.

I wish so much we would get some, but that's not realistic at all sadly.

No. I was speaking purely long term future of early 2016.

 

[Nirolak]

Do folks really expect NX announcements at TGS? DQX and XI were shocking cases, not a sign of a trend or anything.

I wish so much we would get some, but that's not realistic at all sadly.

I think there will be some NX announcements in the sense that there will be multiplatform games announced that also eventually appear on NX.

I don't think anything will explicitly be announced for NX.

 

[ZhugeEX]

No. I was speaking purely long term future of early 2016.

Ah ok, I thought you were talking about TGS specifically.

Still, I don't see many announcements happening until NX is confirmed by Nintendo.

Once NX is confirmed we may find out previously announced games will be coming to NX. But I don't think we'll see another DQ11 moment where they say it's coming to NX before the console has been announced.

 

[Hero of Legend]

I think there will be some NX announcements in the sense that there will be multiplatform games announced that also eventually appear on NX.

I don't think anything will explicitly be announced for NX.

Maybe, I just won't assume since they may never show up ever.

Also depends on when they release also, MAYBE late 2016/2017 titles are likely, but before the system's launch, I doubt it. When is DQX PS4 launching? DQXI might be out before, but honestly, if SE hadn't said anything, I would've likely wrote off DQX and XI for NX as they'd likely be out prior, and DQX is too old, I dunno. XD

 

[sörine]

No NX announcements at TGS. We probably won't see the big JP publishers making public commitments until E3.

 

[Nirolak]

Maybe, I just won't assume since they may never show up ever.

Also depends on when they release also, MAYBE late 2016/2017 titles are likely, but before the system's launch, I doubt it. When is DQX PS4 launching?

At TGS there usually are a number of games that are """announced""" that aren't even unveiled until the next TGS. Those were more along the lines of what I was thinking. Presumably all of them would be announced only for PlayStation (and maybe Xbox/PC, but that won't happen at TGS itself) though.

But yes in general I wouldn't expect a lot even being potential options. Japan is often very slow to pick up new platforms. There could be zero. There could even only be like 20 games released in the entire first year of the system at the rate Japan picks up platforms now.

 

[Vena]

Ah ok, I thought you were talking about TGS specifically.

Still, I don't see many announcements happening until NX is confirmed by Nintendo.

Once NX is confirmed we may find out previously announced games will be coming to NX. But I don't think we'll see another DQ11 moment where they say it's coming to NX before the console has been announced.

Well, yes, hence early 2016.

But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if a lot of the multiplat games or games built on Unreal even if only announced for one console now (and releasing in mid-to-late 2016) end up with peculiar X marks on their release platforms. And I'm obviously not talking about the Xbox.

Only other game I could see get a premature "here it is" tease is MH5 given the ongoing ties between Nintendo and Capcom with the series (it just appeared in AC:HH of all things).

 

[Ryng_tolu]

NX annunced are not gonna happen this year...

 

[ZhugeEX]

I'm looking forward tot the surprise Dragon Quest Heroes 4 announcement.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

PS4 is gonna sell 18-20k next Media Create, maybe more.
It got a nice boost on Amazon.

 

[Ōkami]

I'm looking forward tot the surprise Dragon Quest Heroes 4 announcement.

Dream bigger.

This TGS sounds damm promising. Really excited for it

Nier
Project Setsuna
Final Fantasy XV
Dragon Quest Heroes 11
Dragon Quest Builders
Persona 5
Level 5 ?

and of course Sony Japan with TLG; Gravity Rush and their big budget Japano RPG

 

[horuhe]

Nice post as always, Nirolak.

I really can't see NX announcements at TGS. When Nintendo decides when to release some information, maybe some developers start to announce some info as well.

BTW, Square-Enix didn't say anything about Bravely Third, recently?

 

[Vena]

Nice post as always, Nirolak.

I really can't see NX announcements at TGS. When Nintendo decides when to release some information, maybe some developers start to announce some info as well.

BTW, Square-Enix didn't say anything about Bravely Third, recently?

At this point, you'd be better off hoping for Nintendo announcing Bravely Third than SE.

 

[Nirolak]

Nice post as always, Nirolak.

I really can't see NX announcements at TGS. When Nintendo decides when to release some information, maybe some developers start to announce some info as well.

BTW, Square-Enix didn't say anything about Bravely Third, recently?

It sounds like that team will likely go on to do something else.

Project Setsuna will probably be their throwback brand instead.

 

[BlowoverKing]

Holy crap, 19

Spoiler

(give or take a zillion)

of those 27 games are either exclusive to or have a Vita Sku. Beyond Dragon Quest Builders, God Eater Resurrection, Attack on Titan, Summon Night 6 and maybe Digimon most won't even reach 100k but the amount of software support for Vita stays strong.

 

[Vena]

Holy crap, 19

Spoiler

(give or take a zillion)

of those 27 games are either exclusive to or have a Vita Sku. Beyond Dragon Quest Builders, God Eater Resurrection, Attack on Titan, Summon Night 6 and maybe Digimon most won't even reach 100k but the amount of software support for Vita stays strong.

Well someone has to support the thing and its fans because papa certainly isn't bothering.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Road to TGS™.

Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3
Platforms: 3DS, Release Date: Unknown
Publisher: Square Enix, Developer: Unknown, Genre: Monster Collection RPG
Notes: A long standing monster collection and sequel to the popular Joker line from the Nintendo DS, this is Square Enix continuing to release retail entries in the series despite the extreme success of the mobile game. Whether they'll try to go all in on it in a post Yokai Watch world or try to simply maintain their normal sales volume remains to be scene.

Great post as always, but should that last word above be "seen"?


Mario Maker is slowly rising...

[WiiU] Super Mario Maker - 24pt

 

[Pennywise83]

Is there any word on how Tokyo Xanadu is performing in pre-orders? It seems it's not getting much attention - and it might underperform as Ray Gigant. It is interesting to see the performance of this game since it shows how publishers are trying to get on the Persona-wagon, by Person-ifying their series.

 

[Moor-Angol]

PS4 is gonna sell 18-20k next Media Create, maybe more.
It got a nice boost on Amazon.

rise up your prediction

PS4 got a 40k bump from ashes when Ground Zero was released, and actually PS4 is constantly over 12-13k due to BloodBorne campaign

so 40k is a doable target in my opinion

 

[KHlover]

Speaking of TGS...do we have any info on Ys 8? Will it be at TGS? I need my Ys fix

 

[Oregano]

I don't think we'll see much NX support announced any time soon. JP developers have been really slow to adopt new hardware and they're still trying to find their footing on the PS4.

I suspect a lot of early NX support will just be games like MH Stories and Snack World being cross-gen. I think there's a good chance the NX version of DQXI is the 3DS version.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

rise up your prediction

PS4 got a 40k bump from ashes when Ground Zero was released, and actually PS4 is constantly over 12-13k due to BloodBorne campaign

so 40k is a doable target in my opinion

... i talk about the week BEFORE Metal Gear, not the week of release.....

 

[Mpl90]

Hatsune Miku: Project Diva X confirmed. PS4/Vita
They're back to the spread release of F
Vita SKU: March 2016
PS4 SKU: Fall 2016

Possible that they saw what happened with sales of F2 coming from F, and they thought it would be better to go back to the different releases for both versions.

 

[Busaiku]

I actually wonder if it will help or hurt at this point.

 

[Nirolak]

I don't think we'll see much NX support announced any time soon. JP developers have been really slow to adopt new hardware and they're still trying to find their footing on the PS4.

I suspect a lot of early NX support will just be games like MH Stories and Snack World being cross-gen. I think there's a good chance the NX version of DQXI is the 3DS version.

If the best the NX can receive is up ports of sub-2007 hardware feature set portable games they're going to have a very, very sad generation ahead of them everywhere but Japan.

 

[Chris1964]

YSO predictions

Week 36, 2015 (Aug 31 - Sep 6)

[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain < 350k
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain < 150k
[3DS] Dragon Quest VIII < 130k

 

[ZhugeEX]

[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain < 350k
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain < 150k

Interesting.

Very interesting.

I wonder what MGSV will do on PS4 LTD though.

 

[Chris1964]

Average prediction for PS4 is close to 300k, PS3 the same 150k.

 

[Pennywise83]

Opening should be on par with previous mainline installments, showing the consistency of this IP throughout years and platforms.

First week (Famitsu):

MGS: 316k
MGS2: 457k
MGS3: 487k
MGS4: 476k
MGSPW: 446k

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

Looking good MGSV!
Wonder what they will predict for Mario Maker?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Metal Gear Solid V japanese commercial

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YN470wKT9PM

WTF!!??

Kojima approves

YSO predictions

Week 36, 2015 (Aug 31 - Sep 6)

[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain < 350k
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain < 150k
[3DS] Dragon Quest VIII < 130k

Thats quite the gap between PS4/3.

 

[duckroll]

YSO predictions

Week 36, 2015 (Aug 31 - Sep 6)

[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain < 350k
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain < 150k
[3DS] Dragon Quest VIII < 130k

A major Japanese crossgen title with a 7:3 sales ratio favoring PS4? Is it finally happening?!

 

[Vena]

A major Japanese crossgen title with a 7:3 sales ratio favoring PS4? Is it finally happening?!

The world is coming to an end!

 

[Oregano]

If the best the NX can receive is up ports of sub-2007 hardware feature set portable games they're going to have a very, very sad generation ahead of them everywhere but Japan.

Considering how many games got delayed and/or cancelled early in the 3DS' life and how developers handled the Vita/PS4 transitions I think it's a pretty plausible (& horrible) scenario.

It'll have some smaller exclusives and probably pick up a few Vita games but nothing massive.

 

[madstarr12]

Good bye PS3 then.

 

[Eolz]

YSO predictions

[3DS] Dragon Quest VIII < 130k

Doesn't that seem pretty low for DQVIII 3DS?

Good bye PS3 then.

you mean

 

[duckroll]

Doesn't that seem pretty low for DQVIII 3DS?

That's for the second week.

 

[Ōkami]

Doesn't that seem pretty low for DQVIII 3DS?

That's the second week.

Seem on point to me.

 

[sörine]

I suspect a lot of early NX support will just be games like MH Stories and Snack World being cross-gen. I think there's a good chance the NX version of DQXI is the 3DS version.

That's a good point. Lots of us are expecting PS4/Vita/Wii U ports to NX but upgraded 3DS conversions could be a big thing too. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see staple 3DS franchises like Yokai Watch and Monster Hunter going 3DS/NX cross-gen in the platform's early going, sort of like how PS-centric series like Yakuza and MGS were playing it safe doing both PS3/PS4.

I also wonder though if this might slow generational transition for NX? Looking back 3DS didn't really have to worry about that as 3rd parties dumped DS for 3DS seemingly right away.

 

[madstarr12]

you mean

Nope. It was fun seeing PS3 versions of games selling more than PS4 versions of games.

 

[duckroll]

Unless word of mouth gets really bad (not likely) MGSV should sell around 800k LTD, or more. MGS2 and PW both managed ~790k, while MGS3 managed to surpass 800k. I think MGSV has the potential to as well. Taking that into account, if the final ratio between PS4 and PS3 end up being something like 3:1, MGSV will easily become the best selling PS4 title in Japan with ~600k. That's both a great achievement for MGSV, and a sad reminder of how far this sort of console gaming has fallen in Japan. It's pretty amazing for Nintendo that Splatoon will probably be able to outsell MGSV on PS4+PS3 combined.... on the WiiU... in Japan.

 

[Oregano]

That's a good point. Lots of us are expecting PS4/Vita/Wii U ports to NX but upgraded 3DS conversions could be a big thing too. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see staple 3DS franchises like Yokai Watch and Monster Hunter going 3DS/NX cross-gen in the platform's early going, sort of like how PS-centric series like Yakuza and MGS were playing it safe doing both PS3/PS4.

I also wonder though if this might slow generational transition for NX? Looking back 3DS didn't really have to worry about that as 3rd parties dumped DS for 3DS seemingly right away.

The bolded is true but when the 3DS hit a roadblock early on we saw a lot of games get cancelled or delayed. We didn't see anything like that with the Vita and PS4 when it was clear they were underperforming.

 

[Pennywise83]

That's a good point. Lots of us are expecting PS4/Vita/Wii U ports to NX but upgraded 3DS conversions could be a big thing too. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see staple 3DS franchises like Yokai Watch and Monster Hunter going 3DS/NX cross-gen in the platform's early going, sort of like how PS-centric series like Yakuza and MGS were playing it safe doing both PS3/PS4.

I also wonder though if this might slow generational transition for NX? Looking back 3DS didn't really have to worry about that as 3rd parties dumped DS for 3DS seemingly right away.

It depends. Portings of multi-million sellers might accelerate the transition rate. 3DS didn't have a big third party release untile Monster Hunter 3G in December, almost a year after launch.

The bolded is true but when the 3DS hit a roadblock early on we saw a lot of games get cancelled or delayed. We didn't see anything like that with the Vita and PS4 when it was clear they were underperforming.

I kept reading this story but which games got actually cancelled because of 3DS initial poor sales? Most of them were cancelled because of external reasons, see Mega Man Legends, Chocobo Legends or DJ Hero. Furthermore, many games (One Piece, Tales of the Abyss, Dead or Alive) were delayed because of the March 2011 earthquake.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Unless word of mouth gets really bad (not likely) MGSV should sell around 800k LTD, or more. MGS2 and PW both managed ~790k, while MGS3 managed to surpass 800k. I think MGSV has the potential to as well. Taking that into account, if the final ratio between PS4 and PS3 end up being something like 3:1, MGSV will easily become the best selling PS4 title in Japan with ~600k. That's both a great achievement for MGSV, and a sad reminder of how far this sort of console gaming has fallen in Japan. It's pretty amazing for Nintendo that Splatoon will probably be able to outsell MGSV on PS4+PS3 combined.... on the WiiU... in Japan.

How is it a sad reminder when MGSV sells on par with previous entries in the series?

 

[Eolz]

That's for the second week.

That's the second week.

Seem on point to me.

Lol my bad, I'm dumb

Nope. It was fun seeing PS3 versions of games selling more than PS4 versions of games.

Different reason then, I see

 

[bluedawgs]

The second week drop is probably going to be sooooo heavy on the PS4

 

[duckroll]

How is it a sad reminder when MGSV sells on par with previous entries in the series?

MGSV sells on par with previous entries, but is now the best the console has to offer in terms of sales by a country mile. That wasn't the case even on the PS3. How is it not sad?

 

[Jarod McChicken]

Judging by the Comgnet trend, 350K seems to be the most optimistic scenario for MGS V PS4, but as for the split it's pretty clear from the beginning that the PS4 version will be far above the PS3 version. February was too early to see DQ Heroes perform better on PS4 but that's over now, I can't see anymore major game selling better on PS3.

 

[Spiegel]

It depends. Portings of multi-million sellers might accelerate the transition rate. 3DS didn't have a big third party release untile Monster Hunter 3G in December, almost a year after launch.

It had one at launch. A Layton exclusive game was still a big release back in 2011.

For comparison, ~4 years after the launch of the system no third party publisher have released a franchise that big on Vita. Closest were God Eater 2 and FFX, but shared with another system.